DVDGuy’s Blog @ Digital Digest

December 2009 was a monster month for the Wii, having otherwise suffered a pretty bad 2009 (relatively speaking, of course). You can read all about this in the December 2009 NPD US video games analysis post. The PS3 has been averaging close to a 90% year-on-year increase in sales based on the last few monthly figures, although it’s still involved in a close fight with the Xbox 360. Don’t know if this says more about the popularity of the Slim/price cut, or about how poorly the PS3 was doing this time last year. Probably a bit of both.

In any case, all of this is pretty trivial compared to what’s happened in Haiti during the last week. This is a good page set up by Google that gathers all the information you will need, whether it’s to read more about the crisis, to donate or try to communicate with people you know in Haiti.

Starting with the copyright news, Real Networks has lost an anti-trust counter-suit against the MPAA. As you may know, the MPAA sued Real Networks’ RealDVD product, a software that creates a heavily copy protected copy of a DVD that can be played without the original disc. The MPAA won a successful injunction against the sale of Real DVD, but Real Networks hit back with an anti-trust lawsuit claiming the MPAA studios, through DVD copy protection licensing, is operating a cartel and prevents products like RealDVD from existing legally.

RealDVD is another step closer to permanent death, if it hasn't gotten there already

It was always a shot in the dark, so it was no surprise that it missed the mark. The judge explained that no damages could be found from the MPAA’s actions, and that the only damage was being done by RealDVD. Not what Real Networks wanted, and their CEO stepped down, probably not as a result of the court’s decision, but perhaps also not entirely unrelated. So was the judge right in dismissing the case? First of all, a cartel is defined as “a combination of independent business organizations formed to regulate production, pricing, and marketing of goods by the members”. We know that DVD copy protection is so ineffective, that a junior computer science student probably has the ability to break the code in less time than it takes to make a sandwich. And so from a technical point of view, DVD copy protection is useless. But the studios still persist with it, and charges licensing fees all over the place. For something that they know doesn’t work. So instead of acting as a copying deterrent, it’s basically there only for licensing, and through licensing agreements, to prevent people and companies from doing things to the DVD that the studios don’t agree with. And it was with the licensing agreements that they attempt to kill innovative products like RealDVD and Kaleidescape, products that may affect the production, pricing, and marketing of DVDs, and also the studios’ own products like Digital Copy and Managed Copy. And it wouldn’t be like the first time that DRM is used in an anti-competitive way, and even Apple has gotten into trouble in Europe over this very issue. You get the feeling that governments and courts really do not yet understand the full implications of DRM, and its anti-competitive nature when coupled with something like the DMCA, as otherwise the DMCA would never have been passed or there would be provisions in there to force interoperability and to prevent anti-competitive behaviour.

OiNK's founder is found not guilty. Nobody saw that coming, honestly.

But it seems not all courts, and juries, can be intimidated by the copyright holders’ usually well (and expensively) prepared cases. Alan Ellis, the founder of the music sharing service OiNK, has been found not guilty by a UK court, despite the website being shut down in 2007. The “Google” defence was used, in which Ellis’s defence claimed that OiNK operated in the same way as Google, by not actually hosting infringing content, but by simply organising the available information. Of course, this is true of all BitTorrent download websites as well, and the same defence did not work for The Pirate Bay. But for Alan Ellis, this is a major victory, and a permanent one, since there’s apparently no more avenue of appeal for the copyright holders, and so the decision will be final. Whether this sets a precedent that will be referred to in future cases, particularly ones in the UK, only time will tell.

With courts being sometimes unreliable, the RIAA wants the FCC to act and make ISPs copyright cops in the US. ISPs disagree, as do digital rights groups, consumer groups, and some business groups. While these groups have been making the right arguments, I’m still somewhat surprised that more has not been made of the implications of allowing private companies such as ISPs to spy on user’s activities and pass on user information onto other private companies for financial benefit. And even if you take away the privacy arguments, there’s still the issue of whether ISPs have the power or the legal knowledge to determine just exactly what is infringement. I know it is common sense in most cases, but we do have police and courts for reason, and that is to prevent private justice being dished out without regulation to guide the rulings and prevent abuse. If the RIAA is given the power to order ISPs to become copyright cops, do you trust them (or the ISPs, who will be fearing lawsuits from the RIAA if they do not comply) to not abuse this power, which effectively can cut off their most important form of communication, which can lead to serious consequences such as the loss of a job or a business.

In HD news, more information is slowly trickling out in regards to 3D TV and Blu-ray. To summarise the whole situation, I would say that an active shutter LCD glasses will be used, which will require a display with 120Hz refresh. Now, most TVs have that but what they don’t have, at the very least, is the ability to actually accept a 120Hz signal (most accepts the 60Hz as outputted by Blu-ray players, and then duplicate frames to get to display it as 120Hz). This, plus signal processing requirements and certain display issues, will mean that you will definitely need a new TV, unless it is one of the very few that is stated to be 3D ready. For similar reasons, you will also need 3D ready Blu-ray players, although as mentioned here before, the PS3 should be fine with a firmware update (and this may be true of a few other players as well).

A mock up of what the "3D Ready" logo may look like

I suspect as we get closer to the 3D rollout, terms like “3D Ready” will have more meaning, and perhaps some kind of certification and labeling program will be introduced to avoid consumer confusion. So the question many of you may have, and it’s one that I’ve been asking myself as well, is that should you buy a TV now or wait until the 3D ready sets are out. For those in the US, you won’t have to wait long, and if you like plasma TVs, then the new Panasonic 3D line up will be the one you need. The cost of adding 3D compliance to TV sets is probably not all that high, and so I would expect most new models to be 3D ready by the end of the year or sooner. But the real question is do you want or need 3D? That’s a question only you can answer, but my feeling at the moment is that 3D is a gimmick, but one that I would definitely want to experiment with.  So need? No. Want? Maybe. So with that said, if I find a new TV (and I need one) for a good price and I’m in a hurry to buy, then I’ll probably buy it even if it doesn’t have 3D. But I will at least wait until several 3D models are available and then see what the price situation is like, and if there’s no premium on the 3D models (and I don’t expect there to be), then I’ll get one (and then probably spend less than 1% of the time using the TV in 3D mode). If the TV manufacturers do charge a large premium on the 3D models, then I’ll consider that a rip off and buy one of the outdated 2D models on the  cheap.

Speaking of rip offs, how would you like paying $3,500 for a Blu-ray player that only costs $500 (or less). The $3,500 Lexicon BD-30, marketed as a THX certified Blu-ray player, is apparently nothing more than an $500 Oppo BDP-83 with a new outer shell and minor modifications (like a new splash screen when the player loads). The Oppo is not THX certified, but somehow the Lexicon, with practically identical hardware, gets it, which suggest THX certification is little more than handing over some cash to THX, at least in this case. So if you want a THX certified Blu-ray player, without the actual THX logo on the player itself, then I have to throw yet another recommendation towards the Oppo BDP-83.

If standalones are not your cup of tea, and HTPCs with Blu-ray playback are too bulky and noisy for your needs, then Asus may have just want you need. It was only a matter of time before Nvidia Ion enabled Nettops come bundled with a Blu-ray drive and allow you to play Blu-ray movies in these small, quiet systems, and the Asus Eee Box may be the first of many that can do this. They would make ideal home theater PCs, due to the small space, low heat and noise and the usually stylish design of the systems.

And finally in gaming, the NPD analysis sort of covers this week’s news items. The reactions from the companies involved are, as always, positive. Nintendo will be happy no doubt having dominated everything in December, having lost a lot during the rest of 2009. Sony is happy because the PS3 is finally selling in numbers that the successor of the PS2 should be selling at. And Microsoft is happy because they managed to get themselves a good lead over the PS3, and will look forward to holding on before Project Natal arrives, and with all the hype the add-on is getting, there’s a good chance that Microsoft will get a bit of the “Wii-effect” when it comes to selling Natal to non traditional gamers.

The other piece of news is that the PS3 3.15 firmware is now a mandatory install, unlike previous firmware updates that have always been optional. This is bad news for those that have been skipping firmware updates fearing that each update increases the risk of their console suffering the dreaded “no disc reading” problem, or the infamous Yellow Light of Death. While I was a victim of a the “no disc reading” problem after a firmware update, I was recently forced to install 3.15 as well, not because it was mandatory, but because I had to if I wanted to play new Blu-ray movies that required a AACS key update. So far, the PS3 is acting normally, and I had a good chance of that happening since the firmware troubles I suspect affects much less than 5% of all PS3s. Nobody knows just how many PS3s are affected of course, and Sony refuses to even acknowledge there is a problem even after being sued over it, and with most PS3s unaffected, fanboys can easily claim everyone who says their PS3 bricked after a firmware update is a liar or just someone who doesn’t know how to use sofisticated [sic] equipment (until it happens to them, of course). What I really should do now is sell my old PS3 and get a new one, which will be easier to sell now that I’ve managed to get the latest firmware loaded on it. You really do have to admire Microsoft’s eventual response to the RRoD problem, even if you can’t exactly admire the design and engineering of the actual console.

Okay, that’s all I have this week. I will be writing a 2009 year in review type of piece for the NPD video game stats, which should be online this week or the next at the latest.

We now have the figures for December, the busiest time of the year traditionally for video game sales. With the economy the way it is, the PS3 Slim and price cut led charge by Sony, and the up to this point fairly disappointing year for Nintendo, all eyes are on the final month of 2009 to see where we are in terms of the industry. The figures are from NPD, a marketing research firm that releases games console sale data every month.

The figures for US sales in December 2009 are below, ranked in order of number of sales (December 2008 figures also shown, including percentage change):

• Wii: 3,810,000 (Total: 27.1 million; December 2008: 2,150,000 – up 77%)
• DS: 3,310,000 (Total: 39.4 million; December 2008: 3,040,000 – up 9%)
• PS3: 1,360,000 (Total: 11.1 million; December 2008: 726,000 – up 87%)
• Xbox 360: 1,310,000 (Total: 18.6 million; December 2008: 1,440,000 – down 9%)
• PSP: 654,700 (Total: 16.9 million; December 2008: 1,020,000 – down 36%)
• PS2: 333,200 (Total: 45.3 million; December 2008: 410,000 – down 19%)

NPD December 2009 Game Console US Sales Figures

NPD Game Console Total US Sales Figures (as of December 2009)

My prediction from last month was:

December hardware sales should be even higher than November’s based on past trend, but with MW 2 still selling in good numbers, it should help the Xbox 360. But I suspect it will be a closely fought race between the Xbox 360 and PS3 for the third place finish, behind the DS and Wii at first and second. Software wise, MW 2 should still be selling well, and should hold top spot, although Wii Fit Plus may make a surprise surge. But in all likelihood, both versions of MW 2 will probably beat New Super Mario Bros. Wii to furnish the top 3 spots. Overall software sales will be down, because it will be hard to beat this month’s figures.

The race between the PS3 and the Xbox 360 was indeed a close one, but one that the PS3 ultimately won, albeit by only a couple of percentage points (the PS3 had 12.62% of the console market, the Xbox 360 had 12.15%). The demand for Blu-ray was obviously higher than the demand for Modern Warfare 2, which did not do as well as I expected, or more precisely, other titles managed to break even more records. And by other titles I mean Wii titles. The Wii is the success story for December 2009, and reversed the trend for the entire 2009 in a single month. It was this hardware led surge by the Wii that helped several Wii titles, the ones that every Wii owner seems to have (and the ones that new owners must buy), that also helped Wii software to surge, taking the top 3 spots comfortably. This is why the second part of my predictions, the software based ones, proved largely to be incorrect, and I, and many others, underestimate the demand for the Wii (yet again, it seems, for another holiday season).

To highlight just how amazing and how against the trend the December Wii numbers are, here are some stats:

• December 2009 sales of the Wii are 77% higher than that of the same period in 2008, which back then was a record in itself
• From March 2009 to November 2009, the average growth rate for the Wii was negative 41.2% (in other words, for these nine months, Wii sales were down an average of 41% compared to the same months in 2008)
• Wii sales for December 2009 was higher than April, May, June, July, August, September, October and November of 2009 combined!

And when you add in the amazing DS numbers, which also recorded year on (record) year growth, it seems Santa managed to bring a big gift for Nintendo, and exactly when they needed it as well.

Of course, the other success story for the second half of 2009 has been the PS3. The price cut and the PS3 slim has revitalized the console when it looked like coming a distant third in the home console wars for this generation. While there’s nothing to suggest the PS3 will dominate like the PS2 of the previous generation, not if Nintendo can do anything about it, but there are signs that it might yet beat the Xbox 360 given enough time. The increasing popularity of Blu-ray, and more importantly, the lower price of the PS3 (which makes it once again able to compete with standalone players, something that it couldn’t do in the first half of 2009), has helped it overcome the Xbox 360’s Modern Warfare 2 led hardware surge. The year on year growth figure of 87% is amazing, but probably more amazing than it actually is, considering how badly the PS3 was selling this time last year (behind the PSP, and half of the Xbox 360). If anything, the PS3 is only starting to sell at the levels that many had expected at this stage of its lifespan, and it had been seriously under performing before the recent changes.

With Nintendo sitting happy at the top, and the PS3 jumping over the Xbox 360, Microsoft might be worried, and they probably are. But that’s only because of the previous successes of the console, making the current numbers, which Microsoft would only have dreamed of at the launch of the console, seem so disappointing. Nobody expected the Xbox 360 to stay ahead of the PS3 for very long after the PS3 launches, not even Microsoft and not after all the RRoD problems. But while monthly sales have only started to lag behind the PS3, it still holds more than a 7 million lead over the PS3 on the console front, and that lead should last for a while yet at the PS3’s current growth rate. And, Microsoft will hope, that when Natal is out at the end of the year, it will give the console enough momentum to see out the rest of this generation, although it will have to ride out 2010 and hope that Sony doesn’t catch up too quickly.

In any case, December 2009 was an excellent month for gaming, the best ever in fact, and managed to easily beat the record breaking December 2008 largely thanks to Nintendo (and with Sony finally doing as well as it’s supposed to). The top 10 game sales also managed to beat the top 10 of December 2008, but 2009 still marks a largely down year compared to 2008. As mentioned previously, the Nintendo Wii surge helped Wii games to dominate the top 10 charts as well. The average new Wii buyer will almost always buy one or all of the following “must-have” titles: Wii Play, Wii Fit (Plus), Mario Kart and the new Wii Sports Resort – and all of these managed to get into the top 10, even if some have been missing from the list for most of 2009 due to lackluster hardware sales. The other consoles don’t really have these kind of must-have games, mainly because that Wii games age much better than their PS3 or Xbox 360 counterparts. Many still say the best title on the Wii is still the bundled Wii Sports, and it’s hard to imagine a game of this age on the Xbox 360 or PS3 that is still played as often. The Xbox 360 version of Modern Warfare 2 fell from the previous month’s record high to something that’s still quite respectable for a month old game, still selling above the PS3 version but by not as much since the PS3 version’s fall was less dramatic. This now means that almost one in three Xbox 360 owners now have a copy of Modern Warfare 2, which is simply amazing (it’s just over 1 in 4 for the PS3, which is still amazing, especially considering that not everybody likes shooters). MW2 was the only PS3 game in the top 10 though, but the Xbox 360 had two more. Assassin’s Creed II sales on the Xbox 360 nearly didn’t drop at all coming into the second month of release, and the semi platform exclusive Left 4 Dead 2 also recorded similar sales figures as last month. Overall, Wii games dominated with 64.6% of the top 10, with the Xbox 360 getting 22.6%, and the PS3 with 8.1%.

Here’s the complete list of the top 10 software sales:

1. New Super Mario Bros. Wii (Wii, Nintendo) – 2,820,000
2. Wii Fit Plus (Wii, Nintendo) – 2,410,000
3. Wii Sports Resort (Wii, Nintendo) – 1,790,000
4. Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 2 (Xbox 360, Activision) – 1,630,000
5. Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 2 (PS3, Activision) – 1,120,000
6. Wii Play w/ Remote (Wii, Nintendo) – 1,010,000
7. Mario Kart w/ Wheel (Wii, Nintendo) – 936,000
8. Assassin’s Creed II (Xbox 360, Ubisoft) – 783,100
9. Left 4 Dead 2 (Xbox 360, EA) – 728,500
10. Mario & Luigi: Bowser’s Inside Story (DS, Nintendo) – 656,700

January should see huge sales drop across the board, but that’s just a seasonal thing. And as such, it’s very hard to predict the order of things, although I believe the hardware sales ordering will remain the same. On the software front, January will be largely quiet, Mass Effect 2 on the Xbox 360 should do well, and the rest of the top 10 should have a familiar look to December’s. There are some big releases coming in February and March, so consumers can take a breather in January (and save up).

I should say “see you next month” as I usually do, but I will also have a 2009 year in review up in the next week or two, which will go through and summarize the stats for 2009, similar to what I did for 2008 around this time last year. So see you until then.

Update: As promised, the 2009 year in review is now up.

Now that’s more like it. A bit more news finally this week. In fact, there’s a lot of news mainly due to the CES 2010 currently happening in Vegas. Most of the news came out of the show, and most of it was about 3D, which was kind of predictable. While everyone was talking up 3D HD, I had to regress from HDMI back to component due to a broken TV, and then suffer the illogical copy protection system that’s present. Hollywood can be so freaking paranoid at times, and even if their fear is justified, they’re still fighting on the wrong front when it comes to online piracy. How is stopping someone from watching upscaled DVDs through component output going to help stop online piracy? I also took the time to update the MeGUI guides for Windows 7, which works quite well after some initial tweaking needed due to 7’s new built in codecs framework.

Let’s start with the copyright news. The Pirate of the Week award goes to Sony, who managed to not only leak a “still at the cinemas” movie to the PlayStation store in perfect digital quality, but also managed to make it a free download for those quick enough to grab this very special offer. But at least the file was DRM protected so that it couldn’t have been leaked online, right? Um, not quite, and if you search the regular BitTorrent networks, you’ll find a “PSPRip” version of the film which came from this Sony gift. Or should that really be “SonyRip”?

Sony like the movie ‘Armored’ so much that it decided to give it away free on the PlayStation Store

I know the MPAA has been talking about wanting to release movies digitally while they’re still showing at the cinemas, something that cinema owners are vehemently against, but what Sony has done here is probably not what the MPAA had intended. Although the MPAA still had time to roll out a new DRM scheme, which basically “pirates” Disney’s Keychest initiative. Basically, it’s a purchase once, view everywhere scheme, and they intend to do this by adding DRM and online authentication to everything. It seems that the lesson the MPAA learned from the RIAA’s failed experiment with DRM was that it failed because interoperability, that is the ability to play the file everywhere, was not ensured. That’s a valid lesson, but online authentication means that if people are away from the Internet, then their entire movie library becomes useless. And I’m sure there will be device manufacturers that do not buy into the MPAA’s DRM licensing scheme, and hence, interoperability will still be an issue. I think the biggest lesson from the RIAA’s DRM fiasco should be that consumers just don’t like DRM, and that in the end, it wasn’t really necessary anyway since DRM free or easily ripped versions of the music (or movie) will still be widely available and ready to be pirated online regardless of how many layers of DRM you put on the music (or movie).

In fact, just this week, the “consumers don’t like DRM” argument was put forward to the courts in relation to the appeal of the Joel Tenenbaum verdict, the student fined $675,000 of downloading 30 songs. The argument is that because DRM limits choice, the only choice then becomes piracy. I’m not sure I agree with this argument, and I certainly don’t think it will hold up in court, because DRM free alternatives were available in the form of CDs, which can then be easily made into digital form legally (not falling foul of the DMCA because CDs are not DRM’d). The other argument that Tenenbaum’s lawyers will use is that the rewarded damages are just too excessive, which is harder to argue against. It wasn’t as shocking at the $1.92m verdict awarded against Jammie Thomas-Rasset for 6 songs less than Tenenbaum, but the RIAA did it to send a message.

But Sony didn’t like ‘Moon’ at all and refused to support it for an Oscar in order to fight online piracy

While still stinging from the “SonyRip” incident, I guess the suits at Sony HQ decided to balance this kind gift out with something nasty, which came in the form of not supporting their own film, Moon, for an Oscar for which the film’s star Sam Rockwell actually has a chance of winning. The lack of support comes in the form of not releasing screeners to voters, which need to be watermarked to prevent piracy, but Sony doesn’t want to spend the money. Sony says they need the watermarking because the movie is yet to be released in the US, although even the Blu-ray version has been available in the UK since mid November, so there’s hardly a lack of a good source for the pirated version. Another quick check on the regular BitTorrent networks and a DVD rip of Moon is indeed available. The cost of issuing the watermarked screeners would probably be less than the cost of the PR campaign Sony now has to put out to counter criticism of this move from celebrities such as Iron Man Director Jon Favreau and Coraline writer Neil Gaiman. The next step for Sony would be to block the release of a film entirely from all channels, if it’s really that serious about piracy (although it might still get leaked online). Better to destroy the film just after it comes out of post production, than to suffer from piracy, right?

While not doing something as extreme, and for entirely different reasons, but Warner and a few other studios (surprisingly, not including Sony) put pressure on  DVD rental vending machine operator Redbox by refusing to give the right to distribute their movies through this cheaper and potentially revenue hurting new distribution method. Redbox even had to use made up cover art as the studios wouldn’t give permission to use the original artwork, but even the made up art work has come under legal pressure, although Redbox denies any wrongdoing. Warner then attacked Netflix and forced them to delay the rental of their DVDs, although they did offer as a compromise an extended range of movies that will be made available via Netflix’s digital service. All of this is about fighting new delivery methods that are cheaper and more efficient, to protect the dying business model that studios rely on. DVD rental revenue is actually up (cheap stuff sells more, wh0 would have thunk it?), but while the studios were busy fighting online piracy, they forgot that the Internet could also have been used to deliver new services and acts as a new distribution method for their content, and instead passed up the opportunity to the likes of Netflix and Redbox. Just like how the music industry passed up online music selling over to Apple’s iTunes, which is now making huge amounts of money that the music labels should have been making themselves if they had the vision to embrace the Internet, rather than not seeing anything good having come from the Internet at all (to paraphrase Sony Pictures CEO Michael Lynton).

Well if you can’t stop the piracy at the source, then perhaps you can go to the other end. The French government, now the symbolic head of a global crusade against online piracy, plans to put a piracy tax on Google which will be quite a little earner, as well as doing absolutely nothing to stop piracy just like every other initiative.

Onto HD, or more accurately, 3D HD news. Let’s just go quickly through just a small selection of 3D related news items, most to have come out of the CES. ESPN is set to launch a 3D channel for sports programming, including the opening game of the FIFA 2010 World Cup.

Sony, Discovery and IMAX are set to do the same, but we’ll have to wait until 2011 for the new channel. After Toshiba’s first solid, but otherwise uninspiring Blu-ray player, the company’s next three Blu-ray players will be a little bit more feature packed, and yep you guessed it, 3D enabled. Well actually, only one model will be 3D enabled and it won’t be available until later in the year, but the two soon to arrive models will have Netflix, Vudu, CinemaNow and Pandora streaming support, and Wi-Fi connectivity on the more expensive of the two models. On the PC front, PowerDVD maker Cyberlink demonstrated 3D Blu-ray on a PC. The PC should have an easier path to 3D, since most have the processing power required to decode the “twice the information” Blu-ray video stream (one stream for each eye), and everything else can be done in software. Of course, you’ll still need a new monitor and a pair of glasses.

Panasonic already has a range of 3D ready devices ready for release soon

Now there has been some confusion in regards to the requirement for 3D, and I’m still not 100% clear on all aspects of it, but basically, you’ll need a new TV or monitor. For the PC monitor, you’ll need one that can display 120 Hz, but most can only do 60Hz. The reason you need 120Hz is because due to the need to provide two separate pictures (one for each eye), a 60Hz monitor effectively only gives 30Hz to each eye, which is not nearly good enough to ensure a headache free experience. On the home theater front, there’s also some confusion as to whether HDMI 1.4 is needed for 3D Blu-ray. The answer is probably no, since the 3D Blu-ray specs say that the PS3 can be upgraded via firmware to support 3D Blu-ray, and PS3s don’t have HDMI 1.4 connectors. The part of the HDMI specs that provides for the higher bandwidth video transfer needed by 3D Blu-ray apparently already exists, but it was up to manufacturers whether they wanted to support it or not, and since there was no demand for it, most do not support it. HDMI 1.4 will mandate support, and so expect most new 3D ready HDTVs to use this version of the connector, although against it’s not strictly required. Panasonic’s 3D Blu-ray players will actually have both a 1.4 connector and a 1.3 connector for connecting to legacy equipment. And just because a HDTV displays at 120Hz (and even if it had HDMI 1.4), it doesn’t mean that it will be 3D ready. Most TVs display 120Hz by taking a the 60Hz input and then frame double, or even frame quadruple to 240Hz. However, 3D ready sets will need to be able to accept and process the true 120Hz signal that 3D Blu-ray players will output, and most can’t do that at the moment. That’s my take on it anyway, but basically, if the TV doesn’t say 3D ready, then it’s not 3D ready, probably. This information and the new logo for 3D Blu-ray can be found in this forum thread.

And it was a refreshing change to see LG announce a new Blu-ray player and it had nothing to do with 3D. Instead, it has a built in 250GB hard drive, not for storing managed copies (not yet anyway), but for storing downloads from VUDU as well as the user’s own content. Speaking of Managed Copy, there was hardly any mention of it at the CES, apart from Cyberlink demonstrating a jukebox system for Blu-ray which will utilize Managed Copy. Disappointing, but not surprising.

And in gaming, not much other than more 3D stuff, with the PS3, Microsoft still showing off Project Natal, although it won’t be here until 10 month or so from now, so it’s hard to get excited over it yet. Nothing much for the Wii, except it may support Netflix at some stage.

The CES concludes today, so there will be more digestion of the news over the coming week I suppose, as well as any last minute announcements. I’m getting a bit tired of this 3D thing anyway, because I still can’t see past it as just another short lived gimmick, which 3D will always be until the type where you don’t need glasses becomes mainstream. See you next week.

Ever tried to play an upscaled DVD on your DVD or Blu-ray player through component cables? Well, unless you have one of those Asian players that the MPAA hates, then you won’t be able to, all thanks to a quirky copy protection rule that’s frankly just silly. I’ve been aware of this little bit of copy protection silliness, but it hasn’t really affected me since I use HDMI, that is until last weekend.

What happened was that my 5 year and 1 month old Pioneer plasma TV, which came with a 5 year warranty, decided (one month out of warranty for those that are paying attention) to break. Actually, everything works except for the HDMI input, and even that works except when you feed it a copy protected source. Anything that required HDCP no longer worked, and apparently this is a well known problem with early Pioneers.

Diagnosing the problem was difficult at first, because I could get my DVD player’s startup screen, but once I played a disc, everything would go black. But when playing a non commercial disc, everything worked. A little bit of brain work pointed me towards the fact that the HDCP chip for the TV had probably fried. I have a PS3 connected to this TV as well, and nothing would even show up, since Sony took the extra step of ensuring no picture at all if HDCP wasn’t enabled.

As I am in the planning stages of buying a new TV (most likely one of those Panasonic Viera plasmas, since they are now the new Kings of plasma now that Pioneer has pulled the plug), I decided it wasn’t really worth it to try and fix the problem, at least not until I’ve got my new TV. Everything would still work if I connected through component, and to be honest (and even using fairly poor quality cable), the differences were minimal. And that’s when I encountered the silliness I mentioned above.

No HDMI? No problem, on the PS3, sort of ...

The PS3 was connected via a new set of PS3 component cables I got (the fact that Sony only bundles composite cables with the PS3 is an insult the PS3’s HD capabilities, in my opinion – I know that most people use HDMI, but *some* people can’t and by using proprietary connectors, it makes the situation even worse). It took a while to get the picture right (see Addendum below), but once it was working, Blu-ray played great, not as good as HDMI, but hey what can you do, right?

But when it came to playing a DVD, the picture wasn’t so good. While you can watch a 1080p Blu-ray movie in 1080i (or 1080p if your TV supports that kind of thing through component), but you cannot actually watch a 576p (or 480p) DVD upscaled to 720p or 1080i, not legally anyway. Apparently, this is done to prevent copying. Except I can still copy Blu-ray movies outputted to 1080i (or 1080p). To sum up, Hollywood doesn’t want you to make copies of upscaled DVDs (ie. fake HD), but is perfectly happy for you to make copies of Blu-ray movies (ie. real HD). Does this make sense?

A little bit more brain work from me and I think I figured out why it actually does make sense, at least in the twisted logic that Hollywood employs. You see Blu-ray uses a new copy protection mechanism called AACS and as part of the specifications is something Image Constraint Token (ICT), which all Blu-ray movies carry. Basically, this allows component output to be disable or limited to lower resolutions if the studio wishes, which when activated will bring the Blu-ray situation in line with the upscaled DVD situation when it comes to output via component. In order to promote Blu-ray, manufacturers and studios came to an agreement not to implement ICT until later on, I guess they didn’t want to turn off people who had invested heavily in analogue equipment. And, this is the twisted logic part,  because Blu-ray *has* the ability to prevent HD output via component (even though it wasn’t turned on), this is why Hollywood deemed it okay to allow HD output via component for now. If the DVD copy protection scheme *had* the ability to also limit HD output via component at some stage in the future, and chances are, it might have been allowed until studios realised that they have nothing to fear on this front at all. But because the DVD copy protection scheme was invented before upscaling was the norm, the sledgehammer approach was deemed the only solution, and that meant disabling all HD output via component.

There is also another set of twisted logic in play. Analogue means reduced quality, everyone knows that. So Blu-ray via analogue means the copy made is an inferior version compared to the original, which might be okay in Hollywood’s eyes. But if you take a digital standard def DVD, upscale it to high def, and then output that via analogue, and then re-digitize that, then you might end up with a copy that’s fairly close to the original. And that, in Hollywood’s eye, is not okay. Of course, anyone can just rip the DVD and retain 100% of the original quality, which is what everyone does. Just how many DVD and Blu-ray movies are actually pirated via component is quite debatable, not when there are much easier ways to make 1:1 copies. Ironically, DVD ripping may be the only way to watch your legally purchased DVDs upscaled via component, as non copy protected discs are still upscaled perfectly.

Note the two pronged PS3 Slim power cable, which probably means no more component inteference problems on the PS3

So in my situation, until I get my new TV, I’m stuck with watching DVDs in SD, while still being able to enjoy Blu-ray movies in HD glory. At least until some studio implements ICT. Luckily, this problem is largely a problem of the past, as HDMI is now far more common and comes in greater numbers of connectors on TVs than even component, and so it won’t be a problem most people will have to suffer. That is unless your TV’s HDCP chip is fried …

Addendum: I mentioned earlier about taking a while to get the picture right on my PS3 via component. The problem I ran into was the common PS3 component interference problem (horizontal or diagonal wavy lines), as described here on the official PS3 board, and luckily with solutions. My solution to the problem was to follow the information in the posted thread and remove the ground prong from the power plug, and the interference went away. This type of interference doesn’t affect the HDMI output, so that’s why I’ve never noticed it probably until now. Just why I need to do this with what is otherwise a high quality piece of electronics, I have no idea. I have never run into this problem with the dozens and dozens of low, and high quality equipment I’ve ever used, or help install for other people. And I did notice that neither the Wii nor the Xbox 360 uses the ground connector, and apparently the PS3 Slim doesn’t have it anymore either. Design fault anyone?

Welcome to this side of 2010. Feeling any different yet? More futuristic? More spacey? Well, it is the year we make contact and all. As expected, news is fairly non existent, so I’ll spend most of this WNR looking forward to the new year. But first, let’s go through the news …

The proposed UK anti-piracy law will cost more than expected, says the UK government, which still plans to press ahead with the changes. The cost is estimated at half a billion pounds a year, or around $USD 807m, and could see up to 40,000 households lose the ability to pay for the Internet. Remember that this is all the government’s own projections, which might even be far too optimistic. And the most worrying thing about this all is that it might not even stop piracy, as encrypted P2P is now more and more popular and the proposed system will not be able to monitor or stop such activities. It is also unknown why the supposed beneficiaries in this arrangement, the copyright holders, aren’t putting money where their mouths are to solve their own problems (the money paid to lobbyist withstanding).

Blu-ray sales have done extremely well in the second half of 2009, and the last two week’s worth of available data were both record breakers in terms of weekly revenue (see stats). The continuous stream of hit releases in the second half of 2009, many of which are just the right kind of movies for your typical Blu-ray high spender (young, male, home theater enthusiast), have really helped the format. We’re nearly at the stage where 1 in 6 movies sold are on the Blu-ray format, which is still someway away from becoming truly mainstream, but at the present rate, it should get there. Whether Blu-ray can keep going at the present rate, or hit some resistance later on as the user base changes from enthusiast based to your average Joe (who may not care about HD, or even own a HDTV that can truly take advantage of Blu-ray), is hard to say at the moment. This next crucial step is always the hardest, although with HD becoming standard (both in terms of broadcast and TV set sales), Blu-ray seems to be the natural next step. There was also the news that even higher capacity Blu-ray discs may be available without the need (for most) to change hardware, thanks to new techniques developed by Sony and Panasonic.

And that’s the news part over. Let’s take brief look at 2010. Instead of making predictions that probably won’t come true anyway, I will simply go over some of the things that I hope will happen in 2010.

In copyright, I wish that common sense will prevail, but I think that’s unlikely. Instead, we’ll probably see a couple of more victories in the courts for the “bad guys” (and I know I said I won’t make predictions, but I can’t help myself). Governments will take these victories as mandates to radically destroy our rights to help big business, which has been an ongoing theme in the last year and a bit. The ‘P’ in ISP is also likely to change from “Provider” to “Police”.

BitTorrent will change to adapt of  course, because if there’s one thing that digital piracy has shown us is that it can adapt much quicker than the time it takes copyright holders to even consider change. VPN and encrypted BitTorrent to make file sharing anonymous will make the task of monitoring piracy that much harder, which the powers that be will complain about, but they only have themselves to blame really.

But all is not lost, not if copyright holders finally see the light and give people what they want, when they want it. The “how” may mean some compromises by both sides, and by that I mean some form of DRM but not too harsh. Portability and “on demand” will be the driving forces behind this, and while we may never see the day when, for example, movie studios will let us make personal copies of our movies without restrictions, we might just get the next best thing through the likes of Managed Copy and Disney’s Keychest initiative. Speaking of Managed Copy, we shall see whether studios are serious about it in just a few months time, when it becomes truly mandatory and studios have no choice but to support it. If it does work, then it will probably cost money at first to be able to unlock the feature on discs, but as with “Digital Copy” and combos, competition will force studios to package MC in the same “combo” package, with an initial temporary price hike, which will soon dissipate thanks to the ever decreasing Blu-ray pricing. How long before studios start complaining that they’re not making less and less money from Blu-ray, just like what they’ve been doing for the last couple of years with DVD?

It should be another bumper year for Blu-ray, since as mentioned above, the natural next step is to go all HD on every front, including home video. The previously mentioned portability and “on demand” are two things that Blu-ray is going up against, but Blu-ray players, ironically, may be the hardware behind enabling both. Managed Copy (or Digital Copy) can provide portability, which could be a lot more convenient and at least copies that don’t expire, and the Blu-ray player’s Internet connectivity and upgradeable software/firmware makes them perfect set top boxes for on demand services.

It would be nice if MC is properly supported and we see the emergence of Blu-ray servers, large storage devices that can store your managed copies for instant and disc less playback. Basically a Kaleidescape box for Blu-ray’s that won’t get sued by studios.

3D will make some impact, although the more I look at the hardware requirements, the more I think it won’t succeed. It’s one thing to watch 3D movies at the cinema, it’s another to watch it at home on your much smaller screen. And with hardly any TVs available to support the various nascent 3D standards, 2010 may just be too early for 3D adoption to occur. The whole gimmicky idea behind 3D, and the still ongoing debate as to whether 3D makes a film experience better or not, means that there’s a steep hill to climb for home based 3D.

And in gaming, expect the battle between the Wii, Xbox 360 and PS3 to heat up even more, as any of these three could end up the monthly top selling console by the end of 2010. The PS3 will have its Wii remote competitor out, and it will be interesting to see if this will hurt the Wii, which when I look at the their game lineup, is pulling further and further away from the mainstream (which may not be a bad thing). The Xbox 360’s Natal, if the rumored release date of November 2010 is true, will come too late in the year to make a huge impact. Although if it does work, then it could take gaming to the next level in the same way the Wii did a couple of years ago. And if it does work, expect a similar “camera” in a range of electronic devices, that will operate through gesture, face and voice recognition. Don’t be surprised to find that the Natal camera will work in Windows 7 with little fuss and that Media Center can now be gesture and voice controlled.

Okay, enough day dreaming for now. Hopefully, real news (that is, news that is made up by real journalists) will be forthcoming in the next week. See you next week.