Archive for the ‘PS3’ Category

Weekly News Roundup (16 October 2011)

Sunday, October 16th, 2011

Welcome to yet another edition of the WNR. Another rather quiet week news wise, so this would otherwise be a short WNR, except I might spend a bit of time talking about the latest NPD results later on in the gaming section.

Copyright

We start with copyright news as we usually do, and we start with a quite unusual story, one that I still don’t really know what to make of.

PC gaming piracy is a big problem, I think everyone can at least acknowledge this fact (whether ever more intrusive DRM is the solution to the problem, I think, is where the debate is at the moment), but if the goal of anti-piracy is to increase revenue, and intrusive DRM doesn’t seem to be producing, why not try something else?

Vigilant Defender Questionnaire

A sample result from the Vigilant Defender questionnaire, which shows that DRM not only does not really help encourage pirates to buy games, it may even drive them to pirate in the first place

Except, I probably wouldn’t try what startup anti-piracy firm, Vigilant Defender, has tried – to actually help the spread of pirated content. Yes, you heard right, the first step in Vigilant Defender’s experiment is to actually help seed a leaked beta version of the hit game, Deus Ex Human Revolution. The second step is slightly tricky, as the version of the beta they seeded was slightly modified to drop out of the game after the first few levels, and direct users to an online questionnaire, in which they were asked questions about why they decided to pirate the game. While data collection is essential to solving the piracy problem, especially given the industry’s often biased “research” on the matter, the key question asked of gamers was “what would you be willing to pay for this game”. Not only will the answer to this particular question prove useful in finding out just why people pirate, and what price point can influence the same people to go legit, Vigilant took this one step further and proceeded to offer downloaders the opportunity to buy the full game at a price determined by average answer to this particular question. And amazingly, 8% of all those who downloaded the modified leaked beta actually went on to buy the game, at the user voted average price of $24.99 (half of the retail price) and that’s actually quite a high rate of return for games, especially when the target demographic is often described by the industry as “criminals” and “freeloaders”.

In my opinion, what Vigilant Defender tried to do was very clever, even if they went about it perhaps in too much of a roundabout way. What they’re actually advocating is a system where users vote for the price they want to play, and where pirated versions of games actually become demos of sorts. The gaming industry may not want to believe it, but a lot of gamers do use pirated games as an extended demo, and many, I’m not saying all (or even anything close to a majority), to end up buying the full version if they like the game. Game publishers, on the other than, would rather prefer people buy games they don’t like by making sure they can’t test it fully before they buy it, and perhaps that’s how it used to work before Internet piracy became ubiquitous, this kind of business model no longer works. But on the other hand, by offering downloaders cheaper version of games, it’s perhaps encouraging downloads, and this kind of distribution model would be a hard sell for game publishers. But there’s definitely something here, and perhaps a little bit of tweaking could bring us a new distribution model that takes advantage of P2P networks such as BitTorrent to not only distribute the games, but to promote them. Imagine if games came with a thin layer of unobtrusive DRM that simply nagged users to buy the game from time to time, a DRM so not annoying that release groups don’t even bother to have it (so it remains in the pirated versions floating around the net). Users would then be given an offer to “upgrade” their pirated version to the full legit version for a discounted price, but the caveat is that their save games/profiles would no longer be compatible with the full version unless they pay the full price, or some kind of incentive that still makes buying games at full price an attractive proposition. And if you want pirates to help you sell games, then let them join some kind of commission based affiliate program, where for each downloader that “upgrades”, the seeder would get a small commission for their “help”.

The even easier alternative is to lower game prices and improve services for legitimate customers, so that piracy becomes more trouble than its worth.

For Vigilant Defender though, they have a slight problem on their hands at the moment since this Deux Ex experiment was not actually approved by the publishers of the game, Square Enix, which could land the anti-piracy company in a bit of bother with anti-piracy laws.

Bad news for Australians lately on the copyright front. Only a couple of weeks ago, we got our first taste of mass copyright lawsuits, and this week, our government signalled changes to our existing copyright law which would make it even easier for mass copyright lawsuits to happen. Namely, the Attorney-General wants to make it easier for rights holders (or agents of them) to match IP addresses to real identifies, by “streamlining” the legal process. In other words, due process has to go out the window to make Hollywood and the RIAA happy. Even the idea of a ‘graduated response’ system was mentioned, at a conference sponsored by the copyright lobby, of course. Still, there were some other proposed changes that were positive, such as extending “safe harbour” to protect more types of Internet businesses, rather than just ISPs – search engines like Google and Bing will benefit the most with this proposed change. But as long as politicians still continue to believe that a single IP address is evidence enough of a “crime”, and that the “crime” itself is costing the creative industries insane amounts of money and jobs, then politicians will always be on the side of the copyright lobby, made more likely by the uneven spreading around of lobbying cash from both sides of the issue.

High Definition

In HD/3D news, this week could prove an important one for advocates of managed copy, who want legal alternatives to “ripping”. UltraViolet has been talked about quite a lot, and this week, we finally get our first taste of this “in the cloud” based managed copy system. Unfortunately, the taste is not quite palatable.

Green Lantern UltraViolet via Flixster

UltraViolet from Warner Bros. is being distributed via Flixster, and it isn't a very convenient user experience

Warner Bros. released Horrible Bosses and Green Lantern with UltraViolet digital copy included, but the way Warner has decided to deploy UltraViolet is the biggest problem at the moment. The current WB process requires users to enter in a 12-digit redemption code online, which in itself is annoying, and then users will have to sign up to Flixster, and then install the Flixster app on the device they wish to view the UltraViolet copy. And it’s all wrapped up in various layers of DRM, as you would expect.

And as WB owns Flixster, and to add to the problem, when other studios release their version of UltraViolet, they will use their own distribution network. So right now, if you asked me on which devices an UltraViolet digital copy works on, I can’t tell you, because it will depend on each studio, and this is absolutely the wrong way to go about it. For UltraViolet to be viable, I think it really has to either tie in with iTunes, NetFlix, Amazon or one of the existing players in video distribution, or all the studios have to come together and come up with a single distribution method, with all of the major devices supported (the iDevices, Android system, game consoles and Blu-ray players, at least). And then, streamline the process so it’s as simple as scanning a QR code, or just a matter of inserting the UltraViolet Blu-ray or DVD into a UV compatible player – none of this 12 digit code nonsense, or having to figure out each studio’s UltraViolet system and having to have an account for each.

A two parter Sony related story, the first part goes here in the HD section I suppose. Sony has had to issue a massive recall/repair for 1.6 million LCD TVs they produced since 2008, apparently due to a fire risk in a faulty component. It’s not exactly what the company needs at the moment, but the “good” news so far is that there haven’t been any reports of actual injuries, and that the damage so far has been restricted to the TV set itself.

GamingLess costly for Sony, financial wise, but perhaps more costly in terms of image is the news that a further 93,000 Sony online network accounts have been “hacked”, in the latest security breach.

Fortunately for Sony, the breach which led to hackers gaining access to 93,000 accounts on the Sony Entertainment Network (SEN), PlayStation Network (PSN) and Sony Online Entertainment (SOE) networks appears to have originated elsewhere. According to Sony, hackers managed to source the email/password combinations for an unspecified (non Sony) online service, and proceeded to use the same login combination to try their luck on the PSN, and managed to get access to the 93,000 accounts. Sony have disabled 33,000 SOE accounts, while have forced password changes for the rest. Sony says that credit card info was not accessed during this attack, but personal information may have been.

While Sony is right that the data breach occurred elsewhere, the security issue here still lies with Sony, because allowing hackers to launch this type of massive attack can easily be prevented. Simply limiting failed login attempts from any individual IP address or range, which is standard practice, could have prevented the 93,000 accounts from being accessed. And some kind of “CAPTCHA” system, or human verification, would have prevented the hacker’s bot based login attempts. Both of these are common techniques used to prevent dictionary based attacks. And once again, it took Sony days to spot the unusual activity on their networks, when it really should be a matter of hours if not minutes.

NPD Game Console Total US Sales Figures (as of September 2011)

Life to date Xbox 360 sales in the US (in green) is catching up to Wii sales (in blue), but the PS3 (red) languishes in third place

But while Sony’s security problems have been highlighted recently, it doesn’t seem to have seriously affected the fortunes of the PS3, as price, as always, seems to be the main driving factor behind sales. So Sony’s $50 price cut to the PS3 in the middle of August has seen PS3 sales rise, although as the September 2011 NPD US video games sales analysis shows, the rise was not big enough to really endanger the Xbox 360’s position as the best selling console in the US. The gap has closed, however, between the PS3 and the Xbox 360, while the gap between the Wii and every other console seems to be widening. If the gap remains as big as it was during September, the Xbox 360 is set to overtake the Wii as the best selling home based console of this generation (in the US) within 39 month – but it will be well after the Wii U is introduced, so that’s what Nintendo are holding on to at the moment.

Alright, that’s enough for this week I think. Hopefully more of a newsworthy week this next one, and I have a feeling it will. Have a good one.

Game Consoles – September 2011 NPD Sales Figure Analysis

Saturday, October 15th, 2011

Welcome to the September 2011 edition of our regular NPD US video game sales analysis, by my calculation, the 53rd edition of this feature. In this feature, we look at video game sales, both hardware and software, for the month of September 2011 based on data collected by the NPD. The PS3 price cut took place half way through August, but in the September data, we now having a full month worth of PS3 sales at the now $50 lower price point, so we can finally see if it was able to beat the Xbox 360, which it might have done in August if the price cut had taken place a bit earlier. But the Xbox 360 has an ace up its sleeve this month, as we see a new version of one of its major exclusive franchises, Gears of War. Read on to find out who wins September.

As NPD no longer releases full hardware sales figures, this feature is reliant on the game companies, namely Microsoft, Nintendo and Sony, to release their set of figures and based on “statement math” (that is, arithmetically calculate missing figures based on statements made). For September 2011, these are the statements made by the gaming companies:

  • Nintendo reveals the Wii sold 240,000 units, with 260,000 3DS consoles, and 145,000 DS (via PR email)
  • Microsoft revealed 438,000 Xbox 360 hardware units sold, with 42% of the home based console market share (source)
  • Sony did not reveal exact figures, but said that the PS3 hardware sale increase 20% year-on-year (Sony statement, via Senior Director of Corporate Communications at SCEA, Patrick Seybold)

Unfortunately for this month, Microsoft and Sony’s statements do conflict with each other a bit. Using Microsoft’s statement, PS3 sales can be deduced to be 364,857 units, but according to Sony’s own statement, the figure is more like 374,400 (20% more than September 2010’s 312,000). Obviously, there are rounding errors from all the company’s statements, so giving Sony the benefit of the doubt, we’ll presume the PS3 sales figure for September 2011 is the higher 374,400.

And so the figures for US sales in September 2011 are below, ranked in order of number of sales (September 2010 figures also shown, including percentage change):

  • Xbox 360: 438,000 (Total: 28.8 million; September 2010: 483,989 – down 9.5%)
  • PS3: 374,400 (Total: 17.7 million; September 2010: 312,000 – up 20%)
  • Wii: 240,000 (Total: 36.6 million; September 2010: 254,000 – down 5.5%)
NPD September 2011 Game Console US Sales Figures

NPD September 2011 Game Console US Sales Figures

NPD Game Console Total US Sales Figures (as of September 2011)

NPD Game Console Total US Sales Figures (as of September 2011)

My prediction from last month was:

I think the Xbox 360 will still come out as the top selling console for September 2011, mainly due to ‘Gear of War 3′, but the PS3 will definitely come closer than it did this month, and with ‘Resistance 3′, it too might benefit from a platform exclusive. The Wii will be third. Games wise, ‘Gear of War 3′ looks set to be a top seller, despite being a platform exclusive release. ‘Resistance 3′, on the other hand, doesn’t look to have the same effect, although it will still sell well. Combined platforms sales may even push ‘Dead Island’ to the top of the charts.

I got the hardware ordering spot on, although it really wasn’t that hard to predict what was going to happen. The PS3 did get closer to the Xbox 360 sales, but it’s clear now that the 360 is now the dominant console in the US, and not even a PS3 price cut can affect its status it seems (unless that price cut was a more substantial $100, for example). For the game predictions, Madden was actually the top selling title, followed by Gears of War 3. And ‘Dead Island’ did manage to put its way high up in the charts, in 3rd place. Resistance 3, on the other hand, only finished 7th, not the worst result, but the average critical response to the game may have had some effect.

So the Xbox 360 continues its winning streak, by not only becoming the dominant home based console, but it’s also the best selling console for September, period. Looking at the life to date sales numbers, the Xbox 360 continues to pull ahead of the PS3, and continues to get closer to the Wii, to the point where the difference between the Wii and 360 numbers is actually less now than the difference between the 360 and PS3 numbers. Because of the Xbox 360’s dominance with multi-platform releases in North America, namely that if the same game is on multiple platforms, the Xbox 360 version is usually the most popular, the hit releases planned for the next few month starting with Batman: Arkham City and Battlefield 3 next month, and MW3 and Elder Scrolls V: Skyrim in November, will all benefit the Xbox 360 more. The it appears that the 360’s exclusives, such as Halo and Gears of War, appear to be far more popular than the PS3’s line up, including ‘Resistance’ this month.

But you cannot say the PS3 performed badly for September – after all, it was the only console to see year-on-year growth, but just like how the other consoles found it difficult to compete with the PS2 in the last generation, the PS3 is having a hard time trying to catch up to the Xbox 360 (and Wii, for the early parts anyway) in this generation (although the gap between the consoles is much less pronounced than the last generation). Taking off my fanboy hat for a moment, the truth is that both the PS3 and Xbox 360 are excellent game consoles with excellent game line ups and fantastic multimedia capabilities. Each console has their own pros and cons, and thanks to the Xbox 360’s head-start, the Wii’s (then) innovative control system, and the PS3’s Blu-ray drive, we now have a much more balanced set of competitors, and that can only be good for gamers, who should consider themselves lucky to be able to enjoy so many great games in the last few years.

The Wii, right now, is the only loser, but it’s not something Nintendo are unaware of, and the Wii-U will set to address many of the shortcomings of the Wii console, but also maintain Nintendo’s reputation for producing fun, family based games.

For game sales, Madden’s delay from August to September allowed it to rule the roost for the month, but Gears of War 3 would be considered the best selling Xbox 360 game for the month, the Madden ranking includes all platform sales. Dead Island was the only original franchise in the top 10, and it did well to come in 3rd, but it also shows that, unlike movies, gaming sequels are actually welcomed by gamers, and usually are huge improvements on the original, not just an opportunity to cash-in (take note Hollywood). FIFA’s high ranking highlights the growing popularity of “soccer” games, beating NHL 11, something it didn’t do last year this time. And a 10th place for Warhammer 40,000: Space Marine is a good result for the franchise. Electronic Arts are the real winners, with 3 of the top 10 titles belonging to them, and the all important first place too. Here’s the full software sales chart for September:

  1. Madden NFL 12 (EA, Xbox 360, PS3, Wii, PS2, PSP)
  2. Gears of War 3 (Microsoft, Xbox 360)
  3. Dead Island (Deep Silver, Xbox 360, PS3, PC)
  4. FIFA 12 (EA, Xbox 360, PS3, Wii, PS2, PSP, 3DS)
  5. NHL 12 (EA, Xbox 360, PS3)
  6. Deus Ex: Human Revolution (Square Enix, Xbox 360, PS3, PC)
  7. Resistance 3 (Sony, PS3)
  8. Lego Star Wars III: The Clone Wars (LucasArts, Wii, NDS, Xbox 360, 3DS, PS3, PSP, PC)
  9. Call of Duty: Black Ops (Activision Blizzard, Xbox 360, PS3, Wii, NDS,PC)
  10. Warhammer 40,000: Space Marine (THQ, Xbox 360, PS3, PC)

Time to make my usual prediction. I think the hardware situation will remain largely the same. Games wise, Batman: Arkham City and Battlefield 3 go head to head, with Forza 4 on the Xbox 360 possible making the top 10 as well as a platform exclusive.

See you next month.

Weekly News Roundup (25 September 2011)

Sunday, September 25th, 2011

Welcome to yet another edition of the WNR. Hope you’ve had a good week. It was mainly an uneventful week for me, except my graphics card broke early on the in the week, and so I had found the perfect excuse to do a little bit of upgrading. Faced with restrictions in budget, card length (my old Antec Sonata Designer case would only fit a card 23cm/9″ or less), power supply constraints (although my Antec EarthWatt 500W, with dual 17A rails on the 12V, is not the worst around), I eventually settled for a Radeon 6850, upgrading exactly +2,000 from my old Radeon 4850. While my Intel E8500 is now the bottleneck in certain games, it’s definitely great to be able to play most games at 1080p without having to turn down the details (or as in my old card’s case, all the way down to 1360×768 @ medium just so it doesn’t crash the faulty card). A quick, cheap, and not so nasty upgrade is sometimes a great way to give some life back to an old PC.

More than expected number of news items this week, so let’s get started.

Copyright

In copyright news, it’s hard to know where to begin. I guess we should start with the source of the problem, the money. More precisely, the money flowing into Washington and other capitals of the world, as the copyright lobby spends millions scaring politicians into believing  ”net piracy plague” hype.

It was revealed this week that the MPAA spent $470,000 in lobbying in the last quarter alone, mainly to promote the hugely controversial PROTECT IP act, which if you’ve been following the WNR, you should already know that it has come under attack by a variety of professionals, from engineers, to entrepreneurs, to law professors. The idea of messing around with the foundation of the Internet, the domain naming system, just so the billion dollar movie industry can feel a little bit better, without actually solving any real problems, is I guess what these professionals are most concerned about. Basically, the MPAA has convinced politicians that the few harmless flies are actually killer bees, and that the only way to solve the problem is to launch a tactical nuclear strike (except in this analogy, the nuclear strike would probably solve the fly problem, whereas PROTECT IP won’t do anything to piracy).

What surprised me more was that, despite being only a fraction of the size of the movie industry, the music industry via its lobby group the RIAA actually spend almost three times as much money – $1.25M, in just one quarter. And somehow, this was still down on last year’s $1.4M, in the same quarter. Had the RIAA simply spend the money they’ve spent on lobbying and DRM, on actual innovation, they would have been the ones making the iPod and running iTunes, not Apple. Instead, they spend a million plus trying to get new legislation through that would allow labels to receive royalty from radio station airings – once upon a time, labels were happy to just get free airings for promotional purposes, but not any more I guess.

Rapidshare logo

RapidShare will hope its recent lobbying spending of $260,000 is enough to convince Washington politicians not to kill off the file sharing industry

The same story also showed some lobbying from the other side, specifically, by Rapidshare. If PROTECT IP passes, they have the most to lose, since they will probably be the first website to get filtered, after having appeared in all the copyright blacklists. There would be far too much collateral damage if lawmakers outlaw public file sharing, because while I do admit Rapidshare has its fair share of pirated files, it’s also an essential service for many others to share large files without having access to your own FTP server. I can’t see how you can have a public file sharing service without the problem of piracy cropping up, but it’s not as if Rapidshare doesn’t have tools for rights holders to get infringing files removed – it’s just that rights holders don’t want to have to do the work to get them removed. Automatic filters are easy to escape by real pirates, but makes false positives hard to avoid – think of the YouTube false positive copyright thing and times it by about 1,000, since at least with YouTube, some kind of audio/visual analysis could be performed, while it’s harder with generic files.

The world’s second most famous music pirate, Boston University student Joel Tenenbaum, is back in the news this week as the RIAA’s appeal of an earlier reduction in damages, to “only” $67,500, was rejected by the appellate court. But not because they supported the original jury rewarded $675,000, but because they thought that Judge Nancy Gertner has jumped to the constitutional issues  a bit too early in citing the reason for the reduction, when there were other legal recourse that should have been taken before going down this route. It appears that the appeals court agrees that $675,000 was inappropriate, and in their summary, even urged Congress to consider reducing the excessive statutory damages in relation to copyright infringement (but we’ll be lucky if Congress doesn’t do the opposite, and increase statutory damages). This is become a bigger issue, because back in the day, most copyright infringement lawsuits were related to commercial infringement, and so the statutory damages are relevant to those types of cases. Today, most copyright infringement cases relate to non commercial infringement, such as illegally downloading a 99 cent song for free, and so $150,000 per act of infringement doesn’t really fit the “crime” any more. A sensible copyright reform would introduce a new tier of penalties dealing specifically with non commercial infringement, because a fine of $150 per act is enough of a deterrent for those that actually fear the law on the matter (most don’t, even with $675,000 in damages as a potential outcome). And so for now, Tenenbaum faces $675,000 in damages again, which will of course be appealed.

But Boston University students aren’t the only ones having money trouble these days. Righthaven’s refusal to pay the $34,000 in legal fees it owns to Wayne Hoehn, possibly through lack of ability to pay, has forced Hoehn’s attorneys to petition the court to send US Marshals to seize Righthaven assets in response. Now that would be a beautiful sight to behold, wouldn’t it? Righthaven took the risk in trying to scare Hoehn into paying a settlement fee, only for Hoehn to refuse to lie down and fight his way to a win in court, and so it’s only fair that Righthaven should pay up. After all, they’re the ones who send letters threatening tens and hundreds of thousands in damages, if people don’t settle. They should have taken their own advice and settled, if they didn’t want to pay up (except I think the judge refused them the right to do so, heh).

Over to Europe right now, whose financial system should collapse any day now, but before then, there are some deck chair shuffling that needs to happen. In Italy, MPs from Berlusconi’s party (why is the guy still prime minster?) want to introduce the world’s first “one-strike” system, where people may get kicked off the Internet for just a single allegation of copyright infringement. Sometimes I think politicians are actually just using copyright as an excuse to kill off the Internet, as the Internet is  making it harder to rule against the wishes of the people. And also to hide your bunga bunga parties. You know what this is? It’s fascism. And we all know how Italians deal with fascists (well, eventually, anyway).

SFI Logo

The SFI's IP address being used for piracy should not be proof that the institute was engaged in piracy

On to Sweden, and the Swedish Film Institute has just gone through what hundreds and thousands of individuals have gone through, after the SFI was accused of pirating films because its IP address had been found in one of many BitTorrent swarms. It would be hard for the SFI to go with the “my router was hacked” excuse, because no hacking did occur, but because they operated a public Wi-Fi, and because the agency tasked with collection IP addresses aren’t cooperating with the SFI on the investigation, it has been extremely difficult for the SFI to find the source of the piracy. And if this doesn’t prove that an IP address does not equal the identity of the individual(s) who made the infringement, then nothing will. And if public Wi-Fi is now going to be the target of anti-piracy operations, then that’s taking a huge step backwards in terms of the Internet everywhere approach that we’ve become used to (and which many websites, like Facebook or FourSquare, rely on).

And this increasing perception gap between how the world works now, and how the copyright lobby/politicians want things to work, is probably why the German Pirate Party has won 15 seats in the Berlin regional elections. With their Swedish counterpart winning a seat in the EU parliament, pirate parties around the world could become the new Greens, as the issue of Internet privacy and rights become more and more important.

High Definition

In HD/3D news, next week should bring us the Star Wars numbers, an early signs show that it will be a big one. I’m a huge Star Wars nerd, having watched the originally trilogies at least 50 times altogether (and the new prequels trilogies about 6 times), but I’ve actually not pre-ordered the set. It’s not a protest at George Lucas or anything, but while Star Wars on DVD was a special moment for me, I’m a bit more meh about Star Wars on Blu-ray for some reason. Probably because, upscaled, the DVD edition still looks quite good, and from early reviews, while the Blu-ray version definitely looks better, the classic trilogies aren’t the “hi-defy” experience that many would be expecting. It’s not only the age of the film that the cause, but I think not going with a new transfer, given advances in technology since the last one, seems like a step backwards. Which is why I suspect we’ll get a new transfer in time for next year’s 3D version of the films, which means a new Blu-ray set (hopefully with the remastered films in 2D, as well as 3D), and so it’s hard to get too excited. I will still probably get it, I mean I got the LotR theatrical mess on Blu-ray.

Plus, I’m finding it difficult to get the time to watch movies these days, got a dozen or more on Blu-ray that’s still under shrink wrap.

For 3D news, this week, YouTube announced a new feature in which you can convert any existing or new uploaded 2D video to 3D. Cool if you like this sort of thing, but the 3D hype is definitely dying, and the 2D to 3D conversion could be the jump the shark moment for the format, because really, it’s an admission by YouTube that nobody is uploading any real 3D content.

GamingAnd finally in gaming, those that saw and agreed to the new PSN user agreement, without reading it (obviously didn’t watch that South Park episode), may realise that they’ve signed over more than they realised.

Sony apparently sneaked a clause which makes it a lot harder for people to join in one of the many class action lawsuit against Sony for the PSN data theft. Those that signed the agreement will have agreed to go through binding individual arbitration before being allowed to join any class action lawsuit, with a Sony appointed arbitrator. If you don’t sign the agreement, then you won’t be allowed to use PSN, but you can opt out of the arbitration only by sending a letter to Sony HQ detailing your wishes, and within 30 days of signing the original agreement, and of course, all of these details were “hidden” in the wordy user agreement. I’m not going to comment on whether this is an underhanded move by Sony or not, but all I will say is that this is exactly what you would expect from such a company, and probably why it’s such an attractive target for hackers.

Diablo III

Diablo III could be a great game, but Blizzard are doing all they can to ruin it with "always-on" DRM and MMO restrictions, without any of the MMO benefits, in the single player mode

Diablo III is an eagerly awaited game, and Blizzard has a great reputation as a game producer. But the company’s insistence on using always-on DRM, they say for anti-cheating purposes, not anti-piracy, could really hurt their reputation, not to mention sales of the game. A recent play of the beta version seems to show a lot of quirks related to the always-on DRM, including the inability to pause games, and game glitches whenever the connection goes down (and it went down a lot, thanks to the flaky beta Blizzard servers), and eventually users get  thrown back to the main menu, losing unsaved progress. Hopefully, the final version will not be as “crippled”, but without adding in a true offline mode, Blizzard is always going to set themselves up to fail. The good news is that there’s still a lot of time between now and the game’s release, so enough public pressure could make Blizzard do the right thing.

And that’s all that was for the week. I’m off to play Starcraft 2 in 1080p, extreme quality mode (which is more than playable at 50/60 FPS on my new 6850, at least when the on screen unit count isn’t too high). See you next week.

Game Consoles – August 2011 NPD Sales Figure Analysis

Tuesday, September 13th, 2011

Welcome to the August 2011 edition of the NPD US Video Game Sales Analysis, where we look at video game sales, both hardware and software, for the month of August 2011 based on data collected by the NPD. Half way through August, Sony surprised the market with a $50 price cut for all of its PS3 models, and so for the first time, we can actually analyze the effect of this price cut and see if it allows Sony’s PS3, languishing in third place amongst the home based consoles, to make a much needed comeback.

As NPD no longer releases full hardware sales figures, this feature is reliant on the game companies, namely Microsoft, Nintendo and Sony, to release their set of figures and based on “statement math” (that is, arithmetically calculate missing figures based on statements made). For August 2011, these are the statements made by the gaming companies:

  • Xbox 360 sold 308,000 units, “maintaining the # 1 console spot in the U.S. for 2011″ (source: @majornelson)
  • Xbox 360 holds 43% home based console market share (Microsoft statement)
  • Wii sells “more than 190,000″ units (Nintendo press release)
  • Sony blames “inventory restraint” for sales in the first half of August, but “PS3 hardware sales were very strong the last two weeks of the month following the $50 price cut” (Sony statement)

Knowing both the Xbox 360 and Wii hardware numbers, and also knowing that the Xbox 360 held 43% of the home based console market share, the PS3 hardware sale is calculated to be an estimated 218,000 units.

And so the figures for US sales in August 2011 are below, ranked in order of number of sales (August 2010 figures also shown, including percentage change):

  • Xbox 360: 308,000 (Total: 28.4 million; August 2010: 356,700 – down 14%)
  • PS3: 218,000 (Total: 17.5 million; August 2010: 226,000 – down 4%)
  • Wii: 190,000 (Total: 36.3 million; August 2010: 244,300 – down 22%)
NPD August 2011 Game Console US Sales Figures

NPD August 2011 Game Console US Sales Figures

NPD Game Console Total US Sales Figures (as of August 2011)

NPD Game Console Total US Sales Figures (as of August 2011)

My prediction from last month was:

With the PS3 price drop coming in just a few days ago, this is just the sort of major event that makes predictions extremely difficult. There’s no doubt in my mind that the PS3 won’t come last again (Wii has the third spot amongst the home based consoles locked up), but the main question is can the PS3 outsell the Xbox 360? The price cut being only $50, and with no new console coming with the price cut like two years ago, maybe it will just come short, but it will be a close run race that’s for sure. For games, again, there’s nothing really of note. Usually at this time of the year, Madden NFL dominates, but with the Madden NFL 12 coming at the end of August, it may not have enough time to make such a major impact this time, although it will probably still be the best seller based on pre-orders alone. No More Heroes: Heroes’ Paradise for the PS3 and Deus Ex: Human Revolution seems to be the only two other notable releases in August.

The PS3 didn’t come last, and the Wii did, but this was an easy prediction to make. But it appears I overestimated the effect of the $50 price cut, and with Xbox 360 sales growing compared to July, the race wasn’t a “close run” one at all, with the Xbox 360 still comfortably retaining first place amongst the home based consoles.  For software, Madden NFL 12’s delay meant that it was not even included in August’s stats as it fell outside of the NPD August sales window (August is counted as a 4 week reporting period by the NPD, lasting from the 31st of July to the 27th of August), while of the two notable new releases, Dues Ex: Human Revolution was predictably the top selling title.

Let’s focus first on the PS3 numbers, and just how much of an effect the $50 price cut has had. On the surface, it looks like the effect was minimal, but dig a little deeper, and the sales bump will seem a bit more robust. Since the price cut only occurred half way through August, the first thing we need to do is to establish a marker for pre price cut sales. Generally (and historically) speaking, there is very little difference between July and August sales, but August tends to sell a few more consoles than July. Since nothing dramatic actually occurred for the Xbox 360, and the only effects being negative (due to price drop of PS3, encouraging more gamers to buy the PS3 over the Xbox 360), the rise of 360 units from 35-day reporting period of July to the 28-day reporting period August 0f roughly 11% could indicate “normal” seasonal growth.

Or not. So let’s take half of this number and say that, had the PS3 not had a price cut, it too would have grown 5.5%. This would make PS3 sales roughly 156,000 units for the whole month of August, or 5,571 units per day, had the price drop not occurred. The price cut was announced on the 16th of August, and so leaving the price cut only 12 days to affect the August NPD figures (again due to the premature end of the NPD reporting period at the end of august), with the first 16 days of the month “business as usual”. This means that prior to the price cut, 89,143 PS3 units were sold, leaving 128,587 being sold after the price cut. This means an increase from 5,571 units per day to 10,716 units per day (127,587 divided by the 12 days of the price cut) after the price cut, practically doubling sales as a result. This means that had the PS3 price cut lasted for the whole 28 day reporting period, PS3 sales would be almost exactly 300,000 units, only 8,000 units shy of the Xbox 360. Had I simply assumed that PS3 sales would have stayed completely flat between July and the first 16 days of August, PS3 unit sales may have reached as high as 311,000 units.

September would have told us a lot more about the full effect of the PS3 price cut, but the Xbox 360 exclusive ‘Gears of War 3′ should help Xbox 360 hardware numbers more than any other PS3 release would do for the PS3 hardware numbers. And with similar high profile releases that generally favour the Xbox 360 in the coming month, the bump from the PS3 price cut may just fall short of making the PS3 more popular than the Xbox 360 during this holiday period.

For the Xbox 360, a solid 11% rise from July to August allowed it to sit comfortably as the best selling home based console, but as noted earlier, it could have been different if the PS3 price cut had come earlier. Hardware sales are down some 14% compared to the same month last year, but again, this is mostly due to the “Slim” sales bump back then.

For the Wii though, August was just as bad as July, and it looks like from this point onwards, it will be third place out of three.  The Wii declined the most compared to August 2010 than any of the other consoles, which means that the rumours surrounding the rushing of the Wii U to market, and the “development hell” (source: n4g.com) that ensues, might show Nintendo is more worried about the Wii decline than they’re letting on.

For game sales, August was a disappointing month, due to the lack of new releases, and the delay of Madden NFL 12 to the September reporting period. So Deus Ex: Human Revolution was actually best selling title across all platforms, even though it was only released for 5 days in the August reporting period. The ‘Just Dance’ franchise continues to be the best selling Wii exclusive titles, but in better times, a Nintendo first party title, like Mario Kart (now bundled with consoles) or Wii Play would have been one of the titles. Here’s the full software sales chart for August:

  1. Deus Ex: Human Revolution (Square Enix, Xbox 360, PS3, PC)
  2. NCAA Football (Take 2, Xbox 360, PS3)
  3. Call of Duty: Black Ops (Activision Blizzard, Xbox 360, PS3, Wii, NDS,PC)
  4. Phineas and Ferb: Across the 2nd (Disney, NDS, Wii, PS3)
  5. Cars 2 (Disney, NDS, Wii, Xbox 360, PS3, PC)
  6. Just Dance Summer Party (Ubisoft, Wii)
  7. Just Dance 2 (Ubisoft, Wii)
  8. Lego Pirates of the Caribbean (Disney, Wii, Xbox 360, NDS, PS3, 3DS, PSP, PC)
  9. The Legend of Zelda Ocarina of Time 3D (Nintendo, NDS)
  10. Zumba Fitness (Majesco, Wii, Xbox 360, PS3)

Time to make a prediction. I think the Xbox 360 will still come out as the top selling console for September 2011, mainly due to ‘Gear of War 3′, but the PS3 will definitely come closer than it did this month, and with ‘Resistance 3′, it too might benefit from a platform exclusive. The Wii will be third. Games wise, ‘Gear of War 3′ looks set to be a top seller, despite being a platform exclusive release. ‘Resistance 3′, on the other hand, doesn’t look to have the same effect, although it will still sell well. Combined platforms sales may even push ‘Dead Island’ to the top of the charts.

See you next month.

Weekly News Roundup (11 September 2011)

Sunday, September 11th, 2011

It’s hard to believe it’s been 10 years already. So much has changed since then, hasn’t it? I remember I was watching The West Wing, of all shows, when the breaking news alert interrupted the episode (and I never did finish watching that episode until I purchased the DVD box set, some 8 years later).

As for news this week, not a lot, but good in quality always makes up for quantity. And after last week’s acidically toned mega long post, I think this week’s will be a lot “better”, well, hopefully shorter anyway.

Copyright

Copyright news up front, I’ll start with a news post that I’m actually quite proud of, because I actually spend like more than 10 minutes “researching” it (aka copying what others reputable news organisations have posted), and it also involved use of arithmetic and statistics, two of my favourites things based on the stuff I like to write on a regular basis (NPD analysis, and weekly Blu-ray stats analysis).

Big DVD Collection

This is what the MPAA thinks a movie pirate's movie collection will look like if they stopped pirating, by spending $1,000 more every year on legal goods

But full credit to the MPAA for releasing the info-graphic that I based my “analysis” on, which came to the conclusion that, if the MPAA’s numbers in regards to piracy rates and the cost to the economy are true, it means that every pirate would be spending $1,000 more every year buying legal content. The MPAA’s “statistics” are mostly conjecture, and (in my opinion, wildly inaccurate) estimations. Because you can’t really estimate losses due to piracy, because this would require knowing what pirates would do if they did not pirate any more. This is impossible to calculate because, one, you can’t guess what a group of largely independent people will and will not do, and two, there’s not way to stop piracy and force these people to “do the right thing”. But let’s give the MPAA the benefit of the doubt and let’s say their figures are correct, then what the MPAA is effectively saying is that probably 25% of all Net users in the United States are pirates, and that each pirate is costing the creative industries $1,000 per year, per person, to get to the $58 billion yearly losses that the MPAA mentions. If the MPAA counts every instance of copyright theft as a loss of revenue for the full price of said product, then $1,000 is probably about right. But this is misleading to the extreme, as it would be like saying if jewel thieves didn’t steal $1m worth of diamonds from a jewellery store, they would have purchased the $1m worth of diamonds (I wanted to use my usual car theft analogy, but I think I’ve gone over my allowed quota for the year). And any theft analogy is incorrect anyway, as file sharing is not theft – it’s not paying for stuff you should have, like reading a magazine at a news stand without paying, but it’s quite different than say shoplifting the same magazine.

What’s more disturbing for me, as opposed to a rather harmless, but propaganda-ish infographic, is the MPAA getting involved at the law enforcement level when it comes to anti-piracy operations, even those that are outside of the US. Of course, infographics and misleading stats help the MPAA scare politicians into giving them this sort of access, so this cannot be discounted either. What brings me to this is the news this week that newly leaked Wikileaks documents show the MPAA and the IFPI, two lobby groups, all involved in high level discussions with South Korean anti-piracy law enforcement agencies, and with ICE detailing their operations against warez topsites, the sites that are acts as the point of origin for pirated content on the Internet. On one hand, you might say that having an industry group involved in tackling the industry’s own problems makes sense, but if it’s the industry’s problem, then why is a government agency and two governments, spending precious tax payer resources, to tackle the problem that many experts say are the industry’s own creation anyway, due to outdated business models? This whole idea comes from politicians believing that copyright theft *is* a $58 billion per year problem, but it isn’t, and it’s not costing 300,000 jobs a year. If you want to make such flimsy conclusions from nothing but wild guesses, then I have a few more I would like to make, such as that piracy creates jobs by allowing website operators to make money to provide  content to people who had no means to pay for it in the first place. And the people enjoying pirated content end up spending their money on other more essential services and products, and their money won’t end up in the pockets of greedy studios who are already making record profits, or end up giving more money to rich, spoilt Hollywood stars and autotuned pop musicians.

And if the government is to spend tax payer resources to help a well to do industry, while others are struggling, and to do it at the expense of one of the most innovative and fast growing industries, the Internet industry, then this will hurt the economy even more. Which is why a “who’s who” of the Internet business has come out attacking the MPAA/RIAA backed PROTECT IP act, which, despite the controversy, is gaining support in Congress (lobbying money helps soothes the aches from migraines, back aches, and lack of conscience). The founders of Twitter, Zynga, FourSquare, and key people from StackExchange, LinkedIn, and Tim O’Reilly, yes, *that* Tim O’Reilly, has signed a letter asking Congress not to go ahead with PROTECT IP, as it could hurt small Internet businesses, and the broad nature of the act means that it could hurt innovation as well. This comes after more than 100 law professors also signed an open letter asking Congress to reconsider, and after Internet pioneers and top engineers also writing a similar letter urging caution when it comes to messing around with DNS. Hmm, it seems that open letters are not a very effect form of mass action, or the US is run by politicians that don’t care for expert opinion as much as they care about where their next campaign contribution is going to come from. Or both.

Righthaven R.I.P.

Is Righthaven about to file for bankruptcy?

But there’s also good news for those that believe in karma, as Righthaven might have to file bankruptcy due to their recent legal and financial setbacks. Not only has judges started to see through Righthaven’s scheme, which in my opinion, is nothing more than a money making scheme, they’ve started punishing Righthaven by rewarding damages *against* the firm. Righthaven’s biggest mistakes is that they haven’t been able to avoid going to court, and they haven’t been able to do so because the people they’re suing weren’t willing to give up so easily. It’s one thing to sue movie pirates, but to sue those that are interested enough in the news to copy/paste articles and post it on their own blogs, is just asking for trouble. These are clearly opinionated people, who love a good fight, and will stand up for themselves out of principle, even if it end up costing them more money in the process – and these are not the right “targets” for mass copyright lawsuits. And then there’s the news that Righthaven’s second largest client, MediaNews Group, has now pulled out, leaving Stephens Media, which are also the money behind Righthaven, as their only big client. And even that money may no be as forthcoming as before, as Righthaven have apparently asked a judge if they can delay paying the $34,000 or so they owe to one of the “targets”, as they’re having trouble coming up with the cash. If Righthaven does go under, nobody would shed a tear for them, as to paraphrase the new MediaNews Group chief, it was a stupid idea to being with.

It’s not the first time Christofer Sundberg has spoken out against gaming DRM, but it’s always good to hear from developers on the issue. Sundberg is the founder of Avalanche Studios, the makers of the Just Cause series amongst other games. And this week, Sundberg let the world know what he thought of the latest trend in using “always-on” DRM. Suffice to say, he’s not a big fan, mainly because in his opinion, in this day and ages when piracy is rampant and people have a lot of “choice”, even if some are illegal, if publishers are not providing extra incentive for consumers, then they’re doing something wrong. “Always-on” DRM in fact takes away incentive for consumers to pay for games, and even those that do, will have to rely on pirate solutions to play the game without annoying interruptions. For Sundberg, it’s also about trust, and he believes that “always-on” DRM basically says to the paying customer: “Thank you for buying our game, we trust you as far as we can throw you”. Instead, developers and publishers should listen to gamers, even though that don’t buy the games, more – listen to their suggestions, make them feel like part of the development process (because they are a part of it, the end “using it” part of it at least). But Sundberg also stated that it’s mostly up to publishers as to what kind of DRM to use, and if Avalanche’s publishers decide to use “always-on” DRM, there’s not much he can do about it, even if his whole studio will be up in arms against such a move. And this also reminds me to play Just Cause 2 a bit more, since I haven’t really played it after getting it on Steam – I’m such a reverse pirate when it comes to games sometimes, I buy a lot (usually on sale), and then never play them!

High Definition

In HD/3D news, it’s a contractual obligation for the  WNR to cover a rumour about Blu-ray coming to the Xbox 360 at least once twice a year, and so with much regret, I bring you the latest rumour.

To be fair, it now makes a lot more sense for Blu-ray on Xbox 360 than even just a year (and a bit) ago, mainly due to the new, slimmer, quieter, faster, stronger (and now less shiny) Xbox 360. And with games coming on multiple DVDs, perhaps Blu-ray is also finally needed for games, although due to noise and loading speed issues, it’s always better to install games to the built-in HDD – so you really only need to do a single disc swap for a game that requires 2-discs, during the install process, and while Blu-ray removes the need to do this, the extra cost of getting the add-on drive would negate any benefit when it comes to gaming, leaving only the benefit of being able to play Blu-ray movies. But with Blu-ray standalone players available for so cheap these days, you can get a budget standalone for the expected $50 cost of the add-on, and so having a Blu-ray add-on doesn’t even make that much sense for movies either. And with Blu-ray competing against Microsoft’s preferred streaming platforms, that’s another reason why Microsoft is in no hurry to launch a Blu-ray enabled Xbox 360.

Gaming

And that brings us finally to gaming. The NPD report for August is out, and I should have the analysis up in a few days. While only Microsoft and Nintendo provided hardware data for this month, Microsoft again provided some extra info that allows for the PS3 numbers to be deduced.

Despite the PS3 $50 price cut (coming in at the middle point of the month), the Xbox 360 was still comfortably the best selling home based console of the month, selling some 41% more units than the now discounted PS3. This is probably why Sony felt the need to withhold sales data yet again, because many, including myself, predicted the PS3 to at least give the Xbox 360 a run for its money this month, but it did not happen. Maybe, with a full month of discounting on hand, the PS3 will put up more of a fight, but September is a huge month for the Xbox 360 due to the release of Gears of War 3, and with Battlefield 3 and MW 3 coming in October and November respectively, these will again heavily favour the Xbox 360, so it looks to be a good holiday period for the console, even if Kinect Star Wars has now been delayed until after Christmas.

And on that note, I shall end this week’s WNR. See you in a week’s time.