Archive for the ‘PS3, PS4’ Category

Weekly News Roundup (17 June 2012)

Sunday, June 17th, 2012

Hello to you on this a rainy, windy and cold Sunday here in Melbourne, Australia. How’s the week been treating you? Not too badly I hope. Another rather quiet news week, but maybe I was just too busy to pay attention. A little bit from column A, a little bit from column B, I suspect. Well, whatever news I did find, they were quite interesting, so let’s get started.

Copyright

The fallout (not to be confused with another, in my opinion quite fantastic, gaming franchise) from the Diablo 3 DRM choice continues this week, as videos emerged showing an item duplication exploit in Diablo 3 – the kind of thing that always-on DRM, at least according to Blizzard, was supposed to stop.

The video, originating from South Korea, showed a gamer doing the very thing that Blizzard was afraid of – duping items. The exploit was so damaging that Blizzard had to shut off South Korean game servers while a fix was rolled out. Thousands of gamers were also banned for using this and other cheating methods. Duplication hacks can be extremely damaging for Blizzard, while profitable for hackers – Diablo 3 features a real money Auction House where users can sell their hard-earned or not so hard-earned virtual in-game items, and as a result, item duping in D3 becomes just as bad as counterfeit money is in the real economy.

Diablo 3 Auction House

Real money trading of in-game items has made Diablo 3 a tempting target for hackers and scammers

So despite the harsh “always-on” DRM that Blizzard chose to employ for Diablo 3, which the company itself says wasn’t for anti-piracy but for protection against cheaters and hackers, it has not really lived up to expectations. If anything, the inclusion of real money transactions, which necessitates the use of an always-on DRM/access control system, has provided hackers with extra incentive to find exploits and loopholes that they can profit from. For us gamers though, it meant a frustrating (and still frustrating) gaming experience, although some have already started making good money from the Auction House.

And I’m still not convinced that Blizzard couldn’t have created an offline mode for the game. By implementing some kind of local virtual server that the game can connect to, this could provide emulation of an online experience, without the need to actually be online all the time. This may very well be the tact that the piracy community will use to crack the game, so we’ll have to wait and see if they can help out D3 gamers by creating an unofficial offline mode.

But some in the gaming industry are already pointing at Diablo 3’s fantastic sales figures and using that as justification for always-on DRM – at the other end of the spectrum, DRM-free gaming is also booming. And not only that, the “pay what you want” pricing model is also providing to be more than effective too. The latest Humble Indie Bundle (the 5th edition, for those keeping count) has managed to sell within a cat’s whisker of 600,000 bundles, raking in over $5 million in the process. Despite the basic bundle being available for as low as a penny, on average, gamers chose to pay $8.53 for the 4 game (plus 4 bonus games) bundle, proving that, if the price is right, people will pay. More remarkable is the fact that former buyers of the bundle, Steam sale addicts, and indie gaming enthusiasts would mostly already have most of the games on offer (I had 5 of the 8), so even from a shrinking sales pool, this latest bundle has managed to beat all expectations, and has actually earned twice as much as the last bundle.

The Humble Indie Bundle V

The Humble Indie Bundle V has generated more than $5 million in sales, from nearly 600,000 bundles sold

While I’m sure Diablo 3 raked in a lot more money than all the Humble Indie Bundles combined (and then some), then again, none of the games in the Humble bundle took 10 years to materialise either. And all were made with considerably less budget than Blizzard’s latest hit. At the very least, the Humble bundles prove that DRM-free can work, and so can the pay what you want model, even with the availability of both free pirated, and free (well, almost free – a penny) legal ways to get the games.

For those still holding out hope for a way to retrieve their legally uploaded files from Megaupload, especially after last week’s news that the MPAA is not totally against the idea, the news doesn’t look very promising. Responding to a lawsuit filed by an affected Megaupload user, US government prosecutors says that while they were responsible for shutting down Megaupload, they’re no longer responsible for the servers that now holds user files. Copies of the important data have already been made by the government, and as a result, they no longer have “possession” of the original data and can’t grant or deny access to them. It seems the data is now back in the possession of Megaupload’s former web host, Carpathia – data that is costing the company $9,000 a day to host. With the government also against unfreezing Megaupload assets to allow the company to pay Carpathia to keep the data alive (data that could also help Megaupload’s case), the most likely outcome, unless the court intervenes, will see the data completely wiped, and any hope of recovery gone. Before this happens, the government says users can pay Carpathia for access, and then acquire the services of forensic experts (at further cost) to retrieve any data – an unrealistic proposal due to the thousands of dollars this would require. The other “alternative”, the government says, is for users to sue both Carpathia and Megaupload for breach of contract relating to the storage of their files, again, also very unrealistic.

In other words, the government is washing their hands of any responsibility in the matter. They closed down Megaupload and then decide to not give two craps about the resulting collateral damage. But as screwed up as this is, it’s also an important lesson for those that are relying on the “cloud” to store their digital assets. Cloud storage will usually prevent data loss as a result of hardware or software failure, but it won’t stop things like user error (“hmm, that big red button that says “DELETE ALL” looks tempting – I wonder what it does …”), hacked or banned accounts, or as in Megaupload’s case, catastrophic failure. So it’s best to have copies of your files both in online *and* offline locations, or at the very least, at two different cloud providers.

High Definition

Is Blu-ray on the way out? Anthony Wood thinks so. But then again, he’s the CEO of the company that makes Roku, a popular little streaming set-top box, and both Blu-ray, the disc, and Blu-ray players are competitors.

Roku 2 XS

Roku currently provides a level of service that Blu-ray players and Smart TVs cannot provide with their in-built streaming apps, according to Roku’s CEO

So will Blu-ray be obsolete in four year’s time, as Wood predicts? If in four year’s time, most homes can access the Internet at speeds far greater than today’s average, then yes, this could be a possibility. If not, then the most efficient way to deliver the GBs of data needed for each HD movie (and if 4Kx2K become more common, the tens of GBs could grow to hundreds of GBs), might still be found on some kind of physical media, even if isn’t Blu-ray.

Whatever happens though. I for one hopes that ownership, and preferably ownership of something physical, is still reality 4 or 10 years down the track. I’m a huge supporter of cloud based streaming and all that, but I also love being able to hold something in my hands, or display something in my TV room, and I think a lot of movie lovers are like me in this regard.

Gaming

In gaming news, the May NPD results have been released, but once again, only Microsoft took the risk of releasing hardware figures. That’s probably because they won the month again with 40% of the home based console market share, but only 160,000 units sold. That’s a 40% decline compared to the same month last year, and you can see why many in the industry are so worried (and why “some” have stopped releasing detailed hardware figures).

With the next gen consoles from Microsoft and Sony not arriving until 2013 (got a news story on the next Xbox that was too late for publishing for this WNR, so I’ll cover it early next week), and the Wii U only coming at the end of the year, things are unlikely to pick up until then.

I’m still optimistically (but perhaps also foolishly) hoping that someone will leak the hardware data for the Wii or the PS3 in the next few days, and so the NPD monthly feature can resume, but it’s not looking good at the moment. If it doesn’t happen, I’ll get into more details about the May NPD in the next WNR.

Nothing much left to say in this WNR, so let’s call it a day. See you next week.

Weekly News Roundup (10 June 2012)

Monday, June 11th, 2012

Hello to you on this fine (or maybe not so fine) Sunday (may very well be Monday already, depending on how late this WNR gets sent out). A fairly quiet news week again, but like always, we shall persevere. My copy of Diablo III actually did arrive early this week, but I haven’t had much time to play it yet. The one time I did, the server had to go down for maintenance, which meant that my play session was not only cut short, but I also lost unsaved progress. The fact that a server maintenance could stop me playing the single player game doesn’t give me much confidence that, say 5 years from now, people will still be able to play this game without interruption (or even be able to play it at all). If game publishers insist on using “always-on” DRM, the least they could do is to guarantee the number of years that I’ll be able to play the game I purchased – 10 years would be ideal, but I suspect that this would cost quite a lot, and a lot of planning and risk management would be required to allow for this  (eg. obsolete server software/hardware, and how this affects compatibility with the game server software).

Copyright

Once again, we have mainly copyright news. That may sound strange considering E3 and everything, but really, I just couldn’t get that excited over this year’s event, since we already know much about the Wii U, and neither Sony nor Microsoft stepped up to the plate with an official announcement of their next consoles (although it hasn’t stopped the rumours from flying around).

Diablo 3 - Error 37

Diablo 3's dreaded Error 37 has gotten the South Korean branch of Blizzard into trouble with the government

Anyway, copyright stuff. No, wait, back to the game stuff for a sec. Continuing the Diablo 3 theme from the intro, and the outro from last week’s WNR, Blizzard’s South Korean offices were raided by the country’s Fair Trade Commission (FTC) over issues related with Diablo 3’s DRM. Just like gamers in other parts of the world, South Korean gamers were also frustrated by the game’s launch day fiasco, and many went and sought a refund for the game. But the game’s terms and conditions apparently does not allow for refunds, and this is when gamers got the FTC involved. While this actual story is less about the DRM, and more about Blizzard’s refund policy, the issue of whether DRM problems can be counted as a “product fault” will be examined by the investigation.

As I said in the intro, there ought to be some guarantees for games that require server based DRM. An uptime guarantee, say 99% in any given month (which isn’t as impressive as it sounds – 1% of a month is about 7 hours, and that’s still quite a long outage), and a guarantee that the game will be supported for how ever long the game is expected to be played (if the next Diablo sequel is as long coming as this one, then 10 years ought to be just about right). If publishers want to make games into services, rather than products, then it’s reasonable for gamers to expect a certain level of quality of service. I feel though that the $50 gamers pay is no way near enough money to cover long term server support (hence why games like World of Warcraft have monthly fees), so I don’t expect games like Diablo 3 to be playable in 5 year’s time, unless the in-game purchases can keep the servers running. And in the same way, game publishers should understand that this kind of DRM can be very expensive over the long term, and they need to consider whether it’s worth it financially or not.

Last week, the RIAA accused Google of not doing enough on DMCA take-downs, and instead, want the search engine to perma-ban sites like The Pirate Bay, as opposed to having to constantly submit DMCA notices. This week, The Pirate Bay responded by welcoming any blanket bans of torrent indexers, saying that this would actually boost traffic numbers for the world’s most popular indexer. The reasoning is that, as the biggest brand in torrents, TPB would suffer much less from the removal of Google referrals (which they say, at best, only accounts for 10% of their traffic) compared to other torrent sites. Whereas Google often still redirects people to other less well known torrent sites, if Google stopped showing torrent results, this could mean more and more people would simply bypass Google altogether and log straight on to TPB. What’s bad for other indexer (and in a way, Google as well), will ultimately be good for The Pirate Bay, since you have to pretty naive to think that just because Google can’t provide you with torrent results, that people would still stop pirating.

And TPB’s IP address war of attrition continues. With last week’s newly released IP address just added to the banned list, a new IP address has been released – 194.71.107.80 becomes 194.71.107.81 (the old IP address will still continue to work in countries without the censorship). So round 2 begins, and I wonder how many rounds BREIN, the Dutch anti-piracy agency, will last before they start whining again. The TPB has also jumped on the IPv6 bandwagon, meaning those that have migrated over to the new IP address system will have a new way to access TPB, one that’s not blocked (so far) by any filters (as most failed to take into account IPv6). Plus, you can use one of the many IPv6 to IPv4 tunnel services as a pseudo-proxy to bypass the filter too, for example, thepiratebay.se.ipv4.sixxs.org. Just goes to show how pointless these multi-million dollar filtering implementations are, but if they want to play the IP merry go around in the IPv6 domain, then I’m sure TPB will gladly oblige too.

Those caught in the crossfires of the US government’s war on Megaupload, that is those that had used the cloud hosting service legally, may yet get back access to their files, after the MPAA signalled it had no general objections against the idea. However, it did have some specific objections, in that they don’t want anyone involved with Megaupload to be handling any system for (legal) file retrievals, and they also want to ensure only legal content can be downloaded. While probably reasonable requests, how practical meeting them would be is a different question altogether. I can’t see the required time, effort and money being spent to build a system which would allow for this, and the MPAA rightly says that even Megaupload’s user policy doesn’t guarantee continued access to stored files. The lesson here is that while the cloud is a great idea, and it’s made things very convenient, backups stored in multiple locations, ideally offline too, is still as important as ever.

Lane Pryce - Mad Men

Legal options for hit show like Mad Men are very limited here in Australia - and if I was feeling mean, I could post another picture of Lane Pryce that would be a huge spoiler for those who haven't seen the latest episode

And finally, an Australian online survey has found that 1 in 10 have stopped pirating film and TV content, and most say the availability of more legal options was one of the reasons they’ve stopped. There were also some other interesting findings. Only 10% of those surveyed downloaded pirated TV shows and movies on a weekly basis, and out of this group, 72% say they’re doing it because there’s simply no legal alternative available. Being in Australia, this is a fairly accurate reflection of the legal scene, especially for TV based content, and for hit shows like Game of Thrones or Mad Men. Someone here (or there, in the US) is making deals (and profiting greatly from it) that’s ensuring we only get time delayed releases. That may have worked in the past, but in this day and age, even a 24 hour delay might as well be an eternity. Both considering how quickly the same content is available via the illegal channels, as well as the spoiler-ridden and at the same time, ubiquitous, nature of the Internet itself.

Or “there’s no legal option” could simply be an excuse – a convenient one because it’s mostly true, but still believable to use when it isn’t (for example when the content is available on iTunes at extortionate prices, although you could argue about the viability of such an option). I think anti-piracy really has to be about getting rid of these excuses first, by providing legal options (at a price that makes it a viable option), and once you make piracy simply a moral decision and one that’s solely based on the fact that the content is free, then at the very least, the rights holders would have more justification to implement tougher piracy prevention methods (being careful not to create new excuses in the process).

And so we come to the end of another quite short (and late) WNR. Can’t be helped I’m afraid. Well, it can, but that would require too much work (or just work), so no, it can’t be helped. See you next week.

Weekly News Roundup (20 May 2012)

Sunday, May 20th, 2012

Welcome to this slightly late edition of the WNR. Normally, I would link to the latest edition of the monthly NPD analysis here for your consumption, but as it turns out, neither Nintendo nor Sony decided to release hardware figures for the month. This means that there’s no NPD analysis for this month, an all too frequent occurrence lately. I’ll try to give you what I have in the gaming section.

Another fairly substantial news week, well in my opinion anyway, so let’s get started.

Copyright

In copyright news, let’s start with the MPAA’s response to the recent well publicized filtering of The Pirate Bay, happening as I type across Europe.

Unsurprisingly, the MPAA backed the recent court decisions around Europe to have The Pirate Bay blocked, and also rather unsurprisingly, spun this form of censorship as being ultimately good for the consumer. The reasoning, they say, is that by removing the threat of websites like The Pirate Bay, it gives the creative community more incentive to not only create, but also to “provide consumers with content when they want it”. Apparently, the mere fact that consumers want it is not enough of a reason for the “creative community” to cater to their needs, but you also need the right environment (although the real creative community, the artists and the like, usually have no power to decide how something is released, a decision that’s usually left to men in suits). This might at least be a point you could argue, but only if filtering actually works.

VHS Tape

If the MPAA had their way, this VHS tape would have never existed - photo by Jared C. Benedict, Creative Commons License

It’s also rich hearing it from the MPAA, considering their own history with innovations, to suggest that websites like The Pirate Bay are the only reason why they’ve not yet bothered to fulfil the needs of today’s consumers. Remember that these were the guys that were against the VCR, were for region control that barred consumers from getting content “when they want it”, and possibly still pretty angry at the whole Interweb thing. Apple, Netflix, Amazon have done much more to fulfil the consumer’s needs in recent times, and the interesting thing here is that all of these companies are tech companies, not film or music companies.

If anything, it’s BitTorrent and The Pirate Bay that has forced the industry to be more malleable to the demands of consumers. They can no longer afford to fool around with release windows (which are now far shorter than they were a decade ago), with region control (much less common on Blu-rays than compared to DVDs), with price control (note the ever decreasing price of discs), and they’re now forced to support services like Netflix, even if it means making less money. They’ve had to compete with the likes of The Pirate Bay out of necessity, but maybe they’re hoping censorship can allow them to turn back the clock, although  in my opinion – and if you’ll allow me to use another cliche – the genie may already be out of the bottle.

And does piracy really affect revenue that much? A new research paper suggests that pre-release piracy, the worst kind according to the MPAA and RIAA, may actually help sales. The research paper by North Carolina State University’s Robert Hammond suggests that pre-release piracy may actually help album sales. No theory is given as to why this may be the case, but I suspect it’s because piracy has become just another way to advertise. This follow another study a couple of months ago which found no correlation between pre-release movie piracy and US movie ticket sales. Both studies seems to go against industry sponsored studies, and the common believe that, piracy, especially pre-release piracy, is costing the industry billions. But the industry has never really looked at the reasons why people prefer pirated content, instead, choosing to believe it’s simply a case of freeloaders “stealing” because they’re freeloaders.

People pirate because they might not have the money to pursue the legal alternatives; or they never felt it was worth the money and want to try it out for free; or they might feel piracy is more accessible than the legal alternatives; or they just like to get stuff for free, even if they have the money for it. Two of the above scenarios will not lead to any extra revenue, no matter how many websites you block, while one of them is clearly the fault of the content owner. Only the last scenario, probably the least likely (that people who have loads of money are shunning the likes of  iTunes and Blu-rays in favour of manually loading MP3s onto iPhones, and watching blurry movies on their laptops), derives any benefit from blocking out piracy altogether, which in itself is a fantastically unrealistic proposition (although I suspect Hollywood execs are used to the fantastically unrealistic, considering they produce so much of the same crap for our consumption).

Speaking of unrealistic propositions, Microsoft is providing funding to a Russian company working on a way to block BitTorrent downloads. With no details being available about how it works, and little detail about how it actually works in the real world, there’s not much one can actually say about it. Most of these types of blocks works by seeding fake data into streams, and this is not new. BitTorrent is incredibly adept at filtering out the bad and leaving the good, so while it may temporarily make downloads a pain, it won’t do it forever. At the end of the day, BitTorrent is just another file transfer protocol, so the problem with going after the protocol is that you’ll have a new and even more robust protocols to deal with later down the track. If you really want to solve the problem of piracy, you’ve got to go back and examine the reasons why people choose to pirate in the first place (and take note of the people who don’t have a valid legal alternative, due to regional restrictions or release windows, or unrealistic pricing, and maybe offer them a choice).

Diablo 3 - Error 37

The dreaded Error 37 plagued Diablo III on launch day, as it becomes the highest profile DRM-fail in the history of gaming

A lot of people saw it coming, but as expected, the launch of Diablo III turned into a DRM-tastic disaster for Blizzard this week. One of the most anticipated games of the year (or decade), with one of the most controversial DRM decisions in regards to the single player campaign, and a near simultaneous global launch – a recipe for disaster, unless Blizzard go beyond the call of duty to provide adequate servers for all. Unfortunately, they did not.

Back when Blizzard first announced the controversial DRM, they were keen to stress that it wasn’t piracy related. Rather, it was suppose to be a sort of elaborate anti-cheating system, although that seemed confusing at the time for a game that was always largely a single player experience. But as we now know more about the game, and especially the built-in Auction House system, it’s much more clear why Blizzard went with the “always-on” DRM approach (and they were right, it’s not about piracy, or at least not all about it). In order to ensure the subscription-free Diablo III doesn’t cannibalize Blizzard’s major subscription based property, WoW, and to take the “black market” trade for in-game items in-house, the Auction House system was devised as the solution. But in order for the market place to remain rational, cheating, hacking and other unfair tactics had to be stopped – the always-on DRM is Blizzard’s solution to this. It’s a valid explanation as to why it’s present, and why it may be needed, but having a valid, non anti-piracy related explanation, won’t please diehard fans, who were none too pleased with the Auction House addition in the first place. But Diablo III is the only Diablo game in town, so to speak, so it’s not as if they have a choice if they want their fix of Diablo (disclaimer: I’ve purchased Diablo, even though I should know better).

But for games where it’s easy to make the decision not to bother buying, I’d caution publishers against taking gamers for granted in this way. DRM should either not exist, or it should be invisible, as otherwise, it becomes a liability.

High Definition

Does the world need another physical media based format, even if it is a royalty free, open standard, based one?

Well, whether you think one is needed or not, free software advocate (free as in freedom, not as in beer) Terry Hancock is going to make one. Dubbed “Lib-Ray”, it’s based on a MKV container, using the VP8 video codec, with an HTML5 based menu system, with everything stored on SD media. The name may sound similar, but this is definitely not a Blu-ray challenger (and not intended to be), although it could give independent filmmakers a nice standardized way to distribute a physical copy of their films, without having to pay the likes of Sony, Panasonic and Microsoft for the privilege. It’s not the worst idea in the world, although without real hardware support, the format will have a long and hard struggle for acceptance, even by the indie scene.

Gaming

Very much related to Blu-ray, but also very much a gaming related news item, was a former Microsoft boss’s take on the relative “success” of the Xbox 360, and why it actually happened.

Robbie Bach, the former president of Microsoft’s Entertainment & Devices Division, says that Sony’s ill planned and badly managed transition from the hugely successful PS2 (70% market share) to the expensive, delayed PS3 (30% market share) made it possible for the Xbox brand to triple its market share during the same period. The expense and delay had a lot to do with the inclusion of Blu-ray support for the PS3, although it did help Sony win the HD format wars.

Sony PlayStation 2

The PS2 dominated the video games market with 70% market share, but the transition to the PS3 was problematic for Sony, not just because developers were actively backing a second horse in the race - the Xbox 360

The ease in which developers could develop on the Xbox 360, compared to the PS3, also seems to be a factor (something that even Sony admits), but the same developers also had a vested interest in seeing Sony’s standing knocked down a peg or two – nobody wants to publish in a market with only one big player, and support and investment by publishers like Activision and EA, in Microsoft’s then new console, made it possible for a second major player to emerge, according to Bach. Of course at the time, nobody expected Nintendo to ultimately come up with the most popular console of this generation, but that didn’t really change the strategy for publishers much, as the Wii was never a serious platform revenue wise for them.

As mentioned earlier, lack of NPD hardware stats means our monthly NPD analysis is not going to happen, and so I’ll talk about it in brief here instead.

The Xbox 360 was the most popular home-based console for the month, with 42% market share amongst the home based console, selling 236,000 consoles (down 21% compared to the same month last year). This leaves 326,000 units sold between the other two, and using a similar split as last month for the Wii/PS3, then it’s about 214,500 for the PS3, and 111,500 for the Wii – but the split is probably a bit more even, as the Wii numbers looks too small, and Easter is usually kinder to the cheaper consoles.

Software wise, Prototype 2 dominated, but it looks like it sold less than 236,000 copies on all platforms combined, which is pretty weak for a top selling title. Kinect Star Wars was in second place, decent in terms of ranking, but still weak in terms of actual unit sales probably.

Hopefully, normality resumes for the NPD analysis next month, but we’ll have to wait and see.

And with that, we come to the end of another WNR. Hope you’ve had a good week, hope the next week will be better, and see you again in seven days.

Game Consoles – March 2012 NPD Sales Figure Analysis

Monday, April 16th, 2012

The March 2012 NPD figures are out for US video game sales, and the industry is looking for any signs that indicate things may be on the up again, following a pretty poor January and February period. It is also the first time in 2012 that included the release of an A-list title, Mass Effect 3.

As NPD no longer releases full hardware sales figures, this feature is reliant on the game companies, namely Microsoft, Nintendo and Sony, to release their set of figures and based on “statement math” (that is, arithmetically calculate missing figures based on statements made). For March 2012, these are the statements made by the gaming companies:

  • Nintendo revealed that “nearly” 175,000 Wiis were sold in March (via IGN)
  • Microsoft revealed 371,000 Xbox 360 units were sold, with 42% of the home based console market share (source)
  • Sony did not reveal any figures for the PS3

A little bit of “statement maths” tells us that a little more than 337,000 PS3s were sold.

And so the figures for US sales in March 2012 are below, ranked in order of number of sales (March 2011 figures also shown when available, including percentage change):

  • Xbox 360: 371,000 (Total: 33.7 million; March 2011: 433,000 – down 14.3%)
  • PS3: 337,000 (Total: 20.7 million; March 2011: N/A)
  • Wii: 175,000 (Total: 39.3 million; March 2011: 290,000 – down 39.7%)
NPD March 2012 Game Console US Sales Figures

NPD March 2012 Game Console US Sales Figures

NPD Game Console Total US Sales Figures (as of March 2012)

NPD Game Console Total US Sales Figures (as of March 2012)

My prediction was:

March is traditionally a slightly slower month than February, so while the year-on-year downward trend may continue, there is the release of an A-list title in Mass Effect 3. The hardware sales order should remain the same.

The release of Mass Effect 3 really didn’t help hardware numbers, and March was, as expected, down compared to February, with the hardware order exactly the same as last month as well.

For the Xbox 360, this marks the 15 months in a row that the console has beaten the Wii and the PS3 as the best selling console for the month – a terrific result, and surprising considering what had happened just before the run began (the Wii had a huge lead for the first couple of years, and the PS3 Slim/price cut seems to have rejuvenated the system – then the Xbox 360 released its own “Slim” version, followed shortly by Kinect, and it has never looked back). Microsoft PR was also keen to point out that “Total retail spend on the Xbox 360 platform in March (hardware, software and accessories) reached $430 million, the most for any console in the U.S. and more than the spend on PS3 and Wii combined” – for all the talk of console numbers and consecutive sales leads, in the end, it’s the income that’s important, and the 360 is doing pretty well. The stellar performance of Mass Effect 3 on the platform was also a talking point, but we’ll cover that later on when we discuss game sales.

For the PS3, March can be seen as a positive one, with the PS3 only selling 34,000 fewer units than the 360 – the gap between the two consoles has narrowed in recent month. The exiting of Wii from the competitive home based console race, making it really a two horsed race, has probably helped the PS3 absorb a few more buyers, and it was the console that appears to have done the best when you do a year-on-year comparison for March. Still, it’s looking unlikely that the PS3 would catch the Xbox 360 in this generation (in the US of course, globally, that’s a different matter), even with the price cut that analysts have been calling for (which Microsoft can easily match). But while there is still some life, not much, but some in Kinect (with Star Wars Kinect just being released, plus Kinect support for Mass Effect 3 and Skyrim), the PlayStation Move appears to be dead in the water for now.

As mentioned above, the Wii is now selling around only half as many units as the PS3, not to mention the Xbox 360, and the final few month of the console as Nintendo’s lead home based platform could be a painful few. Like most Wii owners, Nintendo are now probably very keen to move on to something better. It’s probably a bit too early to provide an eulogy for the platform, as there’s still a good chance it may still end up staying the best selling console of this generation (in the US) if the Xbox 360 can’t make up the 6 million difference between now and when it too is retired.

For games, March was all about Mass Effect 3, and having sold 1.3 million units, it was the clear number one – the next best was Resident Evil: Operation Raccoon City with less than half as many copies sold. ME3 also sold more than twice as many copies as ME2 when it first came out. For Microsoft, a little extra celebration is called for, as ME3 sold 4 times as many copies on the Xbox 360 than on the PS3. The sheer dominance of the Xbox 360 version can most likely be attributed to the first game in the series not being available on the PS3, and the nature of the series itself which allows gamers to continue on using save files from the previous game. Actually, if you look at the table below, you’ll see lots of new releases, but sales still managed to decline 26% compared to a year ago. Here’s the full software sales chart for March (new releases shown in bold):

  1. Mass Effect 3 (EA – Xbox 360, PS3, PC)
  2. Resident Evil: Operation Raccoon City (Capcom – Xbox 360, PS3)
  3. MLB 12: The Show (Sony – PS3, PSV)
  4. NBA 2K12 (Take-Two Interactive, Xbox 360, PS3, PS2, PSP, Wii, PC)
  5. SSX 2012 (EA – Xbox 360, PS3)
  6. Street Fighter X Tekken (Capcom – Xbox 360, PS3)
  7. Mario Party 9 (Nintendo – Wii)
  8. Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 3 (Activision, Xbox 360, PS3, Wii, PC)
  9. Naruto Shippuden: Ultimate Ninja Storm Generations (Namco Bandai – Xbox 360, PS3)
  10. Major League Baseball 2K12 (Take-Two Interactive, Xbox 360, PS3, PS2, PSP, Wii, NDS, PC)

So prediction time. April is traditionally a very slow month, what with the Easter break and everything, so if the industry is looking forward to better results, it will be disappointed. The sales order for the consoles should remain the same. The list of new games being released looks quite lacking indeed, with Kinect Star Wars and The Witcher 2: Assassin of Kings looking like the picks of the bunch on the 360, and hardly any new games of note on the PS3 judging by the current sales charts.

See you next month.

Weekly News Roundup (15 April 2012)

Sunday, April 15th, 2012

Welcome to another edition of the WNR. Not a very busy weeks judging by the number of news stories, so hopefully we can get this done rather quickly. I’ve been busy working on that little update for Digital Digest, which I promise will be launched next week, even if it’s still only half-completed (to be fair, it’s more like 80% completed). And you know I’m serious about meeting this rather artificial deadline by the fact that I didn’t even play that much Skyrim this past week!

One development that came too late in the week to be included was the March NPD results, and I’ll write the full report early next week.

Copyright

Let’s start with the copyright news, starting with the revelation that, even within the MPAA itself, not everyone was convinced that SOPA was the right solution for the web piracy problem.

SOPA Protests

It seems the anti-SOPA/PIPA sentiment was also alive and well within the MPAA itself (photo credits: Alain-Christian @ flickr)

When the anti-SOPA Internet Society hired a former MPAA executive, there was a bit of a controversy as you would expect. This prompted the MPAA’s former chief technology policy officer, Paul Brigner, to come out and explain a few things about his new appointment, including his apparent opposition to SOPA/PIPA. It seems Brigner left the MPAA at least partially because he felt SOPA was not the right solution to the piracy problem, and that SOPA and other “mandated technical solutions” are not “mutually compatible with the health of the Internet”. If the MPAA can’t even convince it’s own tech policy officer of the merits of SOPA, perhaps it really doesn’t have much merit at all.

But you get the feeling that the MPAA will never be fully satisfied until they get the power to not only squash any website it wants, but also to force others (like ISPs, governments) to help them do most of the heavy lifting. They will have ruined the Internet by then of course, probably only to find out that piracy has not only not slowed, but it has shifted to other parts of the Internet that can’t be easily controlled or legislated. And that, without argument, would be a far worse situation than what the one today.

It appears “blowback” invariably happens every time the copyright lobby launches a new crackdown, especially using technological measures. Every DRM has been met with an even stronger anti-DRM. Going after torrent sites have only resulted in more resilient torrenting methods. Which seems to indicate that going after video embedding, the MPAA’s latest manoeuvre, may backfire as well. The MPAA is getting itself involved in a legal showdown that originally only involved an adult entertainment company, Flava Works, and myVidster, a website that allowed people to post and share their video embeds, but  now includes the likes of Google, Facebook, the EFF, and of course, the MPAA. The tech giants saw the original court ruling, which was in favour of Flava Works, as severely flawed, setting a precedent that could have huge repercussions for the entire Internet. The judge in the case failed to make the distinction between linking/embedding, and hosting, something that could make Google Images liable for the copyright infringement of any image in its database for example, or make Facebook sharing a legal minefield. There was also the issue of a “repeat infringer” policy, or Flava Works’ claim that myVidster did not have one, and how it relates to linked/embedded and hosted infringement. It seems to me that the DMCA is rather unclear about what a “repeat infringer” is, and it seems the law leaves service providers and Internet intermediaries to define what it actually means and what kind of policy to implement, even if it is one not to the satisfactory of content holders. And since myVidster did have a working DMCA take-down process, and that it did not host anything, the ruling seems a bit harsh. Also, you have to question why Flava Works went after myVidster, instead of going after the hosts of the actual videos, the dime a dozen porn tube sites. The responsibility cannot keep on flowing downwards until you get to someone that’s easier to sue.

Hotfile

Hotfile's expert says the most downloaded files on their network were two open source files

An anti-MPAA theme seems to be developing this week, since the only other copyright story is also MPAA related. This one has to do with the MPAA’s lawsuit against Hotfile, where the MPAA, using their own expert, argued that 90% of all downloads on Hotfile were infringing content, and that the Hotfile had few, if any, legitimate uses. This week it was revealed that Hotfile’s own expert, Duke University law professor James Boyle, found that this really wasn’t the case at all. Professor Boyle found that in actual fact, the two most downloaded files on Hotfile were actually open source software, with more than 1.5 million downloads between them. And while the “90%” figure wasn’t entirely debunked, and I think it’s hard to argue against the fact that a large percentage of total downloads on file hosting sites like Hotfile and Megaupload are of the infringing nature, I think in terms of the sheer number of different uploads (ie. not taking into account the number of downloads), I suspect there is also a large percentage of non infringing files on these networks (your typical spreadsheet, Word doc, PDF, home videos and other files too large to share via email, that may very well only be downloaded once, but still a key reason why people use file hosting sites).

This really is another grey area in the law. Take an extreme example where 90% of all different files on Hotfile were non infringing, but 90% of all downloads were infringing, then would Hotfile’s non infringing uses make it legal, assuming the website had a working DMCA process? How much is too much, and how much is “enough” when it comes to anti-piracy?

High Definition

I read an interesting article this week on Forbes’ blog, where the headline was “Sony’s Blues Caused By Blu-ray”, a rather controversial title if you ask me.

The actual article, despite the headline, did cover more than just Blu-ray, and it did raise a couple of interesting points. So are Sony’s recent woes caused by Blu-ray? The recent woes being the global layoffs and the lack of profitability, of course, but to blame it on Blu-ray seems a bit counter-intuitive, considering Blu-ray seems to be the only recent success for Sony.

But what the Forbes blog, written by contributor Stephen Pope, was perhaps trying to say is that while Blu-ray is a victory for Sony, it just wasn’t a big enough victory to help the company stay profitable, and that in the end, it may even only a fleeting victory, considering the growing popularity of streaming vs discs.

Sony Blu-ray

Sony's Blu-ray victory may be short lived, as consumers are keen to move onto streaming (photo credits: mroach @ flickr)

I’ve long held the believe that Sony lost its dominance in the gaming sector by allowing the Xbox 360 to be a viable successor to the PS2, due to the one year delay in releasing the PS3 and the high initial cost of the hardware – both factors very much related to the included Blu-ray support. So while the PS3 helped Sony win the HD format wars, it also hindered Sony in keeping their dominance in the gaming arena. Looking at the current range of multi-platform games and the quality difference between the PC/Xbox 360 DVD version of the PS3 Blu-ray version, it seems the Blu-ray disc’s superior capacity has done little to actually benefit the gaming experience. And while the platform exclusives do try and make the best use of Blu-ray, they just aren’t selling enough to make a huge difference compared to the mega multi-platform franchises of Call of Duty or FIFA or GTA.

And streaming certainly does look like the future, if only for the fact that discs and the drives that read them are just not compatible with today’s portable devices. There is also a trend to consume more content (often for less money), and the physical cost and space that discs (and their packaging) requires, puts a limit on this consumption (while raising the price of it – last year, the average price people paid for streaming content was 51 cents, compared to $4.72 for discs). And access, with discs being limited to what you have purchased or what your rental outlet has in stock, just can’t compete with a streaming digital library of hundreds of thousands of titles that will never “run out of copies” (or suffer from bad scratches).

And even in terms of data storage, the 50GB Blu-ray offers, or even the 100+GB of BDXL pales in comparison to the TBs of data people need these days for their digital needs. So you have a multi-TB drive the size of a small book versus shelves full of BDs that you have to take time to burn, label, organize, that actually costs many more times than the drive – even in data storage, Blu-ray may be too little, too late.

So Pope certainly makes a few valid points, although I would say the biggest problem for Sony is that it is neither the design powerhouse that is Apple (Sony is at times too preoccupied with things like copy protection to consider things like ease of use, in my opinion), nor can it compete in the value stakes with the likes of Samsung (a company that’s also doing more on the innovation front than Sony, in my opinion).

Gaming

For gaming, the March NPD was yet another victory for the Xbox 360 (that’s 15 months in a row where the Xbox 360 has been the top selling home based console), although being the best of a bad bunch may not be such a meaningful award.

Also interesting was the news that Mass Effect 3 sold 4 times as many copies on the Xbox 360 than on the PS3 (I’m assuming this is North America only). This is perhaps a special case because the game carries on your saved progress from the last game in the series, not helped by the fact that the original game wasn’t even available on the PS3 (instead, relying on an interactive comic to record the key decision carried over from the first game). Also not helping is the fact that the PS3 is getting itself a rather bad reputation for having inferior multi-platform games, not just on ME3, but also on the other mega franchises such as Skyrim and CoD.

And I guess I also have to mention Skyrim’s upcoming Kinect support for the Xbox 360 version. The preview video looks pretty cool, although it looks like the game will only take advantage of Kinect’s voice support (and so the same features can probably be replicated via the PlayStation Eye’s microphone, if Sony really wanted it to happen by giving Bethesda some financial incentives, or making it really easy programming wise to do so. Some of the new Kinect features are already available via PC mods though, with a normal microphone, or even via the Kinect connected to your PC).

Screaming Fus Ro Dah at your TV is probably the geekiest thing anyone will do this year!

The unrelenting force of my addiction to Skyrim means that, just by mentioning it, I now have the sudden urge to play it for another hour or two. Which of course means we’ve come to the end of this WNR. See you next week.