DVDGuy’s Blog @ Digital Digest

The May 2009 NPD figures are out for video game hardware and software sales in the US. Following a pretty disastrous April, all hope was on a recovery in May. With the critically acclaimed PS3 exclusive inFAMOUS being launched in the last week of May, it will also be interesting to see if it can help lead the recover, at least on the PS3 front, or was it yet again released too late in the month to make a huge dent (much like Killzone 2)? Read on the find out. The figures are from NPD, a marketing research firm that releases games console sale data every month.

The figures for US sales in May 2009 are below, ranked in order of number of sales (May 2008 figures also shown, including percentage change):

• DS: 633,500 (Total: 31.4 million; May 2008: 452,600 – up 40%)
• Wii: 289,500 (Total: 20.2 million; May 2008: 675,100 – down 57%)
• Xbox 360: 175,000 (Total: 15.2 million; May 2008: 186,600 – down 6%)
• PS3: 131,000 (Total: 7.7 million; May 2008: 208,700 - down 37%)
• PS2: 117,000 (Total: 44.1 million; May 2008: 132,700 – down 12%)
• PSP: 100,400 (Total: 15.2 million; May 2008: 182,300 – down 45%)

NPD May 2009 Game Console US Sales Figures

NPD Game Console Total US Sales Figures (as of May 2009)

My prediction from last month was:

Can a recovery take place in May? Looking at the Amazon top 10 charts now, it doesn’t look like a great month for games. PS3’s exclusive Infamous might make a dent, but it may come too late in May to make a huge difference to May’s figures. I’m going to predict a slight recovery for the PS3, as PS2 sales will start to drop again following the price cut, and PS3 has nowhere to go but up, especially if Infamous can help to lift sales up. Everything else the same as it was this month, I suppose.

I’m not often right. In fact, it almost never happens. But I think I was pretty spot on with my prediction. The PS3 did lift in sales, whether that’s down to inFAMOUS or not is hard to say but inFAMOUS did make the top 10. The PS2 did drop in sales as the expected boost given by the price drop deteriorated rather quickly. Everything else remains in a similar situation, with the DS down but still top, as the fever over the new DSi fades.

Having a look at the year on year comparison figures above (mostly in red), it was again a “bad” month if you do a straight comparison with the same time last year. But this is extremely misleading because May 2008 was a very good month for video games, despite May being a traditionally poor month for sales – GTA IV was still a hot item back then for one. So forgetting about the year to year figures, May 2009 was still a relatively poor month. DS sales remain strong thanks to the DSi, but having dropped by almost half compared to last month, sales will be back to “normal” in no time. Wii sales have started to behave much more like the other consoles, dropping with them and rising with them – the Wii had up until now performed miracles in sales that seemed to have made it immune to economic pressures and the fact that it’s not a new console anymore. But Nintendo will be happy with the software figures, as you’ll see later on.

Another very ‘meh’ month for Sony. PS3 sales improved, but it was still behind the Xbox 360 despite the PS3 getting the highly rated exclusive inFAMOUS. The software figures for inFAMOUS may have been affected by the limited release time it had in May, but hardware sale increases usually precede a popular title as people anticipate the release, and this could explain partly why the PS3 did increase in sales from the previous month – the only console to do so this month. But the amount of increase was not big enough, neither were the sales numbers for inFAMOUS. The PS2 got a reprieve last month thanks to price drops, but it continues on its road to oblivion this month. Sony should really just give up on this console already. Sony announced a new PSP console at E3, and this will drive up sales when it is released later in the year, but for now, the PSP has nowhere to go really as people wait for the new version (although price drops for the older model may help to spur sales in the coming months).

And finally onto Microsoft, who had a good E3 thanks to Project Natal (and the subsequent press coverage, including the live demo on Late Night with Jimmy Fallon).  But there were no exclusives, or price drops, and so nothing much changed for this month. In fact, sales were exactly the same as last month. But out of all the consoles that experienced year to year drops (that is, all except for the DS, but it doesn’t count because of the DSi), it experienced the least amount of decrease.

Let’s get to software. As mentioned earlier, Nintendo had reason to not be so worried about Wii hardware sales, because Wii software sales are still strong. Half of the top 10 were Wii games, with another DS game thrown in for good measure. And the better news is that two of the top selling Wii games were new to the list, EA Sports Active and Punch Out! – this is one area Nintendo wanted improvement on, as opposed to relying on the trifecta of Wii Play, Mario Kart and Wii Fit all the time. Microsoft should be fairly pleased as well, taking the number one spot for the second time this year, with the multi-platform UFC 2009. Sony would have wanted inFAMOUS to be higher up than 5th and selling only a third of the number one game of the month (which wasn’t even an exclusive). I will again point out that it was released too late in the months to make huge dent (why does Sony always do this?), but most sales happen in the first week and 175,900 is disappointing considering Killzone 2 got almost double this and the fact that it was an exclusive. I find it hard to believe that out of the nearly 8 million PS3 owners in the US, only such a small percentage decided to buy this highly rated and hyped game at release. And it’s not just the price though, because so many more wanted to by UFC 2009 on the PS3. Overall, the Wii had 43.2% of the top 10, the Xbox 360 had 30.8% and the PS3 had 19.6%. Here’s the complete list of the top 10 software sales:

1. UFC 2009 Undisputed (Xbox 360, THQ) – 679,600
2. Wii Fit w/Board (Wii, Nintendo) – 352,800
3. EA Sports Active (Wii, EA) – 345,800
4. UFC 2009 Undisputed (PS3, THQ) – 334,400
5. inFAMOUS (PS3, Sony) – 175,900
6. Pokemon Platinum (DS, Nintendo) – 168,900
7. Mario Kart w/ Wheel (Wii, Nintendo) – 158,300
8. Punch Out! (Wii, Nintendo) – 156,900
9. X-Men Origins: Wolverine Uncaged (Xbox 360, Activision) – 120,700
10. Wii Play w/ Remote (Wii, Nintendo) – 109,800

June is hard to predict. There should be an increase in sales from a seasonal point of view. Plus, there is also the release of Prototyped (think inFAMOUS but multi-platform, and much more exaggerated) and the Ghostbusters video game, and with inFAMOUS continue to be the top PS3 seller, it should all point to a better month. I don’t know if the E3 announcements will have any effect on sales, but most of the announcements aren’t for immediate product releases (apart from Nintendo’s Wii Motion Plus, but the Wii Sports Resort game which takes advantage of it doesn’t come out until July), so I don’t think there will be a huge effect, if any. So the prediction is the same as this month, with the PS3 numbers slightly higher still but maybe not high enough to beat the Xbox 360. I can see Prototype (the Xbox 360 version) being the top seller for the month, and it will be interesting to see how it stacks up against inFAMOUS which has received better review ratings (although the “100″ ratings given out by a few places are a bit over the top).

See you next month.

The April 2009 NPD figures are out, and on the surface, it makes bad reading for the gaming industry. Sales of both hardware and software are down, and even more so compared to the same time last year. Is the gaming industry in trouble, or are the figures not really as bad as they seem? Read on the find out. The figures are from NPD, a marketing research firm that releases games console sale data every month.

The figures for US sales in April 2009 are below, ranked in order of number of sales (April 2008 figures also shown, including percentage change):

NPD April 2009 Game Console US Sales Figures

NPD Game Console Total US Sales Figures (as of April 2009)

My prediction from last month was:

I have no idea what’s on sale next month. I could check, but I’m lazy. Suffice to say, I don’t expect the situation to change much, although hardware sales could improve. Can the PS3 outsell it’s 2008 self? I’m going to say yes again to that, even though I was wrong last month. This is because April 2008 was a bad month for the PS3, the first signs that it wasn’t going to beat the 360 in 2008 like the first few months had promised. Sony will hope April 2009 will be a better month.

I was right. I was lazy and I should have checked. No, the PS3 once again did not out-sell its 2008 self. It didn’t even manage to outsell the PS2 this month. And the situation has changed, because everything is down, apart from the DS and the PS2.

Starting with what little good news we have this month. The DS did manage to outsell its 2008 self, but only because a new DS, the DSi, was released. But still, a 150% increase is impressive regardless of the reason behind it. The PS2 is the only other console to have increased in sales compared to the April 2008 figures. This I think is largely down to the recent price drop announced by Sony. If a small price drop for such an old console can show this kind of result, imagine what a price drop can do for a PS3? The rumours of a new PS3 “slim” with a lower price due to a cheaper manufacturing process may explain why Sony is reluctant to drop PS3 prices for now, and reports show that the PS3 is currently losing around $40 per console sold, and Sony can’t afford to increase its losses this financial year.

On to the bad news. The least bad this month is the Xbox 360 sales figures, which only dropped *only* 7% compared to last year, although it still meant a 47% month-to-month drop for the console. But compared to all the other consoles, it did well. The low price of the Xbox 360 may have something to do with this. The Wii, PSP and PS3 all recorded dismal efforts, falling both in month-to-month and year-to-year comparisons. The fact that the PS3 was outsold by the PS2 should ring alarm bells at Sony HQ. The Wii’s good run seems to have come to an end, although it was still comfortable the best selling non portable console. The PSP is going nowhere. Fast.

But to put everything in perspective, April 2008 was a good month for software at least, due to the release of GTA IV and Mario Kart for the Wii. So let’s not over analyse the April 2008 to 2009 comparison. April 2009 is a bad month, but it’s not as bad as it looks. 

Software wise, again due to April 2008 being a huge month, there is an overall drop in sales. In the top 10, Wii comfortably held the most market share, followed far behind by the Xbox 360, and the PS3 even further behind. Nintendo’s usual suspects, Wii Fit, Wii Play and Mario Kart, were responsible for this, and the only Wii titles in the top 10. Where are the third party titles, you have to wonder. April wasn’t a great months for hit releases either, with the sequel “The Godfather II” being the only notable release. It was the top selling Xbox 360 game, and outsold the PS3 version by 1.7:1 (the PS3 version was the top selling PS3 game, coming at 10th on the top 10 list). Resident Evil 5 for the Xbox 360 was again in the top 5, just behind The Godfather II – it’s strange to see an iconic PlayStation title doing much better on the Xbox 360 than on the PS3. RE5 on the 360 outsold the PS3 version by 1.6:1 last month, although the 360 enjoys a 2:1 lead over the PS3 in hardware numbers. This means, at least for the hit games, the PS3 is doing better than expected, which is some good news at last for Sony. The Wii had 42.7% of the top 10, Xbox 360 on 19.4% and the PS3 with only 4.6%. The rest, 33.3%, belonged to the DS, making April 2009 definitely one to remember for the portable console. Here’s the complete list of the top 10 software sales:

1. Wii Fit w/Board (Wii, Nintendo) – 471,000
2. Pokemon Platinum (DS, Nintendo) – 433,000
3. Mario Kart w/ Wheel (Wii, Nintendo) – 210,000
   
4. Wii Play w/ Remote (Wii, Nintendo) – 170,000
5. The Godfather II (Xbox 360, EA) – 155,000
6. Resident Evil 5 (Xbox 360, Capcom) – 122,000
   
7. New Super Mario Bros. (DS, Nintendo) – 119,000 
8. Mario Kart (DS, Nintendo) – 112,000
9. Guitar Hero Aerosmith (Xbox 360, Activision) – 110,000
10. The Godfather II (PS3, EA) – 91,000

Can a recovery take place in May? Looking at the Amazon top 10 charts now, it doesn’t look like a great month for games. PS3’s exclusive Infamous might make a dent, but it may come too late in May to make a huge difference to May’s figures. I’m going to predict a slight recovery for the PS3, as PS2 sales will start to drop again following the price cut, and PS3 has nowhere to go but up, especially if Infamous can help to lift sales up. Everything else the same as it was this month, I suppose.

See you next month.

The February 2009 NPD figures are in. Typically a slow month, February 2009 will prove to be an important one particularly for Sony as it hopes that end a quarter long streak that has seen all of its consoles fall in sales compared to the same time last year, in a time when all other console sales were up. With Killzone 2 being introduced late in February, it may just give Sony what it needs, or will it be a case of too little and too late (certainly, very late in the month). You can read last month’s analysis here. The figures are from NPD, a marketing research firm that releases games console sale data every month.

The figures for US sales in February 2009 are below, ranked in order of number of sales (February 2008  figures also shown, including percentage change):

NPD February 2009 Game Console US Sales Figures

NPD Game Console Total US Sales Figures (as of February 2009)

My prediction from last month was:

So my prediction would be a slight increase in PS3 sales, with lesser increases for the Wii and Xbox 360, but with the ordering of consoles remaining largely unchanged. It’s unlikely that the PS3 will outsell the same time last year, but it may have better luck in March when Killzone 2 may help in terms of hardware numbers (it’s late release in February won’t affect that month’s figures).  

I think I was largely right. In fact, I think I was spot on with pretty much everything. PS3 sales did increase, and it did increase more so than the Wii and Xbox 360, but not enough to change the ordering. And I was almost wrong on the “PS3 won’t outsell same time last year” statement, but almost wrong still means I was right. As you will see from the software figures, Killzone 2 did “kill”, but it wasn’t enough to give the hardware numbers a boost.

And while Sony were so close to breaking their bad luck streak in terms of hardware underselling compared to last year, all three PlayStation consoles again recorded sales drops compared to the same time last year. Both Nintendo and Microsoft again also managed to outsell the same period last year, with the Xbox 360 recording a huge jump and its best “non-holiday” sales since the release of Halo 3 (despite having no A-list exclusives this month). The PS3 was so close to outselling February 2008, and I think had Killzone 2 been released a week earlier in February (it was released on February 27), then the PS3 would have done it. But as they say, timing is everything and with Killzone 2 straddling between two months, it might just distribute sales enough where neither February nor March will mean good enough numbers for the PS3 for it to outsell 2008.

The PS2 is clearly on its last legs, and the PSP’s momentum has stalled, so Sony has to put everything into the PS3 now as it no longer has any other options. And the decisi0n to release Killzone 2 so close to the end of the reporting period may have hurt the chance of adding a number 1 title to the PS3’s list of achievements (or is that Trophies?), even if it meant taking a hit in Febuary. And Killzone 2 further highlights why high hardware prices are a bad idea, because can you imagine this title not being number 1 if it had been released on the Xbox 360 or the Wii? Sony’s insistence on high hardware prices has meant that they have missed out on a lot of revenue from their high profile release (such as Killzone 2, and LittleBigPlanet, as well as multi-platform releases such as GTA IV) – I don’t have access to Sony’s accounts, but can the extra loss in hardware revenue from faster price drops be offset by the extra gains in software revenue (thanks to the superior number of hardware in people’s homes)? And would this have meant that the total loss in revenue would have been  manageable enough and much more sensible from a mid term perspective? But only Sony knows what they can and cannot afford to do.

The sales surge for the Xbox 360 is hard to explain. There were no price drops, no hit releases (exclusive or otherwise, Street Fighter IV included), and nothing that would suggest an increase was on the cards. Perhaps its status as the cheapest console on the market is finally providing dividends as the economic situation worsens. The Wii and the Nintendo brand contines its march towards total domination of this game console generation. 

Let’s get to the software charts. This is at least one area that will give Sony a much needed boost, because the PS3 top 10 sales finally managed to beat the Xbox 360 sales. Neither got near the Nintendo numbers, of course, but it just shows what a critics favourite like Killzone 2 can do for software sales. Another bit of good news is that despite 2:1 hardware advantage for the Xbox 360, the multi-platform Street Fighter IV managed to sell practically even for both the 360 and PS3. This either means that PS3 owners loved SFIV more than Xbox 360 owners, or that at least on the software front, Microsoft is about to lose its status as the console with the best software sales ratio. Killzone 2, as mentioned earlier, did quite well but not enough to seriously challenge Wii Fit/Play, nor SFIV. So good news for Sony as they 23.6% of the market, which beat Microsoft’s 20.7%. All the Nintendo “must-have” releases are still on the list, for both the Wii and DS, so they took nearly 56% of the top 10. Here’s the complete list of the top 10 software sales:

1. Wii Fit w/Board (Wii, Nintendo) – 644,000   
2. Street Fighter IV (Xbox 360, Capcom) – 446,000
   
3. Street Fighter IV (PS3, Capcom) – 403,000
4. Wii Play w/ Remote (Wii, Nintendo) – 386,000
5. Killzone 2 (PS3, Sony) – 323,000
6. Mario Kart w/ Wheel (Wii, Nintendo) – 263,000
7. Call of Duty: World at War (Xbox 360, Activision Blizzard) – 193,000
8. Mario Kart (DS, Nintendo) – 145,000
9. New Super Mario Bros. (DS, Nintendo) – 144,000 
10. Guitar Hero: World Tour (Wii, Activision Blizzard) – 136,000

Next month should be a big one for software sales, as Resident Evil 5, Halo Wars, and GTA: Chinatown Wars all make their way onto their respective consoles. There is also the left over sales from Killzone 2, and any hardware effects that may show up. My prediction for March 2009 would be that PS3 sales finally beat the 2008 equivalent, thanks largely to Killzone 2 and RE5 (March 2008 was also a very slow month). The ordering of the hardware sales would still remain the same though, as RE5 is no longer platform exclusive for the first time. It will be interesting on the software front, because you would imagine RE5 selling better on the 360, although perhaps only by the same margin as SFIV, and Killzone 2 should do better than the averagely rated (relatively speaking) Halo Wars. 

See you next month.

The January 2009 NPD figures are in, and this month will usually see huge drops in sales due to the end of the holiday shopping period. The drop from the same time last year was even bigger due to stock shortages, but this year at least this problem should not occur as the console manufacturers have correctly predicted the booming sales that’s make all other industries jealous. The PlayStation brand has taken a beating in the last three months of figures, so with a new year, Sony will be hoping for good news. Nintendo will be hoping that the Wii did better this time than the same time last year, where stock issues meant very low sales. You can read last month’s analysis here. The figures are from NPD, a marketing research firm that releases games console sale data every month.

The figures for US sales in January are below, ranked in order of number of sales (January 2008  figures also shown, including percentage change):

NPD January 2009 Game Console US Sales Figures

NPD Game Console Total US Sales Figures (as of January 2009)

My prediction from last month was:

Next month will see a huge drop in terms of sales, which is part of the usual cycle. Stock availability could affect sales, and usually the better selling consoles will do worse in January compared to the lower selling ones that still have plenty of stock left. So if Wii, DS and Xbox 360 sales struggle, while PS3 sales improve in comparison despite no popular new games or price cuts, then this is one possible explanation. 

The reality pretty much panned out the same as the prediction, except stock shortages weren’t really an issue, unlike January 2008 (for the Wii, and at least according to Microsoft, for the 360 as well). This helped push the Wii, DS and Xbox 360 up compared to the same time last year, with Nintendo yet again able to pull of amazing 100%+ increases. The Xbox 360’s 34% surge, while less impressive, has establishes the console as the third most popular of all gaming systems in the US.

Again, it’s a month of “reds” for the PlayStation brand, with drops across the board. The PS2 aside, whose drop is understandable, the PS3 and PSP figures are obviously disappointing. The drop for the PS3 figures almost exactly matches up to the increase in Xbox 360 numbers, not saying that both are related, but that’s the obvious connection people will make. The PSP, at times competitive with the DS, is now completely outclassed. Sony might need to cut PS3 prices now not only to save the PS3, but also to save the PSP, which had a period of success last year when PSP integration features were improved on the PS3. I think there’s been enough said on what Sony need to do, and it’s quite obvious, but whether they can afford to do it or not, that’s another question. But it’s getting to the point where Sony can no longer not afford some actions, not if they want to ensure the PlayStation brand is the leader in gaming (probably too late for it this generation, but at the very least, ensure it’s not in last place).

Without stock shortages, both the Wii and Xbox 360 managed to sell in greater numbers than the same time last year, the Wii in particular. It is worth noting that none of the top 3 consoles, the Wii, DS and 360, have shown any signs of suffering from the economic meltdown that’s starting to affect almost all other businesses. It is also no surprise to find that these 3 consoles are the cheaper ones on the market, both by actual cost and long term value (availability of low cost games, etc.).  The Wii still hasn’t had (or needed) a price drop, even after 2 years of sales, and does not appear to need many new ‘must-have’ titles to maintain the momentum (if anything, it’s picked up). This makes the Wii very unique in terms of video game consoles, and probably electronic devices in general. The lower cost of making more and more Wiis will help Nintendo realise a profit even without having to sell any games, which again is unheard of in the video gaming industry.

Okay, enough with the Nintendo love-in. Let’s have a look at the software. Which means the love-in will have to continue, I guess. One of the best, if not the best, month for Nintendo as Fit, Play and Kart again dominated the software charts. The Xbox 360 took the next 3 spots – the charting Xbox 360 titles will usually point to the month’s newly released, and popular, multi-platform titles (or in the absence of such titles, last month’s new hit releases). Two Nintendo DS titles made it into the top 10, including a new Mario game which will always sell well (and brings backs some old memories), and also oddly the very old Mario Kart game again (is it becoming the “Wii Play” for the DS?). The last spot was taken by the Xbox 360 again. Nothing for the PS3, in fact, nothing other than one single entry for the PlayStation brand in the top 20 (that was for Call of Duty: World at War for the PS3 coming at 11). It seems that the better Nintendo does, the poorer Sony becomes, while Microsoft sells the most games to “hardcore” gamers. 61% of all games sold in the top 10 were for the Wii, 29% for the Xbox 360 and 10% for the DS. Sony gets a big fat zero for the first time since I’ve started tracking software numbers (since January 2008). Here’s the complete list of the top 10 software sales:

1. Wii Fit w/Board (Wii, Nintendo) – 777,000   
2. Wii Play w/ Remote (Wii, Nintendo) – 415,000
3. Mario Kart w/ Wheel (Wii, Nintendo) – 292,000
4. Left 4 Dead (Xbox 360, Electronic Arts) – 243,000
5. Call of Duty: World at War (Xbox 360, Activision Blizzard) – 235,000
6. Skate 2 (Xbox 360, Electronic Arts) – 199,000
7. Guitar Hero: World Tour (Wii, Activision Blizzard) – 155,000
   
8. New Super Mario Bros. (DS, Nintendo) – 135,000 
9. Mario Kart (DS, Nintendo) – 132,000
   
10. Lord of the Rings: Conquest (Xbox 360, Electronic Arts) – 113,000

If last year’s stats are to be believed, then sales should pick up a bit for all concerned, but with stock shortages affecting figures last year and nothing like this right now, this might ring more true for the PS3 than the Wii/360. So my prediction would be a slight increase in PS3 sales, with lesser increases for the Wii and Xbox 360, but with the ordering of consoles remaining largely unchanged. It’s unlikely that the PS3 will outsell the same time last year, but it may have better luck in March when Killzone 2 may help in terms of hardware numbers (it’s late release in February won’t affect that month’s figures).  

See you next month.