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Game Consoles – September 2008 NPD Sales Figure Analysis

Monday, October 20th, 2008

The September 2008 NPD sales figures are out, and there are some surprises. The holiday season is just starting, and the figures show a slight lift in sales compared to the last month. We are near the few months of the year when most consoles and games are sold, and we shall see who has positioned themselves best for this upcoming holiday season. You can read last month’s analysis here. The figures are from NPD, a marketing research firm that releases games console sale data every month.

The figures for US sales in September are below, ranked in order of number of sales:

  • Wii: 687,000 (Total: 12.5 million)  
  • DS: 537,000 (Total: 22.5 million)  
  • Xbox 360: 347,000 (Total: 11.2 million)
  • PSP: 238,000 (Total: 12.7 million)
  • PS3: 232,000 (Total: 5.5 million)
  • PS2: 173,000 (Total: 42.8 million)
    • NPD September 2008 Game Console US Sales Figures

    NPD September 2008 Game Console US Sales Figures

    NPD Game Console Total US Sales Figures (as of September 2008)

    NPD Game Console Total US Sales Figures (as of September 2008)

     My prediction last month was:

    … the (Xbox 360) price cuts already done with, the momentum could swing back to the PS3 again. The Wii will sell well, and probably recover a bit just in time for the holiday season.

    I was right about the Wii, but I was wrong about the Xbox 360. As this month’s figures show, the price cuts had a huge effect on Xbox 360 sales. The surge it produced was enough to propel the Xbox 360 to the third most popular video game hardware, out-selling the PSP and the PS3.

    The Xbox 360 also out-sold the PS3 last month, but it was by a much smaller margin. I’m not sure price cuts are a long term solution, but for this holiday season at least, the Xbox 360 is positioned very well to compete with the PS3 and possibly even the Wii. Sony has already come out and said that they won’t cut PS3 prices this year, so I think Microsoft will emerge as the overall winner for 2008 in the war against the PS3. Microsoft is probably trying to achieve some sort of critical mass for the uptake of the Xbox 360, because if enough of your friends have Xbox 360’s, then you would want one too, wouldn’t you? The superior multiplayer system of the 360, despite not being free, will further drive this sort of “peer pressure”. If you want to a curr-gen console somewhat comparable to the PS3, good multiplayer support, a huge range of games at cheap prices (I saw older Xbox 360 hits like Dead Rising, Crackdown on sale for $10 this week … amazing value for hours and hours of fun), then the Xbox 360 is your only choice. The Wii is another, but only if you don’t care that your games look a bit crap on your 50″ HDTV. The Japanese sales figures which have shown the Xbox 360 out-selling the PS3 on its own turf is just the cherry on top, really.

    Sony on the other hand are probably not worried about PS3 sales being slightly flatter this year, or even the next. Remember, they’ve said they have a 10 year strategy for the PS3 and this is only the second year. They believe they can achieve something similar to the PS2, where even now, it is still selling in good quantities and there are now more than 42 million PS2s in the US alone. Of course, the PS3 is a completely different beast to the PS2, and if you want to compare apples to apples, then the Xbox 360 is positioned similarly to the PS2 and the PS3 is similar to the original Xbox – cheap, less powerful hardware with more games versus more expensive, more powerful hardware with less games. Will we ever see the mass upgrade of PS2s to PS3s? I think many of these people have already “upgraded” to the Xbox 360 as they were waiting for the PS3 to come down in price (or improve in title availability). Will they buy a PS3 as well? Maybe, or maybe they will buy a Wii instead. While I think Sony’s strategy is still safe for the time being, you cannot market the PS3 as a premium piece of equipment because people don’t really care about that, people just want good games at cheap prices. If anything, the Wii has been marketed is the exact opposite of the PS3, cheap hardware, but fun. When I think the PS3, I think superior Blu-ray player and multimedia hub, not a console you associate with “fun” (even the sleek black design doesn’t say “fun” to me, it reminds me of the monolith in 2001 to be honest). And with the economy the way it is, people are looking at saving money, not spending more even if it is a superior piece of kit.

    Speaking of the Wii, it continues to do well, and I don’t think this holiday period will be any different when it comes to demand (so get your orders in now while you still can, and don’t get left out like the last two holiday periods). The real success story of this year (and the last) has to be the Wii, because without a huge array of hit games, and without constant price drops, it has managed to remain top of the sales charts by a considerable margin. The ‘funness’ I alluded to earlier, and the fact that it isn’t expensive to start with is what I think has made it a success, and if anything, the downturn in economic conditions might help it sell more at the expense of more expensive consoles (mainly the PS3, as the Xbox 360 has become even cheaper).

    Moving on to software sales, the Xbox 360’s lead over the PS3 means it continues to do well whenever a big multi-platform game is released, and this month, it’s Star Wars: The Force Unleashed. The Wii continues to do well of course, but even though it has more hardware in people’s homes than the Xbox 360, serious gamers (those that spend serious bucks) are still the ones with Xbox 360’s it seems. The PS3 had the poorest result of the year I think, with only a single title in the top 10, and that was Star Wars. Overall, 45.1% of the top 10 sales belonged to the Xbox 360, the Wii was close behind on 40.3%, the PS3 far behind with only 9.8% and a single PS2 title rounding off the month. Here’s the complete list of the top 10 software sales:

    1. Star Wars: The Force Unleashed (Xbox 360, LucasArts) – 610,000
    2. Wii Fit w/Board (Wii, Nintendo) – 518,000   
    3. Rock Band 2 (Xbox 360, MTV/EA) – 363,000
    4. Mario Kart w/ Wheel (Wii, Nintendo) – 353,000
    5. Star Wars: The Force Unleashed (PS3, LucasArts) – 325,000
    6. Mercenaries 2 (Xbox 360, EA) – 297,000
    7. Wii Play w/ Remote (Wii, Nintendo) – 243,000
    8. Madden NFL 09 (Xbox 360, EA) – 224,000
    9. Star Wars: The Force Unleashed (PS2, LucasArts) – 223,000
    10. Madden NFL 09 (PS2, EA) – 158,000

    The next month should see an increase in sales all around, but I suspect it will be the same as this months in terms of the ranking, the Wii ahead by quite a bit, the Xbox 360 following with the PS3 third (in between are the portables, while the PS2 is sixth). Common sense really. See you next month.

    Posted in Nintendo Wii, Wii U, Switch, NPD Analysis, PS3, PS4, Xbox 360, Xbox One | 3 Comments »

    Weekly News Roundup (12 October 2008)

    Sunday, October 12th, 2008

    So I sent my PS3 back for repairs on Wednesday. I had to do it because the wireless controller/remote drop-out problem was driving me nuts. My old PS3 didn’t have this issue, so I’m hoping the next PS3 I get won’t have it either. Microsoft’s 6 day turn-around for my Xbox 360 repair is starting to look pretty good, especially considering that I got my own 360 back and not somebody else’s slightly broken, but refurbished, PS3. The news items are a bit light this week, no doubt the focus is still on the economic meltdown that is happening around the world.

    And despite the economic uncertainty, I bought myself a new monitor this week, a 24″ entry level model from Dell. It’s not the best monitor, the 16:9 ratio is a bit weird compared to other monitors (as is the only 1080 line resolution), but it does have HDMI, is perfect for connecting 1080p devices such as PS3s and Xbox 360s, and of course, there’s the price. I only paid $USD 160 for it (current price is $399) due to a stuff up on Dell’s part, and for that money, I can’t complain too much about the monitor’s deficiencies (of which there are a few, but nothing that I can’t live with, even at the regular pricing of $399). Bargain hunting is now a small hobby of mine, and it feels great to pick one up.

    CopyrightAnyway, ket’s start with copyright news. The RealDVD vs MPAA case continues, and I wrote what I thought about it in a blog entry mid-week. I wrote my piece after the Judge in the case temporarily suspended sales of RealDVD, pending the outcome of the case perhaps. My opinion was that the case is more about the MPAA (and its members) trying to protect their own future marketing ideas on Managed Copy, and getting peeved because Real Networks beat them to the punch. I also went through the legal arguments about the legality of RealDVD, and I really can’t see why it is illegal at all. 

    Wal-Mart will have to keep on paying for their mistake of choosing to use DRM

    Wal-Mart will have to keep on paying for their mistake of choosing to use DRM

    And shortly after I wrote my piece, an article with similar opinions emerged from the Electronic Frontier Foundation, in which they also said that Hollywood’s hate for RealDVD is not due to piracy. I just hope the Judge in the case sees this point of view too, because I think it’s very important that Real Networks win this case. If DRM is really just to protect your licensing cash cow, then that’s more reason to kill it off ASAP.

    Wal-Mart’s DRM fiasco, the latest of many, is taking a turn for the predictable. Wal-Mart has backed down and now will ensure their DRM authentication servers are kept online so that people’s DRM-infested files will remain working, no doubt after legal advice from their lawyers. The disadvantages of online based DRM is shown quite clearly here, because it’s not just the consumer that suffers from DRM infection, but the content sellers are obligated to maintain legacy DRM servers forever at a huge cost in the long run (and will have to continue paying license fees for it too, which I gather was the whole point behind DRM in the first place).

    High DefinitionOnto HD news, I found this really interesting article on the process and cost of Blu-ray replication and licensing. What with various licensing fees for the A/V technology involved, the higher cost of replication, the AACS licensing fees, producing Blu-ray discs in small quantities such as 1,000 units could cost up to $14 (for BD-50 discs). This goes down to a much smaller figure for larger quantities, only $2.75, and so you start to wonder why Blu-ray movies cost so much more than their DVD counterparts. One thing is clear though, Blu-ray’s mandatory requirement for AACS (compared to DVD’s CSS and HD DVD’s AACS being optional), plus the higher manufacturing costs, means that Blu-ray is not friendly for independent producers, who will most likely have to rely on DVD even if they shoot their stuff in HD.

    The higher cost of Blu-ray is forcing NetFlix to raise their monthly rental fees, but only by a single dollar. But in the current climate, every dollar counts I suppose. And Blu-ray discs could get even more expensive, although with much more storage space, if Sanyo’s 100 GB Blu-ray disc ever makes it to full production.

    Iron Man Blu-ray is breaking all records

    Iron Man Blu-ray is breaking all records

    But cost of otherwise, last week was Blu-ray’s best week since launch, thanks altogether to the movie Iron Man. According to Nielsen VideoScan figures which I have posted here, Blu-ray sales shot up 145% compared to last week thanks to Iron Man, which out-sold the next most popular title on Blu-ray for the week by a ratio of 7 to 1. Blu-ray’s sales ratio to DVD was at a record high 15%, double that of normal weeks. The actual numbers for discs sold is a bit more sober in comparison though. Iron Man on DVD sold 7.2 million copies, while the Blu-ray version sold 500,000 – that’s a ratio of about 7%. This is an improvement compared to when HD DVD was still in the game, and I remember the disc volume ratio being closer to 3% back then. But Iron Man being only a single title, and one that propelled Blu-ray to a record week at that, so the average ratio may be closer to 4 or 5%. The Dark Knight already promises to beat Iron Man’s record, if the Amazon sales charts are anything to go by.

    The Australian dollar crashing won't help Blu-ray sales

    The Australian dollar crashing won't help Blu-ray sales

    Not going too well though is Blu-ray sales in Australia. Australia is actually one of the few countries outside of the US and Japan to fully embrace Blu-ray hardware thanks to the PS3’s popularity and relatively low hardware prices (due to our proximity to Asia). But due to high movie prices (at one point, the retail pricing of Blu-ray movies were at $USD 50), importing movies from the US and even UK has been a cheaper way to get into Blu-ray. Not so anymore, after the Aussie dollar crashed this week, and with shipping, getting movies from the US is up from an average of $AUD 23 to now basically the same as local pricing ($AUD 40). A couple of months ago I even imported some Blu-ray movies from the US for sale here in Australia (on eBay), but that looks quite a silly thing to do now. If discussions on this issue in this Australian forum is anything to go by, Blu-ray imports will significantly drop in the foreseeable future. (But as someone who’s income in mainly in US dollars, it’s a good time for me!)

    GamingAnd finally in gaming, it’s another week so we had yet another story on Blu-ray coming to the Xbox 360, and yet another denial from Microsoft about it. I promised several months ago in the forum that I would never post another Blu-ray coming to Xbox 360 story, after the last ten I’ve posted have all turned out to be completely rubbish, just like this recent one.

    This pic of an Xbox 360 Blu-ray player is as fake as the rumours about it

    This pic of an Xbox 360 Blu-ray player is as fake as the rumours about it

    But this time I really believe it could be true, and once again, I was fooled. I once again question why people need to make up these stories, perhaps because PS3 fanboys would love the Xbox 360 to get Blu-ray to prove that Sony’s decision to include it was justified (that’s debatable because Blu-ray’s added cost and development time may cause the PS3 to lose the curr-gen console war, or at least not win it as dramatically as the PS2 did last-gen). The Xbox 360 has 11 million users in the US alone, so getting it to support Blu-ray would definitely be a major coup for Sony (but why would Microsoft want that?). I just can’t see it happening though, not until we see a sexier, quieter Xbox 360, because at this moment if the Xbox 360 gets Blu-ray, you only have to compare it to Sony’s effort and there is only one winner – the PS3. Why would Microsoft want to make this comparison anyway, unless they are coming out with a piece of kit that’s better suited to home theatre usage as the PS3. And then there’s the fact that the PS3 uses Blu-ray for games, and the Xbox 360 cannot, so that’s another point of comparison which the Redmond firm does not want. And with Blu-ray’s popularity not exactly making headlines (not the good kind anyway), it feels like Blu-ray needs the 360 more than the 360 needs it. So will Blu-ray come to the Xbox 360? I think it’s wishful thinking on part of many at the moment, but then again, wishful thinking has a way of becoming reality if enough people wish for it.

    Okay, that’s all I’ve got this week. See you next week.

    Posted in Copyright, High Definition (Blu-ray/HD DVD/4K), News Roundup, PS3, PS4, Xbox 360, Xbox One | Comments Off on Weekly News Roundup (12 October 2008)

    Weekly News Roundup (5 October 2008)

    Sunday, October 5th, 2008

    I started last week’s WNR with news that my PS3 was fixed. I think I may have spoken too soon, as I’m now having problems with the wireless controller/remote. So my PS3 may be broken again, I posted earlier this week, but I may have spoken too soon, as the same problem hasn’t reoccurred yet. A lot to cover this week, so I’ll have to put my PS3 problems off for another week, until I’ve managed to replicate the problem again.

    CopyrightStarting with copyright news, Wal-Mart is the latest to abandon DRM. Normally, that’s good news, but because DRM is the world’s stupidest invention, it has grave consequences for users who did not pirate music and were honorable enough to buy DRM’d music from Wal-Mart. Wal-Mart will shut down its DRM authentication servers, meaning that the DRM’d music files will no longer play. As if people needed more incentive to pirate music.

    Apple FairPlay Sued by Norway

    Apple FairPlay Sued by Norway

    And to prove how stupid DRM is again, Apple has been sued by Norway over Apple’s FairPlay DRM. DRM not only makes genuine consumers mad, it also prevents interoperability and fair competition, which is why Norway is suing. I’ve always thought DRM was more about proprietary technology and licensing fees, as opposed to piracy and all that. Sony agrees with me apparently, when the President of Sony Pictures Television said that DRM is one of the the major causes of piracy, although he has no intention of dropping it.

    So not only does DRM cause consumer frustration, is anti-competitive, causes piracy, but it may also be killing Blu-ray. Apparently the prohibitive cost of implementing AACS (mainly licensing fees) means that it’s hard for independent producers may have to look elsewhere. Nearly $5,000 may be required to just publish one title on Blu-ray, and that’s for AACS licensing only. HD DVD’s specs said that AACS was optional, but the BDA insists on all Blu-ray discs to carry it, even if the content owners don’t wish to have it (so you can’t really say it’s all about copyright protection). The BDA’s insistence to push DRM onto consumers and producers equally is why I wish HD DVD had won the day, and I’m sure independent producers wished for it too.

    So is piracy really that big of a deal in the movie industry? Sony, the champion of DRM and copyright control, is asking ISPs to once more become copyright cops. And yes, this is the same interview in which the Sony Pictures Television President also said DRM is a major cause of piracy and that they love DRM – therefore, they must love piracy. You know who also loves piracy? The MPAA. Despite the deteriorating economic conditions, movie ticket sales are up. Piracy is also up. So therefore, piracy helps movie ticket sales. The MPAA must be very pleased.

    And following on the Spore DRM uproar, more and more gaming execs are turning away from DRM. Spore was a hit title that was always going to sell well, DRM or not, but for any other title, bad publicity caused by DRM could really just kill the title.

    RealDVD: Not so legal, says MPAA

    RealDVD: Not so legal, says MPAA

    And finally in copyright, the big news of the week. The MPAA and Real Networks are now locked in a legal battle over the legality of Real’s RealDVD software. As reported earlier in the WNR, RealDVD is Real Networks’ “legal” alternative to DVD rippers, because it keeps the CSS encryption intact on DVDs and then add their own layer of DRM to prevent sharing of the copied movie. Despite this, the MPAA is not happy and wants RealDVD to be scrapped, and is suing Real Networks for breaching CSS licensing (again, despite RealDVD not touching CSS at all). This one will be worth keeping an eye on, as the legal decision could go either way. The way the MPAA is acting could be considered anti-competitive, not allowing a particular use of a product just because they’re not making money from it (I don’t think the MPAA is against this sort of “managed copy”, as long as they’re the ones to profit from it I suppose). And Real could have the capital to fight this all the way too. The Electronic Frontiers Foundation, champions of user rights and fairness in copyright protection, states in this article why they think the MPAA should lose this case. I’m not a fan of Real’s products, but I support them on this one 100%.

    High DefinitionOnto HD news now, next week will be when the Iron Man Blu-ray sales figures filter through the Nielsen VideoScan figures. Early indication suggests that Iron Man Blu-ray will be the best selling Blu-ray title of all time, but I suppose that’s not really saying much. This week’s figures include the release of The Godfather Trilogy on Blu-ray, and as expected, it gave Blu-ray sales a bump to become the second best week (I think) ever (the best week being the Transformers bump). Next week should see Blu-ray break all it’s own records, although whether it will set records in terms of sales ratio to DVDs depend on how well the DVD version sells. With DVD users like myself preferring to buy movies a few months after their initial release, and Blu-ray owners (and early adopters) generally preferring to buy all the latest releases as quickly as possible, the figures should favour Blu-ray, but we’ll have to wait and see.

    HD DVD in zombified form still selling well

    HD DVD in zombified form still selling well

    The weird story of the week though is about HD DVD. Yes, that old thing. Apparently, HD DVD sales are still going strong, mainly due to the rock bottom prices that movies and hardware are being sold at. If anything proves that cheap will always outsell better, this is it (better in this case means a format which has a future versus one which definitely doesn’t). DVD will always outsell Blu-ray if this principle holds true, and DVD will never become a obsolete format as long as Blu-ray is alive (thanks to Blu-ray being backwards compatible with DVD). Toshiba is still not supporting Blu-ray, but they are adding PS3 technology to their TVs. I think the more accurate statement should be the PS3 using Toshiba technology, as the Cell processor that Toshiba will use in their LCD line-up is now a Toshiba owned product.

    And as predicted a few weeks ago, prices for Blu-ray hardware will drop for the important holiday season. More reason not to buy a Blu-ray player until later this month or in November, December, when the sales really start. I’ll post any good Blu-ray deals I find in the usual place.

    Although I’m quiet optimistic that Blu-ray will do quite well during this holiday season, mainly thanks to the major releases of Iron Man and especially The Dark Knight, it could always use a boost. Apple has always been a Blu-ray supporter, sitting on the board of the BDA, but it is strange why they haven’t announced support for Blu-ray in their computers yet. The theory is that Apple have their own plans in relation to movie distribution, and Blu-ray is not part of it (or you might even say that Blu-ray is against their plans).

    Another way to promote Blu-ray may be to include the SD DVD version of the movie in the same package, like HD DVD combos (but clumsier in that you need 2 discs, but better in that the discs can be used at the same time). Disney is doing just this with the Sleeping Beauty Blu-ray version. The way I see it, if Blu-ray is to fully replace DVDs, then it will need a combo format of its own. If Blu-ray is happy to be the more expensive alternative to DVD, to exist side by side with it, then the current marketing strategy is working fine.

    GamingAnd in gaming, Xbox 360’s with the Jasper update may (or may not be) appearing in stores already. Jasper reduces the size of the GPU to 65nm, which will help reduce heat production and improve stability.

    Will we ever see a slim Xbox 360?

    Will we ever see a slim Xbox 360?

    The rumours of a “slim” Xbox 360 just won’t go away though, and there is definitely a new iteration of the 360 coming possibly early next year.

    And that’s all the news for this week. I’m going to have to keep a close eye on the MPAA vs Real Networks legal battle, as I think the verdict of this case could prove quite important. If the MPAA wins, then unless they themselves come up with their own managed copy solution (which Real could then sue them for not allowing themselves to do the same thing), then the idea of a disc-less home theatre is dead. If Real wins, then we could see more and more products “circumvent” CSS legally. See you next week.

    Posted in Copyright, Electronics, High Definition (Blu-ray/HD DVD/4K), News Roundup, Xbox 360, Xbox One | Comments Off on Weekly News Roundup (5 October 2008)

    Weekly News Roundup (28 September 2008)

    Sunday, September 28th, 2008

    I finally got my PS3 back to fix the Blu-ray drive problem. Unfortunately, it acted up in strange ways at first, but a full system restore seems to have solved these issues (so if you get your PS3 back from repairs, do a full system restore first – takes a couple of hours, but it’s worth it). I’ve finished upgrading the search system on dvdloc8.com as well. I think it’s easier to find stuff now, but I’m no expert on search engines so I don’t really know what I’m doing anyway. If you search for “bat” and the first result returned is Last Stand of the 300 – The Legendary Battle at Thermopylae, then you’ll know why.

    CopyrightI’m going to do something different this week and start with the copyright news. Oh yes, very different. The RIAA has rejected a Judge issued damages amount and want to go to trial to get more money from a teenager. The Judge initially ordered damages capped at $200 per song, but the RIAA wants to get the maximum $700 per song, because I supposed with the current economic climate, they need the money or something. Actually it’s because the Judge believed the defendant’s claim that it was a case of “innocent infringement”, because Whitney Harper (16 at the time of the infringement, now 20 years old) didn’t know about copyright laws, how KaZaA worked and all of that. In the eyes of the RIAA, everyone is guilty, so obviously there is no such thing as “innocent infringement”, and so the RIAA wants to go to court and get a jury to decide on damages. When the RIAA is not going after 16 year olds, they are going after single mothers. A single mother was convicted and the RIAA was awarded $222,000 in damages, but a Judge has now ruled that the damages rewarded were “wholly disproportionate” and “oppresive”. I say the industry response to copyright theft can also be described as “wholly disproportionate” and “oppressive”.

    Download Heroes episodes instead of recording them: illegal?

    Download Heroes episodes instead of recording them: illegal?

    The outgoing Bush administration wants a new International agreement concerning copyright protection that companies like Google are trying to fight. Shortly after, the US senate passed a MPAA/RIAA/BSA approved bill to crackdown further on copyright abuse, to create a new office of the Copyright Czar, funded by taxpayer money to help big business maintain the profit margins. Well at least they’re consistent on this last point, and it’s good to see with all that’s going on at the moment, preventing you from downloading the latest episode of Heroes is what’s most important. Speaking of downloading Heroes, here in Australia, illegal downloads have been described as an “epidemic”. Piracy is popular here because we get shafted by free-to-air TV stations, which pay big money to secure TV shows (thus preventing the cable networks from having first-run on these shows), and then stuff the program full of ads and show them at the most inappropriate times (if they show them at all). And if you missed a show on TV, didn’t record it, then is downloading it really a crime? It is though, legally speaking, I think.

    PlayStation Store Downloads: Beware of DRM restrictions

    PlayStation Store Downloads: Beware of DRM restrictions

    Moving onto gaming related copyright issues. Activision will now go after individual pirates, targeting people who have pirated the Xbox 360 game Call of Duty 3, and is seeking damages of between $30,000 and $150,000. And if you purchase content from the PlayStation store, be aware that you cannot re-download content, which means if you had to wipe the HDD to do a full system restore due to a shoddy Blu-ray drive, then you’ll have to re-purchase everything. If you had pirated the stuff instead of paying for it, you’ll get better treatment, so what kind of message is this sending to consumers anyway. The Spore DRM thing refuses to go away, and talks of class action lawsuits as well as censorship on EA’s part means this one will drag on for a while now.

    In other words, DRM sucks.

    High DefinitionLet’s skip to HD news, because the copyright stuff is depressing. Transformers on Blu-ray: it’s apparently great news for Blu-ray and also the worst to ever happen to it. Depending on who you read. As I mentioned in the last WNR’s, Transformers on Blu-ray caused a sales surge to give Blu-ray the best week ever in terms of sales ratio to DVD. Then the following week, sales dropped back to normal and so there was a huge drop in Blu-ray sales for the week-to-week numbers. And these numbers have caused some in the media to write more “Blu-ray is doomed” stories, because a 13.39% drop in sales means that just, despite Blu-ray sales being up 29% and 16% for the two weeks prior.

    Transformers on Blu-ray: causing debates about Blu-ray's popularity

    Transformers on Blu-ray: causing debates about Blu-ray's popularity

    This forced EngadgetHD to write a story debunking these rubbish stories, and rightly so. There is truth to the story that Blu-ray isn’t doing as well as it should be, but to take facts and stretch them to present an extreme point of view (to gain hits, no doubt), is not on. Unfortunately, this happens all too much these days, and not just in less than important news items like Blu-ray sales. But unfortunately, EngadgetHD’s article did their own bit truthstretching and number fudging, as they came up with the wrong conclusion that Blu-ray’s market share (compared to DVD) has actually doubled. They came up with this statement based on only two sets of data – one in March for the week when I Am Legend was released, and another for the Transformers bump. While bothmovies are similarly “hit” titles that will be similarly (but not equally) popular amongst movie lovers, they were both released under different circumstances. I Am Legend was available simultaneously on DVD and Blu-ray, whereas this latest Transformers Blu-ray release was Blu-ray only, and occurred in a week where there were no other Blu-ray and DVD releases of note. So basically you have one that released in a busy week and thus having a 6% market share for the Blu-ray version, while you have another title that is released in a week where it is the only major release and only available in Blu-ray with a 12% market share. So what do these numbers tell you? Nothing at all, other than when a popular movie is released only on Blu-ray in a week when no other releases were as good, then the Blu-ray market share goes up (and then goes immediately down the next week).

    Blu-ray Sales Stats

    Blu-ray Sales Stats

    What is probably better is to compare actual sale figures. It isn’t a good way either, because sales fluctuate seasonally, but because Blu-ray is playing the catch up game, its number should be ever on the increase as it gains more market share and tries to beat the slowly “dying” DVD format. Unfortunately, data on the week I am Legend was sold is not available. The earliest data I have is from the week ending April 20th. For that week, Blu-ray sold $9.93m. I had a search on the ever useful Blu-ray Disc Stats website and it seems that was the week that Aliens vs Predator: Requiem were released on Blu-ray, as well as the classics Commando and Predator, as well as the new release Juno. The other titles were “Before the Devil Knows You’re Dead”, “Mariah Carey: The Adventures of Mimi” and “A Passage to India”. To do a comparison, let’s look at the week ending September 14th. Now this week had some good releases, Kill Bill vol 1 and 2, the new comedy Baby Mama, classics such as Cool Hand Luke and Jerry Maguire. Jackie Chan’s The Forbidden Kingdom was also release in the week, and so were the latest seasons of Grey’s Anatomy and Smallville (other titles: “The Alps”, “Day Watch”, “Don Giovanni”, “The Fall”, “How the West Was Won”, “Manilow Live!”, “Night Watch” and “Rudy”). And it was also the week following the Transformers release, so I’m sure it sold some as well. So how did this week compared to that week in April? Total sales for the week ending 14thSeptember was $9.18m. That’s a drop of 7.6%, despite the most recent week having tons more releases than the other one back in April. So what does this tell you? Not much really, because again we’re comparing different titles that appeal to different segments of the market and one was a week with a new to disc release, and the most recent one was full of (admittedly box office heavy) catalogue releases.

    Catalogue releases bring up the question: which DVDs will you re-buy on Blu-ray? I think the fact that this is being debated suggests that Blu-ray will have trouble with titles already available on DVD, as I don’t think there are many that will upgrade every single DVD they have to Blu-ray. I do plan on upgrading selected titles, such as Band of Brothers, The Godfather Trilogy, LOTR Trilogy, Star Wars – only because I’ve watched these about a million times (each), and so the investment is worthit. Otherwise, I’ll stick with my existing DVD collection, which is still growing faster than my Blu-ray collection as I’m not buying shit movies that I watch maybe once on anything other than in a “Under $10” sale. So without catalogue releases, how can Blu-ray increase market share? Cheaper Blu-ray hardware is a start. Remember when the BDA said that cheap HD DVD players were a sign of desperation? A Sony Blu-ray player available for under $200 on Amazon just last week must mean something then. What was also a bit desperate was Amazon’s attempt to run a run-of-the-mill 3 for 2 promotion, but a misplaced link in a newsletter and they ended up having to honor all Blu-ray titles at Amazon as part of the 3 for 2. Ouch (especially in this financial climate).

    Toshiba threw in the towel on HD DVD rather quickly, but they’ve not forgotten their customers and are still releasing firmware updates. These machines are still top of the range DVD upscalers at the very least, and the crazily cheap money these players went for after HD DVD’s demise still makes them excellent value (and more so if Toshiba continues with the firmware updates). Toshiba is still saying no to Blu-ray though.

    GamingAnd finally in gaming, not much going on this week. I think the Xbox 360 outsold the PS3 in Japan again, but the Wii reclaimed top spot. PS3 sales have slumped rather quickly in Japan, but more surprising is the surge in Xbox 360 sales. Microsoft’s new strategy of wooing Japanese game publishers to publish exclusive titles on the 360 seems to be working.

    PlayStation Home: Finally coming to a PS3 near you

    PlayStation Home: Finally coming to a PS3 near you

    And we’re very much near to Sony unveiling its PlayStation Home system. “Finally”, I hear you say, will it revolutionize how gamers interact with each other, and will it be a Xbox Live killer? We’ll just have to wait and find out, I suppose. The firmware update to allow this puppy to run on the PS3 will be huge, I suspect, and given my recent experience with firmware, I think I shall skip it until other more fearless users have volunteered to be guinea pigs for it.

    So that’s it for this week. It was long one, thanks to my Blu-ray rant in the middle, plus all the other rants around it. Until next week, WNR readers!

    Posted in Copyright, Electronics, High Definition (Blu-ray/HD DVD/4K), News Roundup, PS3, PS4, Xbox 360, Xbox One | Comments Off on Weekly News Roundup (28 September 2008)

    Game Consoles – August 2008 NPD Sales Figure Analysis

    Tuesday, September 16th, 2008

    Welcome to another edition of our monthly NPD US game console sales figure analysis. We are now looking at officially the slowest months in terms of video games sales, at least when hardware is concerned (software sales depends on which titles are released during the month). You can read last month’s analysis here. The figures are from NPD, a marketing research firm that releases games console sale data every month.

    The figures for US sales in August are below, ranked in order of number of sales:

  • DS: 518,000 (Total: 22 million)  
  • Wii: 453,000 (Total: 11.9 million)  
  • PSP: 253,000 (Total: 12.5 million)
  • Xbox 360: 195,000 (Total: 10.9 million)
  • PS3: 185,000 (Total: 5.3 million)
  • PS2: 144,000 (Total: 42.6 million)
    • NPD August 2008 Game Console US Sales Figures

    NPD August 2008 Game Console US Sales Figures

    NPD Game Console Total US Sales Figures (as of August 2008)

    NPD Game Console Total US Sales Figures (as of August 2008)

    My exact prediction last month was this:

    I think it will be somewhat similar, maybe the Xbox 360 can overtake the PS3, maybe it won’t. There won’t be any dramatic changes, I don’t think.

    I basically didn’t make a prediction last month, other than to say that the Xbox 360 and PS3 sales would be close. And I guess I was right on this account, since the Xbox 360 managed to outsell the PS3 by a nose this month. The other “surprise” was the drop in Wii sales, but as mentioned before, August is a slow month.

    The Xbox 360 managed to beat the PS3 by a whisker this month, thanks largely to the price cuts. The momentum is definitely with the PS3 at the moment, because even with the price cuts, the Xbox 360 could not significantly outsell a PS3 that is double the price (360 Arcade versus 80 GB PS3). From Microsoft’s perspective, and coming from the relatively failure of the original Xbox, if it can keep up sales with the PS3 while getting some penetration into the casual gaming market dominated by the Wii, then it should be happy with the outcome now-gen console war. The problem is that you feel with a price cut or two, the PS3 will start selling in much greater numbers as PS2 users start to upgrade, and the Xbox 360 won’t be able to compete. And a cheaper PS3 will probably mean fewer Xbox 360 sales as well, so it’s doubly hit. Microsoft needs to come up with something more than price cuts to entice users. If you want to best console from a technology point of view, then it’s the PS3. If you want the most fun console, then it’s the Wii. So where does the Xbox 360 come into all of this? That’s the problem Microsoft has to solve.

    PS3 hardware sales is still largely dependent on software releases, as people are still searching for a reason to upgrade to the PS3, rather than doing it naturally. The price is the main issue here, but the good news for Sony is that price related problems are the easiest to solve (solution: cut them when you can afford to). LittleBigPlanet will be released next month, so that’s another eagerly awaited title that will help with sales. 

    As mentioned before, Wii sales dropped due to decreased damand and stock issues. The Wii hype will die off eventually, but there will always be a ready supply of casual gamers wanting to experience the Wii. All the “Wii is dying” stories following the release of the NPD figures are a bit over the top really.

    Now let’s have a look at the software charts. August was pretty much dominated by Madden ’09, with the title in the top 10 an amazing four times for each different console, accounting for 61% of top 10 sales (by unit). Despite the gains the PS3 is making, the raw numbers still favour the Xbox 360 and the Xbox 360 version of Madden stole the show in August with one million sales and 28% of the top 10. The PS3 version of Madden was next on the list, but only about 65% of the sales the 360 version made. The Wii version of Madden made the top 10 too, but it was at 9th position. It shows that with traditional titles such as Madden, the 360/PS3 (and even PS2) still has more selling power than the Wii. Overall, Xbox 360 sales accounted for 37.7% of the top 10. Wii software sales are still relatively strong, accounting for 29.2% of top 10 sales. The PS3 was third with 18.1%. Here’s the complete list of the top 10 software sales (check out the links for cheapest, usually Asian but region-free, version of the game available from Play-Asia, for example, Madden 09 for 360/PS3: both under $50):

    1. Madden NFL 09 (Xbox 360, EA) – 1,000,000
    2. Madden NFL 09 (PS3, EA) – 643,000
    3. Madden NFL 09 (PS2, EA) – 424,500
    4. Wii Fit w/Board (Wii, Nintendo) – 394,900   
    5. Mario Kart w/ Wheel (Wii, Nintendo) – 328,700
    6. Wii Play w/ Remote (Wii, Nintendo) – 200,200
    7. Soul Calibur IV (Xbox 360, Namco) – 174,000
    8. Too Human (Xbox 360, Microsoft) – 168,200 
    9. Madden NFL 09 (Wii, EA) – 115,800
    10. Guitar Hero: On Tour (Nintendo DS, Activision) – 111,200

    And so it’s prediction time for next month. Don’t know why, but I really don’t want to make a prediction for September. Star Wars: The Force Unleashed will be a good seller. Lego Batman could make the top 10 too. But both of these are multi-platform releases, so you would think the Xbox 360 would benefit more, but with the price cuts already done with, the momentum could swing back to the PS3 again. The Wii will sell well, and probably recover a bit just in time for the holiday season. More of the same it is then. See you next month.

    Posted in Nintendo Wii, Wii U, Switch, NPD Analysis, PS3, PS4, Xbox 360, Xbox One | 3 Comments »

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