Archive for the ‘Xbox 360, Xbox One’ Category

Game Consoles – NPD Sales Figures – 2009 Year in Review

Thursday, January 21st, 2010

2009 is now over, and we now have enough stats to go back and review the entire year, with focus on the PS3, Xbox 360 and the Nintendo Wii. The stats are from NPD, and are for the US market.

The total hardware sales figures for 2009 are as follows:

  • DS: 11,185,400 – up 12.4% (from 2008)
  • Wii: 9,594,000 – down 5.7%
  • Xbox 360: 4,770,700 – up 0.8%
  • PS3: 4,334,500 – up 22.3%
  • PSP: 2,495,900 – down 34.8%
  • PS2: 1,799,900 – down 28.1%

This is a breakdown of these numbers, for the Xbox 360, PS3 and Wii:

NPD 2009: Console hardware sales breakdown

NPD 2009: Console hardware sales breakdown

If you compare the above graph with the equivalent one for 2008, you can see that overall, the situation is still fairly similar. The Wii domination is still present, although it has lost a small chunk of that pie to the PS3 mostly (the Wii had 55% of the three way pie in 2008, compared to 51% in 2009). The Xbox 360’s market share remains quite similar, with the green piece of pie above representing around 25.5% of the market (in 2008, it was 25.6%). So the quick conclusion is that the PS3 is the winner in terms of growth in 2009, with the Xbox 360 just about pulling even, and the Wii losing out. Looking at the total hardware sales numbers above the graph, this is pretty evident, with Wii sales down nearly 6% for the year. Wii sales has been disappointing for much of 2009, even when PS3 sales were also disappointing at the beginning of the year. It was during this time that Xbox 360 sales were strong, but there was a weak period in the middle for the Microsoft console. The PS3 finished the year strongly, and the Wii even stronger. So while the graph seems to show the PS3 taking away sales from the, the actual series of events was more complicated.

Of course, if there is one event which really defined the year for the PS3 then it came in September when the PS3 Slim was released. More importantly, it was also this time that Sony decided to cut prices for the PS3, to bring it more in line with that of the other two home based consoles. To demonstrate this turning point graphically, it is best to compare sales of the PS3 to the Xbox 360 both before and after the official introduction of the Slim:

NPD 2009: Hardware Sales, Before PS3 Slim/Price Cut

NPD 2009: Hardware Sales, Before PS3 Slim/Price Cut

NPD 2009: Hardware Sales, After PS3 Slim/Price Cut

NPD 2009: Hardware Sales, After PS3 Slim/Price Cut

I think the graphs speak for themselves. Note that it again would inaccurate to say that PS3 took sales away from the Xbox 360, and although there is some truth in that, it isn’t the whole picture. The above graphs are almost exactly the opposite of what happened in 2008, when the PS3 had a good lead over the Xbox 360, but the subsequent price cuts helped the Microsoft console fight back in style. The PS3 “fightback” was less stylish than what happened last year, but the price cut was also more moderate, and the Xbox 360 had Modern Warfare 2 to help with sales.

Now let’s look at game sales. Looking only at the monthly number one titles, here they are:

NPD 2009: Monthly Number One's

NPD 2009: Monthly Number One's

NPD 2009: Monthly Number One's

NPD 2009: Monthly Number One's

Microsoft’s dominance continues on from last year (60.96% back then versus 60.14% in 2009), but the Wii has managed to grab a few more spots, with the a single title that won best selling game of the month for the PS3. Only looking at the monthly number one’s is always a bit misleading, because monthly winners do not always equal yearly winners, and several of the listed titles are not in the yearly top 10. But monthly number ones are important, in that it provides hype and recognition for the console and games that win it. Developers will develop for the console that can allow them to top the monthly and yearly charts. But this is also where we see the big problem with the Wii, that despite having many monthly number one’s, all of them are first party Nintendo developed games. Third party games on the Wii are doing quite poorly and many developers have already signaled their intention to reduce resources towards Wii game productions, which is not good news in the long term for Nintendo. So while Nintendo is making the big bucks, they need to share or end up with a console with a very limited range of in house produced games.

Taking the above approach and extending it to the top 10 games every month, we have the following breakdown in terms of game units sold:

  • Wii: 22,600,500 (43.65%, up 523,400 from 2008)
  • Xbox 360: 20,425,300 (39.44%, up 1,500,700)
  • PS3: 8,756,100 (16.91%, up 2,388,900)
NPD 2009: Monthly Top 10

NPD 2009: Monthly Top 10

On the surface, this seems to indicate tremendous growth for software sales in 2009, but software revenue is down nearly 10% compared to the year before. The biggest games of 2009 were bigger than the biggest games of 2008, but everything else was down. But you will also see the Wii domination here, and the software growth for the PS3 as more and more consoles get into people’s homes.

The yearly top 10 will give us an even better picture of where things are, although at the current time of writing, I do not have actual figures for sales, just the ranking, which you can see in the table below:

NPD 2009: Yearly Top 10

NPD 2009: Yearly Top 10

If and when I get concrete stats, I will update this article with them and the related graphs, but even without them you can see the clear Nintendo domination in games. While the Xbox 360 had the top title in Modern Warfare 2 (whereas last year’s top 4 were all Wii titles), it appears that the Wii domination has been extended. The PS3 still has the solitary single game in the top 10. But again, the problem of poor third party games on the Wii is clearly evident, 6 Wii titles and 1 DS title in the top 10 and not a single third party game. Meanwhile, the top Xbox 360 game and the only PS3 game were all third party titles. It’s clear why third party publishers like Activision or EA likes the PS3 and Xbox 360, and not so much the Wii when it comes to counting profits. It is an area that Nintendo needs to work on, perhaps helping third party developers to get more out of the Wii and throw in some more promotion and product bundling.

What the stats that I posted monthly, and what is shown above doesn’t tell you is overall revenue. Gamasutra has these stats here and despite the PS3, Sony is actually the biggest loser of 2009, in terms of revenue. This is because despite positive PS3 growth, PS2 and PSP sales are down 28 and 34% in number of units sold and probably greater in terms of revenue due to price cuts. Sony lost more than a billion dollars worth of revenue between 2008 and 2009, and the market share of the PlayStation brand shrank from 34% in 2007 to 26% in 2009. Nintendo is the big winner, and now controls 50% of the market in terms of revenue, with the Xbox 360 being a small winner compared to 2008, but still losing market share compared to 2007. While Sony may be confident that PS3 growth will eventually replace lost PS2 sales, the PSP is less positive and has not been able to compete with the DS and DSi for sometime now, with the DS/DSi recording the second best set of growth numbers in 2009 . For Microsoft, having only a single home based console, there’s less room to maneuverer and they will hope that Project Natal will be able to grab back some of the market share from the Wii’s casual gaming audience.

So that was the year that was. The economy, PS3 price cuts, and a few selected high profile games (Modern Warfare 2 comes to mind) were the major factors influencing the year. While sales are down compared to 2008, which was a record year like never before, the industry can still be relatively positive and 2009 still represents the best year apart from 2008.

Weekly News Roundup (17 January 2010)

Sunday, January 17th, 2010

December 2009 was a monster month for the Wii, having otherwise suffered a pretty bad 2009 (relatively speaking, of course). You can read all about this in the December 2009 NPD US video games analysis post. The PS3 has been averaging close to a 90% year-on-year increase in sales based on the last few monthly figures, although it’s still involved in a close fight with the Xbox 360. Don’t know if this says more about the popularity of the Slim/price cut, or about how poorly the PS3 was doing this time last year. Probably a bit of both.

In any case, all of this is pretty trivial compared to what’s happened in Haiti during the last week. This is a good page set up by Google that gathers all the information you will need, whether it’s to read more about the crisis, to donate or try to communicate with people you know in Haiti.

Copyright

Starting with the copyright news, Real Networks has lost an anti-trust counter-suit against the MPAA. As you may know, the MPAA sued Real Networks’ RealDVD product, a software that creates a heavily copy protected copy of a DVD that can be played without the original disc. The MPAA won a successful injunction against the sale of Real DVD, but Real Networks hit back with an anti-trust lawsuit claiming the MPAA studios, through DVD copy protection licensing, is operating a cartel and prevents products like RealDVD from existing legally.

RealDVD

RealDVD is another step closer to permanent death, if it hasn't gotten there already

It was always a shot in the dark, so it was no surprise that it missed the mark. The judge explained that no damages could be found from the MPAA’s actions, and that the only damage was being done by RealDVD. Not what Real Networks wanted, and their CEO stepped down, probably not as a result of the court’s decision, but perhaps also not entirely unrelated. So was the judge right in dismissing the case? First of all, a cartel is defined as “a combination of independent business organizations formed to regulate production, pricing, and marketing of goods by the members”. We know that DVD copy protection is so ineffective, that a junior computer science student probably has the ability to break the code in less time than it takes to make a sandwich. And so from a technical point of view, DVD copy protection is useless. But the studios still persist with it, and charges licensing fees all over the place. For something that they know doesn’t work. So instead of acting as a copying deterrent, it’s basically there only for licensing, and through licensing agreements, to prevent people and companies from doing things to the DVD that the studios don’t agree with. And it was with the licensing agreements that they attempt to kill innovative products like RealDVD and Kaleidescape, products that may affect the production, pricing, and marketing of DVDs, and also the studios’ own products like Digital Copy and Managed Copy. And it wouldn’t be like the first time that DRM is used in an anti-competitive way, and even Apple has gotten into trouble in Europe over this very issue. You get the feeling that governments and courts really do not yet understand the full implications of DRM, and its anti-competitive nature when coupled with something like the DMCA, as otherwise the DMCA would never have been passed or there would be provisions in there to force interoperability and to prevent anti-competitive behaviour.

OiNK

OiNK's founder is found not guilty. Nobody saw that coming, honestly.

But it seems not all courts, and juries, can be intimidated by the copyright holders’ usually well (and expensively) prepared cases. Alan Ellis, the founder of the music sharing service OiNK, has been found not guilty by a UK court, despite the website being shut down in 2007. The “Google” defence was used, in which Ellis’s defence claimed that OiNK operated in the same way as Google, by not actually hosting infringing content, but by simply organising the available information. Of course, this is true of all BitTorrent download websites as well, and the same defence did not work for The Pirate Bay. But for Alan Ellis, this is a major victory, and a permanent one, since there’s apparently no more avenue of appeal for the copyright holders, and so the decision will be final. Whether this sets a precedent that will be referred to in future cases, particularly ones in the UK, only time will tell.

With courts being sometimes unreliable, the RIAA wants the FCC to act and make ISPs copyright cops in the US. ISPs disagree, as do digital rights groups, consumer groups, and some business groups. While these groups have been making the right arguments, I’m still somewhat surprised that more has not been made of the implications of allowing private companies such as ISPs to spy on user’s activities and pass on user information onto other private companies for financial benefit. And even if you take away the privacy arguments, there’s still the issue of whether ISPs have the power or the legal knowledge to determine just exactly what is infringement. I know it is common sense in most cases, but we do have police and courts for reason, and that is to prevent private justice being dished out without regulation to guide the rulings and prevent abuse. If the RIAA is given the power to order ISPs to become copyright cops, do you trust them (or the ISPs, who will be fearing lawsuits from the RIAA if they do not comply) to not abuse this power, which effectively can cut off their most important form of communication, which can lead to serious consequences such as the loss of a job or a business.

High Definition

In HD news, more information is slowly trickling out in regards to 3D TV and Blu-ray. To summarise the whole situation, I would say that an active shutter LCD glasses will be used, which will require a display with 120Hz refresh. Now, most TVs have that but what they don’t have, at the very least, is the ability to actually accept a 120Hz signal (most accepts the 60Hz as outputted by Blu-ray players, and then duplicate frames to get to display it as 120Hz). This, plus signal processing requirements and certain display issues, will mean that you will definitely need a new TV, unless it is one of the very few that is stated to be 3D ready. For similar reasons, you will also need 3D ready Blu-ray players, although as mentioned here before, the PS3 should be fine with a firmware update (and this may be true of a few other players as well).

3D Ready Logo Mock Up

A mock up of what the "3D Ready" logo may look like

I suspect as we get closer to the 3D rollout, terms like “3D Ready” will have more meaning, and perhaps some kind of certification and labeling program will be introduced to avoid consumer confusion. So the question many of you may have, and it’s one that I’ve been asking myself as well, is that should you buy a TV now or wait until the 3D ready sets are out. For those in the US, you won’t have to wait long, and if you like plasma TVs, then the new Panasonic 3D line up will be the one you need. The cost of adding 3D compliance to TV sets is probably not all that high, and so I would expect most new models to be 3D ready by the end of the year or sooner. But the real question is do you want or need 3D? That’s a question only you can answer, but my feeling at the moment is that 3D is a gimmick, but one that I would definitely want to experiment with.  So need? No. Want? Maybe. So with that said, if I find a new TV (and I need one) for a good price and I’m in a hurry to buy, then I’ll probably buy it even if it doesn’t have 3D. But I will at least wait until several 3D models are available and then see what the price situation is like, and if there’s no premium on the 3D models (and I don’t expect there to be), then I’ll get one (and then probably spend less than 1% of the time using the TV in 3D mode). If the TV manufacturers do charge a large premium on the 3D models, then I’ll consider that a rip off and buy one of the outdated 2D models on the  cheap.

Speaking of rip offs, how would you like paying $3,500 for a Blu-ray player that only costs $500 (or less). The $3,500 Lexicon BD-30, marketed as a THX certified Blu-ray player, is apparently nothing more than an $500 Oppo BDP-83 with a new outer shell and minor modifications (like a new splash screen when the player loads). The Oppo is not THX certified, but somehow the Lexicon, with practically identical hardware, gets it, which suggest THX certification is little more than handing over some cash to THX, at least in this case. So if you want a THX certified Blu-ray player, without the actual THX logo on the player itself, then I have to throw yet another recommendation towards the Oppo BDP-83.

If standalones are not your cup of tea, and HTPCs with Blu-ray playback are too bulky and noisy for your needs, then Asus may have just want you need. It was only a matter of time before Nvidia Ion enabled Nettops come bundled with a Blu-ray drive and allow you to play Blu-ray movies in these small, quiet systems, and the Asus Eee Box may be the first of many that can do this. They would make ideal home theater PCs, due to the small space, low heat and noise and the usually stylish design of the systems.

Gaming

And finally in gaming, the NPD analysis sort of covers this week’s news items. The reactions from the companies involved are, as always, positive. Nintendo will be happy no doubt having dominated everything in December, having lost a lot during the rest of 2009. Sony is happy because the PS3 is finally selling in numbers that the successor of the PS2 should be selling at. And Microsoft is happy because they managed to get themselves a good lead over the PS3, and will look forward to holding on before Project Natal arrives, and with all the hype the add-on is getting, there’s a good chance that Microsoft will get a bit of the “Wii-effect” when it comes to selling Natal to non traditional gamers.

The other piece of news is that the PS3 3.15 firmware is now a mandatory install, unlike previous firmware updates that have always been optional. This is bad news for those that have been skipping firmware updates fearing that each update increases the risk of their console suffering the dreaded “no disc reading” problem, or the infamous Yellow Light of Death. While I was a victim of a the “no disc reading” problem after a firmware update, I was recently forced to install 3.15 as well, not because it was mandatory, but because I had to if I wanted to play new Blu-ray movies that required a AACS key update. So far, the PS3 is acting normally, and I had a good chance of that happening since the firmware troubles I suspect affects much less than 5% of all PS3s. Nobody knows just how many PS3s are affected of course, and Sony refuses to even acknowledge there is a problem even after being sued over it, and with most PS3s unaffected, fanboys can easily claim everyone who says their PS3 bricked after a firmware update is a liar or just someone who doesn’t know how to use sofisticated [sic] equipment (until it happens to them, of course). What I really should do now is sell my old PS3 and get a new one, which will be easier to sell now that I’ve managed to get the latest firmware loaded on it. You really do have to admire Microsoft’s eventual response to the RRoD problem, even if you can’t exactly admire the design and engineering of the actual console.

Okay, that’s all I have this week. I will be writing a 2009 year in review type of piece for the NPD video game stats, which should be online this week or the next at the latest.

Game Consoles – December 2009 NPD Sales Figure Analysis

Friday, January 15th, 2010

We now have the figures for December, the busiest time of the year traditionally for video game sales. With the economy the way it is, the PS3 Slim and price cut led charge by Sony, and the up to this point fairly disappointing year for Nintendo, all eyes are on the final month of 2009 to see where we are in terms of the industry. The figures are from NPD, a marketing research firm that releases games console sale data every month.

The figures for US sales in December 2009 are below, ranked in order of number of sales (December 2008 figures also shown, including percentage change):

  • Wii: 3,810,000 (Total: 27.1 million; December 2008: 2,150,000 – up 77%)
  • DS: 3,310,000 (Total: 39.4 million; December 2008: 3,040,000 – up 9%)
  • PS3: 1,360,000 (Total: 11.1 million; December 2008: 726,000 – up 87%)
  • Xbox 360: 1,310,000 (Total: 18.6 million; December 2008: 1,440,000 – down 9%)
  • PSP: 654,700 (Total: 16.9 million; December 2008: 1,020,000 – down 36%)
  • PS2: 333,200 (Total: 45.3 million; December 2008: 410,000 – down 19%)
NPD December 2009 Game Console US Sales Figures

NPD December 2009 Game Console US Sales Figures

NPD Game Console Total US Sales Figures (as of December 2009)

NPD Game Console Total US Sales Figures (as of December 2009)

My prediction from last month was:

December hardware sales should be even higher than November’s based on past trend, but with MW 2 still selling in good numbers, it should help the Xbox 360. But I suspect it will be a closely fought race between the Xbox 360 and PS3 for the third place finish, behind the DS and Wii at first and second. Software wise, MW 2 should still be selling well, and should hold top spot, although Wii Fit Plus may make a surprise surge. But in all likelihood, both versions of MW 2 will probably beat New Super Mario Bros. Wii to furnish the top 3 spots. Overall software sales will be down, because it will be hard to beat this month’s figures.

The race between the PS3 and the Xbox 360 was indeed a close one, but one that the PS3 ultimately won, albeit by only a couple of percentage points (the PS3 had 12.62% of the console market, the Xbox 360 had 12.15%). The demand for Blu-ray was obviously higher than the demand for Modern Warfare 2, which did not do as well as I expected, or more precisely, other titles managed to break even more records. And by other titles I mean Wii titles. The Wii is the success story for December 2009, and reversed the trend for the entire 2009 in a single month. It was this hardware led surge by the Wii that helped several Wii titles, the ones that every Wii owner seems to have (and the ones that new owners must buy), that also helped Wii software to surge, taking the top 3 spots comfortably. This is why the second part of my predictions, the software based ones, proved largely to be incorrect, and I, and many others, underestimate the demand for the Wii (yet again, it seems, for another holiday season).

To highlight just how amazing and how against the trend the December Wii numbers are, here are some stats:

  • December 2009 sales of the Wii are 77% higher than that of the same period in 2008, which back then was a record in itself
  • From March 2009 to November 2009, the average growth rate for the Wii was negative 41.2% (in other words, for these nine months, Wii sales were down an average of 41% compared to the same months in 2008)
  • Wii sales for December 2009 was higher than April, May, June, July, August, September, October and November of 2009 combined!

And when you add in the amazing DS numbers, which also recorded year on (record) year growth, it seems Santa managed to bring a big gift for Nintendo, and exactly when they needed it as well.

Of course, the other success story for the second half of 2009 has been the PS3. The price cut and the PS3 slim has revitalized the console when it looked like coming a distant third in the home console wars for this generation. While there’s nothing to suggest the PS3 will dominate like the PS2 of the previous generation, not if Nintendo can do anything about it, but there are signs that it might yet beat the Xbox 360 given enough time. The increasing popularity of Blu-ray, and more importantly, the lower price of the PS3 (which makes it once again able to compete with standalone players, something that it couldn’t do in the first half of 2009), has helped it overcome the Xbox 360’s Modern Warfare 2 led hardware surge. The year on year growth figure of 87% is amazing, but probably more amazing than it actually is, considering how badly the PS3 was selling this time last year (behind the PSP, and half of the Xbox 360). If anything, the PS3 is only starting to sell at the levels that many had expected at this stage of its lifespan, and it had been seriously under performing before the recent changes.

With Nintendo sitting happy at the top, and the PS3 jumping over the Xbox 360, Microsoft might be worried, and they probably are. But that’s only because of the previous successes of the console, making the current numbers, which Microsoft would only have dreamed of at the launch of the console, seem so disappointing. Nobody expected the Xbox 360 to stay ahead of the PS3 for very long after the PS3 launches, not even Microsoft and not after all the RRoD problems. But while monthly sales have only started to lag behind the PS3, it still holds more than a 7 million lead over the PS3 on the console front, and that lead should last for a while yet at the PS3’s current growth rate. And, Microsoft will hope, that when Natal is out at the end of the year, it will give the console enough momentum to see out the rest of this generation, although it will have to ride out 2010 and hope that Sony doesn’t catch up too quickly.

In any case, December 2009 was an excellent month for gaming, the best ever in fact, and managed to easily beat the record breaking December 2008 largely thanks to Nintendo (and with Sony finally doing as well as it’s supposed to). The top 10 game sales also managed to beat the top 10 of December 2008, but 2009 still marks a largely down year compared to 2008. As mentioned previously, the Nintendo Wii surge helped Wii games to dominate the top 10 charts as well. The average new Wii buyer will almost always buy one or all of the following “must-have” titles: Wii Play, Wii Fit (Plus), Mario Kart and the new Wii Sports Resort – and all of these managed to get into the top 10, even if some have been missing from the list for most of 2009 due to lackluster hardware sales. The other consoles don’t really have these kind of must-have games, mainly because that Wii games age much better than their PS3 or Xbox 360 counterparts. Many still say the best title on the Wii is still the bundled Wii Sports, and it’s hard to imagine a game of this age on the Xbox 360 or PS3 that is still played as often. The Xbox 360 version of Modern Warfare 2 fell from the previous month’s record high to something that’s still quite respectable for a month old game, still selling above the PS3 version but by not as much since the PS3 version’s fall was less dramatic. This now means that almost one in three Xbox 360 owners now have a copy of Modern Warfare 2, which is simply amazing (it’s just over 1 in 4 for the PS3, which is still amazing, especially considering that not everybody likes shooters). MW2 was the only PS3 game in the top 10 though, but the Xbox 360 had two more. Assassin’s Creed II sales on the Xbox 360 nearly didn’t drop at all coming into the second month of release, and the semi platform exclusive Left 4 Dead 2 also recorded similar sales figures as last month. Overall, Wii games dominated with 64.6% of the top 10, with the Xbox 360 getting 22.6%, and the PS3 with 8.1%.

Here’s the complete list of the top 10 software sales:

  1. New Super Mario Bros. Wii (Wii, Nintendo) – 2,820,000
  2. Wii Fit Plus (Wii, Nintendo) – 2,410,000
  3. Wii Sports Resort (Wii, Nintendo) – 1,790,000
  4. Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 2 (Xbox 360, Activision) – 1,630,000
  5. Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 2 (PS3, Activision) – 1,120,000
  6. Wii Play w/ Remote (Wii, Nintendo) – 1,010,000
  7. Mario Kart w/ Wheel (Wii, Nintendo) – 936,000
  8. Assassin’s Creed II (Xbox 360, Ubisoft) – 783,100
  9. Left 4 Dead 2 (Xbox 360, EA) – 728,500
  10. Mario & Luigi: Bowser’s Inside Story (DS, Nintendo) – 656,700

January should see huge sales drop across the board, but that’s just a seasonal thing. And as such, it’s very hard to predict the order of things, although I believe the hardware sales ordering will remain the same. On the software front, January will be largely quiet, Mass Effect 2 on the Xbox 360 should do well, and the rest of the top 10 should have a familiar look to December’s. There are some big releases coming in February and March, so consumers can take a breather in January (and save up).

I should say “see you next month” as I usually do, but I will also have a 2009 year in review up in the next week or two, which will go through and summarize the stats for 2009, similar to what I did for 2008 around this time last year. So see you until then.

Update: As promised, the 2009 year in review is now up.

Weekly News Roundup (10 January 2010)

Sunday, January 10th, 2010

Now that’s more like it. A bit more news finally this week. In fact, there’s a lot of news mainly due to the CES 2010 currently happening in Vegas. Most of the news came out of the show, and most of it was about 3D, which was kind of predictable. While everyone was talking up 3D HD, I had to regress from HDMI back to component due to a broken TV, and then suffer the illogical copy protection system that’s present. Hollywood can be so freaking paranoid at times, and even if their fear is justified, they’re still fighting on the wrong front when it comes to online piracy. How is stopping someone from watching upscaled DVDs through component output going to help stop online piracy? I also took the time to update the MeGUI guides for Windows 7, which works quite well after some initial tweaking needed due to 7’s new built in codecs framework.

Copyright

Let’s start with the copyright news. The Pirate of the Week award goes to Sony, who managed to not only leak a “still at the cinemas” movie to the PlayStation store in perfect digital quality, but also managed to make it a free download for those quick enough to grab this very special offer. But at least the file was DRM protected so that it couldn’t have been leaked online, right? Um, not quite, and if you search the regular BitTorrent networks, you’ll find a “PSPRip” version of the film which came from this Sony gift. Or should that really be “SonyRip”?

Armored Movie Poster

Sony like the movie ‘Armored’ so much that it decided to give it away free on the PlayStation Store

I know the MPAA has been talking about wanting to release movies digitally while they’re still showing at the cinemas, something that cinema owners are vehemently against, but what Sony has done here is probably not what the MPAA had intended. Although the MPAA still had time to roll out a new DRM scheme, which basically “pirates” Disney’s Keychest initiative. Basically, it’s a purchase once, view everywhere scheme, and they intend to do this by adding DRM and online authentication to everything. It seems that the lesson the MPAA learned from the RIAA’s failed experiment with DRM was that it failed because interoperability, that is the ability to play the file everywhere, was not ensured. That’s a valid lesson, but online authentication means that if people are away from the Internet, then their entire movie library becomes useless. And I’m sure there will be device manufacturers that do not buy into the MPAA’s DRM licensing scheme, and hence, interoperability will still be an issue. I think the biggest lesson from the RIAA’s DRM fiasco should be that consumers just don’t like DRM, and that in the end, it wasn’t really necessary anyway since DRM free or easily ripped versions of the music (or movie) will still be widely available and ready to be pirated online regardless of how many layers of DRM you put on the music (or movie).

In fact, just this week, the “consumers don’t like DRM” argument was put forward to the courts in relation to the appeal of the Joel Tenenbaum verdict, the student fined $675,000 of downloading 30 songs. The argument is that because DRM limits choice, the only choice then becomes piracy. I’m not sure I agree with this argument, and I certainly don’t think it will hold up in court, because DRM free alternatives were available in the form of CDs, which can then be easily made into digital form legally (not falling foul of the DMCA because CDs are not DRM’d). The other argument that Tenenbaum’s lawyers will use is that the rewarded damages are just too excessive, which is harder to argue against. It wasn’t as shocking at the $1.92m verdict awarded against Jammie Thomas-Rasset for 6 songs less than Tenenbaum, but the RIAA did it to send a message.

Moon Poster

But Sony didn’t like ‘Moon’ at all and refused to support it for an Oscar in order to fight online piracy

While still stinging from the “SonyRip” incident, I guess the suits at Sony HQ decided to balance this kind gift out with something nasty, which came in the form of not supporting their own film, Moon, for an Oscar for which the film’s star Sam Rockwell actually has a chance of winning. The lack of support comes in the form of not releasing screeners to voters, which need to be watermarked to prevent piracy, but Sony doesn’t want to spend the money. Sony says they need the watermarking because the movie is yet to be released in the US, although even the Blu-ray version has been available in the UK since mid November, so there’s hardly a lack of a good source for the pirated version. Another quick check on the regular BitTorrent networks and a DVD rip of Moon is indeed available. The cost of issuing the watermarked screeners would probably be less than the cost of the PR campaign Sony now has to put out to counter criticism of this move from celebrities such as Iron Man Director Jon Favreau and Coraline writer Neil Gaiman. The next step for Sony would be to block the release of a film entirely from all channels, if it’s really that serious about piracy (although it might still get leaked online). Better to destroy the film just after it comes out of post production, than to suffer from piracy, right?

While not doing something as extreme, and for entirely different reasons, but Warner and a few other studios (surprisingly, not including Sony) put pressure on  DVD rental vending machine operator Redbox by refusing to give the right to distribute their movies through this cheaper and potentially revenue hurting new distribution method. Redbox even had to use made up cover art as the studios wouldn’t give permission to use the original artwork, but even the made up art work has come under legal pressure, although Redbox denies any wrongdoing. Warner then attacked Netflix and forced them to delay the rental of their DVDs, although they did offer as a compromise an extended range of movies that will be made available via Netflix’s digital service. All of this is about fighting new delivery methods that are cheaper and more efficient, to protect the dying business model that studios rely on. DVD rental revenue is actually up (cheap stuff sells more, wh0 would have thunk it?), but while the studios were busy fighting online piracy, they forgot that the Internet could also have been used to deliver new services and acts as a new distribution method for their content, and instead passed up the opportunity to the likes of Netflix and Redbox. Just like how the music industry passed up online music selling over to Apple’s iTunes, which is now making huge amounts of money that the music labels should have been making themselves if they had the vision to embrace the Internet, rather than not seeing anything good having come from the Internet at all (to paraphrase Sony Pictures CEO Michael Lynton).

Well if you can’t stop the piracy at the source, then perhaps you can go to the other end. The French government, now the symbolic head of a global crusade against online piracy, plans to put a piracy tax on Google which will be quite a little earner, as well as doing absolutely nothing to stop piracy just like every other initiative.

High Definition

Onto HD, or more accurately, 3D HD news. Let’s just go quickly through just a small selection of 3D related news items, most to have come out of the CES. ESPN is set to launch a 3D channel for sports programming, including the opening game of the FIFA 2010 World Cup.

Sony, Discovery and IMAX are set to do the same, but we’ll have to wait until 2011 for the new channel. After Toshiba’s first solid, but otherwise uninspiring Blu-ray player, the company’s next three Blu-ray players will be a little bit more feature packed, and yep you guessed it, 3D enabled. Well actually, only one model will be 3D enabled and it won’t be available until later in the year, but the two soon to arrive models will have Netflix, Vudu, CinemaNow and Pandora streaming support, and Wi-Fi connectivity on the more expensive of the two models. On the PC front, PowerDVD maker Cyberlink demonstrated 3D Blu-ray on a PC. The PC should have an easier path to 3D, since most have the processing power required to decode the “twice the information” Blu-ray video stream (one stream for each eye), and everything else can be done in software. Of course, you’ll still need a new monitor and a pair of glasses.

Panasonic 3DTV and 3D Blu-ray Player

Panasonic already has a range of 3D ready devices ready for release soon

Now there has been some confusion in regards to the requirement for 3D, and I’m still not 100% clear on all aspects of it, but basically, you’ll need a new TV or monitor. For the PC monitor, you’ll need one that can display 120 Hz, but most can only do 60Hz. The reason you need 120Hz is because due to the need to provide two separate pictures (one for each eye), a 60Hz monitor effectively only gives 30Hz to each eye, which is not nearly good enough to ensure a headache free experience. On the home theater front, there’s also some confusion as to whether HDMI 1.4 is needed for 3D Blu-ray. The answer is probably no, since the 3D Blu-ray specs say that the PS3 can be upgraded via firmware to support 3D Blu-ray, and PS3s don’t have HDMI 1.4 connectors. The part of the HDMI specs that provides for the higher bandwidth video transfer needed by 3D Blu-ray apparently already exists, but it was up to manufacturers whether they wanted to support it or not, and since there was no demand for it, most do not support it. HDMI 1.4 will mandate support, and so expect most new 3D ready HDTVs to use this version of the connector, although against it’s not strictly required. Panasonic’s 3D Blu-ray players will actually have both a 1.4 connector and a 1.3 connector for connecting to legacy equipment. And just because a HDTV displays at 120Hz (and even if it had HDMI 1.4), it doesn’t mean that it will be 3D ready. Most TVs display 120Hz by taking a the 60Hz input and then frame double, or even frame quadruple to 240Hz. However, 3D ready sets will need to be able to accept and process the true 120Hz signal that 3D Blu-ray players will output, and most can’t do that at the moment. That’s my take on it anyway, but basically, if the TV doesn’t say 3D ready, then it’s not 3D ready, probably. This information and the new logo for 3D Blu-ray can be found in this forum thread.

And it was a refreshing change to see LG announce a new Blu-ray player and it had nothing to do with 3D. Instead, it has a built in 250GB hard drive, not for storing managed copies (not yet anyway), but for storing downloads from VUDU as well as the user’s own content. Speaking of Managed Copy, there was hardly any mention of it at the CES, apart from Cyberlink demonstrating a jukebox system for Blu-ray which will utilize Managed Copy. Disappointing, but not surprising.

Gaming

And in gaming, not much other than more 3D stuff, with the PS3, Microsoft still showing off Project Natal, although it won’t be here until 10 month or so from now, so it’s hard to get excited over it yet. Nothing much for the Wii, except it may support Netflix at some stage.

The CES concludes today, so there will be more digestion of the news over the coming week I suppose, as well as any last minute announcements. I’m getting a bit tired of this 3D thing anyway, because I still can’t see past it as just another short lived gimmick, which 3D will always be until the type where you don’t need glasses becomes mainstream. See you next week.

Weekly News Roundup (27 December 2009), 2009 Year In Review (Sort of)

Sunday, December 27th, 2009

Welcome to the last WNR of 2009. As expected, news was extremely light during the height of the festive season, so this WNR will be a year in review of sorts, although it’s mostly based on memory, and a bad one at that. But first, we’ll go through the news that did manage to turn up this week.

IsoHunt Logo

MPAA wins against IsoHunt, and a trial wasn't even needed

The big one was isoHunt losing its lawsuit, but it wasn’t really much of a surprise. In fact, the judge didn’t even see the need for a full trial, giving Hollywood studios an Christmas present in terms of a summary judgement against isoHunt, based on past cases involving Napster and Grokster. isoHunt itself is happily running in Canada, but it is also now under pressure from the CRIA, the Canadian version of the MPAA. isoHunt’s argument that it was only a search engine did not really work, and evidence uncovered showed that the operators actively promoted pirated content, which is really just common sense when you consider torrent sites and what their main purpose is. Take Mininova for example, since it went legit just under a month ago, traffic to the site has dropped 60 to 70%, according to Alexa. The argument that torrent files are just text files won’t really work in court either, not when courts have been happily citing even just simple web links as being infringing content.

Speaking of pirated content, Torrent Freak has compiled data for the most pirated movies of 2009. Leading the chart is Star Trek, closely followed by Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen. Coincidentally, these two are the top selling Blu-ray titles of 2009. I don’t know if there’s any relations between the two set of numbers, other than the fact that these two movies are really popular, and that popular stuff get purchased, or pirated, a lot! The question of how much money has been lost to piracy is extremely hard to answer. There will always be people who, no matter what, will simply not pay for movies. There are those that downloaded the pirated version, liked it, and got the movie on DVD or Blu-ray. There are also those that went to watch it at the cinema and then downloaded the pirated version. How many people would have forked over cash if the pirated version didn’t exist is unknown. Perhaps the studios can try and focus their anti-piracy efforts on one particular movie, and basically go on a huge offensive, getting torrents removed as they are uploaded. I’m skeptical whether any action, even the most extreme, can prevent piracy, but it’s worth a try, even if it means spending 50 million dollars or something. Then see how the revenue of this movie compares to similar releases. Maybe they can then try to prevent a movie from being show on free to air TV or being rented, and see if it helps with DVD sales, and the music labels can get in on the act and prevent a single from being heard on radio, to see if it helps CD sales.

While the studios haven’t prevented a movie from being rented to increase DVD/Blu-ray sales, they have prevented movies from being rented in specific ways. Redbox, the new common enemy amongst several studios, has felt the brunt of the studio’s actions, which claim the DVD rental vending machine operator is hurting rental and sell through income for their movies and have barred Redbox from doing several things, including using box art in their digital displays. Fortunately for Redbox, the law still allows them to rent movies as long as they buy it from retail channels, and that’s what they’ve been doing with releases from Warner, Universal and Fox, and making up their own cover art at the same time. What I don’t understand is why these studios don’t simply do what the others (Disney, Sony, Paramount …) have done and work out a deal with Redbox that benefits all.

It’s this and new methods of viewing that the studios fear though, because they’re losing control. One in three Australians now use DVRs to watch TV, and that’s seen as hurting TV stations what with ad skipping, although our local version of TiVo has removed the ad skipping feature. If the studios (and TV networks) get their way, TiVo and other DVRs won’t exist, which is not good for the consumer (or the electronic firms that sell DVRs). But ads are important, as they are the main source of revenue for TV stations, so a compromise has to be found. The TV networks as we know it will have to change anyway, what with the emergence of TV on demand. Expect this to be yet another battle front in the digital wars.

Oppo BDP-83

A cheaper sibling to the Oppo BDP-83 will be available soon, but Oppo's are still hard to find outside of the US

And moving on to HD news, Oppo will release a cheaper version of their highly rated, but as yet unavailable world wide, Blu-ray player. It’s unknown what features will be cut in order to reduce the cost, but most likely it will be the DVD-Audio and SACD features, since most people don’t really need support for these formats. Will it also come with HDMI 1.4, which is also set to be released around January? HDMI 1.4 itself seems to be still in flux, as the HDMI consortium wants to add 3D broadcast support to the standard, along with the new two way audio support and built in Ethernet capabilities that are the headline features of the new version. I for one hope that there will be no more HDMI revisions in the future, because it’s ridiculous that all HD devices sold so far will become obsolete next month as a result of this HDMI change. Of course, most of the newly added HDMI features are not “must haves” that will force people to buy new TVs, and backwards compatibility is being maintained, but still.

And that’s the news for the week, so I guess the rest of the WNR will be for my brief and fairly incomplete year in review.

Copyright

Starting with copyright. It’s been a year of lawsuits. And most of them have brought success to the copyright holders. We’ve seen The Pirate Bay lose time and time again, and then sold, although it doesn’t seem to affect the website’s operation.

Mininova was probably the biggest casualty, having removed all of its illegal content last month, and as mentioned before, seeing a 60% traffic drop as a result. isoHunt is the latest casualty, having lost the lawsuit just last week, but the website is at least still operational. Expect more closures next year.

Sarkozy

Nicolas Sarkozy: Most hated figure in 2009, copyright wise

Then there’s the Australian lawsuit against ISP iiNet, dubbed the iiTrial. The case went over many of the issues in the piracy debate, specifically about responsibility of ISPs, and whether they should act as copyright cops. We’ll find out the answers to these questions early next year when the verdict is due. This trend of attacking ISPs isn’t just an down under thing, this has been the new strategy of the copyright holders in 2009. From the French introduction of the, albeit watered down, three-strikes legislation, to the MPAA asking for something similar to every government that’s willing to listen, we could see some big changes in 2010 when it comes to the relationship between the government, your ISP and you.

But that’s not to say that the copyright holders haven’t been attacking individuals. Two high profile trials concluded with unbelievable damages being awarded to record profit making  Hollywood, $1.92 million and $675,000 against a single mother and a student respectively. This was supposed to put the fear into downloaders, but the fact is that pirated downloads have actually increased during the year.

The positives of 2009 for copyright include the death of DRM for music, when iTunes went DRM free in April, which saw other online music stores doing the same before and after this date. DRM is still well and alive for everything else though and happily ruining user experiences and even movie previews. Several free music services popped up in 2009 as well, as an alternative to illegal downloads, but only time will tell if their business model works in the long term, and on a global scale. 2009 also saw the increasing popularity of Digital Copies, bundled with both DVD and Blu-ray packages. These DRM protected, time limited video files have at least provided a free alternative to DVD ripping, although Managed Copy for Blu-ray is set to do much more, if it ever gets implemented. But we can still say that 2009 saw the first Managed Copy Blu-ray being released.

High Definition

Which moves us neatly onto HD news for 2009. It was a very good year for Blu-ray, most noticeable in the last quarter thanks to some very high profile releases. The record breaking release of The Dark Knight during December 2008 was only recently shattered by Star Trek and the holiday sales period, but there is no denying the fact that Blu-ray sales have double or more in the year.

Most of this has been due to price cuts, which sees Blu-ray hardware and movies quickly approaching DVD levels, and at times, below that of new release DVDs. Consumers spent less as a result, although this may largely be due to the poor economic conditions, and the growth in Blu-ray revenue was not enough to cover up the losses on DVD, although the situation is not nearly as bad a year ago. Digital downloads and streaming, as well as rental, saw amazing growth during the year as well. Netflix, who offers both digital and traditional rentals, grew strongly thanks to integration with first the Xbox 360, and then the PS3. This is not to mention the increasing number of Blu-ray players that now come with some sort of online streaming support, and Blu-ray players are fast becoming replacements for set top boxes, which everyone always thought would have been necessary for a large scale rollout of digital services.

Blu-ray Sales Percentage - 4 May 2008 to 29 November 2009 - Click to see larger version

Blu-ray sales grew healthily in 2009

2009 also saw the HD format war loser, Toshiba, come out with their first, albeit modest, Blu-ray player offering, and thus officially end their ill fated HD DVD adventure. And although HD DVD has died, the innovations that the format provided still lives on in Blu-ray, with the mandatory Internet connectivity on HD DVD players now all but mandatory in name on Blu-ray in BD Live, which has allowed the aforementioned online streaming services to be used through Blu-ray players. And the emergence of Managed Copy, which was first made mandatory for HD DVD, is now coming to Blu-ray, albeit with some resistance. And even the good old double sided Combo is coming back through HD DVD backer Universal.

Most studios still prefer the separate disc combo method, and combo now usually means both the DVD and Digital Copy version of the movie. Digital Copy has made headway as well, now available not only on DRM’d WMV files, but also through iTunes on PCs and Macs, and thus, playability on iPods and iPhones. Digital Copy has been so popular, that it’s hard now to find a new hit release without it. And the general idea of Combos have been popular as well, with Warner recently announcing that all their major Blu-ray releases next year will be combos with both the DVD and Digital Copy included on separate discs. Blu-ray’s value for money has increased as a results, as the ever smaller premium you pay for movies over the DVD version is made up by the inclusion of the DVD version on a separate disc. Disney even made combos the first and only package available to buy for a few of their hit titles, and stats have shown that even after the exclusive period, people preferred to buy the better value combos.

Blu-ray on PCs are still somewhat of a disappointment, but GPU assisted decoding is now available in most systems, even some of the netbook offerings though Nvidia Ion. Will we see a mainstream PC game released exclusively on Blu-ray disc in 2010?

3D promises to be the studios’ next target in 2010, hoping to bring HD 3D to the home via the now finalized 3D Blu-ray specs. Only the tough set of requirements, such as a new TV, rule out the guaranteed success of 3D Blu-ray.

Gaming

And finally in gaming, 2009 unfortunately didn’t reach the highs of 2008 in terms of sales. The year started somewhat flat, and then soon saw Wii sales tumble along with most other consoles. Then Sony did what everyone wanted them to do and reduced the price of the PS3, and surprised many with the introduction of a brand new Slim version of the console. Both of these factors revived the fortunes of the PS3, taking it from last place amongst the home based consoles to nearly topping the monthly sales of the Wii. The holiday period, and the biggest release in the history of music, movies or gaming, Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 2, helped the Xbox 360 regain some of the lost momentum after the PS3 Slim/PS3 price cut. Even the Wii had a recovery of sorts during the holiday sales, but is still easily 30+% down compared to last year, although 2008 was crazy in terms of Wii sales.

The PSP Go largely flopped, while the DS, with the updated DSi, now completely dominates the handheld market.

Sony PS3 Slim

The PS3 Slim, and the price cuts, helped the PS3 to stage a brilliant comeback in 2009

In terms of games, Call of Duty: MW 2 was easily the best selling game of 2009, and of all time possibly, at least for the release figures. The PS3 had a couple of hit exclusive titles (Kill Zone 2, inFAMOUS, Uncharted 2) that did well enough, but there still aren’t enough consoles in the US to really make these sell. Game sales are down as well compared to 2008, even though the biggest hits of 2009 were bigger than the hits of 2008. But 2009 was still the best year outside of 2008 in the history of gaming, and things only look to improve as Sony and Microsoft both bring out their motion control systems next year, although in Microsoft’s case, it will be towards the end of 2010. You can vote for your game of the year here.

A more detailed 2009 roundup will be written up as soon as the December figures are released in the middle January.

And that’s pretty much 2009 in review, very brief I know and missing all of the crucial events that I’ve failed to remember. News is likely to be hard to find next week as well, and so if there’s nothing to write about and if I remember more stuff, then perhaps you’ll see part two of the 2009 year in review then.

But until then, I hope you’ve had a great 2009 and everyone here at Digital Digest wishes you a happy and prosperous 2010. HNYIA (Happy New Year In Advance)