Archive for the ‘Gaming’ Category

Game Consoles – September 2008 NPD Sales Figure Analysis

Monday, October 20th, 2008

The September 2008 NPD sales figures are out, and there are some surprises. The holiday season is just starting, and the figures show a slight lift in sales compared to the last month. We are near the few months of the year when most consoles and games are sold, and we shall see who has positioned themselves best for this upcoming holiday season. You can read last month’s analysis here. The figures are from NPD, a marketing research firm that releases games console sale data every month.

The figures for US sales in September are below, ranked in order of number of sales:

  • Wii: 687,000 (Total: 12.5 million)  
  • DS: 537,000 (Total: 22.5 million)  
  • Xbox 360: 347,000 (Total: 11.2 million)
  • PSP: 238,000 (Total: 12.7 million)
  • PS3: 232,000 (Total: 5.5 million)
  • PS2: 173,000 (Total: 42.8 million)
  • NPD September 2008 Game Console US Sales Figures

    NPD September 2008 Game Console US Sales Figures

    NPD Game Console Total US Sales Figures (as of September 2008)

    NPD Game Console Total US Sales Figures (as of September 2008)

     My prediction last month was:

    … the (Xbox 360) price cuts already done with, the momentum could swing back to the PS3 again. The Wii will sell well, and probably recover a bit just in time for the holiday season.

    I was right about the Wii, but I was wrong about the Xbox 360. As this month’s figures show, the price cuts had a huge effect on Xbox 360 sales. The surge it produced was enough to propel the Xbox 360 to the third most popular video game hardware, out-selling the PSP and the PS3.

    The Xbox 360 also out-sold the PS3 last month, but it was by a much smaller margin. I’m not sure price cuts are a long term solution, but for this holiday season at least, the Xbox 360 is positioned very well to compete with the PS3 and possibly even the Wii. Sony has already come out and said that they won’t cut PS3 prices this year, so I think Microsoft will emerge as the overall winner for 2008 in the war against the PS3. Microsoft is probably trying to achieve some sort of critical mass for the uptake of the Xbox 360, because if enough of your friends have Xbox 360’s, then you would want one too, wouldn’t you? The superior multiplayer system of the 360, despite not being free, will further drive this sort of “peer pressure”. If you want to a curr-gen console somewhat comparable to the PS3, good multiplayer support, a huge range of games at cheap prices (I saw older Xbox 360 hits like Dead Rising, Crackdown on sale for $10 this week … amazing value for hours and hours of fun), then the Xbox 360 is your only choice. The Wii is another, but only if you don’t care that your games look a bit crap on your 50″ HDTV. The Japanese sales figures which have shown the Xbox 360 out-selling the PS3 on its own turf is just the cherry on top, really.

    Sony on the other hand are probably not worried about PS3 sales being slightly flatter this year, or even the next. Remember, they’ve said they have a 10 year strategy for the PS3 and this is only the second year. They believe they can achieve something similar to the PS2, where even now, it is still selling in good quantities and there are now more than 42 million PS2s in the US alone. Of course, the PS3 is a completely different beast to the PS2, and if you want to compare apples to apples, then the Xbox 360 is positioned similarly to the PS2 and the PS3 is similar to the original Xbox – cheap, less powerful hardware with more games versus more expensive, more powerful hardware with less games. Will we ever see the mass upgrade of PS2s to PS3s? I think many of these people have already “upgraded” to the Xbox 360 as they were waiting for the PS3 to come down in price (or improve in title availability). Will they buy a PS3 as well? Maybe, or maybe they will buy a Wii instead. While I think Sony’s strategy is still safe for the time being, you cannot market the PS3 as a premium piece of equipment because people don’t really care about that, people just want good games at cheap prices. If anything, the Wii has been marketed is the exact opposite of the PS3, cheap hardware, but fun. When I think the PS3, I think superior Blu-ray player and multimedia hub, not a console you associate with “fun” (even the sleek black design doesn’t say “fun” to me, it reminds me of the monolith in 2001 to be honest). And with the economy the way it is, people are looking at saving money, not spending more even if it is a superior piece of kit.

    Speaking of the Wii, it continues to do well, and I don’t think this holiday period will be any different when it comes to demand (so get your orders in now while you still can, and don’t get left out like the last two holiday periods). The real success story of this year (and the last) has to be the Wii, because without a huge array of hit games, and without constant price drops, it has managed to remain top of the sales charts by a considerable margin. The ‘funness’ I alluded to earlier, and the fact that it isn’t expensive to start with is what I think has made it a success, and if anything, the downturn in economic conditions might help it sell more at the expense of more expensive consoles (mainly the PS3, as the Xbox 360 has become even cheaper).

    Moving on to software sales, the Xbox 360’s lead over the PS3 means it continues to do well whenever a big multi-platform game is released, and this month, it’s Star Wars: The Force Unleashed. The Wii continues to do well of course, but even though it has more hardware in people’s homes than the Xbox 360, serious gamers (those that spend serious bucks) are still the ones with Xbox 360’s it seems. The PS3 had the poorest result of the year I think, with only a single title in the top 10, and that was Star Wars. Overall, 45.1% of the top 10 sales belonged to the Xbox 360, the Wii was close behind on 40.3%, the PS3 far behind with only 9.8% and a single PS2 title rounding off the month. Here’s the complete list of the top 10 software sales:

    1. Star Wars: The Force Unleashed (Xbox 360, LucasArts) – 610,000
    2. Wii Fit w/Board (Wii, Nintendo) – 518,000   
    3. Rock Band 2 (Xbox 360, MTV/EA) – 363,000
    4. Mario Kart w/ Wheel (Wii, Nintendo) – 353,000
    5. Star Wars: The Force Unleashed (PS3, LucasArts) – 325,000
    6. Mercenaries 2 (Xbox 360, EA) – 297,000
    7. Wii Play w/ Remote (Wii, Nintendo) – 243,000
    8. Madden NFL 09 (Xbox 360, EA) – 224,000
    9. Star Wars: The Force Unleashed (PS2, LucasArts) – 223,000
    10. Madden NFL 09 (PS2, EA) – 158,000

    The next month should see an increase in sales all around, but I suspect it will be the same as this months in terms of the ranking, the Wii ahead by quite a bit, the Xbox 360 following with the PS3 third (in between are the portables, while the PS2 is sixth). Common sense really. See you next month.

    Weekly News Roundup (12 October 2008)

    Sunday, October 12th, 2008

    So I sent my PS3 back for repairs on Wednesday. I had to do it because the wireless controller/remote drop-out problem was driving me nuts. My old PS3 didn’t have this issue, so I’m hoping the next PS3 I get won’t have it either. Microsoft’s 6 day turn-around for my Xbox 360 repair is starting to look pretty good, especially considering that I got my own 360 back and not somebody else’s slightly broken, but refurbished, PS3. The news items are a bit light this week, no doubt the focus is still on the economic meltdown that is happening around the world.

    And despite the economic uncertainty, I bought myself a new monitor this week, a 24″ entry level model from Dell. It’s not the best monitor, the 16:9 ratio is a bit weird compared to other monitors (as is the only 1080 line resolution), but it does have HDMI, is perfect for connecting 1080p devices such as PS3s and Xbox 360s, and of course, there’s the price. I only paid $USD 160 for it (current price is $399) due to a stuff up on Dell’s part, and for that money, I can’t complain too much about the monitor’s deficiencies (of which there are a few, but nothing that I can’t live with, even at the regular pricing of $399). Bargain hunting is now a small hobby of mine, and it feels great to pick one up.

    CopyrightAnyway, ket’s start with copyright news. The RealDVD vs MPAA case continues, and I wrote what I thought about it in a blog entry mid-week. I wrote my piece after the Judge in the case temporarily suspended sales of RealDVD, pending the outcome of the case perhaps. My opinion was that the case is more about the MPAA (and its members) trying to protect their own future marketing ideas on Managed Copy, and getting peeved because Real Networks beat them to the punch. I also went through the legal arguments about the legality of RealDVD, and I really can’t see why it is illegal at all. 

    Wal-Mart will have to keep on paying for their mistake of choosing to use DRM

    Wal-Mart will have to keep on paying for their mistake of choosing to use DRM

    And shortly after I wrote my piece, an article with similar opinions emerged from the Electronic Frontier Foundation, in which they also said that Hollywood’s hate for RealDVD is not due to piracy. I just hope the Judge in the case sees this point of view too, because I think it’s very important that Real Networks win this case. If DRM is really just to protect your licensing cash cow, then that’s more reason to kill it off ASAP.

    Wal-Mart’s DRM fiasco, the latest of many, is taking a turn for the predictable. Wal-Mart has backed down and now will ensure their DRM authentication servers are kept online so that people’s DRM-infested files will remain working, no doubt after legal advice from their lawyers. The disadvantages of online based DRM is shown quite clearly here, because it’s not just the consumer that suffers from DRM infection, but the content sellers are obligated to maintain legacy DRM servers forever at a huge cost in the long run (and will have to continue paying license fees for it too, which I gather was the whole point behind DRM in the first place).

    High DefinitionOnto HD news, I found this really interesting article on the process and cost of Blu-ray replication and licensing. What with various licensing fees for the A/V technology involved, the higher cost of replication, the AACS licensing fees, producing Blu-ray discs in small quantities such as 1,000 units could cost up to $14 (for BD-50 discs). This goes down to a much smaller figure for larger quantities, only $2.75, and so you start to wonder why Blu-ray movies cost so much more than their DVD counterparts. One thing is clear though, Blu-ray’s mandatory requirement for AACS (compared to DVD’s CSS and HD DVD’s AACS being optional), plus the higher manufacturing costs, means that Blu-ray is not friendly for independent producers, who will most likely have to rely on DVD even if they shoot their stuff in HD.

    The higher cost of Blu-ray is forcing NetFlix to raise their monthly rental fees, but only by a single dollar. But in the current climate, every dollar counts I suppose. And Blu-ray discs could get even more expensive, although with much more storage space, if Sanyo’s 100 GB Blu-ray disc ever makes it to full production.

    Iron Man Blu-ray is breaking all records

    Iron Man Blu-ray is breaking all records

    But cost of otherwise, last week was Blu-ray’s best week since launch, thanks altogether to the movie Iron Man. According to Nielsen VideoScan figures which I have posted here, Blu-ray sales shot up 145% compared to last week thanks to Iron Man, which out-sold the next most popular title on Blu-ray for the week by a ratio of 7 to 1. Blu-ray’s sales ratio to DVD was at a record high 15%, double that of normal weeks. The actual numbers for discs sold is a bit more sober in comparison though. Iron Man on DVD sold 7.2 million copies, while the Blu-ray version sold 500,000 – that’s a ratio of about 7%. This is an improvement compared to when HD DVD was still in the game, and I remember the disc volume ratio being closer to 3% back then. But Iron Man being only a single title, and one that propelled Blu-ray to a record week at that, so the average ratio may be closer to 4 or 5%. The Dark Knight already promises to beat Iron Man’s record, if the Amazon sales charts are anything to go by.

    The Australian dollar crashing won't help Blu-ray sales

    The Australian dollar crashing won't help Blu-ray sales

    Not going too well though is Blu-ray sales in Australia. Australia is actually one of the few countries outside of the US and Japan to fully embrace Blu-ray hardware thanks to the PS3’s popularity and relatively low hardware prices (due to our proximity to Asia). But due to high movie prices (at one point, the retail pricing of Blu-ray movies were at $USD 50), importing movies from the US and even UK has been a cheaper way to get into Blu-ray. Not so anymore, after the Aussie dollar crashed this week, and with shipping, getting movies from the US is up from an average of $AUD 23 to now basically the same as local pricing ($AUD 40). A couple of months ago I even imported some Blu-ray movies from the US for sale here in Australia (on eBay), but that looks quite a silly thing to do now. If discussions on this issue in this Australian forum is anything to go by, Blu-ray imports will significantly drop in the foreseeable future. (But as someone who’s income in mainly in US dollars, it’s a good time for me!)

    GamingAnd finally in gaming, it’s another week so we had yet another story on Blu-ray coming to the Xbox 360, and yet another denial from Microsoft about it. I promised several months ago in the forum that I would never post another Blu-ray coming to Xbox 360 story, after the last ten I’ve posted have all turned out to be completely rubbish, just like this recent one.

    This pic of an Xbox 360 Blu-ray player is as fake as the rumours about it

    This pic of an Xbox 360 Blu-ray player is as fake as the rumours about it

    But this time I really believe it could be true, and once again, I was fooled. I once again question why people need to make up these stories, perhaps because PS3 fanboys would love the Xbox 360 to get Blu-ray to prove that Sony’s decision to include it was justified (that’s debatable because Blu-ray’s added cost and development time may cause the PS3 to lose the curr-gen console war, or at least not win it as dramatically as the PS2 did last-gen). The Xbox 360 has 11 million users in the US alone, so getting it to support Blu-ray would definitely be a major coup for Sony (but why would Microsoft want that?). I just can’t see it happening though, not until we see a sexier, quieter Xbox 360, because at this moment if the Xbox 360 gets Blu-ray, you only have to compare it to Sony’s effort and there is only one winner – the PS3. Why would Microsoft want to make this comparison anyway, unless they are coming out with a piece of kit that’s better suited to home theatre usage as the PS3. And then there’s the fact that the PS3 uses Blu-ray for games, and the Xbox 360 cannot, so that’s another point of comparison which the Redmond firm does not want. And with Blu-ray’s popularity not exactly making headlines (not the good kind anyway), it feels like Blu-ray needs the 360 more than the 360 needs it. So will Blu-ray come to the Xbox 360? I think it’s wishful thinking on part of many at the moment, but then again, wishful thinking has a way of becoming reality if enough people wish for it.

    Okay, that’s all I’ve got this week. See you next week.

    My PS3 just broke – Redux Part 2

    Wednesday, October 8th, 2008

    As posted earlier, I was waiting for my wireless controller/remote problem to occur once more before calling Sony tech support, just to give the PS3 one more chance to not malfunction, but it happened again last night (that’s twice already that is has occured just after starting the console, plus the few times that it happened during usage). So I called Sony tech support, and it seems the only way to go forward is to bring the console back in for service.

    It’s unfortunate, and although it’s not a huge problem like not being able to use any discs, I cannot accept a refurbished PS3 that is not fully functioning. Apart from the disc drive problem, my previous PS3 worked perfectly and didn’t have a single wireless drop-out in the 9 months I’ve had it, and I want something like that back. And I could understand if the wireless drops out and I was able to re-connect, but with my problem, the only solution is to actually restart the machine … no amount of re-connecting will get the PS3 to see any wireless controllers/remotes, and I’m sure restarting the PS3 all the time can’t be good for its lone term health. I have only one and a half month left on my warranty, so it’s a no brainer whether I get it serviced now or wait until the problem becomes something more serious.

    I will keep you updated on the progress.

    Weekly News Roundup (5 October 2008)

    Sunday, October 5th, 2008

    I started last week’s WNR with news that my PS3 was fixed. I think I may have spoken too soon, as I’m now having problems with the wireless controller/remote. So my PS3 may be broken again, I posted earlier this week, but I may have spoken too soon, as the same problem hasn’t reoccurred yet. A lot to cover this week, so I’ll have to put my PS3 problems off for another week, until I’ve managed to replicate the problem again.

    CopyrightStarting with copyright news, Wal-Mart is the latest to abandon DRM. Normally, that’s good news, but because DRM is the world’s stupidest invention, it has grave consequences for users who did not pirate music and were honorable enough to buy DRM’d music from Wal-Mart. Wal-Mart will shut down its DRM authentication servers, meaning that the DRM’d music files will no longer play. As if people needed more incentive to pirate music.

    Apple FairPlay Sued by Norway

    Apple FairPlay Sued by Norway

    And to prove how stupid DRM is again, Apple has been sued by Norway over Apple’s FairPlay DRM. DRM not only makes genuine consumers mad, it also prevents interoperability and fair competition, which is why Norway is suing. I’ve always thought DRM was more about proprietary technology and licensing fees, as opposed to piracy and all that. Sony agrees with me apparently, when the President of Sony Pictures Television said that DRM is one of the the major causes of piracy, although he has no intention of dropping it.

    So not only does DRM cause consumer frustration, is anti-competitive, causes piracy, but it may also be killing Blu-ray. Apparently the prohibitive cost of implementing AACS (mainly licensing fees) means that it’s hard for independent producers may have to look elsewhere. Nearly $5,000 may be required to just publish one title on Blu-ray, and that’s for AACS licensing only. HD DVD’s specs said that AACS was optional, but the BDA insists on all Blu-ray discs to carry it, even if the content owners don’t wish to have it (so you can’t really say it’s all about copyright protection). The BDA’s insistence to push DRM onto consumers and producers equally is why I wish HD DVD had won the day, and I’m sure independent producers wished for it too.

    So is piracy really that big of a deal in the movie industry? Sony, the champion of DRM and copyright control, is asking ISPs to once more become copyright cops. And yes, this is the same interview in which the Sony Pictures Television President also said DRM is a major cause of piracy and that they love DRM – therefore, they must love piracy. You know who also loves piracy? The MPAA. Despite the deteriorating economic conditions, movie ticket sales are up. Piracy is also up. So therefore, piracy helps movie ticket sales. The MPAA must be very pleased.

    And following on the Spore DRM uproar, more and more gaming execs are turning away from DRM. Spore was a hit title that was always going to sell well, DRM or not, but for any other title, bad publicity caused by DRM could really just kill the title.

    RealDVD: Not so legal, says MPAA

    RealDVD: Not so legal, says MPAA

    And finally in copyright, the big news of the week. The MPAA and Real Networks are now locked in a legal battle over the legality of Real’s RealDVD software. As reported earlier in the WNR, RealDVD is Real Networks’ “legal” alternative to DVD rippers, because it keeps the CSS encryption intact on DVDs and then add their own layer of DRM to prevent sharing of the copied movie. Despite this, the MPAA is not happy and wants RealDVD to be scrapped, and is suing Real Networks for breaching CSS licensing (again, despite RealDVD not touching CSS at all). This one will be worth keeping an eye on, as the legal decision could go either way. The way the MPAA is acting could be considered anti-competitive, not allowing a particular use of a product just because they’re not making money from it (I don’t think the MPAA is against this sort of “managed copy”, as long as they’re the ones to profit from it I suppose). And Real could have the capital to fight this all the way too. The Electronic Frontiers Foundation, champions of user rights and fairness in copyright protection, states in this article why they think the MPAA should lose this case. I’m not a fan of Real’s products, but I support them on this one 100%.

    High DefinitionOnto HD news now, next week will be when the Iron Man Blu-ray sales figures filter through the Nielsen VideoScan figures. Early indication suggests that Iron Man Blu-ray will be the best selling Blu-ray title of all time, but I suppose that’s not really saying much. This week’s figures include the release of The Godfather Trilogy on Blu-ray, and as expected, it gave Blu-ray sales a bump to become the second best week (I think) ever (the best week being the Transformers bump). Next week should see Blu-ray break all it’s own records, although whether it will set records in terms of sales ratio to DVDs depend on how well the DVD version sells. With DVD users like myself preferring to buy movies a few months after their initial release, and Blu-ray owners (and early adopters) generally preferring to buy all the latest releases as quickly as possible, the figures should favour Blu-ray, but we’ll have to wait and see.

    HD DVD in zombified form still selling well

    HD DVD in zombified form still selling well

    The weird story of the week though is about HD DVD. Yes, that old thing. Apparently, HD DVD sales are still going strong, mainly due to the rock bottom prices that movies and hardware are being sold at. If anything proves that cheap will always outsell better, this is it (better in this case means a format which has a future versus one which definitely doesn’t). DVD will always outsell Blu-ray if this principle holds true, and DVD will never become a obsolete format as long as Blu-ray is alive (thanks to Blu-ray being backwards compatible with DVD). Toshiba is still not supporting Blu-ray, but they are adding PS3 technology to their TVs. I think the more accurate statement should be the PS3 using Toshiba technology, as the Cell processor that Toshiba will use in their LCD line-up is now a Toshiba owned product.

    And as predicted a few weeks ago, prices for Blu-ray hardware will drop for the important holiday season. More reason not to buy a Blu-ray player until later this month or in November, December, when the sales really start. I’ll post any good Blu-ray deals I find in the usual place.

    Although I’m quiet optimistic that Blu-ray will do quite well during this holiday season, mainly thanks to the major releases of Iron Man and especially The Dark Knight, it could always use a boost. Apple has always been a Blu-ray supporter, sitting on the board of the BDA, but it is strange why they haven’t announced support for Blu-ray in their computers yet. The theory is that Apple have their own plans in relation to movie distribution, and Blu-ray is not part of it (or you might even say that Blu-ray is against their plans).

    Another way to promote Blu-ray may be to include the SD DVD version of the movie in the same package, like HD DVD combos (but clumsier in that you need 2 discs, but better in that the discs can be used at the same time). Disney is doing just this with the Sleeping Beauty Blu-ray version. The way I see it, if Blu-ray is to fully replace DVDs, then it will need a combo format of its own. If Blu-ray is happy to be the more expensive alternative to DVD, to exist side by side with it, then the current marketing strategy is working fine.

    GamingAnd in gaming, Xbox 360’s with the Jasper update may (or may not be) appearing in stores already. Jasper reduces the size of the GPU to 65nm, which will help reduce heat production and improve stability.

    Will we ever see a slim Xbox 360?

    Will we ever see a slim Xbox 360?

    The rumours of a “slim” Xbox 360 just won’t go away though, and there is definitely a new iteration of the 360 coming possibly early next year.

    And that’s all the news for this week. I’m going to have to keep a close eye on the MPAA vs Real Networks legal battle, as I think the verdict of this case could prove quite important. If the MPAA wins, then unless they themselves come up with their own managed copy solution (which Real could then sue them for not allowing themselves to do the same thing), then the idea of a disc-less home theatre is dead. If Real wins, then we could see more and more products “circumvent” CSS legally. See you next week.

    My PS3 just broke – Redux

    Monday, September 29th, 2008

    Bad news. The wireless controller/BD remote losing connection issue popped up again, first reported here. Basically while using the PS3, the Bluetooth wireless functions cease to work – the controller doesn’t work, and the BD remote doesn’t work. The only thing to do is to plug the controller in using the USB cable, which works, or to restart to PS3 and all Bluetooth functions work again.

    I googled for an answer, and found that others have experienced this problem before. I’ve had my BD remote since the day I got my PS3 (it came as a bundled deal), and it has never happened to me before in the 8 months I’ve had it. But this is a different console Sony have sent back to me. And I’ve gone over the usual troubleshooting tips: shut down all other Bluetooth devices, full system restore …

    So another phone call to Sony tech support seems to be the only solution, and I suspect they’ll ask me to send in the refurbished PS3 again. Sigh.

    Update: I’m holding off calling Sony tech support until I can confirm the problem once more, just to be sure.