DVDGuy’s Blog @ Digital Digest

The October 2008 NPD sales figures are out, and there are no big surprises. There is the usual sales bump associated with the holiday season, and we get to see the Xbox 360 price drop in full effect, plus LittleBigPlanet and how it did for the PS3. You can read last month’s analysis here. The figures are from NPD, a marketing research firm that releases games console sale data every month.

The figures for US sales in September are below, ranked in order of number of sales:

NPD October 2008 Game Console US Sales Figures

NPD Game Console Total US Sales Figures (as of October 2008)

My prediction last month was:

The September 2008 NPD sales figures are out, and there are some surprises. The holiday season is just starting, and the figures show a slight lift in sales compared to the last month. We are near the few months of the year when most consoles and games are sold, and we shall see who has positioned themselves best for this upcoming holiday season. You can read last month’s analysis here. The figures are from NPD, a marketing research firm that releases games console sale data every month.

The figures for US sales in September are below, ranked in order of number of sales:

NPD September 2008 Game Console US Sales Figures

NPD Game Console Total US Sales Figures (as of September 2008)

 My prediction last month was:

… the (Xbox 360) price cuts already done with, the momentum could swing back to the PS3 again. The Wii will sell well, and probably recover a bit just in time for the holiday season.

I was right about the Wii, but I was wrong about the Xbox 360. As this month’s figures show, the price cuts had a huge effect on Xbox 360 sales. The surge it produced was enough to propel the Xbox 360 to the third most popular video game hardware, out-selling the PSP and the PS3.

The Xbox 360 also out-sold the PS3 last month, but it was by a much smaller margin. I’m not sure price cuts are a long term solution, but for this holiday season at least, the Xbox 360 is positioned very well to compete with the PS3 and possibly even the Wii. Sony has already come out and said that they won’t cut PS3 prices this year, so I think Microsoft will emerge as the overall winner for 2008 in the war against the PS3. Microsoft is probably trying to achieve some sort of critical mass for the uptake of the Xbox 360, because if enough of your friends have Xbox 360’s, then you would want one too, wouldn’t you? The superior multiplayer system of the 360, despite not being free, will further drive this sort of “peer pressure”. If you want to a curr-gen console somewhat comparable to the PS3, good multiplayer support, a huge range of games at cheap prices (I saw older Xbox 360 hits like Dead Rising, Crackdown on sale for $10 this week … amazing value for hours and hours of fun), then the Xbox 360 is your only choice. The Wii is another, but only if you don’t care that your games look a bit crap on your 50″ HDTV. The Japanese sales figures which have shown the Xbox 360 out-selling the PS3 on its own turf is just the cherry on top, really.

Sony on the other hand are probably not worried about PS3 sales being slightly flatter this year, or even the next. Remember, they’ve said they have a 10 year strategy for the PS3 and this is only the second year. They believe they can achieve something similar to the PS2, where even now, it is still selling in good quantities and there are now more than 42 million PS2s in the US alone. Of course, the PS3 is a completely different beast to the PS2, and if you want to compare apples to apples, then the Xbox 360 is positioned similarly to the PS2 and the PS3 is similar to the original Xbox - cheap, less powerful hardware with more games versus more expensive, more powerful hardware with less games. Will we ever see the mass upgrade of PS2s to PS3s? I think many of these people have already “upgraded” to the Xbox 360 as they were waiting for the PS3 to come down in price (or improve in title availability). Will they buy a PS3 as well? Maybe, or maybe they will buy a Wii instead. While I think Sony’s strategy is still safe for the time being, you cannot market the PS3 as a premium piece of equipment because people don’t really care about that, people just want good games at cheap prices. If anything, the Wii has been marketed is the exact opposite of the PS3, cheap hardware, but fun. When I think the PS3, I think superior Blu-ray player and multimedia hub, not a console you associate with “fun” (even the sleek black design doesn’t say “fun” to me, it reminds me of the monolith in 2001 to be honest). And with the economy the way it is, people are looking at saving money, not spending more even if it is a superior piece of kit.

Speaking of the Wii, it continues to do well, and I don’t think this holiday period will be any different when it comes to demand (so get your orders in now while you still can, and don’t get left out like the last two holiday periods). The real success story of this year (and the last) has to be the Wii, because without a huge array of hit games, and without constant price drops, it has managed to remain top of the sales charts by a considerable margin. The ‘funness’ I alluded to earlier, and the fact that it isn’t expensive to start with is what I think has made it a success, and if anything, the downturn in economic conditions might help it sell more at the expense of more expensive consoles (mainly the PS3, as the Xbox 360 has become even cheaper).

Moving on to software sales, the Xbox 360’s lead over the PS3 means it continues to do well whenever a big multi-platform game is released, and this month, it’s Star Wars: The Force Unleashed. The Wii continues to do well of course, but even though it has more hardware in people’s homes than the Xbox 360, serious gamers (those that spend serious bucks) are still the ones with Xbox 360’s it seems. The PS3 had the poorest result of the year I think, with only a single title in the top 10, and that was Star Wars. Overall, 45.1% of the top 10 sales belonged to the Xbox 360, the Wii was close behind on 40.3%, the PS3 far behind with only 9.8% and a single PS2 title rounding off the month. Here’s the complete list of the top 10 software sales:

1. Star Wars: The Force Unleashed (Xbox 360, LucasArts) - 610,000
2. Wii Fit w/Board (Wii, Nintendo) - 518,000   
3. Rock Band 2 (Xbox 360, MTV/EA) - 363,000
4. Mario Kart w/ Wheel (Wii, Nintendo) - 353,000
5. Star Wars: The Force Unleashed (PS3, LucasArts) - 325,000
6. Mercenaries 2 (Xbox 360, EA) - 297,000
7. Wii Play w/ Remote (Wii, Nintendo) - 243,000
8. Madden NFL 09 (Xbox 360, EA) - 224,000
9. Star Wars: The Force Unleashed (PS2, LucasArts) - 223,000
10. Madden NFL 09 (PS2, EA) - 158,000

The next month should see an increase in sales all around, but I suspect it will be the same as this months in terms of the ranking, the Wii ahead by quite a bit, the Xbox 360 following with the PS3 third (in between are the portables, while the PS2 is sixth). Common sense really. See you next month.

Welcome to another edition of our monthly NPD US game console sales figure analysis. We are now looking at officially the slowest months in terms of video games sales, at least when hardware is concerned (software sales depends on which titles are released during the month). You can read last month’s analysis here. The figures are from NPD, a marketing research firm that releases games console sale data every month.

The figures for US sales in August are below, ranked in order of number of sales:

NPD August 2008 Game Console US Sales Figures

NPD Game Console Total US Sales Figures (as of August 2008)

My exact prediction last month was this:

I think it will be somewhat similar, maybe the Xbox 360 can overtake the PS3, maybe it won’t. There won’t be any dramatic changes, I don’t think.

I basically didn’t make a prediction last month, other than to say that the Xbox 360 and PS3 sales would be close. And I guess I was right on this account, since the Xbox 360 managed to outsell the PS3 by a nose this month. The other “surprise” was the drop in Wii sales, but as mentioned before, August is a slow month.

The Xbox 360 managed to beat the PS3 by a whisker this month, thanks largely to the price cuts. The momentum is definitely with the PS3 at the moment, because even with the price cuts, the Xbox 360 could not significantly outsell a PS3 that is double the price (360 Arcade versus 80 GB PS3). From Microsoft’s perspective, and coming from the relatively failure of the original Xbox, if it can keep up sales with the PS3 while getting some penetration into the casual gaming market dominated by the Wii, then it should be happy with the outcome now-gen console war. The problem is that you feel with a price cut or two, the PS3 will start selling in much greater numbers as PS2 users start to upgrade, and the Xbox 360 won’t be able to compete. And a cheaper PS3 will probably mean fewer Xbox 360 sales as well, so it’s doubly hit. Microsoft needs to come up with something more than price cuts to entice users. If you want to best console from a technology point of view, then it’s the PS3. If you want the most fun console, then it’s the Wii. So where does the Xbox 360 come into all of this? That’s the problem Microsoft has to solve.

PS3 hardware sales is still largely dependent on software releases, as people are still searching for a reason to upgrade to the PS3, rather than doing it naturally. The price is the main issue here, but the good news for Sony is that price related problems are the easiest to solve (solution: cut them when you can afford to). LittleBigPlanet will be released next month, so that’s another eagerly awaited title that will help with sales. 

As mentioned before, Wii sales dropped due to decreased damand and stock issues. The Wii hype will die off eventually, but there will always be a ready supply of casual gamers wanting to experience the Wii. All the “Wii is dying” stories following the release of the NPD figures are a bit over the top really.

Now let’s have a look at the software charts. August was pretty much dominated by Madden ‘09, with the title in the top 10 an amazing four times for each different console, accounting for 61% of top 10 sales (by unit). Despite the gains the PS3 is making, the raw numbers still favour the Xbox 360 and the Xbox 360 version of Madden stole the show in August with one million sales and 28% of the top 10. The PS3 version of Madden was next on the list, but only about 65% of the sales the 360 version made. The Wii version of Madden made the top 10 too, but it was at 9th position. It shows that with traditional titles such as Madden, the 360/PS3 (and even PS2) still has more selling power than the Wii. Overall, Xbox 360 sales accounted for 37.7% of the top 10. Wii software sales are still relatively strong, accounting for 29.2% of top 10 sales. The PS3 was third with 18.1%. Here’s the complete list of the top 10 software sales (check out the links for cheapest, usually Asian but region-free, version of the game available from Play-Asia, for example, Madden 09 for 360/PS3: both under $50):

1. Madden NFL 09 (Xbox 360, EA) - 1,000,000
2. Madden NFL 09 (PS3, EA) - 643,000
3. Madden NFL 09 (PS2, EA) - 424,500
4. Wii Fit w/Board (Wii, Nintendo) - 394,900   
5. Mario Kart w/ Wheel (Wii, Nintendo) - 328,700
6. Wii Play w/ Remote (Wii, Nintendo) - 200,200
7. Soul Calibur IV (Xbox 360, Namco) - 174,000
8. Too Human (Xbox 360, Microsoft) - 168,200 
9. Madden NFL 09 (Wii, EA) - 115,800
10. Guitar Hero: On Tour (Nintendo DS, Activision) - 111,200

And so it’s prediction time for next month. Don’t know why, but I really don’t want to make a prediction for September. Star Wars: The Force Unleashed will be a good seller. Lego Batman could make the top 10 too. But both of these are multi-platform releases, so you would think the Xbox 360 would benefit more, but with the price cuts already done with, the momentum could swing back to the PS3 again. The Wii will sell well, and probably recover a bit just in time for the holiday season. More of the same it is then. See you next month.

Welcome to another edition of our monthly NPD US game console sales figure analysis. We are going through what is traditionally a quiet period in terms of video game sales, but thanks to the Wii and the competition between the Xbox 360 and PS3, sales are still strong compared to the same period last year. Microsoft introduced their price cut this month, so it will be interesting to see if there was any effect. Read on to find out. You can read last month’s analysis here. The figures are from NPD, a marketing research firm that releases games console sale data every month.

The figures for US sales in July are below, ranked in order of number of sales:

NPD July 2008 Game Console US Sales Figures

 

NPD Game Console Total US Sales Figures (as of July 2008)

My prediction last month was this:

I’m going to go for a very similar situation to this month, except PS3 sales may drop a little due to MGS4 sales dropping off. Wii to dominate, PS3 to come second, and the Xbox 360 to struggle a bit as price cuts only come into effect half way through July.

With all things considered, it was pretty accurate. PS3 sales did drop almost by half (down 45%), but it was still enough to beat the Xbox 360 for the third month running. As expected also, the Wii still dominated, although it too experienced a sales drop (down 17%). The Xbox 360 held up better (down 7%), but as the price cuts only affected about half of the days that was included in the “July” figures, it is unknown whether it was enough to have taken the 360 above the PS3 had the cut happened at the beginning of July.

What is clear is that Microsoft still needs to do more if it is to keep up with the PS3, which still has a lot of potential to be discovered. The price cut, re-design of the dashboard, video streaming services, the more family oriented approach, bringing more previously PS3 exclusives on-board like the Final Fantasy series, will all help, but it’s hard to say if it is enough. Microsoft did have good news this week in Japan, where it topped the PS3 for the first time, all thanks to a single game release (Tales of Vesperia). So good software release can drive sales, and if the rumours that Microsoft is working on a Wii like device, then a Wii Sport like title may drive sales even further.

Wii sales did drop, and some sectors of the media decided this is just the first of many drops to come for the Wii as the hype fades. I don’t think this will be the case, because the Wii is genuinely fun and this will always attract users, even when the hype disappears.

The MGS4 led surge in PS3 sales predictably dropped, but it is still doing quite well in comparison to the Xbox 360. But this may not be enough. Just because the PS3 can easily beat a struggling competitor that may have already gone past its sales peak doesn’t mean that it can be classified a total success. For the PS3 to be dominant like the PS2, it still needs to reach much higher sales number, closer to that of the Wii. I think this will come as more software, peripherals become available, and when the PS2 reaches its end of life.

Let’s look at the software charts, where Microsoft had a relatively good month. Thanks to its almost exactly 2:1 total console lead over the PS3, it is still out-selling the PS3 on multi-platform titles. The number one title was a Xbox 360 release as well. MGS4 on the PS3 completely disappeared from the charts. The Wii, now the best selling console in the US, still had the overall lead. The Wii had 40.3% of the top 10 titles by units sold, the Xbox 360 had 31% and the PS3 with 16.2. The rest was for Activision’s Guitar Hero: On Tour for the Nintendo DS, a surprise hit whose sale is going strong for the second month running. The surprise title on the charts is Take Two’s Civilization Revolution, a traditionally weak type of games on consoles (turn based strategy) - with consoles becomes more and more PC like in hardware and functionality, games that are better played on PCs may make a good transition to consoles provided the control interface is suitably tweaked, as it has been with Revolution. Here’s the complete list of the top 10 software sales:

1. NCAA Football 09 (Xbox 360, EA) - 397,600
2. Wii Fit w/Board (Wii, Nintendo) - 369,600 
3. Guitar Hero: On Tour (Nintendo DS, Activision) - 309,700
4. Wii Play w/ Remote (Wii, Nintendo) - 284,000
5. NCAA Football 09 (PS3, EA) - 242,500
6. Soul Calibur IV (Xbox 360, Namco) - 218,900
7. Mario Kart w/ Wheel (Wii, Nintendo) - 174,500
8. Rock Band (Wii, EA) - 165,800
9. Soul Calibur IV (PS3, Namco) - 155,800
10. Sid Meier’s Civilization Revolution (Xbox 360, Take Two) - 147,600

And finally, the prediction for next month. I have no idea, honestly. I think it will be somewhat similar, maybe the Xbox 360 can overtake the PS3, maybe it won’t. There won’t be any dramatic changes, I don’t think. We are quickly approaching the peak period of sales, the holiday season, and things will be much clearer at that time than right now. See you next month.

It’s that time of the month again. The June 2008 NPD sales figures are out, and there are a few interesting happenings this month. E3 has just concluded, and the Xbox 360 was the winner of this year’s event, although it wasn’t one for the books with very few innovations and surprises, not even from Nintendo. But perhaps Microsoft needed that E3, as you will find from this month’s figures the Xbox 360 isn’t doing very well, not compared to the Wii and not the PS3. Could this be the start of a new trend, or is it just a one off due to the strong software line-up Sony had in June (MGS4). Read on to find out. You can read last month’s analysis here. The figures are from NPD, a marketing research firm that releases games console sale data every month.

The figures for US sales in June are below, ranked in order of number of sales:

NPD June 2008 Game Console US Sales Figures

NPD Game Console Total US Sales Figures (as of June 2008)

 As you can see from the figures and graphs above, it was a great month for the PS3 (and it was pretty good in software sales too, see below). While the Wii maintained it’s high sales figures way above that of both the PS3 and Xbox 360 combined, PS3 sales exploded nearly doubling last month’s effort. Due to this, it comfortably beat the Xbox 360, again nearly twice as many sales. This should be worrying for Microsoft as 2008 has been a great year for the PS3, and a very average one for the 360. While Microsoft blamed stock shortages early on, there aren’t any excuses for the last few months.

When put into this context, the recent price drops and the good showing at E3 is now all the more important for the Redmond based company, as it needs to regain the momentum it had last year when it trounced the PS3 for months at a time. The E3 offerings, including snatching the previously PlayStation exclusive Final Fantasy XIII from Sony’s grasps, securing a free movie streaming service for Xbox Live Gold users from Netflix, and re-designing the 360 Dashboard to try and steal some customers from the Wii.

While Sony can be extremely pleased with recent performances, it needs to be said that June’s performance was largely, if not solely, based on the strong sales for Metal Gear Solid 4, a PS3 exclusive. This is pretty much the first PS3 exclusive title that has reached top spot on the software charts, and if Sony can bring out a few more titles like this, then it can keep the momentum going well into next year. Microsoft had a similar bumper month when Halo 3 was released, but as history tells us, it didn’t last very long. Microsoft, on the other hand, did not have any must-have releases of the same ilk, although Ninja Gaiden II did well.

Going away from the PS3/360, the “Nintendo Family” consisting of the Wii and DS again did extremely well. The PSP also nearly doubled in sales, and it’s easy to see why Sony is concentrating on promoting the “PlayStation Family”. There is no Xbox family though, as Microsoft does not have a handheld device to compete, although one would say that the DS and PSP does seem to have the handheld market locked down.

Let’s have a detailed look at the software charts. Sony’s dominance due to MGS4 is clear to see below, snatching 20.4% of the top 10 sales. The Xbox 360 didn’t do that much poorer though, with two titles in the top 10 and 19% of the sales. The Wii again is the winner with 35% and no less than 4 titles in the top 10. Two DS and one PS2 title rounds off the top 10, including Guitar Hero: On Tour for the DS at a high number 2 - it’s even better news for Nintendo because this was not a first party game like most of its other top 10 titles. In fact, the Wii had 2 titles in the top 10 not published by Nintendo, so there’s another criticism of the Wii crossed off the (now very small) list. I know I say this about 10 times every NPD analysis, but again it’s been a good month for Nintendo.

1. Metal Gear Solid IV (PS3, Konami) - 774,600
2. Guitar Hero: On Tour (Nintendo DS, Activision) - 422,300
3. Ninja Gaiden II (Xbox 360, Tecmo/MGS) - 372,700
4. Wii Fit w/Board (Wii, Nintendo) - 372,700 
5. Wii Play w/ Remote (Wii, Nintendo) - 359,100
6. Battlefield: Bad Company (Xbox 360, EA) - 346,800 
7. Mario Kart w/ Wheel (Wii, Nintendo) - 322,400
8. Lego Indiana Jones (Wii, Lucasarts) - 294,500
9. Lego Indiana Jones (DS, Lucasarts) - 267,800
10. Lego Indiana Jones (PS2, Lucasarts) - 260,300

 So that’s it for the month of June. I loathe to make a prediction next month, but with all things considered, I’m going to go for a very similar situation to this month, except PS3 sales may drop a little due to MGS4 sales dropping off. Wii to dominate, PS3 to come second, and the Xbox 360 to struggle a bit as price cuts only come into effect half way through July. See you next month.