DVDGuy’s Blog @ Digital Digest

2009 is now over, and we now have enough stats to go back and review the entire year, with focus on the PS3, Xbox 360 and the Nintendo Wii. The stats are from NPD, and are for the US market.

The total hardware sales figures for 2009 are as follows:

• DS: 11,185,400 – up 12.4% (from 2008)
• Wii: 9,594,000 – down 5.7%
• Xbox 360: 4,770,700 – up 0.8%
• PS3: 4,334,500 – up 22.3%
• PSP: 2,495,900 – down 34.8%
• PS2: 1,799,900 – down 28.1%

This is a breakdown of these numbers, for the Xbox 360, PS3 and Wii:

NPD 2009: Console hardware sales breakdown

If you compare the above graph with the equivalent one for 2008, you can see that overall, the situation is still fairly similar. The Wii domination is still present, although it has lost a small chunk of that pie to the PS3 mostly (the Wii had 55% of the three way pie in 2008, compared to 51% in 2009). The Xbox 360’s market share remains quite similar, with the green piece of pie above representing around 25.5% of the market (in 2008, it was 25.6%). So the quick conclusion is that the PS3 is the winner in terms of growth in 2009, with the Xbox 360 just about pulling even, and the Wii losing out. Looking at the total hardware sales numbers above the graph, this is pretty evident, with Wii sales down nearly 6% for the year. Wii sales has been disappointing for much of 2009, even when PS3 sales were also disappointing at the beginning of the year. It was during this time that Xbox 360 sales were strong, but there was a weak period in the middle for the Microsoft console. The PS3 finished the year strongly, and the Wii even stronger. So while the graph seems to show the PS3 taking away sales from the, the actual series of events was more complicated.

Of course, if there is one event which really defined the year for the PS3 then it came in September when the PS3 Slim was released. More importantly, it was also this time that Sony decided to cut prices for the PS3, to bring it more in line with that of the other two home based consoles. To demonstrate this turning point graphically, it is best to compare sales of the PS3 to the Xbox 360 both before and after the official introduction of the Slim:

NPD 2009: Hardware Sales, Before PS3 Slim/Price Cut

NPD 2009: Hardware Sales, After PS3 Slim/Price Cut

I think the graphs speak for themselves. Note that it again would inaccurate to say that PS3 took sales away from the Xbox 360, and although there is some truth in that, it isn’t the whole picture. The above graphs are almost exactly the opposite of what happened in 2008, when the PS3 had a good lead over the Xbox 360, but the subsequent price cuts helped the Microsoft console fight back in style. The PS3 “fightback” was less stylish than what happened last year, but the price cut was also more moderate, and the Xbox 360 had Modern Warfare 2 to help with sales.

Now let’s look at game sales. Looking only at the monthly number one titles, here they are:

NPD 2009: Monthly Number One's

NPD 2009: Monthly Number One's

Microsoft’s dominance continues on from last year (60.96% back then versus 60.14% in 2009), but the Wii has managed to grab a few more spots, with the a single title that won best selling game of the month for the PS3. Only looking at the monthly number one’s is always a bit misleading, because monthly winners do not always equal yearly winners, and several of the listed titles are not in the yearly top 10. But monthly number ones are important, in that it provides hype and recognition for the console and games that win it. Developers will develop for the console that can allow them to top the monthly and yearly charts. But this is also where we see the big problem with the Wii, that despite having many monthly number one’s, all of them are first party Nintendo developed games. Third party games on the Wii are doing quite poorly and many developers have already signaled their intention to reduce resources towards Wii game productions, which is not good news in the long term for Nintendo. So while Nintendo is making the big bucks, they need to share or end up with a console with a very limited range of in house produced games.

Taking the above approach and extending it to the top 10 games every month, we have the following breakdown in terms of game units sold:

• Wii: 22,600,500 (43.65%, up 523,400 from 2008)
• Xbox 360: 20,425,300 (39.44%, up 1,500,700)
• PS3: 8,756,100 (16.91%, up 2,388,900)

NPD 2009: Monthly Top 10

On the surface, this seems to indicate tremendous growth for software sales in 2009, but software revenue is down nearly 10% compared to the year before. The biggest games of 2009 were bigger than the biggest games of 2008, but everything else was down. But you will also see the Wii domination here, and the software growth for the PS3 as more and more consoles get into people’s homes.

The yearly top 10 will give us an even better picture of where things are, although at the current time of writing, I do not have actual figures for sales, just the ranking, which you can see in the table below:

NPD 2009: Yearly Top 10

If and when I get concrete stats, I will update this article with them and the related graphs, but even without them you can see the clear Nintendo domination in games. While the Xbox 360 had the top title in Modern Warfare 2 (whereas last year’s top 4 were all Wii titles), it appears that the Wii domination has been extended. The PS3 still has the solitary single game in the top 10. But again, the problem of poor third party games on the Wii is clearly evident, 6 Wii titles and 1 DS title in the top 10 and not a single third party game. Meanwhile, the top Xbox 360 game and the only PS3 game were all third party titles. It’s clear why third party publishers like Activision or EA likes the PS3 and Xbox 360, and not so much the Wii when it comes to counting profits. It is an area that Nintendo needs to work on, perhaps helping third party developers to get more out of the Wii and throw in some more promotion and product bundling.

What the stats that I posted monthly, and what is shown above doesn’t tell you is overall revenue. Gamasutra has these stats here and despite the PS3, Sony is actually the biggest loser of 2009, in terms of revenue. This is because despite positive PS3 growth, PS2 and PSP sales are down 28 and 34% in number of units sold and probably greater in terms of revenue due to price cuts. Sony lost more than a billion dollars worth of revenue between 2008 and 2009, and the market share of the PlayStation brand shrank from 34% in 2007 to 26% in 2009. Nintendo is the big winner, and now controls 50% of the market in terms of revenue, with the Xbox 360 being a small winner compared to 2008, but still losing market share compared to 2007. While Sony may be confident that PS3 growth will eventually replace lost PS2 sales, the PSP is less positive and has not been able to compete with the DS and DSi for sometime now, with the DS/DSi recording the second best set of growth numbers in 2009 . For Microsoft, having only a single home based console, there’s less room to maneuverer and they will hope that Project Natal will be able to grab back some of the market share from the Wii’s casual gaming audience.

So that was the year that was. The economy, PS3 price cuts, and a few selected high profile games (Modern Warfare 2 comes to mind) were the major factors influencing the year. While sales are down compared to 2008, which was a record year like never before, the industry can still be relatively positive and 2009 still represents the best year apart from 2008.

We now have the figures for December, the busiest time of the year traditionally for video game sales. With the economy the way it is, the PS3 Slim and price cut led charge by Sony, and the up to this point fairly disappointing year for Nintendo, all eyes are on the final month of 2009 to see where we are in terms of the industry. The figures are from NPD, a marketing research firm that releases games console sale data every month.

The figures for US sales in December 2009 are below, ranked in order of number of sales (December 2008 figures also shown, including percentage change):

• Wii: 3,810,000 (Total: 27.1 million; December 2008: 2,150,000 – up 77%)
• DS: 3,310,000 (Total: 39.4 million; December 2008: 3,040,000 – up 9%)
• PS3: 1,360,000 (Total: 11.1 million; December 2008: 726,000 – up 87%)
• Xbox 360: 1,310,000 (Total: 18.6 million; December 2008: 1,440,000 – down 9%)
• PSP: 654,700 (Total: 16.9 million; December 2008: 1,020,000 – down 36%)
• PS2: 333,200 (Total: 45.3 million; December 2008: 410,000 – down 19%)

NPD December 2009 Game Console US Sales Figures

NPD Game Console Total US Sales Figures (as of December 2009)

My prediction from last month was:

December hardware sales should be even higher than November’s based on past trend, but with MW 2 still selling in good numbers, it should help the Xbox 360. But I suspect it will be a closely fought race between the Xbox 360 and PS3 for the third place finish, behind the DS and Wii at first and second. Software wise, MW 2 should still be selling well, and should hold top spot, although Wii Fit Plus may make a surprise surge. But in all likelihood, both versions of MW 2 will probably beat New Super Mario Bros. Wii to furnish the top 3 spots. Overall software sales will be down, because it will be hard to beat this month’s figures.

The race between the PS3 and the Xbox 360 was indeed a close one, but one that the PS3 ultimately won, albeit by only a couple of percentage points (the PS3 had 12.62% of the console market, the Xbox 360 had 12.15%). The demand for Blu-ray was obviously higher than the demand for Modern Warfare 2, which did not do as well as I expected, or more precisely, other titles managed to break even more records. And by other titles I mean Wii titles. The Wii is the success story for December 2009, and reversed the trend for the entire 2009 in a single month. It was this hardware led surge by the Wii that helped several Wii titles, the ones that every Wii owner seems to have (and the ones that new owners must buy), that also helped Wii software to surge, taking the top 3 spots comfortably. This is why the second part of my predictions, the software based ones, proved largely to be incorrect, and I, and many others, underestimate the demand for the Wii (yet again, it seems, for another holiday season).

To highlight just how amazing and how against the trend the December Wii numbers are, here are some stats:

• December 2009 sales of the Wii are 77% higher than that of the same period in 2008, which back then was a record in itself
• From March 2009 to November 2009, the average growth rate for the Wii was negative 41.2% (in other words, for these nine months, Wii sales were down an average of 41% compared to the same months in 2008)
• Wii sales for December 2009 was higher than April, May, June, July, August, September, October and November of 2009 combined!

And when you add in the amazing DS numbers, which also recorded year on (record) year growth, it seems Santa managed to bring a big gift for Nintendo, and exactly when they needed it as well.

Of course, the other success story for the second half of 2009 has been the PS3. The price cut and the PS3 slim has revitalized the console when it looked like coming a distant third in the home console wars for this generation. While there’s nothing to suggest the PS3 will dominate like the PS2 of the previous generation, not if Nintendo can do anything about it, but there are signs that it might yet beat the Xbox 360 given enough time. The increasing popularity of Blu-ray, and more importantly, the lower price of the PS3 (which makes it once again able to compete with standalone players, something that it couldn’t do in the first half of 2009), has helped it overcome the Xbox 360’s Modern Warfare 2 led hardware surge. The year on year growth figure of 87% is amazing, but probably more amazing than it actually is, considering how badly the PS3 was selling this time last year (behind the PSP, and half of the Xbox 360). If anything, the PS3 is only starting to sell at the levels that many had expected at this stage of its lifespan, and it had been seriously under performing before the recent changes.

With Nintendo sitting happy at the top, and the PS3 jumping over the Xbox 360, Microsoft might be worried, and they probably are. But that’s only because of the previous successes of the console, making the current numbers, which Microsoft would only have dreamed of at the launch of the console, seem so disappointing. Nobody expected the Xbox 360 to stay ahead of the PS3 for very long after the PS3 launches, not even Microsoft and not after all the RRoD problems. But while monthly sales have only started to lag behind the PS3, it still holds more than a 7 million lead over the PS3 on the console front, and that lead should last for a while yet at the PS3’s current growth rate. And, Microsoft will hope, that when Natal is out at the end of the year, it will give the console enough momentum to see out the rest of this generation, although it will have to ride out 2010 and hope that Sony doesn’t catch up too quickly.

In any case, December 2009 was an excellent month for gaming, the best ever in fact, and managed to easily beat the record breaking December 2008 largely thanks to Nintendo (and with Sony finally doing as well as it’s supposed to). The top 10 game sales also managed to beat the top 10 of December 2008, but 2009 still marks a largely down year compared to 2008. As mentioned previously, the Nintendo Wii surge helped Wii games to dominate the top 10 charts as well. The average new Wii buyer will almost always buy one or all of the following “must-have” titles: Wii Play, Wii Fit (Plus), Mario Kart and the new Wii Sports Resort – and all of these managed to get into the top 10, even if some have been missing from the list for most of 2009 due to lackluster hardware sales. The other consoles don’t really have these kind of must-have games, mainly because that Wii games age much better than their PS3 or Xbox 360 counterparts. Many still say the best title on the Wii is still the bundled Wii Sports, and it’s hard to imagine a game of this age on the Xbox 360 or PS3 that is still played as often. The Xbox 360 version of Modern Warfare 2 fell from the previous month’s record high to something that’s still quite respectable for a month old game, still selling above the PS3 version but by not as much since the PS3 version’s fall was less dramatic. This now means that almost one in three Xbox 360 owners now have a copy of Modern Warfare 2, which is simply amazing (it’s just over 1 in 4 for the PS3, which is still amazing, especially considering that not everybody likes shooters). MW2 was the only PS3 game in the top 10 though, but the Xbox 360 had two more. Assassin’s Creed II sales on the Xbox 360 nearly didn’t drop at all coming into the second month of release, and the semi platform exclusive Left 4 Dead 2 also recorded similar sales figures as last month. Overall, Wii games dominated with 64.6% of the top 10, with the Xbox 360 getting 22.6%, and the PS3 with 8.1%.

Here’s the complete list of the top 10 software sales:

1. New Super Mario Bros. Wii (Wii, Nintendo) – 2,820,000
2. Wii Fit Plus (Wii, Nintendo) – 2,410,000
3. Wii Sports Resort (Wii, Nintendo) – 1,790,000
4. Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 2 (Xbox 360, Activision) – 1,630,000
5. Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 2 (PS3, Activision) – 1,120,000
6. Wii Play w/ Remote (Wii, Nintendo) – 1,010,000
7. Mario Kart w/ Wheel (Wii, Nintendo) – 936,000
8. Assassin’s Creed II (Xbox 360, Ubisoft) – 783,100
9. Left 4 Dead 2 (Xbox 360, EA) – 728,500
10. Mario & Luigi: Bowser’s Inside Story (DS, Nintendo) – 656,700

January should see huge sales drop across the board, but that’s just a seasonal thing. And as such, it’s very hard to predict the order of things, although I believe the hardware sales ordering will remain the same. On the software front, January will be largely quiet, Mass Effect 2 on the Xbox 360 should do well, and the rest of the top 10 should have a familiar look to December’s. There are some big releases coming in February and March, so consumers can take a breather in January (and save up).

I should say “see you next month” as I usually do, but I will also have a 2009 year in review up in the next week or two, which will go through and summarize the stats for 2009, similar to what I did for 2008 around this time last year. So see you until then.

Update: As promised, the 2009 year in review is now up.

The second busiest month of the year for video games sales in November. And all eyes on this year’s figures to see if a late surge can improve the industry’s fortunes, which looked set to fail in beating 2008’s record year of profits. With the war between the Xbox 360 and PS3 finally heating up some, and the PS3 finally able to beat Xbox 360 sales, the important holiday period will be a key indicator of what’s to come in 2010. And having had a largely disappointing year, the Wii is also looking towards the holiday period, and some hit titles, to give it the boost it needs. And with the biggest game of the year, possibly in history (based on previous sales results), being released in November (Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 2), the figures this month are extremely interesting. You can read last month’s analysis here. The figures are from NPD, a marketing research firm that releases games console sale data every month.

The figures for US sales in November 2009 are below, ranked in order of number of sales (November 2008 figures also shown, including percentage change):

• DS: 1,700,000 (Total: 36.1 million; November 2008: 1,560,000 – up 9%)
• Wii: 1,260,000 (Total: 23.3 million; November 2008: 2,040,000 – down 38%)
• Xbox 360: 819,500 (Total: 17.3 million; November 2008: 836,000 – down 2%)
• PS3: 710,400 (Total: 9.8 million; November 2008: 378,000 – up 88%)
• PSP: 293,900 (Total: 16.2 million; November 2008: 421,000 – down 30%)
• PS2: 203,100 (Total: 44.9 million; November 2008: 206,000 – down 1%)

NPD November 2009 Game Console US Sales Figures

NPD Game Console Total US Sales Figures (as of November 2009)

My prediction from last month was:

Sales will go up considerably compared to October, that’s for sure. The DS will be top, the number two spot will be closely fought between the PS3 and Wii, although I’m leaning towards the Wii winning that battle right now. The Xbox 360 is 4th, followed by the other two PlayStation consoles. Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 2 will be the number one selling game, and the controversial game will be a record seller if the hype is anything to go by. The Xbox 360 version of this multi-platform game should be the one occupying the top spot. Other titles that will do well for the Xbox 360 include Assassin’s Creed II and the console platform exclusive Left 4 Dead 2. For the Wii, a new Super Mario Bros game will always be a hit, and it could give CoD: MW2 some competition (although mainly for the PS3 version, one suspect). Dragon Age: Origins, from the same people that gave us Mass Effect, could make the top 10 as well, since I’ve been hearing a lot about this game recently.

I must admit that it’s easy to make a monthly prediction when, by the time you write it, half of the month has already gone by. But even then, I was wrong, although only about one thing. Most, including me, had predicted the Wii to struggle to beat the PS3, with the Xbox 360 4th overall, but it turned out that the Wii Manged to beat both the PS3 and Wii, and it was the PS3 that finished fourth. Every other thing I predicted came true, except that I thought the new Super Mario Bros Wii game would give at the very least the PS3 version of CoD: MW2 some competition, but the controversial Modern Warfare 2 managed to win handsomely in the software charts this month despite Mario, Luigi and co.

The DS had a huge month, especially when you compare it to the only other portable console, the PSP, and also as the PSP had a new version out recently that should have given it the momentum. Instead, the DS managed to be the number one selling console this month, and was able to beat last year’s record sales quite comfortably. The other piece of good news is that the Wii managed to hold on to second spot ahead of intense competition from the PS3 in the last couple of months, and it managed to do so quite comfortably as well. But even then, the Wii sold 38% less than the same time last year, and has been throughout the year. It was the single biggest drop in sales of all the consoles, but you have to take into consideration the record and unbelievable numbers that it was selling the year before. At the present rate and at the current stage of its release cycle, the Wii is still set to beat the PS2 as the most popular console ever, so Nintendo would not be worried, although they have less to be happy about than a year ago.

While almost everyone thought the PS3 would outsell the Xbox 360, especially given the results of the last two month, the actual result proved to be quite different. The Xbox 360 sold nearly 110,000 more units the than PS3, reversing the trend of the previous two month. There are many reasons for this. One is that because the Xbox 360 is cheaper, cheaper items tend to do better during the busy Thanksgiving holiday period, where the budget conscious buyers are out in force. DVDs had a similar surge in sales compared to the more expensive Blu-ray during the same period, for example. The one reason is simply Modern Warfare 2. While this game is a multi-platform release, the huge install base of the first game in the series on the Xbox 360 and the multi-player nature of the game, meant that many wanting to get the sequel *had* to get it on the Xbox 360, and the software charts will be further prove of this. Microsoft took advantage of this and had quite a few MW2 bundles out, which seems to have proved quite popular with gamers going by the hardware numbers. If not for MW2, I don’t think the Xbox 360 would have outsold the PS3. The Xbox 360 experienced a negligible 2% drop compared to the same month in 2008, so November 2009 sales were extremely positive considering how much of a record year 2008 was.

And so the PS3 came fourth, but had the single largest year on year improvement, with 88% better sales than the same time last year. Sony will claim, and have claimed, that the PS3 was the only home console to record year on year growth, and this is true. Except that the Xbox 360 only missed out on doing the same by a 20,000 units, and that PS3 sales were awful this time last year, it was hard for the PS3 not to improve. However, the PS3 didn’t get as much of a boost from a software release like the Xbox 360, and as I mentioned before, I think it would have beaten the Xbox 360 had MW 2 not been released. So these numbers are still extremely good, but the only real concern is that the gap between the Wii and PS3 seems to be widening again after that big bump in PS3 sales in September, thanks to the simultaneous release of the PS3 Slim and the price cut, seems to be dissipating. We’ll know more after the holiday period is over, and whether the PS3 can maintain its momentum, or whether it will need further price cuts to try and beat the Wii. To be honest, I think it’s already too late for the PS3 to win this generation, so the best it can do is to beat the Xbox 360, which seems likely. For Sony’s other consoles, I will be surprised if the PS2 is still around the same time next year, and the PSP is struggling badly even with the new PSP Go, dropping 30% in sales even with the new model. It’s too late now, but the PSP Go should really have been Sony’s response to the DS, which will now monopolise the portable gaming industry.

Overall, November 2009 did worse than November 2008. Some of it is due to the economic situation in the US. Quite a bit of it has to do with Wii sales dropping, although they were always going to drop at some stage (it’s better to think of the Wii’s first two years as simply extraordinary, and the current year’s sales as “normal”). 2008 was always going to be hard to beat, but 2009 is still the best year in sales outside of 2008, and that’s positive for the industry.

On to software sales now. The amazing figures for Call of Duty: Modern Warfare says it all really. Over 4 million copies of the game sold on the Xbox 360 alone, with 6 million combined for the two consoles, and not even counting the PC version and any console bundled versions. That’s amazing for any single game, and completely blows away all previous records, whether that was for GTA IV, or Halo 3 or the first Modern Warfare game. The Xbox 360 version easily outsold the PS3 version by more than a 2:1 margin, higher than the actual hardware ratio lead that the Xbox 360 enjoys, meaning that a higher percentage of Xbox 360 owners purchased this game compared to PS3 owners. The stats seem to show that one in four Xbox 360 owners purchased a copy of this game, and that’s only in the first month of release as well. Also contributing to this month’s amazing software sales figures is the new Super Mario Bros. game for the Wii, which managed to sell over a million copies as well. Assassin’s Creed II did well on both the Xbox 360 and PS3, with the Xbox 360’s lead less than 2:1, although still higher than many recent multi-platform releases which has seen the PS3 version almost sell on level terms with the Xbox 360 version, despite the lower hardware numbers. The Xbox 360 exclusive Left 4 Dead 2 also helped to improve the Xbox 360 software numbers. Overall, the Xbox 360 dominated the top 10, with 52.8% of all sales belonging to the platform. The Wii was second best with 27.1% of all top 10 sales, the PS3 with 20.1%.

Here’s the complete list of the top 10 software sales:

1. Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 2 (Xbox 360, Activision) – 4,200,000
2. Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 2 (PS3, Activision) – 1,870,000
3. New Super Mario Bros. Wii (Wii, Nintendo) – 1,390,000
4. Assassin’s Creed II (Xbox 360, Ubisoft) – 794,700
5. Left 4 Dead 2 (Xbox 360, EA) – 744,000
6. Wii Sports Resort (Wii, Nintendo) – 720,200
7. Wii Fit Plus (Wii, Nintendo) – 697,000
8. Assassin’s Creed II (PS3, Ubisoft) – 448,400
9. Dragon Age: Origins (Xbox 360, EA) – 362,100
10. Mario Kart w/ Wheel (Wii, Nintendo) – 315,000

Time to make a prediction. December hardware sales should be even higher than November’s based on past trend, but with MW 2 still selling in good numbers, it should help the Xbox 360. But I suspect it will be a closely fought race between the Xbox 360 and PS3 for the third place finish, behind the DS and Wii at first and second. Software wise, MW 2 should still be selling well, and should hold top spot, although Wii Fit Plus may make a surprise surge. But in all likelihood, both versions of MW 2 will probably beat New Super Mario Bros. Wii to furnish the top 3 spots. Overall software sales will be down, because it will be hard to beat this month’s figures.

See you next month.

We’re nearing the two busiest months of the year in November and December. Last month, we saw the PS3 take top spot thanks to the price cut and the new Slim model. At that time, I questioned the longevity of this bump in sales, whether it was a long term thing thanks to the lowered price, or whether it was a temporary bump due to people upgrading their existing consoles to the Slim. This month’s figures should give us a better idea as to what has occurred. The figures are from NPD, a marketing research firm that releases games console sale data every month.

The figures for US sales in October 2009 are below, ranked in order of number of sales (October 2008 figures also shown, including percentage change):

• Wii: 506,900 (Total: 22.1 million; October 2008: 803,000 – down 37%)
• DS: 457,600 (Total: 34.4 million; October 2008: 491,000 – down 7%)
• PS3: 320,600 (Total: 9.1 million; October 2008: 190,000 – up 69%)
• Xbox 360: 249,700 (Total: 16.5 million; October 2008: 371,000 – down 33%)
• PSP: 174,600 (Total: 15.9 million; October 2008: 193,000 – down 10%)
• PS2: 117,800 (Total: 44.7 million; October 2008: 136,000 – down 13%)

NPD October 2009 Game Console US Sales Figures

NPD Game Console Total US Sales Figures (as of October 2009)

My prediction from last month was:

It’s time to make a prediction of October 2009’s results. For my money, I’ll say that the order of the hardware sales will remain the same, although the Wii numbers will be closer to the PS3 numbers. The PSP Go debuts, but based on an Australian report about the poor sales figures (a couple of hundred sales per week in an entire country, is not the best), the impact of the PSP Go may be muted. Sony will continue to have good month, but this time backed up in software sales as well with Uncharted 2. It might not sell enough to top the number one title, which might be Wii Sports Resort. Wii Fit Plus might take a place in the top half of the charts as well. I expect FIFA 10 to show up in one of more flavors in the top 10. Borderlands might make a showing too.

Some right, some wrong. The biggest surprise, if you can call it that, was that the Wii price cut managed to do enough to unseat the PS3 from the top spot. Part of this was also due to the price cut, Slim induced sales bump not lasting as long as one would expect. This is true of the Xbox 360 price cut as well, and if November wasn’t such a bumper month for sales, it might also be true for the Wii as well next month. My predictions about PSP Go sales being relatively subdued was also correct, with combined PSP sales of both the old and new models actually dropping compared to last month (but dropping less than it would have been had the PSP Go not been released). For my software predictions, I was right about Uncharted 2 doing well for Sony, but wrong about it not taking the number one spot. It did, and quite comfortably. Wii Sports Resort failed to keep its sales up, and was beaten in the end by Wii Fit Plus. FIFA 10 did show up, albeit in last place, but Borderlands did well on the Xbox 360 at least.

So let’s take a look at the PS3 numbers first. After a great month in which it took top spot amongst the home consoles for the first time since I’ve started analyzing the figures, it quickly felled back down again, but at least it managed to beat the Xbox 360. We’ll still need a couple of months to see if the price cut has any long term effects, but one thing is for certain, that last month’s bump for the PS3 had parts of it which were very temporary in nature. I would expect a price cut to be more long term, and the introduction of a new model to be more short term (due to the number of people who upgrade, which only occurs once), and so one can conclude that what made the PS3 the number one selling home based console in September was down to a fairly even combination of both events (price cut and new model), but that the temporary has started wearing off for October. Certainly those that expected the PS3 to be selling over the Wii from last month onwards were a bit too optimistic in their predictions, perhaps. In any case, Sony can still be extremely happy with the results, as the PS3 recorded what was the only year-on-year sales increase of all the consoles (more on that later).

The Wii’s sales bump is welcome news for Nintendo in what has been a fairly miserable year, especially in the last quarter. The price cut, while occurring in the last month, seems to have had the full effect in October as the Wii was the only console to record growth compared to September. But the overall picture is still not a happy one for Nintendo, as the year-on-year sale of the Wii saw a huge 37% drop, the largest of any console. Part of this was due to how incredibly the Wii was selling this time last year, way above any expectations. The other part is the slow decline in Wii sales that has occurred over 2009. At least the DS is still doing relatively well, keeping a firm grip on the number one spot and only recording a small year-on-year drop.

The Xbox 360 figures are again not looking great for Microsoft. A huge year-on-year drop breaks the trend for 2009, in which the Xbox 360 was pretty much the only console to record year-on-year growth (or negligible losses in a couple of months). This suggest the PS3 price cut has really hurt the Xbox 360 where it counts, and the fortunes have been reversed for the two consoles post the PS3 price cut, as the PS3 was the one recording large year-on-year sales drops up until the price cut. With Project Natal not coming until this time next year, later than PS3’s motion controller, which might be able to steal the Natal thunder if it’s properly integrated with the PS3 Eye and with useful software, time is running out for Microsoft to do something. To be fair, it was always a difficult struggle for the Xbox 360 to beat the PS3, and it has outperformed everyone’s expectations up until this point. Price cuts had allowed the Xbox 360 to outperform the PS3, but price cuts are not something that can go on forever, and given similar prices, the PS3 with its Blu-ray functionality and more advanced design will always win. So it may not be a case of the Xbox 360 losing to the PS3, but rather, both consoles finding their rightful place now that the PS3 ridiculous pricing has been removed as a factor. For Microsoft, Natal is a step in the right direction, but the November 2010 release date may just be too late to change things. The only thing that Microsoft has in its arsenal is the larger install base of the Xbox 360 over the PS3 in the US, which should at least mean that it will take some time before the PS3 finds parity, and will still allow them to sell software in good numbers until then. And the better multiplayer platform in Xbox Live over the PlayStation Network, and add to that the larger install base, does still give the Xbox 360 some momentum (the “if my friends are already on the 360, I have to be on it too” principle). Making Xbox Live Gold free is probably the only other weapon left for Microsoft to use.

Looking at sales as a whole, October performed badly compared to September and certainly compared to the same time last year. There might be a recession related thing going on at the moment, or just the lack of really big titles, but the stimulus given by the price drops, or new models being released, seems to be the only things keeping the figures from sliding further down. Things will be on the up in November for sure, but the numbers will be extremely interesting to see if there is a year-on-year growth or decline, and whether how well the PS3 numbers do compared to the Wii (and to a lesser extent, the Xbox 360), both to see if temporary factors were responsible for the Wii’s sales increase this month, and again to confirm the longevity of the PS3 price cut boost.

Moving on to software, things are slightly better, although a year-on-year decline was still the order of the day. The top title was a PS3 title for only the second time since I’ve started keeping track (the previous one was Metal Gear Solid 4 in June 2008). Uncharted 2 was the top selling title in question, and being an exclusive, that’s exactly where it should be. But compared to last month’s number one, which was also a follow-up game in a series and also a platform exclusive (Halo 3: ODST), the sales are still somewhat disappointing (Halo 3: ODST outsold Uncharted 2 by a ratio of nearly 3 to 1). Getting more out of platform exclusives, especially high profile ones such as the Uncharted series, whether that’s through more extensive marketing or other tactics, is something Sony can work on to better its software sales. There was only one other PS3 title in the top 10, NBA 2K10, a multi-platform release. There were only two Wii titles in the top 10, Wii Fit Plus as predicted and Wii Sports Resort, which saw sales drop compared to last month. The rest, apart from one DS title, was all Microsoft. 5 titles in the top 10, and even though the highest placed was only third, it still managed to grab 44.3% of total sales, the third best set of results in 2009. Wii games accounted 25.1% of the top 10, and the PS3 was third once more with 25% of sales.

Here’s the complete list of the top 10 software sales:

1. Uncharted 2: Among Thieves (PS3, Sony) – 537,000
2. Wii Fit Plus (Wii, Nintendo) – 441,000
3. Borderlands (Xbox 360, Take-Two) – 418,000
4. Wii Sports Resort (Wii, Nintendo) – 314,000
5. NBA 2K10 (Xbox 360, 2K Sports) – 311,000
6. Halo 3: ODST (Xbox 360, Microsoft) – 271,000
7. NBA 2K10 (PS3, 2K Sports) – 213,000
8. Forza Motorsport 3 (Xbox 360, Microsoft) – 175,000
9. Kingdom Hearts 358/2 Days (DS, Square Enix) – 169,000
10. FIFA 10 (Xbox 360, EA Sports) – 156,000

Prediction time. This is a hard one. Sales will go up considerably compared to October, that’s for sure. The DS will be top, the number two spot will be closely fought between the PS3 and Wii, although I’m leaning towards the Wii winning that battle right now. The Xbox 360 is 4th, followed by the other two PlayStation consoles. Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 2 will be the number one selling game, and the controversial game will be a record seller if the hype is anything to go by. The Xbox 360 version of this multi-platform game should be the one occupying the top spot. Other titles that will do well for the Xbox 360 include Assassin’s Creed II and the console platform exclusive Left 4 Dead 2. For the Wii, a new Super Mario Bros game will always be a hit, and it could give CoD: MW2 some competition (although mainly for the PS3 version, one suspect). Dragon Age: Origins, from the same people that gave us Mass Effect, could make the top 10 as well, since I’ve been hearing a lot about this game recently.

See you next month.

As 2009 winds down, the video gaming industry is actually just getting started. From now onwards, you will see huge increases in video game sales from month to month, but with the economic situation as it is, comparison with previous years may still point to a disappointing holiday season. But there are other factors at play here, most noticeably Sony’s new PS3 Slim, and the corresponding price cuts for all the home based consoles. So September 2009 is an extremely interesting month where the stats will tell us a lot about whether 2009 can be salvaged, or whether it will remain a disappointing year on the video gaming front. The figures are from NPD, a marketing research firm that releases games console sale data every month.

The figures for US sales in September 2009 are below, ranked in order of number of sales (September 2008 figures also shown, including percentage change):

NPD September 2009 Game Console US Sales Figures

NPD Game Console Total US Sales Figures (as of September 2009)

My prediction from last month was:

So for a concrete prediction, I would say the PS3 to outsell the Xbox 360 and the Wii, and the number three being contested between the Xbox 360 and the Wii (too close to call, at this point). The PSP Go is coming in October, so we won’t see the numbers until November. Halo 3: ODST should top the charts next month, followed by Wii Sports Resort. The Beatles game should sell well too, although the Wii SKU may outsell the PS3/Xbox 360 ones.  At least one SKU of Batman: AA should still chart, although whether it’s the Xbox 360 or the PS3 version is too close to call at the moment as well (Xbox 360 users will be fully occupied by Halo 3: ODST to think about buying other games, I feel).

Mostly right, a couple of minor mistakes. As predicted and expected, the PS3 managed to beat the Wii to second place, but it wasn’t enough to unseat the DS as the number one selling game console. I predicted that the Wii and Xbox 360 would be neck and neck, which wasn’t the case, but when I made the prediction, Nintendo had not yet announced the Wii price cut which helped it to at least hold on to third place. The software predictions are mostly correct, even down to the uncertainty as to which platform for Batman: AA was going to win (it was the PS3, beating the Xbox 360 version that finished just outside of the top 10). The Wii version of The Beatles: Rock Band did not outsell the Xbox 360 version though.

So the big news of course are the PS3 numbers, which are simply put, head and shoulders, and a couple of body length, above last month pre-price cut/Slim numbers. There is a seasonal bump from August to September – one can work out just how much by looking at the PSP/PS2 numbers, which weren’t affected by new models or price cuts – this seasonal bump turns out to be around 35%.  Now taking this into account, the PS3 numbers are still about a 100% improvement compared to last month, and this is the amount that the Slim and price cut contributed. Now, how much of it was Slim based, and how much of it was price cut based, is impossible to tell with the numbers I have. The PS3 numbers are also a 112% improvement upon last year’s numbers, which is quite amazing. However, the jump in sales may only be a temporary spike, and it will be useful  to see next month’s numbers before coming to any conclusions. There won’t be a sales drop next month compared to this one, as the holiday season heats up and increases sale naturally, but the question would be how close Wii and Xbox 360 sales are to the PS3, whether the PS3 can hold on to second place or even get first. What is clear though is that the combination of a price cut and a new PS3 model has revived the flagging fortunes of the PS3, although whether this kicks of a period where the PS3 starts to dominate, or whether the Wii and Xbox’s market saturation will prevent this dominance, is a question that can only be answered in a few month’s time.

The biggest loser, and why total hardware sales are still down compared to the same time last year (despite the positive PS3 numbers), is the Wii. Another month in which the Wii managed to sell less than the same time last year, this time by 33%, is just not good enough for Nintendo. The price cut came a bit late to make a huge difference, so Nintendo will hope that its full effects will be felt next month. But what has driven Wii sales, the novelty factor, is starting to wear off. And it will only get worse as Sony and Microsoft debut their own motion systems, especially Microsoft’s Natal which seems a lot more “next-gen” than either the Wii or the PS3 motion controller.

Microsoft, now the least popular of the home consoles, may seem like the biggest loser, but if you look closely at this month’s numbers, they still have something to be happy with. While I don’t think the Xbox 360 Elite is priced competitively enough to combat the PS3, and I don’t think the Arcade can battle with the Wii, it’s clear that by having these two price points, Microsoft want to take on both Sony and Nintendo. It’s not working too well. What would have made more sense was to drop the Pro bundle to Arcade prices, get rid of the HDD-less Arcade model, and price the Elite at much less than the PS3 Slim. But you do get the feeling that any price cut is only a temporary measure until Microsoft unveil Natal, which should push it ahead of the PS3 and the Wii in terms of the novelty factor at least. But as I mentioned above, the other numbers, which is basically the software numbers, are quite encouraging actually, obviously helped by the platform exclusive Halo 3: ODST. In fact, 32% of the total video gaming revenue belonged to Microsoft products (hardware, software and accessories) this month, the single most contribution of any console. For the top 10 software, Microsoft dominated with 64.7% of the revenue, the most dominant performance since I started collecting data, even beating the month when Wii Fit was released in which Nintendo dominated with 61% of the top 10. So it’s not all bad news, and the lead they’ve built up over the PS3 over the last few years should allow them to keep their lead for at least another couple of years, and that’s assuming the PS3 performs as well as this month from now on.

So let’s move onto the software stats. My prediction of Halo 3: ODST and Wii Sports Resort occupying the number 1 and 2 spots respectively was a pretty easy one to make, and it was correct. Halo 3: ODST’s numbers were amazing, making it the 6th best selling SKU launch of all time, very good for a title that was only available on one platform, and an add-on to boot. There was room for 4 more Xbox 360 titles in the top 10. The only slight point of concern was that the PS3 version of Batman: AA outsold the Xbox 360 version, something that rarely happens for multi-platform releases, but the PS3 version did have exclusive content, and as I said last month, the Xbox 360 gamers might have been too busy with ODST to think about Batman: AA. There were only two Wii games in the top 10, gone are the days when Wii Play, Wii Fit and Mario Kart would all make regular appearances. These games have had a good run, but if Wii software sales are to improve, then the platform needs a string of must-have third-party games. Forget about a string, there hasn’t been even a couple of third-party Wii games that can be called “must-have”, so that’s a worrying point for Nintendo. For the PS3, the hardware bump did not translate over to software, with only two titles in the top 10. Madden NFL 10 on the PS3 did well to bridge the gap between it and the Xbox 360 version, but even the Wii version of the Beatles Rock Band game outsold the PS3 version, and so it did not place in the top 10. And as mentioned before, Batman: AA was the other PS3 entry in the top 10, beating the Xbox 360 version which finished 11th (sales figures unknown, but probably just over 200,000, and maybe about 10,000 copies short of the PS3 version). Microsoft’s dominance meant a 64.7% share of the top 10, with the Wii  getting 16.8% (plus 6.7% for the single DS game in the list), and the PS3 on 11.8%.

Here’s the complete list of the top 10 software sales:

1. Halo 3: ODST (Xbox 360, Microsoft) – 1,520,000
2. Wii Sports Resort (Wii, Nintendo) – 442,900
3. Madden NFL 10 (Xbox 360, EA) – 289,600
4. Mario & Luigi: Bowser’s Inside Story (DS, Nintendo) – 258,100
5. The Beatles: Rock Band (Xbox 360, EA) – 254,000
6. Madden NFL 10 (PS3, EA) – 246,500
7. Marvel: Ultimate Alliance 2 (Xbox 360, Activision) – 236,000
8. Batman: Arkham Asylum (PS3, Eidos) – 212,500
9. Guitar Hero 5 (Xbox 360, Activision) – 210,800
10. The Beatles: Rock Band (Wi, EA) – 208,600

It’s time to make a prediction of October 2009’s results. For my money, I’ll say that the order of the hardware sales will remain the same, although the Wii numbers will be closer to the PS3 numbers. The PSP Go debuts, but based on an Australian report about the poor sales figures (a couple of hundred sales per week in an entire country, is not the best), the impact of the PSP Go may be muted. Sony will continue to have good month, but this time backed up in software sales as well with Uncharted 2. It might not sell enough to top the number one title, which might be Wii Sports Resort. Wii Fit Plus might take a place in the top half of the charts as well. I expect FIFA 10 to show up in one of more flavors in the top 10. Borderlands might make a showing too.

See you next month.