Archive for the ‘Movies’ Category

Weekly News Roundup (12 June 2011)

Sunday, June 12th, 2011

Quality over quantity, is something I firmly believe in. Which brings up to this week’s WNR, which is pretty light in terms of quantity of news items, but high in terms of quality of the mindless ranting that I can produce from these discussion worthy stories. So let’s not waste precious words on the intro, and get started with the roundup/rant, because this WNR is a fairly long one.

CopyrightStarting with copyright news, there’s one story that I really want to talk about, you know, the one that may just change the face of the music business, but for now, let’s quickly get through the other stuff.

United Nations

The UN thinks that 'three-strikes' is a human rights violation

You know it’s bad when the UN has to write a report just to call you jerks, but that’s exactly the kind of face slap France and the UK faced this week, when an UN report found that three-strikes anti-piracy legislation is a human rights violation. UN Special Rapporteur Frank La Rue found that cutting off people’s Internet connections, for piracy or any other reason, is tantamount to violating their rights of expression, because governments should not have the right to limit a specific kind of communication. The UN believes that nobody should be banned from using a communication medium, especially by the government, and certainly not for something as trivial such allegations (and they’re only allegations) of copyright infringement. While the Internet is very different, the principle is the same, in that the government should not be able to ban you from using the telephone, reading books and newspapers, listening to the radio or sending letters, as these would all be rights violations (note that whether you can afford to use any of these services, that’s a totally different matter – the point is that if you had the resources to do so, you should be able to do so, without the government interfering). The report made special mention of France’s three-strike laws, and the UK’s Digital Economy Act, so looks like France and the UK will join the list of human rights violators unless they change tract. It’s also a warning to any other country thinking of doing the same (I’m looking at you, Australia).

And it’s not just the UN that is attacking the bias in copyright legislation and legal actions, the legal establishment is taking action as well. The UK Solicitors Regulation Authority (SRA) has handed down its ruling against two former employees of Davenport Lyons who are considered pioneers of the mass copyright lawsuit schemes – and it’s guilty, on all six counts, of professional misconduct. David Gore and Brian Miller came up with the clever idea to extract pre-trial settlement fees by threatening suspected copyright infringers with massive penalties. But following many complaints, from any that said they were completely innocent, the SRA stepped in and a thorough investigation found the pair guilty of a lot of things. If targeting people based on flimsy evidence wasn’t enough (the SRA felt that IP address alone isn’t sufficient, in terms of proving copyright infringement – an important ruling), then targeting knowingly innocent people was a step too far. The pair could now face disbarment. The SRA’s decision is welcomed, but really, everyone knows that, at best, these types of practices are nothing but legal blackmail. Law firms should not be able to ask for pre-trial settlement fees if they have no intention to go to trial, period.

And also bad news for the US Copyright Group in their massive ‘The Expendables’ lawsuit, which now consists of 23,000 named and unnamed defendants. The judge in the case, having earlier allowed the USCG to issue subpoenas to get more information about the defendants, is reconsidering, and is beginning to see the whole thing as “inappropriate and a waste of scarce judicial resources”. And that’s the sensible conclusion that all judges should come to, when it’s plain as daylight that firms like the USCG are out to make money, with almost zero intentions of actually going court. Please refer to the last sentence of the previous paragraph.

iTunes Match

iTunes Match will either make buying music obsolete, or it will do absolutely nothing, depending on who you talk to

And of course, we come to the main course. Steve Jobs’ “one more thing” at the Apple Developer Conference has the whole Internet both excited and confused, with some really angry as well. The whole iCloud thing is fairly standard, but iTunes Match promises to be something else, or nothing at all, depending on who you believe. The problem is that we just don’t have enough information, but based on what we’ve heard so far, anyone could be right. So what is iTunes Match? Well, basically, it’s an addition to iTunes and iCloud that scans your hard-drive for songs, and regardless of whether these were purchased from iTunes, or elsewhere, or even pirated, iTunes Match will try to match the song to one of the 18 million songs in iTunes, and then from that point onwards, you will be able to download the 256 Kbps iTunes legal version of the same song for free on all your iDevices (and if the song doesn’t exist, you can upload your local copy to iCloud). That’s right, even if you have some crappy 128 Kbps MP3 of a song you copied from a friend who downloaded from LimeWire, you’ll now get a clean, high quality (relatively speaking) version of the song from iTunes. After you pay the $25 per year fee, of course. And best of all, all the major labels, all four of them, seems to be fully supportive of Apple’s plans (no doubt because they get 70% of the $25 annual fee).

As so the Internet nearly exploded, with some calling this a piracy amnesty, the term “music laundering” was mentioned, while others feel that it’s $25 to access music you already had, which is totally pointless. The truth is probably somewhere amongst the mix.

Before we get to the pros and cons, let’s just go through how iTunes Match will work, or at least how I think it will work based on the current information. So you start iTunes Match, and it scans the songs on your hard-drive. Now, I doubt it will be as simple as an ID3 tag match, because ID3 tags are not exactly accurate. What I think will happen is an actual audio match, like how the SoundHound app works, which I think should be the most accurate way of matching tracks. And if the song does exist on iTunes, the song is “uploaded” to your iCloud account (and it does not count as quota either), or rather, Apple simply allows you permission to download the song using your iCloud account, and you now get to download (not stream) the same song on all your iDevices, as if you had manually uploaded the 256 Kbps iTunes downloaded AAC to your iCloud account.

So now you know how it works, let’s get some of the misconceptions out of the way. Some are saying this is a Trojan Horse, that by scanning your files, Apple will send all the info to the RIAA so they can sue the crap out of you. This is not going to happen, simply because there does not yet exist a tool that can accurately tell the difference between a DRM-free legal track, a track you ripped from your legally purchased CD, and one that you downloaded from the Internet illegally. First of all, the illegally downloaded track may very well be a DRM-free track that somebody else uploaded, minus some tracking tags perhaps. Or it could be just a CD rip that someone had uploaded, and there’s no way to tell if it’s your CD rip, or someone else’s. Another popular one is that iTunes Match will delete all the matched songs from your hard-drive, thus destroying your precious pirated music collection. Ridiculous really, because what’s to stop you making a backup of the songs before you “iTunes match” it? And why would Apple bother when, immediately after deleting all your shoddy pirated MP3s, they immediately give you pristine HQ AAC copies to download, copies that are also DRM free. As for making your iTunes Match downloaded AACs stop working once you stop paying the $25, not going to happen either, because the tracks are DRM free, and because they’re downloads, not streaming, you can keep downloaded copies forever, on multiple devices, after you stop paying the $25.

So it iTunes Match really a godsend for pirated music collectors, does iTunes Match really give you the iTunes download version of songs even if your original was a pirated track? Yes it does, absolutely. And is this a piracy amnesty or music laundering? It depends.

It depends on information that’s just not available yet, and the differences are very subtle between the “Yes” answer, and the “No” answer, and it’s more of a legal and moral position, than anything else. What do I mean? Well, let’s take someone who decides that iTunes Match is a piracy amnesty, music laundering service, so they go and download 300 pirated songs every month. First of all, the act of downloading pirated songs is still illegal, and iTunes Match doesn’t even come into play here, so you may still get caught and get fined. But let’s assume you’ve found a way to download without being detected, okay, you run iTunes Match on those 300 songs, and voila, record label approved iTunes downloads on your iPod.

iTunes 10

Buying a song from iTunes and downloading a copy from iTunes Match may be two very different transactions, with different legal rights

This is where it gets tricky. See, if the iTunes Match downloads come with the same license as a regular purchased iTunes song, then yes, you’ve just turned pirated songs without licenses into iTunes downloads with licenses, and laundering is complete. However, if iTunes Match merely provide a license to download the matched song, with no proof of purchase included, then no laundering has been done. You still don’t have a proof of purchase for your pirated songs, and you never will. Not that anyone really cares about proof of purchase or anything.

As for the argument that iTunes Match helps people to pirate songs, well, that doesn’t really hold true either, as people need to have pirated before they use iTunes Match. Similarly for the argument that iTunes Match allows people to enjoy more songs than what could otherwise be had for $25, iTunes Match can only allow you to download copies of songs you already have, and if you already have those songs (pirated or legal), then you could already enjoy those songs, so iTunes Match doesn’t really “add” to the enjoyment in any way.

And as for whether iTunes Match will encourage people to buy less, it depends on why people buy songs the first place. Those morally bound to buy them will still do so, same as those who buy music to support the artists (but you’d be better off going to see their concert, as they get more of your money that way). And basically, anyone already buying legal music probably won’t be swayed either way by iTunes Match.

For those that do pirate a lot, iTunes Match may make you feel a little bit better about your activities, with no real legal protection (if, as I assume, you don’t get a license/proof of purchase with your iTunes Matched downloads), and the convenience of having everything done through iTunes (if you think that is a convenience), and all for the low low price of $25 per year. That’s (70% of) $25 more than what the record labels would have gotten before, so for them, it’s a bonus. The only real problem could be that, because of existing artist licensing deals, they may miss out on any share of the $25, so if you want to support the artists, this is not the worst way to do so.

So there you have it, Apple iTunes Match explained. Clear as mud.

High Definition

In HD and 3D news, nothing much again, but NPD has a new research paper out that says Blu-ray penetration, after the first five years of the format, has reached 15%. If this sounds a little bit underwhelming, perhaps it is, because DVDs at the same point had a much higher penetration level.

But Blu-ray is not DVD, and Blu-ray has to work a lot harder for every percent, since it’s a much more subtle upgrade to DVD than DVD was for VHS. It’s like going from horse cart to a car, and then going from a 1990’s car to a brand new model. What I found interesting in the report was that half of the people wanting to buy a Blu-ray player in the next six month wanted one because it could deliver digital content, because all Blu-ray players can do it now. So in a way, Blu-ray is helping optical disc formats stay relevant in the Internet age, and at the same time, it’s helping its own demise by helping to improve the penetration of digital delivery hardware. It’s very much a bridging format, between the optical and digital, but just because there’s a bridge, it doesn’t mean everyone will cross over it, and I still firmly support disc formats because, call me old fashioned, I still like to have something to hold in my hand and also something to display on non-virtual bookshelves.

Gaming

This is a big week for gaming, thanks to E3, but as this is not really a gaming website/blog, I’m going to skip most of E3’s announcement, because I just don’t feel like making a big deal out of the next Batman game or whatever.

But that doesn’t mean there aren’t some announcements that are too big to ignore. Of course, the big one being the announcement by Nintendo of their new console, but I shall ignore this for a moment while I talk about the other game company’s announcements.

Microsoft’s E3 was all about Kinect, and they showed demos of the Star Wars Kinect game, which looks more like an on-rails game, which is kind of disappointing, but probably not unexpected. Microsoft surprised us last year with the Xbox 360 “Slim”, but this year’s “surprise” was less significant, something about Live TV that’s not going to make its way to Australia (although YouTube integration should be helpful, but it’s  hardly unique). Microsoft did unveil Kinect Labs, which is like an app market for Kinect, and it now includes a few free “gadgets”, including one that tries to make a life-like avatar, or one that turns inanimate objects into something that comes alive on the screen (it’s not as good as it sounds). With the Kinect SDK coming soon, launching Kinect Labs is a solid step. As for full Kinect games, Microsoft promises more on the way, including Mass Effect 3, which will allow you to speak the lines of Commander Sheppard as a way to choose dialogue options (of course, you could just select and click – and since the character itself always elaborates on the chosen dialogue, speaking out the choice may feel a bit strange, like saying everything twice). As for why Kinect is needed for simple voice recognition, when a headset is all that’s required, BioWare says it’s all to do with the Kinect system, where developers don’t need to do much when it comes to doing voice recognition as it’s all handled by the Kinect hardware/software combo. Microsoft even promised that all first party games will come with some Kinect interaction, which is something that I felt was the right thing to do back when Microsoft were saying they would only make games that could be played entirely with Kinect and nothing else. With EA announcing FIFA will support Kinect, I’m looking forward to taking and saving penalties by kicking and diving around the living room.

PlayStation TV

PlayStation TV can let two players play on the same screen without a split screen, using special glasses based on 3D technology

For Sony, other than apologising to everyone over and over again, E3 was about the Next Generation Portable, now called PlayStation Vita (vita means “life” in Latin and Italian, of course). Sony have already announced a lot about NGP/Vita, so there were no big surprises. What I found interesting was the PS3 branded TV. What was interesting is that it allows two players to play on the same TV *without* a split screen, and that’s totally possible using the 3D TV in a 2D way. 3D works by displaying two images at the same time (well, not really, but that’s what our eyes perceive when looking at the picture without the glasses), with the glasses separating the image into ones for the left and right eyes. The same principle can be used to display two images, one for player one, and one for player 2, and if the glasses instead of separating the image for each eye, simply separated the image for different players, then you have two player gaming without split screen. Of course, without glasses, it will look like a right mess. Theoretically, with the right glasses, almost any 3D TV can be made to do the same. Whether it’s better to wear glasses and have a full screen picture, or to not wear glasses and have a split screen, that’s an entirely different debate.

You can read more about the Microsoft and Sony announcements in this news post.

Wii U

The Wii U promises to do a lot ... maybe too much!

And then there’s Nintendo’s announcement. The Wii U will be the Wii’s formal successor. I’m not going to get into the debate about the name, because everyone though the Wii was stupid, and it is, but it didn’t really matter. What does matter is the humongous thing that Nintendo calls a controller, and it’s certainly been a point of debate. By having a 6.2″ touch-screen on a controller, and with the controller’s screen able to interact with the main screen, or even operate independently, it does add to the versatility. For example, you can play simple board games on the controller without even turning on the TV, or use the controller to display additional gaming information à la the dual DS screens, and with Nintendo promising minimal lag between the main screen and the controller screen, it can even be used as part of the game, for example using the controller’s screen as a binocular to zoom in on the action, where the main screen still stays the same (making sniper game play a bit easier).

But as Nintendo later conceded, perhaps too much was made of the controller itself, and not enough on the console. The Wii U console will be more powerful than the Xbox 360 and PS3, considering it is using hardware that’s years newer than what’s in those other consoles, and so with the gaming line-up, it seems Nintendo is firmly moving back into the ‘hardcore’ gaming sector, after straying perhaps a bit too far with the original Wii. That should help Nintendo, because the Wii U is still very “family friendly”, and even if you don’t like the new controller, all old Wii accessories will still be supported, as well as full backwards compatibility for Wii games.

And this could also be perhaps Nintendo’s biggest problem. The Wii was simple, clearly focused at one sector of gamers, but the Wii U tries to do much more, and it is this versatility and ambition that could ultimate sink it as a console. Everyone can imagine what you can do with a Wii-mote, and it was perfectly demonstrated by just one play of Wii Sports, but it’s much harder to imagine what you could do with the Wii U controller. Plus, with Nintendo intent on making the Wii U a hardcore gamer’s console too, as well as a console for the smartphone/tablet gaming generation, and maybe even taking on the portable consoles market that’s already dominated by their own DS, it may be trying to do too much with the same console. Or it could work out great, who knows.

Alright, that’s more than enough writing for this week, I just hope it’s not a long and laborious read. Well, not more than usual anyway. See you next week.

Weekly News Roundup (5 June 2011)

Sunday, June 5th, 2011
ASUS P8Z68-V PRO

If this picture of a motherboard turns you on, then my computer buying guide is for you

Are you planning to buy a new PC soon? And are you willing to spend more money on a PC than what’s considered sane today? Then read the latest edition of my If I Were To Buy A New Computer Today feature, dubbed the Sandy Bridge edition, as this is the CPU that’s all the rage these days. You may laugh and point at any guide that recommends paying more than $1800 for a new PC, in these days of tablets and netbooks and whatnot, but hey, some of us still play PC games. And do CPU intensive things such as video conversion. I have to say, the most exciting thing about Sandy Bridge for me, apart from the lower starting price points for such a new part, is the SSD caching feature introduced by the new Z68 chipset. Regular reader(s) will be aware that I’ve been bigging up SSDs since 2009, but the stupid things refuse to drop down in price enough to prove that I was right. But with SSD caching, where you use a much smaller (and hence, cheaper) SSD drive as a cache for your TB sized cheap HDDs, can give you some of the benefits of SSDs without most of the negatives (low capacity, high price, etc…). For this alone, Sandy Bridge is worth upgrading too, even with the added hardware DRM (or not).

News wise, it’s not been a huge week, hence why I felt the need to pad the week with the computer buying feature. So let’s get started.

CopyrightLet’s start with the copyright news, which surprisingly, isn’t too forthcoming this week. In fact, there is only one story in the “copyright gone insane” category this week, which, you have to say, is an improvement.

Unfortunately, this one is right up there in the insane rankings, as the US senate debate plans to jail people up to 5 years for sharing YouTube videos. This isn’t as far fetched as you might think, because this is one of those “road to hell is paved with …” things, and if you break down the issues, all of them seem to make sense. First of all, you have the disharmony between civil and criminal copyright laws, in which there are civil penalties for performances, but no criminal penalties. So let’s “harmonize” the two sections of the copyright act. Fine. How about classifying video streaming as a kind of performance? Well, it appears the courts have been doing this for a while now, so I guess it’s fine too. And what about the differences between hosting a video, linking to it and embedding it on your website? Well, ICE has seized several domain names recently for websites that only linked or embedded content, uploaded to websites such as Megavideo, and ICE got the seizure orders by going through the court (albeit in a very one sided argument), so I guess that’s not a huge problem either. So to sum up, video streaming is a performance, and hosting, linking and embedding is really the same thing, when the court is concerned these days. And an unauthorized performance should carry criminal sanctions of up to 5 years in jail, much like like every other kind of copyright abuse. Add them all up: new senate bill that could lead to 5 years in jail for embedding YouTube clips. Now, if Senators are more educated when it comes to technology, particularly the issue of Internet content distribution, and/or if they’re not being “pressured” by lobbyist, then maybe, you would have a bill that doesn’t threaten to send half of the entire US population to jail (who hasn’t embedded a video, and who hasn’t done it with a video that used copyrighted clips, even if only for a small part of the video or soundtrack). For example, you could ensure that criminal sanctions would only apply in the case of massive infringement, such as linking/embedding thousands of videos, and for profit. Instead, we have a bill that describes a digital “performance” as 10 viewings in any 180 day period. Maybe in the real world, if I had a show and 10 people turned up, that may count as a performance. In the digital world, 10 views is hardly viral stuff, especially if it took 180 days to get this many views. But what can you do? Well, you can go after the people that upload the infringing content and only those people, but that would be too hard, so let’s just arrest everybody.

yongzh's N64oid Emulator App

The removal of yongzh's emulator apps from the official Android Market by Google may not be what it looks like

There are two more copyright related stories, but they’re not as crazy, and so as a rule, are not as interesting. First up, we have Google possibly going after emulator apps on the Android Market, with apps from two developers being removed in the past month alone. Emulators have been proven time and time again to be legal in courts all over the world, so Google going after them, especially proclaiming Android as the “open” platform, seems to be a bit hypocritical. On the other hand, we don’t know why the removed apps were removed, while others are still happily being offered, so perhaps there are other reasons for the removal. Certainly, with some of the removed apps by developer Yong Zhang, there are licensing issues at play (open source related stuff), so who knows. If by this time next month, more emulators have been removed, then perhaps it signifies a trend. Right now, it just means you’ll have to get these apps from one of the billions of other Android markets.

The other Android related story has a bit more substance to it. This involves the newly released YouTube video rental service on the mobile platform, and how you can’t use it on rooted phones. It’s definitely a DRM related thing, and I’m sure the content holders providing content for the service will have asked for  these draconian restrictions. But it’s the typical backwards thinking that plagues the digital entertainment industry, where they’re so afraid of their precious streams being stolen, that they end up barring people from being able to pay for content, legally. Wouldn’t it be better to ensure more people had access to your legal service, as opposed to less? And it’s not as if ripping movies from DRM protected YouTube video streams is the most popular or easiest way to illegally obtain or share movies online, so they could have no DRM, and nobody would probably even bother, when they can just rip a DVD or Blu-ray. It’s like HDCP protection in HDMI, which was initially such a big deal and caused untold compatibility problems and silliness, because content owners were afraid people would record/rip digital content straight from the cable, if it went unprotected. Then HDCP got cracked, as expected, and do we see a huge surge in HDMI-rips? No. Do you know why I know? Because I just made up the term “HDMI-rips”. In fact, if you search for “HDMI rips” on Google or Bing, all you end up with are articles about HDMI cable rip offs, which is a discussion for another day.

Also, if I somehow manage to get the YouTube rental app running on my rooted phone, does that stream them become unauthorized, and jail time?

High Definition

In HD and 3D news, following last week’s story about the 3D cinema craze coming to an end, box office results for the US Memorial Day Weekend seems to suggest that it really is happening.

The long weekend capped off a set of very disappointing results, but only for 3D showings. In fact, the best performing movie wasn’t even available in 3D, and perhaps it was only successful because of the lack of the 3D distraction. Certainly the theory mooted last week was that for every extra dollar that 3D presentations earn, there’s more money being lost through increased 3D production costs, marketing costs, and lost sales at the popcorn stand. But it’s the usual Hollywood thing, 3D for 3D’s sake, whereas they’d better off having movies like Avatar that’s been written, directed and shot for 3D, even if it means only a couple of such movies every once in a while. But no, everything has to be in 3D, and the hype dies out because of all the lame 3D movies.

Gaming

And finally in gaming, after a nausea inducing session of Wipeout HD on my 3DTV yesterday, I can confirm the PSN is back and the “Welcome Back” goodies are now available to download as well (I still haven’t made my decision on which other free game I will download).

PSN Welcome Back Pack

PSN is back online, and the welcome back pack is available to download

Those that want to download the free games need to be patient though, because the claim and download process for me was riddled with error messages, that retrying time and time again seem so to fix. Some will and are still complaining about the free games being offered, and how old most of them are, but as someone who didn’t really used the PSN that much in the past before, I’m not complaining too much.

So just as things seems to be getting back to normal for Sony, guess what? They get hacked again. It’s not the PSN again, so no need to ring your nearest game store and ask what kind of console exchange offer they have on at the moment, but it’s certainly not what Sony wanted so close to the PSN hack. SonyPictures.com was hacked by the same group that recently hacked PBS, with account details accessed and taken, as well as other stuff. According to the hacking group, LulzSec, they had access up to one million Sony Pictures account passwords, all of which were stored as plain text in the database. Read any “noob guide to user databases” on the Interweb, and the first lesson is always about not storing passwords as plain text, so how Sony could have got it so wrong, I have no idea. I guess because no financial information was being stored, Sony thought nobody would bother to hack the database, and the rest is history. It really paints a picture of a company that doesn’t seem to have any security policy at all, or at least it’s not enforced, and really, would you trust such a company with your financial details? And this is not a rhetorical question either, because you can answer this very question in a new poll I just put up.

Also, the hackers detailed how they got into the Sony system, and it wasn’t some kind of super hack that can only be pulled off by a hacker that would make Neo from the Matrix look like a script kiddie, or a sophisticated social engineering “my voice is my password” style operation involving a blind guy that has great hearing. No, it was just your plain old SQL injection, which for the uninitiated, means injecting SQL commands via poorly written web scripts that don’t check for inputs. To be fair, it is the most common type of web programming security SNAFU, but you would have thought that after the PSN hack, Sony would have performed an extensive security audit on all their web assets, knowing now that they’re a major target for hackers (but they always were, even if they didn’t want to believe it). Sony has since confirmed the attack, and have contacted the FBI.

Alright, that’s it for the week. Thanks for reading, linking, tweeting, facebooking or whatever it is that you young folk do these days. Have a good one.

Blu-ray: The State of Play – May 2011

Friday, May 27th, 2011

It’s been just a bit over a year since the last “Blu-ray: The State of Play” article, and so it’s time to have a look again at how Blu-ray has performed since then, in what are still difficult economic conditions, and in a period where, particularly in the last few months, where there has been a dearth of new, hit releases.

Like the last article, the statistic that this “analysis” focuses on will be the market share figure. This figure tells us what percentage of disc sales belong to the Blu-ray format, and can be used effectively to gouge the growth of Blu-ray, even if general market conditions are not ideal.

The figures come from Home Media Magazine’s published data, which I have been analysing weekly, and because the calculation metric has been modified during the year, some of the graphs may appear different to what was published last year, but the differences are not significant enough to have changed the big picture.

The first set of graphs show Blu-ray market share through the three year period that I have tracked them, with the release milestones pointed out.

Blu-ray Sales Percentage - 4 May 2008 to 30 April 2011 - Click to see larger version

Blu-ray Sales Percentage - 4 May 2008 to 30 April 2011 - Click to see larger version

Just by looking at the graphs, you can see that Blu-ray market share has indeed grown. However, from looking at the number of milestone releases, the last 12 month has produced fewer such titles than the preceding 12 month. For one, there’s no Avatar, which still sets the benchmark when it comes to Blu-ray releases, with only Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 1 coming close this year. But even with fewer milestones, the bar has already been raised by the 2009/2010 performance, where back then, apart from Avatar, there was only one week that managed to break the 18% market share mark, whereas about half of the weeks were above 18% than were below it in 2010/2011. Also interesting was that quite a large percentage of milestone releases were from Disney, some titles such as Beauty and the Beast, and Bambi benefited from being time limited Blu-ray exclusives. And pretty much all of this past year’s milestone releases were combo releases (combo releases, for the benefit of the stats, are counted only as Blu-ray releases).

The next set of graphs show the market share as one continuous graph, as well as the growth rate when comparing one week’s market share with the market share figure of the same week a year ago (so if week 32 in 2010 had a Blu-ray market share figure of 15%, and week 32 in 2011 had a market share figure of 20%, the growth would be: (20 – 15) / 15 => 33%).

Blu-ray Market Share - May 2008 to April 2011

Blu-ray Market Share - May 2008 to April 2011

Blu-ray Market Share Growth - May 2008 to April 2011

Blu-ray Market Share Growth - May 2008 to April 2011

The first graph shows the fairly steady upwards trajectory of market share growth, which a slight dip in growth during the middle of 2010, but picking up again towards the end. The second graph shows this more clearly, and shows growth slowing down and picking up again (but seasonal factors probably account for this). But you cannot escape the fact that three years ago, Blu-ray market share was at 5%, and it is now above 20%.

The last graph below shows a comparison of weekly market share figures with the same figure from a year ago, with 2 year’s worth of comparisons based on 3 years of data.

Blu-ray Sales Percentage: 2008/10 versus 2009/11 Comparison (May to April)

Blu-ray Sales Percentage: 2008/10 versus 2009/11 Comparison (May to April)

Unlike the same comparison I did last year, there were a few weeks in the last 12 month in which the week’s Blu-ray market share actually shrank compared to a year ago. This is largely to do with the timing of new releases, but overall, most weeks showed growth.

While we’re not specifically looking at revenue figures, which are much more volatile as it largely depends on the box office of new releases, we can still take a look at the first part of 2011, and how it compared to the same period in 2010. Including the period last year where Avatar was released, Blu-ray revenue averaged $29.21m. For the same period this year, it’s $32.54m. Not quite that impressive, but considering the overall drop in disc revenue and the poorer box office of the new releases this year compared to the last, Blu-ray is not only holding up, it’s growing (market share for the same period was 20.26% on average, compared to 14.89% a year ago). Highlighting the volatility of using revenue figures, percentage growth in this period ranged from 205% in one week, to a decline of 29.41% in the week immediately after … again, confirming that using market share figures yield a more consistent comparison.

So in summary, Blu-ray is still growing, albeit at a slower pace than previously, and raw revenue has not increased significantly, although that’s largely due to the calibre of new releases.

Weekly News Roundup (8 May 2011)

Sunday, May 8th, 2011

Hello everyone. Wow, what a week, right? It’s one of those moments where you remember exactly where you were when the news broke, which you will turn into a story to bore your children and grandchildren with in the future. And it’s impact, real or just emotional, is still being debated, but for me, it was very much a “WTF” moment. I am of course talking about “May the 4th be with you” Star Wars Blu-ray “event”, that took place, surprisingly, on May the 4th. Why, what else do you think I would talk about on *this* blog?

About that other thing, a mission that countless future Call of Duty games will try to replicate, I do have a few things I want to say about it, mainly about the reactions to it, from all sides, but I think that’s best left for my other blog. Except I don’t have another blog. Oh well.

And sorry about last week’s “May Day” “joke”, it seems it didn’t go down too well with some of our capitalist readers judging by the unusually high amount of  “un-subscribe me, you commie a**hole” requests.

CopyrightSo let’s start with copyright news, my fellow freedom loving capitalists. I ended last week’s copyright section with a story about US pressuring Canadia to do the “right thing” in regards to copyright reform. That was from Wikileaks, and more leaks have shown the same kind of pressure being applied to countries all over the world, as I had suspected.

NZ Map US Flag

The US is trying to write New Zealand's copyright laws

But who would have thought that little New Zealand, you know the country where Frodo comes from, would be the target of serious US pressure. Seriously, New Zealand? What, are the sheep now downloading pirated songs too? (Sorry Kiwis, it had to be done!) In any case, it appears the US was even willing to pay for NZ’s copyright crackdown, a program created and run by private companies with links back to US companies. It wasn’t a lot of money, but it’s the idea that the US government is paying for something like this that doesn’t sit right with me. Is there nothing else the US needs to spend money on, other than helping the billion dollar entertainment companies solve a problem that may not even be solvable (or a problem) – and then do it all the way on the other side of the world? And why the need to exert pressure on other countries? When did copyright reform, reforms that really only help out one industry (and usually at the expense of another),  become a foreign policy thing? Is it right that the US government should be abusing its power and damaging foreign relations in services of the RIAA and MPAA. But it’s not really that surprising though, because we’ve seen what the US is capable and willing to do for the RIAA and MPAA masters, during the ACTA negotiations, and it was our luck that during those negotiations other countries stood firm to US pressure.

Then there was the US offering help to draft NZ’s copyright laws, offering them advice such as “don’t have fair use laws”, the very laws that exists in the US, and other things that would not fly back home, but might just work elsewhere. It’s through these leaks that you get to see how things would be done in the US if the likes of the ACLU and EFF didn’t speak out for us. Might as well just turn the RIAA and MPAA into governmental agencies, with full police *and* judicial powers, and get it over with. Luckily, opposition still exists. Whether it’s just people like you and me ranting into the void of cyberspace, or groups like Anonymous who do things, um, slightly differently. And there are also Internet companies like Mozilla, who don’t like where things are headed and are willing to make a stand. Regular readers will know about the Homeland Security ICE domain seizures, but seizing the domain name is different to seizing the websites, because the websites can still pop up under a different domain name. So to make it easier to find alternative websites for seized domains, a Firefox add-on was released called MafiaaFire Redirector, which automatically takes people to the right website whenever they try to visit a seized domain.

Mozilla Logo

Mozilla is standing firm against ICE pressure to have the MafiaaFire Redirector add-on removed

Obviously, a simple add-on like this makes the US immigration and Customs Enforcement’s (ICE’s) “Operation In Our Sites” completely redundant, as people can and still visit the websites that have had their domains seized, and as long as the add-on is updated, ICE can seize all the domains it wants and people can still visit like nothing has happened. And so after millions of dollars of tax payer money wasted, ICE did the next best thing and went after MafiaaFire Redirector, threatening Mozilla to remove the add-on from the Firefox add-on website. What they didn’t expect was Mozilla to refuse the request. Mozilla business and legal affairs guy Harvey Anderson explained the whole thing on his blog, and basically Mozilla refused to be scared into complying with an ICE demand that didn’t come with any legal authorisation at all, nothing to prove that MafiaaFire Redirector was even illegal. And is MafiaaFire Redirector really illegal? All it does is to redirect website requests from one place to another. In effect, ICE has moved on from not allowing these websites to provide content that may be illegal, it’s also saying that people shouldn’t be allowed to visit these websites. It’s one thing to say that a website offering pirated downloads is breaking the law, but to then jump to the conclusion that even people visiting the website should be considered law breakers, and that anyone making it easier for people to get to these sites is also breaking the law. But this is the base argument for censorship and net filters, because I can argue that I can visit The Pirate Bay all day long without breaking a single law by making the decision not to download anything illegal, but the government argues that they can’t trust people like you and me to make this decision. So they have to make it for us, for our own good, to protect us from ourselves, and to protect companies like Sony and Fox from us.

As for the next story, I still can’t decide what it’s all about. CNET has been sued for providing the download for LimeWire. On the surface, this might seem your usual copyright lawsuit. But the people who are behind the lawsuit are the same people behind FilmOn, which itself was sued for copyright abuse by, which I’m sure it was just a coincidence, the parent company of CNET (amongst others). And so it’s hard to know what to make of this. It could be just a “revenge” lawsuit, to get back at CNET’s parent company CBS (whose parent company is Viacom, who is suing YouTube). Or it could be trying to prove a very good point that, the very companies that are suing left and right for copyright are in fact themselves profiting from copyright abuse, in this case, distributing (and promoting, according to the plaintiffs) LimeWire. Or perhaps Alki David, the man behind the lawsuit (and FilmOn), really does think that hosting P2P software is enough when it comes to copyright abuse, something that I don’t think will be easy to argue in court. It’s the same argument as I made above, because I can use The Pirate Bay or P2P tools, but I can also control my actions so that I don’t break any laws, and so it’s not visiting the website or downloading the software that’s illegal, it’s what you do after.

High Definition

So I said that Blu-ray managed to break a few records recently. It appears I was wrong, but to quote Han Solo, “it’s not my fault”.

What happened was that thanks to Tangled, Tron: Legacy and Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part 1, it appeared that Blu-ray broke through the 25%, 26% and 27% market share barriers for the first time ever. But then when HMM revised last year’s figures for the week in which Avatar was released, it turns out Avatar was and still is the record breaker, as the 27% barrier was already breached a year ago. And to me, this makes sense. As big as Tron: Legacy and HPDH Pt.1 were, they were  no Avatar. Not at the box office, nor as a must-have Blu-ray title. But whenever the record was broken, it was broken, and Blu-ray is quickly becoming a third of all disc sales, and it might not be too long before it overtakes DVDs as the dominant format.

But even as Blu-ray is breaking all the records (or not), DVDs are struggling. Spending on discs is down a massive 10% for Q1 2011, compared to the same quarter in 2010. Analysts are blaming on the poor box office performance of the released titles, which is fair enough. But while Blu-ray has grown, it only grew 10%. Now box office of new releases is also the reason for the smaller growth figure, but I would have though that a new format like Blu-ray, growth is more cumulative, with older titles continue to sell well way beyond the original release date as people who are new to Blu-ray update their collections (which is why you still see older titles pop in the top 10 from time to time. For example, I just purchased Forrest Gump on Blu-ray recently, and I doubt anybody will be still buying this movie on DVD these days.

I will also to look to do a Blu-ray sales review sometime soon, since the 3rd year anniversary of the first Blu-ray revenue analysis has just been reached.

Star Wars Blu-ray Cover

Don't get me wrong, I'm excited about Star Wars on Blu-ray, but the "May 4th" event was a real let down

Then came May 4th, Star Wars Day as it is known because of the play on words (“May the 4th Be With You” geddit?). And so the clever marketing people, assuming for a second that this is not an oxymoron, at Fox and Lucasfilms decided this would be the perfect even to do something special, especially with the Star Wars Blu-ray box set coming in September. So they set up a mini-site, put a counter on it that counts down to May 4th, and got the fans excited. But when the timer counted down to zero, and the website crashed, and then when it did come back on, what was provided was, and still is, a bit of a mystery. So basically, Fox/Lucasfilms wanted people to artificially create social media buzz (yes, because this always works), to “unlock the website”, whatever that means, and when it was all unlocked, it was nothing more than a promo for the Blu-ray set, which has been on sale at Amazon since January. The only useful bit of information was probably the full feature list of the sets, but you know, that’s still promo material, material used to sell something. And this is not how you use social media. I mean, if they had provided something cool, like a free iPhone/Android app, or an exclusive video of one of the new extra features from the boxset, or something that actually befits Star Wars Day, other than very cynical marketing exercise, then perhaps it would have worked better. Or even if this thing was done before the boxset was announced in January, and put on pre-order back then, then it would have been a real surprise and I think that would have been cool, but the marketing people had to put the set out for sale some nine month before it’s actually available, to squeeze in as many sales as possible. And to top it off, the details of the boxset was put into what has to be the world’s slowest scrolling Flash enabled pop-up, making it a chore just to check out what in the boxset that I had already pre-ordered since January (for everyone’s sanity, the features list has been uploaded here in plain text). In other words, in my opinion, this whole event can be described using a word that is an anagram of Sith. I mean, how can they ruin Star Wars. Oh.

Gaming

Ah, gaming. So the PSN is still down as I type, with internal testing going on right now, so the public re-launch should not be too far away. I’ve lost track of the number of days the PSN has been down, but I’m not a huge PS3 gamer (or gamer of any system these days, due to lack of available time), so perhaps others will know down to the exact hour, minute and second the network has been down for.

The event of the week, the one that has rehabilitated the phrase “kill site”, taking it back from serial killers and making it a shoe-in for a level name in the next CoD game, has sort of spared Sony a lot of the focus on the PSN disaster. So much that even Stephen Colbert made a mention of the PSN data theft on his show, in the segment where he explains why this is the best time ever to get bad news out, because nobody is paying any attention. Actually, the theft Cobert mentioned was a new one, where an additional 25 million Sony Online Entertainment accounts had been stolen, including thousands of credit card numbers. It seems Sony has finally decided that a security audit would be a good thing to do once in a while, and they’re uncovering all sorts of stuff. Actually, the OBL stuff might actually have actually hurt Sony this week, because I don’t know about you, but the first thing I did after hearing the news (and after I’ve completed all of the day’s work, of course), was to fire up Modern Warfare 2 and replay the Loose Ends mission (the Makarov takedown mission). If I was into online gaming, which I’m not, then I would have gone online to try and recreate what the Navy Seals did in real life, and I bet a lot of other people tried to do the same, but wait, the PSN was down. Oh well.

And so would some have jumped ship over to the Xbox 360? Perhaps, and if enough people do it, then this could really hurt Sony in the long run. Online gaming is all about swarming to the crowd, about getting on the system that your friends are already on, and if just a few of them switch to the Xbox Live, then others may have to follow. And especially with the perception that Xbox Live is already a superior service, this generation of console gaming may just be won, or lost, on online multiplayer. Along with analysts who feel the same, that the PS3, and all Sony hardware, will suffer as a result of this breach of trust, the news also broke that hackers have managed to re-enable OtherOS support for the PS3 via hacked firmware. So the total effect of Sony removing OtherOS, for security or financial reasons, was that the PS3 got hacked, PSN got hacked, data of 100 million accounts get stolen and OtherOS is back anyway. Oh well.

I should probably say something about this whole f***ed up saga, but I think I shall leave it until next week, since I’m already over my word limit, plus let’s see what goodies Sony gives us as compensation before we begin the moaning process.

In other gaming news, the Wii saw an official price drop, and for the first time ever, Wii Sports is no longer part of the console bundle. Nintendo Prez also says he’s not worried about Kinect, because it doesn’t have any hit games and stuff. I’d be interested to see what the Wii 2 can do before expressing my opinion on Kinect vs Wii.

Alright, that’s that for this week. Have a good one.

Weekly News Roundup (24 April 2011)

Sunday, April 24th, 2011

No luck with waiting for leaks of NPD data, so I can continue with the NPD analysis, so it looks like that’s the end of that feature, which has been going on for more than two years already. Instead, I think what I will do is to combine the feature with the WNR, and just post whatever stats I can find in the gaming section below, starting with this issue. It appears the analysts that usually leak data has been warned, legally, not to do so by the NPD, who themselves are probably under pressure from certain gaming companies, which shall remain unnamed, that are often too ashamed of their sales results and don’t want the negative publicity.

Not too many interesting news stories this week, thanks to Easter I suppose, so let’s get started.

CopyrightIn copyright news, critics of the DMCA and harsher copyright laws have often warned that they can be used to prevent freedom of speech, and this week, we have a story that seems to perfectly illustrate the dangers of giving too much power to copyright holders.

Doctored Reviews

Doctored Reviews: A new website to help fight the practice of using the DMCA to remove bad doctor reviews

Apparently, there’s a company going around removing bad reviews of doctors written by their patients. The company, Medical Justice, provide the service to doctors that are concerned about their reputations being tarnished online, whether justly or unjustly. Doctors can force patients to sign an agreement prior to receiving medical care, and this agreement actually hands over copyright of the patient’s reviews over to Medical Justice, allowing the DMCA to be later used to remove bad reviews. Obviously, this is quite an underhanded practice, and it’s probably a good thing that certain websites now maintain a list of doctors that use the service of Medical Justice, as you can just refer to that list, assume these are all bad doctors, and *avoid* them. And many doctor review sites now ignore DMCA take-down requests of bad reviews, preferring to take this matter to court if necessary, and a couple of UCLA law professors have even set up a new website, Doctored Reviews, with the aim of publishing bad reviews of doctors that Medical Justice wants removed, probably hoping the matter goes to court. This is really only the latest example of copyright laws being abused this way, and if governments around the world continue to pander to the copyright lobby, then there will be more and more such cases in the future. Imagine buying a PC game, you agree to the EULA as you would normally do, except in the 200 page document you just agreed to, there’s a provision saying you hand over all online reviews of this game to the publisher, and this means they can use the DMCA to silence anyone who says a bad thing about the game. Nobody should be able to take away your rights so easily, which in my opinion, is a form of copyright infringement as well. And nobody should be able to use the DMCA or other copyright laws to settle non copyright related issues. But if governments are still intent on handing over *your* rights  over to corporations, then there’s not much we can do.

Anonymous

Anonymous takes on New Zeland, as the island nation passes new harsh copyright laws

The latest country to do is New Zealand, having rushed through legislation without much debate (seems to be a trend these days in relation to copyright laws, from the rushed Digital Economy Act in the UK, to the secretive ACTA discussions) to please the copyright lobby, lobbies that mostly represent non New Zealand interests. The latest story is actually about Anonymous’ plans to attack NZ government websites, but the bigger story is about the new copyright laws and how unbalance they can be. For example, the laws make owners of connections responsible for copyright infringement, something the entertainment industry has been pushing for. You see, it’s hard, if not impossible, to go after the person that actually committed the “crime”, because you would actually needs things like evidence. It’s like if a car was stolen to rob a bank, it’s would be far too hard to actually catch the people that stole the car and robbed the bank, so the police can make it easy on themselves by arresting the owner of the car. Hyperbole aside, the real implication of these ill thought out changes means the end of public Wi-Fi networks in New Zealand. So no more free Wi-Fi at McDonalds unless the fast food joint wants to accept responsibility for pirated downloads. Innovation and competition, has given away to protectionism of an industry that is trying so hard to avoid innovation and competition.

This is just the latest trend in copyright laws that goes against everything a democratic and lawful society is supposed to stand for. The over-exaggeration of the piracy problem by copyright lobby is directly responsible for these over-exaggerated responses by clueless governments being led down the wrong path by the smell of lobbying cash. And I’m convinced the copyright problem, much like every other problem, cannot be addressed until the root causes can be identified, and this starts with real stats and figures on the cost piracy, not “estimates” of “potential” losses (which mostly assume the cost of piracy equals the number of pirated items times the full retail cost of said item). Once we have a real understanding of the scale of the problem, we might then decide that enforcement in all but the most extreme copyright cases might not be in the public interest at all, due to the financial cost of it all. But if there is a substantial problem related to piracy, then no matter how serious the problem is, one should not have to sacrifice the basic tenets of society just to make the problem go away – the ends do not justify the means, especially when the “ends” is not even certain. Innocent until *proven* guilty, with the copyright holders responsible for having to proof that copyright infringement has occurred, and also to proof the extent of actual monetary damage. And they should have to do it in a court, with full rights of appeal for the alleged offender. We’re often told that piracy is just like stealing a car, but the problem is that car thieves actually have more rights than a downloader when it comes to copyright laws of countries like the UK and France, and now New Zealand. With a car theft, first of all, there is conclusive proof of material loss or damage, and then the police have to proof, beyond a reasonable doubt, who actually stole the car, arrest them, and then a judge decides the verdict, with the offender given full rights to argue his or her case, and then to appeal if needed. With downloads, the “victim” is the judge, the jury, and in some cases, the executioner (or at least they organize the execution, by forcing ISPs to act), and all before actual damages have even been proved. The argument is that proofing all of this is too hard, too time consuming, but when is taking shortcuts when justice is concerned ever the right thing to do? Anyone who wants to subvert justice this way should be considered an enemy of the state, an enemy of the people, but it’s the opposite right now, and so it’s no wonder you’ve got movements like Anonymous taking action against what they, and many of us, perceive to be an attack on our freedoms.

High Definition

The week ending 2nd April proved to be a milestone of sorts for Blu-ray, except it turns out the week after was even more, um, “milestonie”. Blu-ray finally broke through the 24% market share record, and the week after, it broke through the 25% as well (I still need to post up the analysis for that week, when it’s up, it will be on this page).

Unfortunately, combined revenue, of both DVD and Blu-ray sales, is actually quite disappointing. This is mainly because DVD sales continue to fall, quite dramatically at times, and the increase in Blu-ray sales haven’t really been enough to even slightly offset losses. It’s no good having $20 million increases in Blu-ray sales, when DVD losses are $100 million or more. The economy probably has a lot to do with it, and perhaps it just shows people are buying a smaller number of better and more expensive products (eg. Blu-ray), but buying less overall. Perhaps they’re turning to piracy, since you can only buy what you can afford. Maybe they’ve turned to digital distribution, Netflix and the like, or cheaper rentals via Redbox. Or maybe they’ve just stopped watching. It’s not as if there’s a dearth of free, legal, entertainment these days – just the free apps on smartphones can occupy someone for ages.

Which is why, as reported by one of our new news contributors, the Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 1 Blu-ray and DVD situation is so frustrating and unhelpful in the current climate. Not only are there 5 editions of the same movie across the two formats, two of the editions are exclusive to two different stores. And while Warner Bros may have maximized their revenue potential by signing lucrative exclusivity deals, it’s the consumer that ends up having less choice in terms of where to purchase, and more confusion as to which version to buy. I’ve always respected WB for being pioneers in adopting new video formats, they were one of the very few to support VCD, and a major backer behind HD DVD before they decided to abandon the format, and they also abandoned region coding for Blu-ray. But they botched the Lord of the Rings theatrical release, want to make us sextuple dip the LOTR franchise, and will probably do something similar with the HP franchise as well. But it’s their right, and it’s our right to not get sucked in and do more research before parting with our cash, that is if we decide to part with it at all.

Gaming

And finally in gaming, the story that everyone is talking about this week has to be the downing of the PlayStation network, which appears to be still down as I write. Of course, everyone pointed the finger at Anonymous, but group has said that they didn’t do it, or at least it wasn’t an official “op”.

PSN Down

The PlayStation Network has been down for the last few days, Sony says "external intrusions" are responsible

And with Sony being their usual selves when it comes to being transparent, there’s not a lot of information about just what went wrong, and what is being done to fix the problem. Speculating blindly, I think this is probably more hacking than denial-of-service. It doesn’t look like a DDoS, the traditional attack method of Anyonmous, because first of all, those are quite easy to stop, certainly would not take two or more days, and it would also mean completely dis-connectivity, but there are reports that people’s queued downloads are still downloading fine. So it looks like hacking, probably a security exploit that someone took advantage of and managed to get deep into the PSN infrastructure. The subsequent fixes to ensure whatever exploit is patched is probably what’s taking so long, so it looks like quite a serious, structural problem.

Now, you can blame the hackers, but just like with the PS3 hack, nobody could have done a thing to it if the exploit was not there in the first place, and exploit and weakness present due to programming errors on Sony’s part. Same with the PSN. The hackers may have tore your house down, but they wouldn’t have been able to so if it wasn’t made of straw, if you know what I mean. So Sony are ultimately responsible, and that’s the way it should be. However, since PSN is mostly a free service, nobody can complain really. Only those that paid for the PSN Plus should demand some kind of compensation, as would Xbox Live Gold users if XBL Gold ever went down for such a long time.

Anyway, it’s the last thing Sony needs, having come last again in last month’s US console sales. I’m going to assume this because otherwise Sony would have touted the fact that they beat the Wii, which sold just above 290,000 units (down 47% compared to March 2010) according to Nintendo. Microsoft did release the sales figures, mainly because they’re not ashamed of having come last I suppose, and with 433,000 (up 28% compared to March 2010), the Xbox 360 was once again the best selling home based console for March 2011, in the US. Only Sony knows just how bad the PS3 results were, although they did say that the PlayStation platform overall sales rose “double digits” compared to a year ago. This could mean anything though, especially with the PSP price drop, and again, I point to Sony not making a big deal of outselling the poor performing Wii as evidence of the PS3’s poor performance in March. And if that’s the case, the the PS3 re-starts its recent trend of sales declines compared to the same month last year, having had a pause in February. And recent events won’t have helped PS3 sales in April, I bet, but we may never find out.

So that’s it for the week, and for this very much abridged version of the monthly NPD analysis. See you next week.