DVDGuy’s Blog @ Digital Digest

Slightly later than usual, due to NPD releasing their figures later, but better late than never. Or is it. With Awful April out of the way, everyone was keen to find out whether the next month be Merry or Miserable May. Once again, NPD is not providing PS2 sales numbers and only the top 5 game sales have sales figures. The figures are from NPD, a marketing research firm that releases games console sale data every month.

The figures for US sales in May 2010 are below, ranked in order of number of sales (May 2009 figures also shown, including percentage change):

• DS: 383,700 (Total: 42.1 million; May 2009: 633,500 – down 39%)
• Wii: 334,800 (Total: 29.2 million; May 2009: 289,500 – up 16%)
• Xbox 360: 194,600 (Total: 20.1 million; May 2009: 175,000 – up 11%)
• PS3: 154,500 (Total: 12.4 million; May 2009: 131,000 – up 18%)
• PSP: 59,400 (Total: 17.3 million; May 2009: 100,400 – down 41%)

NPD May 2010 Game Console US Sales Figures

NPD Game Console Total US Sales Figures (as of May 2010)

My prediction from last month was:

The PS3 shortage continues, and so it will still do poorly in sales I think, and probably outsold by the Xbox 360 with the hardware sales order remaining the same as this month. On the software front, the Xbox 360 version of Red Dead Redemption should be the top seller, with the PS3 version closely behind. Alan Wake, the much hyped Xbox 360 exclusive, should be in the top 10 as well. There might be room for the PS3 exclusive 3D Dot Game Heroes as well. Along with the usual Wii titles, the new Super Mario Galaxy 2 should rank in the top 10 as well. Overall sales should pick up compared to April, but probably still down year on year at least for the hardware figures.

I think most of what I posted came true, which is a rarity indeed. The PS3 stock shortage did hinder sales to the point where even growth compared to the same time last year was muted, although still comfortably up. I don’t know what’s the issue with Sony’s PS3 production, but the problem appears to have been sold for June already. Perhaps they were saving stock for an expected bump in sales in June, due to E3 and the announcement of Move, but who knows. For Sony’s other console (the one that still matters to the NPD), the PSP, sales are not doing too well, once again a 40+% drop in sales against a year before. The PSP really hasn’t decided what it wants to be, unlike the DS which has firmly established itself as the portable console of choice for an ever younger audience (of both genders, importantly). With iPhones, iPads and all sorts of portable devices, the traditional gaming demographic (young males) may be finding a dedicated console a bit of an overkill. Nintendo was wise to market the DS to anyone but the traditional gaming demographic.

The Xbox 360 continues to do well, once again outselling the same month last year, and outselling the PS3, which is all you can ask for really. The E3 surprise announcement of the new “slim” Elite and the subsequent almost immediate release means June was probably a good month for the Xbox 360, the new console having secured top of the sales charts for the last week or so at least on Amazon. The early pre-order numbers for Kinect is promising, certainly gathering a bit more interest on Amazon than the PlayStation Move, but these figures mean nothing right now – only when both add-ons get closer to their release date, will we then be able to see just which will be the most popular, and which will help generate console and software sales.

For Nintendo, a year-on-year growth for the Wii is rare these days, and so it was a good month. Unfortunately, DS sales dropped rather alarmingly again, that’s 58% and now 39% drops in sales, but this was up against the release of the DSi last year, and so it’s somewhat understandable. Nintendo will hope the 3DS will be the next must have console.

Speaking of Move, Kinect and the 3DS, I’ve just put up a poll asking which of these interest you the most – you can vote in it here.

Onto software sales now. As expected, Red Dead Redemption was top, with the Xbox 360 version not quite outselling the PS3 version by 2:1, but the days where the number of Xbox 360 consoles sold had a 2:1 margin over the PS3 are also gone as well (it’s now 1.62 to 1, which stacks up quite neatly to RDR’s 1.66 to 1 sales ratio for the Xbox 360 version). And as I noted last month, Super Mario Galaxy 2 also ranked in the top 10, at a high 3rd place too, just a few thousand units shy of 2nd place. This was one of three Wii titles in the top 10, the other two being the usuals (Wii Fit Plus and New Super Mario Bros.). The Xbox 360 did one better with 4 titles in the top 10, the exclusive Alan Wake as expected (but did poorly than I think what Microsoft would have wanted for such a hyped up game). The PS3 had two titles, including RDR and the multi-platform UFC 2010: Undisputed, which went close to outselling the Xbox 360 version of the same game. But without full figures for all the top 10 software sales, there’s no other analysis that I can provide, such as overall market share, but it would be safe to say that the Xbox 360 led the way, with the Wii in second place, and the PS3 in third.

Here’s the complete list of the top 10 software sales:

1. Red Dead Redemption (Xbox 360, Take-Two) – 945,900
2. Red Dead Redemption (PS3, Take-Two) – 567,100
3. Super Mario Galaxy 2 (Wii, Nintendo) – 563,900
4. UFC 2010: Undisputed (Xbox 360, THQ) – 221,200
5. UFC 2010: Undisputed (PS3, THQ) – 192,300
6. Wii Fit Plus w/Balance Board (Wii, Nintendo)
7. New Super Mario Bros. Wii (Wii, Nintendo)
8. Alan Wake (Xbox 360, Microsoft)
9. Pokemon SoulSilver (DS, Nintendo)
10. Skate 3 (Xbox 360, EA)

It’s time to make my usual predictions. With the PS3 stock shortage crisis over, PS3 sales should rise. The Xbox 360 would otherwise have been relegated to third place amongst the home consoles, but the new “slim” Elite may save the day, and maybe even sell enough to keep it above the PS3. I keep on expecting either the PS3 or Xbox 360 to outsell the Wii, but it hasn’t happened very often, and June is probably the same, although it has a greater chance than previous months. Not a huge month for new game releases though, so RDR may remain in the charts, with Super Mario Galaxy keeping up sales and possibly stealing a march on the RDR games.

See you next month (or sooner, if NPD don’t again delay the stats).

It’s that time of the month again, and NPD has released the April 2010 US video games sales figures for this little blog to analyse. March was a big month for the PS3, and all eyes are on the Sony console to see if it can repeat the stellar performance in April. NPD itself has a few changes, in that they are no longer counting PS2 sales (perhaps Sony should take the hint and formally declare it end of line), and they are also not providing all the figures for the top 10 game sales, which makes analysis a little bit more difficult. The figures are from NPD, a marketing research firm that releases games console sale data every month.

The figures for US sales in April 2010 are below, ranked in order of number of sales (April 2009 figures also shown, including percentage change):

• DS: 440,800 (Total: 41.7 million; April 2009: 1,040,000 – down 58%)
• Wii: 277,200 (Total: 28.8 million; April 2009: 340,000 – down 18%)
• Xbox 360: 185,400 (Total: 19.9 million; April 2009: 175,000 – up 6%)
• PS3: 180,800 (Total: 12.3 million; April 2009: 127,000 – up 42%)
• PSP: 65,500 (Total: 17.3 million; April 2009: 116,000 – down 44%)

NPD April 2010 Game Console US Sales Figures

NPD Game Console Total US Sales Figures (as of April 2010)

My prediction from last month was:

I think the PS3 will outsell the Wii in April. This is based on the strong software numbers for March, plus the stock shortage issue being resolved finally which will give the PS3 a bump in sales. While there’s no new major PS3 exclusive in April, Super Street Fighter IV will be available, and based on the non Super version of the fighting game, the PS3 version should outsell the Xbox 360 version as well. Tom Clancy’s Splinter Cell Conviction, which is a console only exclusive for the Xbox 360 (there’s also a PC version), should do well, and God of War III should still be charting. So another good month for the PS3, with better hardware numbers, but probably slightly lesser software domination, for April.

What I failed to take into account was the Easter sales effect, and with Easter sales event coming in March this year, as opposed to April of last year, this accounts for quite a bit, but not all, of the sales drops recorded for April (compared to March). The double whammy is that while the Easter sales event happened in March, the Easter holiday period occurred in April, and so sales were further subdued as a result. And therefore, none of the consoles sold better in April than in March. The PS3 did not outsell the Wii. The PS3 didn’t even outsell the Xbox 360, but only losing to it narrowly. The game predictions were pretty much spot on, but with overall sales down 26% compared to April 2009 (21% of it attributed to Easter, probably), everything sold in fewer numbers.

The PS3 stock shortage appears to be continuing, at least when looking at Amazon. So this is perhaps one of the reasons why the PS3 isn’t dominating as it should based on recent game releases. This stock shortage has been going on far longer than it should have – I don’t know what the reasons are, but it can’t be helping Sony. PS3 sales still grew by 42% compared to the same month last year, but April 2009 was a bad month for the console, as it had the dubious record of being outsold by the PS2 during that particular month. What is more worrying for Sony is the PS2 and PSP. As mentioned earlier, the NPD has stopped tracking PS2 numbers, giving Sony a hint as to the future of the last-gen console. Perhaps it’s time Sony finally retires this ageing console, so they can concentrate all efforts on the PS3. They certainly won’t be concentrating efforts on the PSP, which has recorded yet another month of dismal sales. Recording what is the worst set of results since release, the PSP is seriously out of ideas, being outsold by the DS by almost a 7:1 margin this month, the total units sold gap between the DS and PSP has grown from 15.6 million units in April 2009 to 24.4 million just a year later.

The Xbox 360 continued to outsell the PS3, and continues to grow in a year-to-year comparison, a modest 6% increased compared to April 2009. If Sony is hoping to close the gap between the Xbox 360 and the PS3 total units sold in the US, then they’re doing about it the wrong way in regards to managing the stock shortage, and if anything, the gap has grown wider in recent month. And if Sony is hoping the PlayStation Move will help the PS3, then they have to hope Project Natal flops for the Microsoft console. E3, which will occur around this time next month, will give us a strong hint as to whether Move or Natal will dominate holiday sales based on the reception both demos get at the expo. But as long as the Xbox 360 is outselling the PS3, even if only by a small margin, Microsoft can’t be too unhappy with the results.

For Nintendo, the picture isn’t great this month. The DS recorded a huge 58% drop in sales compared to the same time last year, and even if you take into account the Easter effect, there’s still a drop in sales. The Wii continues to drop in sales, down 18% compared to last year. The Wii’s sales decline can be traced to April 2009, when it started to show signs of weakness. But the DS is still outselling the PSP easily, and the Wii is still outselling both the PS3 and Xbox 360 relatively easily, so it’s not time to panic yet for Nintendo. But they need something up their sleeves for the Wii if they want to continue to dominate after both Sony and Nintendo release their motion control systems.

On to software sales now. The month’s most popular title was Tom Clancy’s Splinter Cell: Conviction for the Xbox 360, outselling the number two title, which was also last month’s number two title, Pokemon SoulSilver, by more than a 2:1 margin. Conviction was a console exclusive for the 360. God of War III slipped to 5th place after last month’s monster 1st place finish. And as expected, Super Street Fighter IV on the PS3 outsold the Xbox 360 version, by a 1.3-to-1 margin – the previous Street Fighter game also sold more on the PS3 than on the Xbox 360. The usual Wii titles are in the mix, New Super Mario Bros, Wii Sports Resort and Wii Fit Plus, and also Just Dance, which refuses to go away. The other Xbox 360 title in 7th place was Battlefield: Bad Company 2, which outsold the PS3 version by around a 1.6-to-1 margin. Note that NPD did not provide figures for Wii Fit Plus this month, but knowing the sales numbers for the titles just above and below it, we can estimate sales at between 144,000 units and 166,000 units. For the sake of compiling market share percentage figures, sales for Wii Fit Plus can be  estimated to be 155,000, and if using this figure, the Wii games had 32.5% of the top 10 with 4 entries, closely followed by the Xbox 360 games on 31.2% for just two titles. The PS3 had two titles in the top 10, with 15.5% of the top 10 units sold. The two Pokemon DS titles accounted for the rest. It was interesting to note that both Final Fantasy versions not only disappeared from the top 10, they disappeared from the top 20 as well.

Here’s the complete list of the top 10 software sales:

1. Tom Clancy’s Splinter Cell: Conviction (Xbox 360, Ubisoft) – 486,100
2. Pokemon SoulSilver (DS, Nintendo) – 242,900
3. New Super Mario Bros. Wii (Wii, Nintendo) – 200,300
4. Pokemon HeartGold (DS, Nintendo) – 192,600
5. God of War III (PS3, Sony) – 180,300
6. Wii Sports Resort (Wii, Nintendo) – 179,000
7. Battlefield: Bad Company 2 (Xbox 360, EA) – 166,000
8. Wii Fit Plus w/Balance Board (Wii, Nintendo) – 155,000 (estimated)
9. Just Dance (Wii, Ubisoft) – 144,000
10. Super Street Fighter IV (PS3, Capcom) – 143,000

Prediction time. The PS3 shortage continues, and so it will still do poorly in sales I think, and probably outsold by the Xbox 360 with the hardware sales order remaining the same as this month. On the software front, the Xbox 360 version of Red Dead Redemption should be the top seller, with the PS3 version closely behind. Alan Wake, the much hyped Xbox 360 exclusive, should be in the top 10 as well. There might be room for the PS3 exclusive 3D Dot Game Heroes as well. Along with the usual Wii titles, the new Super Mario Galaxy 2 should rank in the top 10 as well. Overall sales should pick up compared to April, but probably still down year on year at least for the hardware figures.

See you next month.

March is a huge month for gaming software, particularly for the PS3, with the release of the much anticipated God of War III, plus the first truly current-gen Final Fantasy game (always a big draw for the PS3, although this time, it’s no longer a platform exclusive). The PS3 has never dominated software sales, particularly the top 10, so March is an excellent opportunity for Sony to achieve this. The Xbox 360 was also the best selling home based console in February, but both Nintendo and Sony blamed stock shortages for the low hardware numbers, and it will be interesting to see if the Xbox 360 continues to hold top spot this month. The figures are from NPD, a marketing research firm that releases games console sale data every month.

The figures for US sales in March 2010 are below, ranked in order of number of sales (March 2009 figures also shown, including percentage change):

• DS: 700,800 (Total: 41.2 million; February 2009: 563,000 – up 24%)
• Wii: 557,500 (Total: 28.6 million; February 2009: 601,000 – down 7%)
• Xbox 360: 338,400 (Total: 19.7 million; February 2009: 331,000 – up 2%)
• PS3: 313,900 (Total: 12.1 million; February 2009: 218,000 – up 44%)
• PSP: 119,900 (Total: 17.2 million; February 2009: 168,000 – down 29%)
• PS2: 118,300 (Total: 45.5 million; February 2009: 112,000 – up 6%)

NPD March 2010 Game Console US Sales Figures

NPD Game Console Total US Sales Figures (as of March 2010)

My prediction from last month was:

I find it hard to make one for hardware sales because of the stock shortage issue, but if I had to go out on a limb, then I say the PS3 is second, behind the DS, and above the Wii and Xbox 360. I think the Xbox 360 will come fourth, with the Wii recovering a bit. The reason I say the PS3 is going to top the other home consoles is because of two things. One is called Final Fantasy XIII, the other is called God of War III. Having two huge releases in the same month should help hardware sales, but I wonder if it isn’t better to separate these two titles, which might get into each other’s way in terms of vying for gamers’ pocket money. But what do I know. In any case, there aren’t too many new releases for either the Xbox 360 or the Wii, so Sony could really clean up in March.

So the PS3 didn’t come second, but the Wii did outsell the Xbox 360, and the two PS3 titles I mentioned did do rather well in the top 10 charts. Sony says the PS3 hardware numbers are still low due to stock shortage issues, which is a shame because they knew these two top titles were coming out and yet didn’t prepare enough hardware stock to meet demands. The Xbox 360 still managed to outsell the PS3, but it’s hard to know how much of it is due to stock shortages. And Sony did clean up in terms of software, if not in hardware.

The more cynical might say that the PS3 stock shortage will end as soon as it manages to beat the Xbox 360. But looking at the current Amazon charts, the previously sold out PS3 120GB is currently the top seller, so it might very well beat the Xbox 360, and maybe even the Wii. Certainly off the backs of two monster software releases, you’d expect the console to do well. March was a good month for Sony, more evident when we get to the software numbers, with even the PS2 recording a year-on-year sales growth. Unfortunately, PSP sales continues to slide.

For Nintendo, the Wii continues to sell poorly based on a year-on-year comparison, but there was only a 7% drop in sales, much better than the usual 40+%. The “less bad” results may also be indicative of a slight bump due to stock shortage issues being addressed. The DS continues to steamroller past all other consoles, and it had a huge title in the software charts as well, so the Nintendo eco-system is still doing well.

For Microsoft, the Xbox 360 recorded yet another monthly figure that was higher than a year ago, albeit a somewhat diminutive 2%. The console has a few exclusives to be released in the next few months, but nothing like the titles on the PS3, and so it could very well be just a matter of limping on until Project Natal is released just before the holidays. The rumour that Project Natal will be available as a bundle with the same price point as the current Elite console could very well make it a holiday time winner, especially when up against the comparatively expensive PlayStation Move (which in order to get the best experience,  requires a PS3 Eye, plus 2 Move controllers and the required nunchuck, now called the Navigation Controller). For now, if Microsoft can keep up with the year-on-year growth, then I think they will be relatively happy, even if relegated to being the least popular of the home consoles.

Moving on to software. Sony stole the show with 40% of the top 10 in terms of units sold, and having 4 titles in the top 10, both of which are records. If not for the Pokemon DS titles, the PS3 games would have dominated even more. The PS3 exclusive God of War III is finally selling like an exclusive, winning the month as the most popular title. Previous exclusives, even as recently as Heavy Rain in last month, did relatively poorly considering the number of consoles out there. Speaking of Heavy Rain, it disappeared from the top 10 altogether, which again suggests that had Sony released it earlier in February, as opposed to the very very end, then it might have had a chance to place much higher in the charts. The second big PS3 title was Final Fantasy XIII, which despite no longer being a platform exclusive, still managed to outsell the Xbox 360 version by almost two to one. With Final Fantasy being very much a PlayStation franchise, and with the PS3’s Blu-ray disc offering better quality pre-recorded visuals than the Xbox 360 version, it all goes on to explain why the Xbox 360 version didn’t sell better. The Xbox 360 did win one multi-platform war, in that Battlefield: Bad Company 2 on the Xbox 360 managed to outsell the PS3 version by almost two to one as well. There was room for one more PS3 exclusive, MLB 10:  The Show, which occupied the last spot. For the Wii, there were only two listings in the top 10, New Super Mario Bros. and Wii Fit making a return. Overall, the PS3 had 40.63% of the top 10, the Xbox 360 with 19.64% and the Wii in last place with 13.21%, the Pokemon DS titles claimed the rest.

Here’s the complete list of the top 10 software sales:

1. God of War III (PS3, Sony) – 1,100,000
2. Pokemon SoulSilver (DS, Nintendo) – 1,020,000
3. Final Fantasy XIII (PS3, Square Enix) – 828,200
4. Battlefield: Bad Company 2 (Xbox 360, EA) – 825,500
5. Pokemon HeartGold (DS, Nintendo) – 761,200
6. Final Fantasy XIII (Xbox 360, Square Enix) – 493,900
7. New Super Mario Bros. Wii (Wii, Nintendo) – 457,400
8. Battlefield: Bad Company 2 (PS3, EA) – 451,200
9. Wii Fit Plus w/Balance Board (Wii, Nintendo) – 224,700
10. MLB 10: The Show (PS3, Sony) – 349,200

So prediction time. I think the PS3 will outsell the Wii, in April. This is based on the strong software numbers for March, plus the stock shortage issue being resolved finally which will give the PS3 a bump in sales. While there’s no new major PS3 exclusive in April, Super Street Fighter IV will be available, and based on the non Super version of the fighting game, the PS3 version should outsell the Xbox 360 version as well. Tom Clancy’s Splinter Cell Conviction, which is a console only exclusive for the Xbox 360 (there’s also a PC version), should do well, and God of War III should still be charting. So another good month for the PS3, with better hardware numbers, but probably slightly lesser software domination, for April.

See you next month.

This February is an important month for several reasons. Following the disappointing numbers for January, there was hope that the gaming industry would pick up again in February. February also marked the release of several new releases, including Bioshock 2 and the PS3 exclusive and critically acclaimed Heavy Rain. So will any of these games make the difference, will the industry start to have positive year to year growth, or are we still in a period of decline? Read on to find out. The figures are from NPD, a marketing research firm that releases games console sale data every month.

The figures for US sales in February 2010 are below, ranked in order of number of sales (February 2009 figures also shown, including percentage change):

• DS: 613,200 (Total: 40.5 million; February 2009: 588,000 – up 4%)
• Xbox 360: 422,000 (Total: 19.4 million; February 2009: 391,000 – up 8%)
• Wii: 397,900 (Total: 28 million; February 2009: 753,000 – down 47%)
• PS3: 360,100 (Total: 11.8 million; February 2009: 276,000 – up 30%)
• PSP: 133,400 (Total: 17.1 million; February 2009: 199,000 – down 33%)
• PS2: 101,900 (Total: 45.4 million; February 2009: 131,000 – down 22%)

NPD February 2010 Game Console US Sales Figures

NPD Game Console Total US Sales Figures (as of February 2010)

My prediction from last month was:

There are some big titles being released in February, several that will help the PS3 more than the Xbox 360, including the platform exclusive Heavy Rain, and while it’s no longer exclusive, Final Fantasy XIII should have a bigger following on the PlayStation platform than on the 360. As a result, I expect the PS3 to outsell the Xbox 360 at the very least and maybe make a run on the Wii. BioShock 2 should do well on the Xbox 360, but the usual Nintendo Wii titles should also be in the top 10.

I think the only thing I got right was that Bioshock 2 on the Xbox 360 did well, and relatively good sales for Heavy Rain. I didn’t even get the Final Fantasy release date right, so it’s best to just forget my prediction and move on (please?).

There was little chance that I would have gotten this month’s hardware sales order right. The Xbox 360 outselling both the Wii and the PS3 was totally unexpected, to be honest. Both Nintendo and Sony have blamed stock shortages for the problem, and a quick browse on most online stores at least confirm the PS3 250GB being sold out for quite a while now. I can sort of understand the Wii having trouble with stock, since it had a monster December, but January was relatively weak in sales and usually stock problems pop up then and gets fixed in February. For the PS3, sales have been much better than last year and I can see why Sony would not have planned for the sales increase with production increases. But still, if Microsoft can meet demand, despite selling more consoles than the PS3 in the last two months, then you have to say for Sony (and Nintendo) that it was an opportunity missed. I might also guess that Sony might be keeping supply short deliberately so that they have enough units to ship out in March, when Final Fantasy XIII is actually released (not February, as I had thought last month, for some reason).

Looking at the year on year figures, the DS, Xbox 360 and PS3 all recorded growth, while the rest fell. The Xbox 360 has consistently had year on year growth, albeit marginal, and that’s quite a feat and Microsoft has the luck of having key game releases spread out evenly to allow this to happen (for example, Modern Warfare 2 came just at the time when it look like the Xbox 360 was running out of steam when faced with superior competition in the form of the price reduced PS3 Slim). The PS3’s growth can be largely attributed to the Slim/price cut, and also the fact that it was doing horribly last year (and the year before). As I showed last month, while the year to year growth for the PS3 was a high 30%, comparing 2010 to 2008 only yielded a 28% sales increase (because February 2009 was actually worse than February 2008 for the PS3). That’s a 28% sales increase in two years, which is not that good at all, especially considering the fact that Xbox 360 sales grew by 66% in the same time period (and as I noted last month, there was a 45% growth for the Xbox 360 comparing January 2008 and 2010 figures, with the PS3 only recording a negligible 3%). The PS3 should be doing a lot better than it still is, but maybe we’ll see that for the rest of the year, as the PS3 has some really high profile exclusives (or semi-exclusives) lined up.

Looking at the red figures, the decline in year on year for the Wii is worrying, even with Nintendo’s assertion that stock shortages were the reason. The Wii has been consistently doing worse the a year before, and has done this for most of 2009, so while February was especially worse due to stock issues, it still would have been a red month for the Wii without the stock issues. Of course, what’s happening with the Wii is almost the opposite of the PS3, whereas the PS3 had a bad 2008/2009 and so it was easy for Sony to record growth, the Wii had a great 2008/first few months of 2009 and so it’s really hard for them to avoid year on year declines. Things should stabilise for the Wii around April, I feel. The PSP and PS2’s decline slowed a bit in February, particularly the PS2, but the PSP is irrelevant now compared to the DS.

Let’s move on to software. The biggest hit of the month, as expected, was Bioshock 2. The fact that the PS3 port didn’t even rank in the top 10 is a bit of a surprise, it was 12th and sold nearly 3 times fewer copies than the Xbox 360 version. The fact that the original Bioshock was a Xbox 360 exclusive may have something to do with it, and expect a similar, but not as extreme, scenario when the formerly PS3 exclusive Final Fantasy XIII is released in March. Another reason could be because buyers had to choose between Heavy Rain and Bioshock 2, and many chose the former instead. Modern Warfare 2 is still holding up in the sales charts, again showing how amazing it has done since release. Last month’s hit, Mass Effect 2, is still doing relatively well. Another surprise is the Wii hit, Just Dance, which somehow managed to increase in sales. It seems to be getting popular and popular! Another interesting situation with Dante’s Inferno, in which the PS3 version outsold the Xbox 360 version – again, expect the PS3 version of FFXIII to do the same next month (although the PS3 having an exclusive edition of the game might have helped). And lastly, we have the critically acclaimed PS3 exclusive Heavy Rain coming in at 10th. Not great, considering how Mass Effect 2 (another console exclusive) did last month (and this month) and how Uncharted 2 did on the same console, but both were sequels which are easier to sell. But as many have noted, Heavy Rain was released towards the end of February, and so it was at an disadvantage compared to most of the other titles. This isn’t the first time Sony has done this with a platform exclusive, by releasing it towards the end of the month as opposed to giving it a whole month to gather sales. I don’t know what is the reason behind this, but they didn’t do this with Uncharted and it managed a number one, but they did it with inFAMOUS and I firmly believe that it could have ranked higher had it been released just a bit earlier. They also did this with Killzone 2, again costing it a few places in the charts perhaps. But I doubt Sony cares too much about the monthly NPD rankings, so games gets released when they get released, I suppose. For Nintendo, New Super Mario Bros. continue to rank, as does Wii Sports Resort, but some of the other usual entries, like Wii Fit Plus or Mario Kart, have been pushed out of the top 10. Overall, the Xbox 360 had the most titles in the top 10, and had 42.6% of sales. The Wii was second with 3 titles and 34.8%, and the PS3 did relatively well with also 3 titles (the equal most ever?) and 22.6%.

Here’s the complete list of the top 10 software sales:

1. Bioshock 2 (Xbox 360, Take-Two) – 562,900
2. New Super Mario Bros. Wii (Wii, Nintendo) – 555,600
3. Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 2 (Xbox 360, Activision) – 314,300
4. Just Dance (Wii, Ubisoft) – 275,400
5. Wii Sports Resort (Wii, Nintendo) – 272,500
6. Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 2 (PS3, Activision) – 252,800
7. Mass Effect 2 (Xbox 360, EA) – 246,500
8. Dante’s Inferno (PS3, EA) – 242,500
9. Dante’s Inferno (Xbox 360, EA) – 224,700
10. Heavy Rain (PS3, Sony) – 219,300

It’s time to make a prediction. I find it hard to make one for hardware sales because of the stock shortage issue, but if I had to go out on a limb, then I say the PS3 is second, behind the DS, and above the Wii and Xbox 360. I think the Xbox 360 will come fourth, with the Wii recovering a bit. The reason I say the PS3 is going to top the other home consoles is because of two things. One is called Final Fantasy XIII, the other is called God of War III. Having two huge releases in the same month should help hardware sales, but I wonder if it isn’t better to separate these two titles, which might get into each other’s way in terms of vying for gamers’ pocket money. But what do I know. In any case, there aren’t too many new releases for either the Xbox 360 or the Wii, so Sony could really clean up in March.

See you next month.

The first figures from 2010 are out. December 2009 was a monster month for hardware sales, for the Nintendo consoles in particular. January usually means a considerable drop as the holiday sales period ends. But unlike most January’s, this one is harder to predict as we have the economy, the PS3 surge, the potential decline of the Xbox 360 and the usual stock shortage problems to contend with. The figures are from NPD, a marketing research firm that releases games console sale data every month.

The figures for US sales in January 2010 are below, ranked in order of number of sales (January 2009 figures also shown, including percentage change):

• Wii: 465,800 (Total: 27.6 million; January 2009: 679,200 – down 31%)
• DS: 422,200 (Total: 39.9 million; January 2009: 510,800 – down 17%)
• Xbox 360: 332,800 (Total: 19 million; January 2009: 309,000 – up 8%)
• PS3: 276,900 (Total: 11.4 million; January 2009: 203,000 – up 36%)
• PSP: 100,100 (Total: 17 million; January 2009: 172,300 – down 42%)
• PS2: 41,600 (Total: 45.3 million; January 2009: 101,200 – down 59%)

NPD January 2010 Game Console US Sales Figures

NPD Game Console Total US Sales Figures (as of January 2010)

My prediction from last month was:

January should see huge sales drop across the board, but that’s just a seasonal thing. And as such, it’s very hard to predict the order of things, although I believe the hardware sales ordering will remain the same. On the software front, January will be largely quiet, Mass Effect 2 on the Xbox 360 should do well, and the rest of the top 10 should have a familiar look to December’s. There are some big releases coming in February and March, so consumers can take a breather in January (and save up).

January’s figures are a mixed bag really. While the ordering was largely the same, the only difference being the Xbox 360 and the PS3 swapping places, there were larger than expected drops for all the consoles. On the software front, Mass Effect 2 on the Xbox 360 did indeed do well, being a console exclusive, and the top 10 had a familiar look, although still room to add in a few new entries.

Compared to January a year ago, only the Xbox 360 and the PS3 managed sales growth. This the second January in a row that the Xbox 360 managed growth, and that’s probably largely thanks to Mass Effects 2. Last January, the PS3 actually recorded a sales drop compared to January 2008, but this January, the PS3 showed the most positive growth. But this has to be taken into context, as the PS3 was doing extremely poorly back in January a year go – take this into account, the PS3 only grew by a paltry 3% between the two January’s of 2008 and 2010 (and for the same comparison, Xbox 360 sales grew by 45%). Sony has said that stock issues were partly responsible, or will be in February at least. Whether that’s true, or it just signals the Slim/price cut led surge in sales is dissipating, we’ll have to wait until March and April’s stats come out to confirm. The Xbox 360 showed growth largely thanks to Mass Effect 2 one would guess, and sales are being kept above the PS3 thanks to strong software sales (including Modern Warfare 2) in two of the last three months.

Looking at the negatives, and there were a lot of them, the Wii continues on with its 30+% month to month drop in sales after taking a break in December. The DS also saw a drop of 17% compared to January 2009. While the PS3 managed growth, the other PlayStation consoles saw massive drops, with the PS2 dropping below 100,000 units sold for the first time since I’ve started recording figures (since September 2007). The PSP was only 100 units away from having this unwanted distinction as well. Both of these platforms are dying a slow death, the PS2 understandably (although Sony would have wanted more PS2 owners to upgrade straight to the PS3 than what is evident), but it’s the PSP that must be worrying for Sony, especially compared to the DS. And as mentioned in the 2009 year in review, the revenue increase from the PS3 doesn’t come anywhere near the revenue drop from these two consoles.

Lets move onto software. As expected, Mass Effect 2 did well, but not enough to unseat New Super Mario Bros. for the Wii, which held on to the top spot. All the usual Wii titles are in there, with only Wii Play missing out on a top 10 spot. Modern Warfare 2 is still selling relatively strong, both console versions are represented in the top 10, with the lower placed one the only PS3 title in the top 10 once again. The Xbox 360 had two more titles, making it a total of four – Army of Two: The 40th Day and Darksiders made the list at 8th and 10th. There was also a non Nintendo Wii title in the top 10 as well, with Ubisoft’s Just Dance sneaking in at 9th. The Wii needs more titles like this to be hitting the top 10 to remain viable in the long term.

Here’s the complete list of the top 10 software sales:

1. New Super Mario Bros. Wii (Wii, Nintendo) – 656,700
2. Mass Effect 2 (Xbox 360, EA) – 572,100
3. Wii Fit Plus (Wii, Nintendo) – 555,700
4. Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 2 (Xbox 360, Activision) – 326,700
5. Mario Kart w/ Wheel (Wii, Nintendo) – 310,900
6. Wii Sports Resort (Wii, Nintendo) – 297,600
7. Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 2 (PS3, Activision) – 259,000
8. Army of Two: The 40th Day (Xbox 360, EA) – 246,500
9. Just Dance (Wii, Ubisoft) – 191,900
10. Darksiders (Xbox 360, THQ) – 171,200

Prediction time. There are some big titles being released in February, several that will help the PS3 more than the Xbox 360, including the platform exclusive Heavy Rain, and while it’s no longer exclusive, Final Fantasy XIII should have a bigger following on the PlayStation platform than on the 360. As a result, I expect the PS3 to outsell the Xbox 360 at the very least and maybe make a run on the Wii. BioShock 2 should do well on the Xbox 360, but the usual Nintendo Wii titles should also be in the top 10.

See you next month.