Archive for the ‘Nintendo Wii, Wii U, Switch’ Category

Weekly News Roundup (17 July 2011)

Sunday, July 17th, 2011

A news-tastic week, and I guess we were due one. It’s a shame, because I was quite busy messing up my Paper (Star) Wars Android game update, in which I released not one, not two, but three versions of the app. It always happens like this though, you get ready to release an update, do all the testing you can, confident that it works, and then you release it only to find that it’s introduced even more bugs than before. But sometimes it’s hard to properly test an app that, according to Android Market, can be deployed on 430+ different Android devices. I added a crash report feature to the app, so that I can get a report every time it crashes, and so far, no new crash reports in the last 72 hours, so that’s something I guess. I also took the opportunity to add an official website for the app, which includes some getting started tips, and also Facebook and Twitter pages.

With plenty of news to go through, let’s get started.

CopyrightIn Copyright news, opposition to the controversial PROTECT IP act is gaining momentum, as this week, more than 100 law professors from around the United States have signed an open letter urging Congress to reconsider the new copyright legislation.

So we’ve had Internet pioneer, leaders in the field of technology, and now also law experts, all coming out attacking PROTECT IP. The law professors repeated the same warnings about messing with the Internet’s naming system, but more importantly, they argued that, from a freedom of speech point of view. But it won’t be the first time Congress has ignored expert advice in favour of lobbyist suggestions, and so, I’m not too hopeful that PROTECT IP will be defeated.

Fair Use

Fair use creates jobs, while tougher copyright may destroy them

And the politicians will not find it a difficult to support the RIAA and MPAA, because, as you know, it’s all about the jobs. The RIAA and MPAA have been arguing that tougher copyright protection means more jobs, and a politician in the current climate can’t afford to be seen as being anti-jobs, even if it is at the expense of being anti-free speech. But a new report by the Computer and Communications Industry Association (CCIA) shows that tougher copyright laws may actually have a negative effect on job creation, as it turns out, the US economy these days are very much driven by fair use related activities. Even I didn’t realise that fair use related industries accounted for 17% of the entire United States’ GDP, some $4.5 trillion in value added contributions. That’s much greater than the film and music business combined, and it makes sense when you see companies like Google, Facebook, Mozilla all embracing open source and taking advantage of fair use in some way.

PROTECT IP, in many ways, is just a protectionist measure in favour of the film and music business, and such measures always hurt other industries, and in this case, it’s the huge tech/Internet industry. But because one industry is more active in lobbying than the others, common sense does not always prevail in Washington. And just because the film and music business receives more protection, it doesn’t mean that they actually benefit financially as well, because tougher copyright laws does not equal more sales (and could even equal less).

If the US wants to see a real world example of tougher copyright laws, and the effect it has on revenue, they can simple look towards France, and see how their “Hadopi” three-strikes law (named after the agency, Hadopi, that is in charge of administering the program)  is working out. A new report shows the extraordinary level of monitoring that occurs, some 18 million incidents of piracy were recorded in just nine months. But out of the 18 million, only 470,000 users were sent “first-strike” emails, warning them of alleged copyright infringement being conducted via their Internet accounts. And then, in what seems to be strongest indication of the effectiveness of three-strikes, only 20,000 “second-strike” emails were sent out, suggesting that 450,000 people took the first warning the right way and “stopped” pirating. And at the end of it all, only 10 people were being considered for further action after reaching their third strike – so that’s millions spent to catch 10 people.

But despite what appears to be a 95% reduction in piracy (going from 470,000 first time offenders to only 20,000 second time offenders), there’s almost no information on the actual economic benefits of the reduction in piracy, if the reduction even exists. I can only assume that there has been no positive effect on music and movie sales in France as a result of three-strikes, because otherwise, the RIAA/MPAA would be using it as evidence that every country in the world should adopt graduated response. And just because people stopped being detected, it doesn’t mean they’ve stopped pirating – direct downloads have never been monitored by Hadopi, and it’s impossible for them to monitor BitTorrent usage if it’s done via a VPN either.

It makes perfect sense to me though, that if someone who couldn’t afford to buy a movie or a piece of music still remains in the same situation after tougher copyright laws are introduced, and as long as this is true, there can be no increase in revenue. People will stop enjoying content illegally, and if they can’t afford the legal version, they will simply stop enjoying the content entirely. And this reduces the word of mouth effect, and also prevents “upgraders”, those that download illegally and then purchase later because they really liked the content. And so, tougher copyright laws may actually lead to revenue loss. The truth of the matter is that movie home entertainment revenue is much higher than what it was before the Internet become popular, and so is gaming. And that while the music industry isn’t doing as well, increased competition from other sectors (such as movies and gaming), and the increasing popularity of purchasing music singles over albums, are all more accountable for the decline in revenue than just piracy. The music industry needs to stop blaming piracy on all of its problems, and the movie industry needs to stop pretending there is a problem (what with box office receipts at an all time high, and home entertainment revenue up significantly compared to 15 years ago).

Music Industry Revenue by Content Type

This graph shows that music industry revenue has been dominated by album sales ...

Music industry revenue for albums on different formats

... and as you can see, albums were popular on CD but has been declining ...

Music industry revenue for singles on different formats

... and this graph shows digital music is all about singles, which may explain the industry's revenue loss

The truth is that the way people consume content has changed drastically, and yes, a lot of that is due to the Internet. But with change, comes opportunity, and if the film and music industry aren’t interested in exploring the new opportunities, others will, and in this case, it has been the technology companies, like Apple and Netflix, that has benefited the most. And the latest to join their ranks may be Spotify, which has just been launched in the United States, albeit in a limited invitation only phase. Spotify attempts to address one of the fundamental shifts in media consumption, the lessening need to “own” music (well, people never owned music anyway, there merely licensed a recording of it), and the increasing need to consume (which makes owning far too expensive and time consuming to manage). So instead, people stream all the music they want in an on-demand fashion, for free if they’re willing to put up with ads. It’s completely legal, so no moral guilty as compared to piracy, plus the music industry can receive financial compensation. And those that do want to “own”, or at least rent, can buy one of Spotify’s paid for plans, with more money going towards the music industry. With Spotify, there’s almost no reason at all for pirating music.

Spotify Logo

Spotify is launching in the US, and there are now even fewer reasons for people to pirate music

And in a similar vein, UltraViolet for movies also attempt to change the way content is sold to more closely follow the consumer’s needs, an ambitious project that has the backing of more than 70 companies from a range of industries, with support, albeit reluctantly at certain aspects of it, from the movie industry. This week, UltraViolet licensing beings officially, and beta testing is also under way for an official launch later this year. If it works, it will finally allow movie lovers to buy the movie (or license it), as opposed to just buying the media that the movies comes on. It’s Digital Copy, but done right, with industry wide support, and done via the Internet.

And so, there is hope, that the music and film industry can embrace change and come out the other side stronger than before. Let’s just hope they don’t erode all of our civil rights, in a vain attempt to use legislation to stop copyright infringement, before then.

And finally, before we move on to other topics, the MPAA’s lawsuit against Hotfile has some new developments this week, as the judge in case threw out the MPAA’s claim of direct copyright infringement, simply on the grounds that Hotfile themselves did not upload any of the content that is considered to be infringing on the MPAA’s copyrights. However, the judge did feel Hotfile can be found guilty of secondary copyright infringement, of inducement to infringement by paying affiliates money for uploading popular content. I don’t think it will end well for Hotfile unfortunately, as the MPAA has chosen their target wisely, by choosing a file sharing host that actively promotes popular uploads with payment, and thus, encourage users  to upload pirated content.

High Definition

In HD/3D news, a new report suggests that Blu-ray will beat DVD by 2014 to become the most popular disc format around.

But even by then, Blu-ray’s gain in revenue would not have offset DVD’s loss, and so it will be digital media that saves the day. The report, from London-based Futuresource, says that at that time, physical media will still account for more than half of the industry’s revenue, but digital media won’t be too far behind, accounting for 46% of the market.

While Blu-ray only accounts for 13% of the sell-through market last year, it’s not too hard to believe Blu-ray will get close to 50% by 2014, especially if you look at recent data as listed in our weekly Blu-ray/DVD sales analysis. Blu-ray revenue, in the US at least, appears to be already above the 20% mark on average, and for some recent releases like ‘Sucker Punch’ have managed to has a first week Blu-ray market share way above this average (61.42% to be precise).

Blu-ray 3D Logo

Over 3.5 million Blu-ray 3D discs have been sold so far, but half of them were given away

There was also the news that 3D Blu-ray, despite the predictions of doom, has already sold some 3.5 million discs. Of course, half of these discs were given away with hardware, but with Avatar still not available for general sale on Blu-ray 3D, the number is still impressive. The main reason for the good result, and the good result of Blu-ray in general, is pricing. Blu-ray combos are now the best value packaging around usually, and with Blu-ray 3D “mega” combos becoming more popular (that is, the Blu-ray 3D version plus the Blu-ray 2D version, plus the DVD and Digital Copy versions), 3D is benefiting as a result.

What has decrease in value this week though is Netflix subscriptions, with price rises of up to 60% being announced. Netflix says the reason for the increase is due to their renewed focus on DVDs, by separating DVD and streaming into two separate, and cheaper plans (but at the same time, increasing the price of the combined plan). I suspect this price rise has to do with Netflix’s need to renegotiate digital rights for movies, with them having just agreed a new deal with Universal, and the need for a new deal with Sony. The rise in popularity of Netflix is obviously making studios feel they’ve not got the best deal they can, and they will want to squeeze as much out of Netflix as possible.

And before we move onto gaming, the news this week that new PS3s won’t be able to output Blu-ray in HD over component shouldn’t come as a surprise for those that read my news article on the Blu-ray analog sunset. Blu-ray’s copy protections system, AACS, mandated the removal of HD component support for all new players manufactured after January 1st 2011, and so the new PS3 model is just following the licensing agreement. The misinformation over HD being disabled even for games and streaming, is just that, misinformation.

Gaming

And in gaming, there’s actually not much, but I wanted to address the NPD issue again. The NPD report for June has just been released, and as been the case recently, it’s light on actual details, especially for hardware sales figures. But Microsoft and Nintendo have decided to released hardware sales figures for their consoles, once again leaving Sony as the holdout.

I’m hoping a leak will reveal the Sony PS3 numbers in the next few days, but even without the leak we can deduce that the PS3 probably didn’t do very well in June, despite Infamous 2 selling extremely well. First of all, the Xbox 360 was the most popular console with 507,000 units sold, while Nintendo revealed the sale of 273,000 Wiis. Microsoft’s statement mentioned their 507,000 was nearly twice as much as other home consoles, confirming the Wii number at least and pointing to the fact that the Wii was probably the second best selling console. And with Sony’s statement only pointing to the success of Infamous 2, with no acknowledgement of year-on-year growth for the PS3 (something they’ve been vocal about recently). In fact, Microsoft’s statement actually says the Xbox 360 is the only console to have year-on-year growth in June.

So the PS3 sold less than in June 2010 (304,800 units), and so the only issue is whether the PS3 outsold the Wii or not. Microsoft’s statement mentioned that the Xbox 360 held a “48% share of the overall current-generation console market share”, although it was unclear whether this referred to June or the whole of 2011 (it’s not lifetime sales, that’s for sure). Assuming it is for June, and for home based consoles only, then a little bit of maths puts the PS3 at 276,250 units (if 507,000 was 48%, extrapolate to 100%, then minus the known 360 and Wii numbers, to get the PS3 number).

But I hate guessing, so I’ll wait a few more days to see if there are any leaks to confirm my theory, but if not, then I’ll give Sony the benefit of the doubt for not mentioned they outsold the Wii, and use the estimated 276,000 figure.

That’s all for this news filled week. I suspect the next week will be very barren indeed news wise. See you next week.

Weekly News Roundup (19 June 2011)

Sunday, June 19th, 2011

The NPD stats for US video game sales for the month of May has been released, or rather, leaked, and so for one more month, the NPD analysis can be compiled. NPD’s releasing policy really is quite annoying. I can understand them not releasing the figures because commercial reasons, such as if they wanted to charge people access to them, but everyone knows they’re holding out due to industry pressure. The whole point of compiling sales data is to try and present an accurate and non subjective view of the health of the industry,  so for NPD to cave in to industry pressure because the industry doesn’t like the results, is, totally counter-productive. It’s like financial analysts only providing analysis that paints a rosy picture, because otherwise it might anger the companies and sectors they’re analysing, which then causes things like financial bubbles and eventual market collapse. Oh.

Anyway, analysts this time are the heroes for leaking the NPD data, and it’s just as well, because this week’s news is a bit on the light side. And it’s even rant worthy like last week either, so I think we can get through this pretty quickly (says the guy who then writes 2000 words).

CopyrightIn copyright news this week, we have a couple of stories, involving advertisers, Google, extradition and copyright trolls. You know, the usual lineup.

GroupM Logo

Advertising buyer GroupM has compiled a list of notorious piracy websites, except some are not notorious, and some aren't even piracy websites

Starting with advertisers, major online advertising buyer GroupM has had enough with web piracy, and wants to help out in any way they can. And GroupM, in no way pressured by their major clients who also just happen to be major copyright holders, clients like Warner Bros. and Universal Music, have decided to do what they can to stop the flow of money to piracy websites. And so they’ve compiled a ‘blacklist’ of websites that they will not purchase advertising from, a list which their major copyright holding clients helped to create (but no pressure from them, you see, they were just trying to be helpful). And to be fair, there’s nothing wrong with any of this. They’re a private company, and if they don’t want to do business with websites that their clients don’t like, then that’s their prerogative. But the problem with blacklists, and particularly ones created with little accountability, is that websites gets added to that list that really shouldn’t be there, and there’s no way for these websites to take corrective action, other than to perhaps sue GroupM. Which might just happen. So it was pretty interesting to find that, thanks to the alphabetized list, Archive.org was one of the first few websites listed out of the 2,000+ websites on the list. Disregarding the fact that Archive.org doesn’t really have much in terms of advertising, if any, the fact that one of the premier sources of legal content on the Internet has been added to the piracy blacklist is, ironic to say the least. I didn’t really go through the list in great detail, but towards the bottom, I did find wiisave.com listed. It was of interest to me because I recently visited the site, and I had no idea it was a one of the top 2,000 sources of piracy on the web, as the website only dealt with user uploads of Wii save files (I’m playing through Twilight Princess again, don’t ask me why). Now, if I could find two mistakes in less than a minute, I wonder how many other mistakes are there (luckily, Digital Digest isn’t on the list … yet).

The real problem I have is that there has been talk of the US government producing a similar list, in a similar fashion (with input from the copyright holders, which just means that they get to produce the entire list). And this would be much more worrying, if it happens. And after being black listed, domain seizure if probably not too far away, and if the website owner happens to be not in the United States, then they may even face extradition there to face charges. Which is what’s happening with the admin of TVShack, a link database that contained links to other websites that may or may not have provided copyright content without authorization. 23 year old British University student Richard O’Dwyer ran TVShack, and after having the domain name of the website seized twice by ICE (US Immigration and Customs Enforcement), he was then visited by UK police and unnamed American officials, after which he immediately shut down the website. And a couple of month later, ICE now wants to try the student in the US, filing an extradition order for the serious crime of having the wrong types of links on a website that doesn’t even exist any more. If this doesn’t sound like the kind of “crime” that would warrant extradition, considering the fact that something like this could easily be pursued in UK, then you’re right. The problem with pursuing the case in the UK though, from ICE’s perspective, if that ICE may not win. Past cases in the UK relating to websites link seems to suggest that O’Dwyer will probably escape legal sanctions if the case is tried in the UK, which is probably why ICE wants to try the case in the US. What I don’t get is why ICE is interfering in what most consider at best a civil action, and overseas as well (TVShack was never hosted in the US either, so there are jurisdiction issues as well). Why is US tax payer money being spent on something that’s of no real significance (because I’ve never even heard of TVShack before this), and possibly hundreds of thousands of dollars being spent on something that’s the responsibility of the *billion* dollar entertainment industry?

For me, this looks very much like a test case, because the PROTECT IP bill being debated in the US senate at the moment would make this kind of actions quite common, if it is passed, as it gives the Justice Department the right to pursue any website, even ones outside of the United States.

Staying in politics, Righthaven is back in the news again after facing several setbacks in their “lawsuits” against political websites. For whatever reason, a few month ago, Righthaven decided to do their “sue for settlement” thing on several political websites, including the well known Drudge Report and the Democractic Underground (DU), a forum for left leaning thinkers. We already know that Drudge settled the case, when Righthaven decided that just because a single unauthorized image was used on the website, that they were owed the entire domain name as penalty of the action. But the folks at DU decided to fight this thing, and guess what, they won. Not only did they win, the judge’s ruling could impact on *all* of Righthaven’s lawsuits, and Righthaven could even face severe sanctions for making “dishonest statements to the Court”. The summation was basically the judge calling Righthaven a “copyright troll”, in legal terms of course. And in a rare display of left and right solidarity against a common enemy, the DU ruling may just help a Tea Party group fight off their own Righthaven lawsuit too, even as the group counter-sues Righthaven for being basically, um, copyright trolls.

If the courts really want to prevent copyright trolling, they need to ensure that mere allegations of copyright abuse is not enough to extract settlement fees and definitely not enough to take the matter to court. Copyright infringement with no clear financial motive and clear financial gain, to me, is not copyright infringement. And the damage claim must be proportional to the financial loss incurred, so people shouldn’t have to face six figure punitive damages just for downloading a few 99 cent songs, for example. Certainly, damages against individuals and companies should be differentiated, because the financial motives are different.

Google Autocomplete

MAFIAA Fire's 'Gee! No evil!' add-on attempts to restore "piracy related" keywords to Google auto-suggest/recommend

And finally, we come to the Google news I mentioned above. Several months ago, Google, in a bid to placate the entertainment industry, started to filter out piracy related keywords in their auto-suggest and auto-complete features. So when you typed in “bitt”, you now no longer get “BitTorrent” as a recommended search phrase, now does Google Instant take you to the result page for this term, um, instantly (you have to type out the whole thing and press enter). Of course, you could argue that “BitTorrent” is hardly a piracy related keyword (since most people simply use the term “torrent”, since “BitTorrent” is most commonly referring to the “official” BitTorrent client). Long story short, the people that brought you the MAFIAA Fire Redirector add-0n for Firefox, which allows ICE seized domains to work again as if ICE had just wasted a huge chunk of tax payer money on nothing in a bid to provide corporate welfare to the billion dollar entertainment industry, has a new add-on. The MAFIAA Fire “Gee! No evil!” add-on restores the banned keywords on Google auto-suggest/complete/Instant, with “Gee! No evil!” obviously referring to Google’s slogan of “Do No Evil” (which is quickly turning into an ironic slogan for the company). It just highlights how stupid these anti-piracy things are, when millions of dollars of research, development and deployment can be neutralised with a free-addon that probably only took a couple of days to develop.

Not much happening in HD/3D, so we’ll skip straight to …

Gaming

… gaming! All the focus is still very much on the Wii U, as I think people are still struggling somewhat to come to terms with just how the Wii U will work. The recent focus, and I guess this could also fall under HD news as well, is that what the Wii’s optical disc drive will be capable of.

Wii U Console

The Wii U console will have a Blu-ray like disc drive, but won't even be able to play DVDs

We already know that it uses a 25GB single layer disc format, which very much sound like Blu-ray. But just like Wii discs are like DVDs, but not really DVDs, I suspect the Wii U disc format will be a similar modification to Blu-ray discs. Which then begs the question, will the Wii U be able to play DVDs and Blu-rays? The answer is, unfortunately, no – the Wii U won’t be able to play DVDs or Blu-ray movies. When asked why this was the case, Nintendo chief Satoru Iwata explained that the high cost of royalties was the reason, although with DVD players available as low $20, this excuse is a little bit hard to believe. Iwata also said that because everyone already has a standalone player, there’s not much point in having disc player functionality in the Wii U. It may be true that standalones are everywhere, and that it’s probably better to play movie discs on standalones, the sad fact is that there are so many devices these days that, if one can do multiple functions, it’s much better than having a billion different things all trying to connect to the TV. So if the Wii U could play DVD and Blu-ray, especially when the hardware to do it is already present, then it could mean getting rid of a DVD or Blu-ray player. But it’s very likely the Wii U will have digital movie streaming services like Netflix, so perhaps Nintendo sees the future in digital, not in optical.

That’s it for this week’s edition. See you next week.

Game Consoles – May 2011 NPD Sales Figure Analysis

Wednesday, June 15th, 2011

Thank the stars that through relatively good sales results, leaks and blind luck, that we have fairly accurate NPD sales stats for all three home consoles for the month of May 2011, and so our monthly NPD analysis continues for another month. With the PSN outage lasting for pretty much all of May (if you include the PSN Store outage), this month’s PS3 sales stats are particularly interesting to see if the outage has affected sales. E3’s major announcements have all been made, and so, it’s been a busy few weeks for gaming. For those that are new to this, this analysis looks at US video games sales figures compiled by NPD, unreleased by NPD due to pressure from the gaming companies, but then leaked by various sources, including gaming companies, if/when it suits them.

The figures for US sales in May 2011 are below, ranked in order of number of sales (May 2010 figures also shown, including percentage change):

  • Xbox 360: 270,000 (Total: 27.3 million; May 2010: 194,600 – up 39%)
  • Wii: 236,000  (Total: 35.7 million; May 2010: 334,900 – down 30%)
  • PS3: 175,000 (Total: 16.9 million; May 2010: 154,500 – up 13%)
NPD May 2011 Game Console US Sales Figures

NPD May 2011 Game Console US Sales Figures

NPD Game Console Total US Sales Figures (as of May 2011)

NPD Game Console Total US Sales Figures (as of May 2011)

My prediction from last month was:

I don’t really want to make a prediction next month, because if I’m right, and that the PS3 number falls due to the PSN outage, then Sony won’t release the figures, and we don’t have an NPD. Regardless, I think the Xbox 360 would still be the top selling console, so it’s just a matter of how much the PSN outage hurts the PS3, and how much the Wii price cut helps the Wii. The biggest game new releases for May are L.A. Noire, Brink and LEGO Pirates of the Caribbean.

I should have stuck to my guns and not made any predictions, because it turns out that PS3 sales held and even rose compared to last month, and also compared to a year ago, and so Sony had no qualms about releasing the figures. It was Nintendo, strangely, that was the holdout until good old reliable Michael Pachter came to the rescue again and released the Wii numbers in an investor report. The Wii price cut did help the Wii to record a sales rise compared to April, thanks to the price drop. Ironically, it was the Xbox 360 that was the only home based console to record a drop in sales compared to April, but it was also the console that recorded by far the highest year-on-year growth – go figure! As for games, I did make the right prediction here, and even made it in the right order in terms of the top 3 sellers for May.

Let’s start with the PS3 numbers, which was the most anticipated set. The PS3, while still coming last in terms of sales, did record a year-on-year growth of 13%, as well as a minor increase in sales compared to April. This seems to suggest the PSN outage did not affect sales all that much. Sony also stated that this was the 4th month in a row that PS3 sales saw double digit growth, which is impressive considering the shenanigans of the last two month with the PSN. Apart from touting exclusives, Sony spent much of the time showing off their new portable, PlayStation Vita, as well as a PS3 3D TV that allows two player game play without a split screen, turning the 3D technology and glasses for 2D use.

Xbox 360 sales did fall compared to April, but compared to May 2010, hardware sales rose 39%, the highest out of all the consoles. The reason for the monthly fall may be due to April’s better than average result (which was 60% higher than April 2010, double the usual average). Certainly, looking at these numbers, the Xbox 360 looks the most healthy. For E3, Kinect was the focus, as it has been the catalyst behind the recent good results. Microsoft is promising all future first party titles will feature some Kinect features, which will be interesting. They also launched Kinect Labs, which is the Kinect app store. Kinect is keeping the Xbox 360 on top, and so it makes sense for Microsoft to concentrate on this area, especially since with the announcement of Wii U, we know that it is the sole console doing the “no controllers” thing.

That leaves the Wii, which could become the most sickly of all the consoles, despite outselling the PS3. The reason I say this is that given the trend of decline, around 30% compared to a year ago, by this time next year, it will be the worst selling home console. The trend has been pretty consistent, and it doesn’t look like it’s slowing at all. Which probably explains why Nintendo was the only company to unveiled a new home based console at E3, the Wii U. With no firm release date other than “sometime in 2012”, the Wii will have to suffer for a bit longer, but by the time that the PS3 does finally overtake the console the Wii U surely won’t be far away from release, which is probably what Nintendo is counting on. Certainly, it makes sense that Nintendo would be the first company out of the three to launch a new console, despite not being the first company to release their current generation consoles (Microsoft’s Xbox 360 was launched a year earlier). The Wii hardware is the oldest out of the three consoles, and it needed a refresh most urgently. The Wii U will feature hardware that’s 50% more powerful than the PS3, which sounds really impressive until you realise that the PS3 hardware is about 6 years old already (developed in 2005, launched in 2006), so 50% may not even be enough, because the next Microsoft or Sony console could again leave the Wii trailing behind in the graphics stakes. But graphics are not that important any more, considering the 6 year old PS3 still looks fantastic even on a 1080p screen. As for the Wii U’s innovative control system, with the controller that also doubles as a second screen, it certainly is different. It could be the difference that makes it a hit, or it could be just too complicated for the casual gaming market that’s used to the Wii’s simplicity. With that said, what Nintendo is promising could already be possible on the PS3 and Xbox 360 if you listen closely to recent announcement. Back in February, Microsoft announced that future Windows Phones (and tablets, I’m guessing), would come with Kinect interactivity, and with Sony launching Vita, it could also link to the PS3 in the same way the Wii U controller links to on screen action. Sure, it wouldn’t be a nice and polished package as the Wii U, but if either company can demo something similar on existing hardware before the Wii U launches, then that will steal a lot of Nintendo’s thunder. For me though, the Wii U is as much about innovation, as it is about getting back in favor with the hardcore gaming crowd.

Onto games. As predicted, the month’s top 3 sellers were L.A. Noire, Brink and Lego Pirates of the Caribbean, in this order. Nothing else on the list was of any surprise, so it’s probably not worth the trouble to discuss game sales any further, other than to add that combined, games sales are down 19% compared to last year, and that only the Xbox 360 recorded an increase in software unit sales (but that increase was only 1%, so it’s hardly a great result). Fewer games were released in May though, and genre specific releases that were not as good as what was present last year. The steady decline in physical disc sales may be attributed to digital sales (especially on the PC, which is included in the NPD figures), and probably also due to increased competition from smartphone/tablet gaming – something that Nintendo is hoping to address via Wii U (Sony via Android gaming phones, and Microsoft via Windows Phone Xbox 360 connectivity). Here’s the full software sales chart for May:

  1. L.A Noire (Take 2, Xbox 360, PS3)
  2. Brink (Bethesda, Xbox 360, PS3, PC)
  3. Lego Pirates of the Caribbean (Disney, Wii, Xbox 360, NDS, PS3, 3DS, PSP, PC)
  4. Portal 2 (Electronic Arts, Xbox 360, PS3, PC)
  5. Mortal Kombat 2011 (Warner Bros. Interactive, PS3, Xbox 360)
  6. Call of Duty: Black Ops (Activision Blizzard, Xbox 360, PS3, Wii, NDS,PC)
  7. Zumba Fitness: Join the Party (Majesco, Wii, Xbox 360, PS3)
  8. NBA 2K11 (Take 2, Xbox 360, PS3, Wii, PS2, PSP, PC)
  9. Just Dance 2 (Ubisoft, Wii)
  10. Lego Star Wars III: The Clone Wars (LucasArts, Wii, NDS, Xbox 360, PS3, 3DS, PSP, PC)

Prediction time? No big changes, so the same hardware ordering as this month. The new top selling games will be Infamous 2 and Duke Nukem Forever (on a side note, ‘Forever’ really is such an apt name for the game considering the development time), but the overall top sellers will be some of the same titles as in May.

See you next month.

Weekly News Roundup (12 June 2011)

Sunday, June 12th, 2011

Quality over quantity, is something I firmly believe in. Which brings up to this week’s WNR, which is pretty light in terms of quantity of news items, but high in terms of quality of the mindless ranting that I can produce from these discussion worthy stories. So let’s not waste precious words on the intro, and get started with the roundup/rant, because this WNR is a fairly long one.

CopyrightStarting with copyright news, there’s one story that I really want to talk about, you know, the one that may just change the face of the music business, but for now, let’s quickly get through the other stuff.

United Nations

The UN thinks that 'three-strikes' is a human rights violation

You know it’s bad when the UN has to write a report just to call you jerks, but that’s exactly the kind of face slap France and the UK faced this week, when an UN report found that three-strikes anti-piracy legislation is a human rights violation. UN Special Rapporteur Frank La Rue found that cutting off people’s Internet connections, for piracy or any other reason, is tantamount to violating their rights of expression, because governments should not have the right to limit a specific kind of communication. The UN believes that nobody should be banned from using a communication medium, especially by the government, and certainly not for something as trivial such allegations (and they’re only allegations) of copyright infringement. While the Internet is very different, the principle is the same, in that the government should not be able to ban you from using the telephone, reading books and newspapers, listening to the radio or sending letters, as these would all be rights violations (note that whether you can afford to use any of these services, that’s a totally different matter – the point is that if you had the resources to do so, you should be able to do so, without the government interfering). The report made special mention of France’s three-strike laws, and the UK’s Digital Economy Act, so looks like France and the UK will join the list of human rights violators unless they change tract. It’s also a warning to any other country thinking of doing the same (I’m looking at you, Australia).

And it’s not just the UN that is attacking the bias in copyright legislation and legal actions, the legal establishment is taking action as well. The UK Solicitors Regulation Authority (SRA) has handed down its ruling against two former employees of Davenport Lyons who are considered pioneers of the mass copyright lawsuit schemes – and it’s guilty, on all six counts, of professional misconduct. David Gore and Brian Miller came up with the clever idea to extract pre-trial settlement fees by threatening suspected copyright infringers with massive penalties. But following many complaints, from any that said they were completely innocent, the SRA stepped in and a thorough investigation found the pair guilty of a lot of things. If targeting people based on flimsy evidence wasn’t enough (the SRA felt that IP address alone isn’t sufficient, in terms of proving copyright infringement – an important ruling), then targeting knowingly innocent people was a step too far. The pair could now face disbarment. The SRA’s decision is welcomed, but really, everyone knows that, at best, these types of practices are nothing but legal blackmail. Law firms should not be able to ask for pre-trial settlement fees if they have no intention to go to trial, period.

And also bad news for the US Copyright Group in their massive ‘The Expendables’ lawsuit, which now consists of 23,000 named and unnamed defendants. The judge in the case, having earlier allowed the USCG to issue subpoenas to get more information about the defendants, is reconsidering, and is beginning to see the whole thing as “inappropriate and a waste of scarce judicial resources”. And that’s the sensible conclusion that all judges should come to, when it’s plain as daylight that firms like the USCG are out to make money, with almost zero intentions of actually going court. Please refer to the last sentence of the previous paragraph.

iTunes Match

iTunes Match will either make buying music obsolete, or it will do absolutely nothing, depending on who you talk to

And of course, we come to the main course. Steve Jobs’ “one more thing” at the Apple Developer Conference has the whole Internet both excited and confused, with some really angry as well. The whole iCloud thing is fairly standard, but iTunes Match promises to be something else, or nothing at all, depending on who you believe. The problem is that we just don’t have enough information, but based on what we’ve heard so far, anyone could be right. So what is iTunes Match? Well, basically, it’s an addition to iTunes and iCloud that scans your hard-drive for songs, and regardless of whether these were purchased from iTunes, or elsewhere, or even pirated, iTunes Match will try to match the song to one of the 18 million songs in iTunes, and then from that point onwards, you will be able to download the 256 Kbps iTunes legal version of the same song for free on all your iDevices (and if the song doesn’t exist, you can upload your local copy to iCloud). That’s right, even if you have some crappy 128 Kbps MP3 of a song you copied from a friend who downloaded from LimeWire, you’ll now get a clean, high quality (relatively speaking) version of the song from iTunes. After you pay the $25 per year fee, of course. And best of all, all the major labels, all four of them, seems to be fully supportive of Apple’s plans (no doubt because they get 70% of the $25 annual fee).

As so the Internet nearly exploded, with some calling this a piracy amnesty, the term “music laundering” was mentioned, while others feel that it’s $25 to access music you already had, which is totally pointless. The truth is probably somewhere amongst the mix.

Before we get to the pros and cons, let’s just go through how iTunes Match will work, or at least how I think it will work based on the current information. So you start iTunes Match, and it scans the songs on your hard-drive. Now, I doubt it will be as simple as an ID3 tag match, because ID3 tags are not exactly accurate. What I think will happen is an actual audio match, like how the SoundHound app works, which I think should be the most accurate way of matching tracks. And if the song does exist on iTunes, the song is “uploaded” to your iCloud account (and it does not count as quota either), or rather, Apple simply allows you permission to download the song using your iCloud account, and you now get to download (not stream) the same song on all your iDevices, as if you had manually uploaded the 256 Kbps iTunes downloaded AAC to your iCloud account.

So now you know how it works, let’s get some of the misconceptions out of the way. Some are saying this is a Trojan Horse, that by scanning your files, Apple will send all the info to the RIAA so they can sue the crap out of you. This is not going to happen, simply because there does not yet exist a tool that can accurately tell the difference between a DRM-free legal track, a track you ripped from your legally purchased CD, and one that you downloaded from the Internet illegally. First of all, the illegally downloaded track may very well be a DRM-free track that somebody else uploaded, minus some tracking tags perhaps. Or it could be just a CD rip that someone had uploaded, and there’s no way to tell if it’s your CD rip, or someone else’s. Another popular one is that iTunes Match will delete all the matched songs from your hard-drive, thus destroying your precious pirated music collection. Ridiculous really, because what’s to stop you making a backup of the songs before you “iTunes match” it? And why would Apple bother when, immediately after deleting all your shoddy pirated MP3s, they immediately give you pristine HQ AAC copies to download, copies that are also DRM free. As for making your iTunes Match downloaded AACs stop working once you stop paying the $25, not going to happen either, because the tracks are DRM free, and because they’re downloads, not streaming, you can keep downloaded copies forever, on multiple devices, after you stop paying the $25.

So it iTunes Match really a godsend for pirated music collectors, does iTunes Match really give you the iTunes download version of songs even if your original was a pirated track? Yes it does, absolutely. And is this a piracy amnesty or music laundering? It depends.

It depends on information that’s just not available yet, and the differences are very subtle between the “Yes” answer, and the “No” answer, and it’s more of a legal and moral position, than anything else. What do I mean? Well, let’s take someone who decides that iTunes Match is a piracy amnesty, music laundering service, so they go and download 300 pirated songs every month. First of all, the act of downloading pirated songs is still illegal, and iTunes Match doesn’t even come into play here, so you may still get caught and get fined. But let’s assume you’ve found a way to download without being detected, okay, you run iTunes Match on those 300 songs, and voila, record label approved iTunes downloads on your iPod.

iTunes 10

Buying a song from iTunes and downloading a copy from iTunes Match may be two very different transactions, with different legal rights

This is where it gets tricky. See, if the iTunes Match downloads come with the same license as a regular purchased iTunes song, then yes, you’ve just turned pirated songs without licenses into iTunes downloads with licenses, and laundering is complete. However, if iTunes Match merely provide a license to download the matched song, with no proof of purchase included, then no laundering has been done. You still don’t have a proof of purchase for your pirated songs, and you never will. Not that anyone really cares about proof of purchase or anything.

As for the argument that iTunes Match helps people to pirate songs, well, that doesn’t really hold true either, as people need to have pirated before they use iTunes Match. Similarly for the argument that iTunes Match allows people to enjoy more songs than what could otherwise be had for $25, iTunes Match can only allow you to download copies of songs you already have, and if you already have those songs (pirated or legal), then you could already enjoy those songs, so iTunes Match doesn’t really “add” to the enjoyment in any way.

And as for whether iTunes Match will encourage people to buy less, it depends on why people buy songs the first place. Those morally bound to buy them will still do so, same as those who buy music to support the artists (but you’d be better off going to see their concert, as they get more of your money that way). And basically, anyone already buying legal music probably won’t be swayed either way by iTunes Match.

For those that do pirate a lot, iTunes Match may make you feel a little bit better about your activities, with no real legal protection (if, as I assume, you don’t get a license/proof of purchase with your iTunes Matched downloads), and the convenience of having everything done through iTunes (if you think that is a convenience), and all for the low low price of $25 per year. That’s (70% of) $25 more than what the record labels would have gotten before, so for them, it’s a bonus. The only real problem could be that, because of existing artist licensing deals, they may miss out on any share of the $25, so if you want to support the artists, this is not the worst way to do so.

So there you have it, Apple iTunes Match explained. Clear as mud.

High Definition

In HD and 3D news, nothing much again, but NPD has a new research paper out that says Blu-ray penetration, after the first five years of the format, has reached 15%. If this sounds a little bit underwhelming, perhaps it is, because DVDs at the same point had a much higher penetration level.

But Blu-ray is not DVD, and Blu-ray has to work a lot harder for every percent, since it’s a much more subtle upgrade to DVD than DVD was for VHS. It’s like going from horse cart to a car, and then going from a 1990’s car to a brand new model. What I found interesting in the report was that half of the people wanting to buy a Blu-ray player in the next six month wanted one because it could deliver digital content, because all Blu-ray players can do it now. So in a way, Blu-ray is helping optical disc formats stay relevant in the Internet age, and at the same time, it’s helping its own demise by helping to improve the penetration of digital delivery hardware. It’s very much a bridging format, between the optical and digital, but just because there’s a bridge, it doesn’t mean everyone will cross over it, and I still firmly support disc formats because, call me old fashioned, I still like to have something to hold in my hand and also something to display on non-virtual bookshelves.

Gaming

This is a big week for gaming, thanks to E3, but as this is not really a gaming website/blog, I’m going to skip most of E3’s announcement, because I just don’t feel like making a big deal out of the next Batman game or whatever.

But that doesn’t mean there aren’t some announcements that are too big to ignore. Of course, the big one being the announcement by Nintendo of their new console, but I shall ignore this for a moment while I talk about the other game company’s announcements.

Microsoft’s E3 was all about Kinect, and they showed demos of the Star Wars Kinect game, which looks more like an on-rails game, which is kind of disappointing, but probably not unexpected. Microsoft surprised us last year with the Xbox 360 “Slim”, but this year’s “surprise” was less significant, something about Live TV that’s not going to make its way to Australia (although YouTube integration should be helpful, but it’s  hardly unique). Microsoft did unveil Kinect Labs, which is like an app market for Kinect, and it now includes a few free “gadgets”, including one that tries to make a life-like avatar, or one that turns inanimate objects into something that comes alive on the screen (it’s not as good as it sounds). With the Kinect SDK coming soon, launching Kinect Labs is a solid step. As for full Kinect games, Microsoft promises more on the way, including Mass Effect 3, which will allow you to speak the lines of Commander Sheppard as a way to choose dialogue options (of course, you could just select and click – and since the character itself always elaborates on the chosen dialogue, speaking out the choice may feel a bit strange, like saying everything twice). As for why Kinect is needed for simple voice recognition, when a headset is all that’s required, BioWare says it’s all to do with the Kinect system, where developers don’t need to do much when it comes to doing voice recognition as it’s all handled by the Kinect hardware/software combo. Microsoft even promised that all first party games will come with some Kinect interaction, which is something that I felt was the right thing to do back when Microsoft were saying they would only make games that could be played entirely with Kinect and nothing else. With EA announcing FIFA will support Kinect, I’m looking forward to taking and saving penalties by kicking and diving around the living room.

PlayStation TV

PlayStation TV can let two players play on the same screen without a split screen, using special glasses based on 3D technology

For Sony, other than apologising to everyone over and over again, E3 was about the Next Generation Portable, now called PlayStation Vita (vita means “life” in Latin and Italian, of course). Sony have already announced a lot about NGP/Vita, so there were no big surprises. What I found interesting was the PS3 branded TV. What was interesting is that it allows two players to play on the same TV *without* a split screen, and that’s totally possible using the 3D TV in a 2D way. 3D works by displaying two images at the same time (well, not really, but that’s what our eyes perceive when looking at the picture without the glasses), with the glasses separating the image into ones for the left and right eyes. The same principle can be used to display two images, one for player one, and one for player 2, and if the glasses instead of separating the image for each eye, simply separated the image for different players, then you have two player gaming without split screen. Of course, without glasses, it will look like a right mess. Theoretically, with the right glasses, almost any 3D TV can be made to do the same. Whether it’s better to wear glasses and have a full screen picture, or to not wear glasses and have a split screen, that’s an entirely different debate.

You can read more about the Microsoft and Sony announcements in this news post.

Wii U

The Wii U promises to do a lot ... maybe too much!

And then there’s Nintendo’s announcement. The Wii U will be the Wii’s formal successor. I’m not going to get into the debate about the name, because everyone though the Wii was stupid, and it is, but it didn’t really matter. What does matter is the humongous thing that Nintendo calls a controller, and it’s certainly been a point of debate. By having a 6.2″ touch-screen on a controller, and with the controller’s screen able to interact with the main screen, or even operate independently, it does add to the versatility. For example, you can play simple board games on the controller without even turning on the TV, or use the controller to display additional gaming information à la the dual DS screens, and with Nintendo promising minimal lag between the main screen and the controller screen, it can even be used as part of the game, for example using the controller’s screen as a binocular to zoom in on the action, where the main screen still stays the same (making sniper game play a bit easier).

But as Nintendo later conceded, perhaps too much was made of the controller itself, and not enough on the console. The Wii U console will be more powerful than the Xbox 360 and PS3, considering it is using hardware that’s years newer than what’s in those other consoles, and so with the gaming line-up, it seems Nintendo is firmly moving back into the ‘hardcore’ gaming sector, after straying perhaps a bit too far with the original Wii. That should help Nintendo, because the Wii U is still very “family friendly”, and even if you don’t like the new controller, all old Wii accessories will still be supported, as well as full backwards compatibility for Wii games.

And this could also be perhaps Nintendo’s biggest problem. The Wii was simple, clearly focused at one sector of gamers, but the Wii U tries to do much more, and it is this versatility and ambition that could ultimate sink it as a console. Everyone can imagine what you can do with a Wii-mote, and it was perfectly demonstrated by just one play of Wii Sports, but it’s much harder to imagine what you could do with the Wii U controller. Plus, with Nintendo intent on making the Wii U a hardcore gamer’s console too, as well as a console for the smartphone/tablet gaming generation, and maybe even taking on the portable consoles market that’s already dominated by their own DS, it may be trying to do too much with the same console. Or it could work out great, who knows.

Alright, that’s more than enough writing for this week, I just hope it’s not a long and laborious read. Well, not more than usual anyway. See you next week.

Game Consoles – April 2011 NPD Sales Figure Analysis

Saturday, May 14th, 2011

We’re back! Well, for this month anyway. Following last month’s lack of PS3 numbers because Sony didn’t want people laughing at the fact that PS3 sales was actually negative for the month (Not Intended To Be A Factual Statement), the monthly NPD analysis had to be temporarily suspended. But we’re back, stronger than ever this month (erm, sort of), largely thanks to PS3 numbers not being so miserable that Sony decided to release some numbers again. It still didn’t really matter because the Xbox 360 still solidly outsold the PS3, but to be fair to Sony, given the month they’ve just had, everything looks like good news these days. For those that are new to this, this analysis looks at US video games sales figures compiled by NPD, unreleased by NPD due to pressure from the gaming companies, but then leaked by various sources, including gaming companies, if/when it suits them.

The figures for US sales in April 2011 are below, ranked in order of number of sales (April 2010 figures also shown, including percentage change):

  • Xbox 360: 297,000 (Total: 27 million; April 2010: 185,400 – up 60%)
  • PS3: 204,300 (Total: 16.7 million; April 2010: 180,800 – up 13%)
  • Wii: 172,000  (Total: 35.4 million; April 2010: 277,200 – down 38%)
NPD April 2011 Game Console US Sales Figures

NPD April 2011 Game Console US Sales Figures

NPD Game Console Total US Sales Figures (as of April 2011)

NPD Game Console Total US Sales Figures (as of April 2011)

My prediction from last month was:

I didn’t make a prediction because I didn’t do a NPD analysis last month because of those ******* at Sony (possibly)

Note that some of the figures above are extrapolated, and somewhat based on guestimates. For example, I gave Sony the benefit of the doubt and gave the PS3 350,000 units sold for last month, so I could have an estimate for the total sales figures graph. And this month, Sony only said that the PS3 grew by “nearly” 13% compared to April 2010, and so I again gave them the benefit of the doubt and made the growth exactly 13%. But these figures have always been rounded up and down, and so they’re not that accurate, but accurate enough in terms of providing a general feel of what’s going on, allowing “analysts” like myself to extrapolate the data and make things up, basically.

So the Xbox 360 was the winner again, just like last month (the PS3 numbers weren’t present, but the Xbox 360 and Wii numbers were present, and presented in the gaming section of the April 24 edition of the Weekly News Roundup). In fact, Xbox 360 sales are 60% up compared to the same month last year, which is quite a result. This makes for the best month-to-month-a-year-ago result since last November, when the Xbox 360 recorded 67% growth. It’s hard to explain where the result comes from, but (and this is where the “make things up” thing comes in), with software sales higher than in April 2010 thanks to some a-list releases, and most of them, while being multi-platform, sold better on the Xbox 360 than any other console, and this probably helped hardware sales as well. Microsoft also said that Kinect sales were promising, with Michael Jackson: The Experience the pick of the Kinect new releases for the month.

And as mentioned earlier, the PS3 numbers were good enough for Sony to release figures for this month. This time last year, the Xbox 360 and PS3 were neck and neck (with the Wii way ahead in the lead … more on that later), but the Xbox 360 managed to outsell the PS3 comfortably this month, despite the PS3’s “near” 13% growth figure. Sony would point to this figure showing that the PSN outage for the last ten days of April did not really have a profound effect on sales, but we’ll only know the full scale of the damage in May’s NPD (no doubt if the numbers don’t go well, Sony will withhold the figures again, so we may never find out), when it is revealed that millions of PSN account details and some credit card numbers were leaked. Various sources are already posting information which shows increasing number of PS3 to Xbox 360 console trade-ins at retailers, an increasing number of gamers switching pre-orders from PS3 versions to Xbox 360 versions (for those that presumably owns both consoles), and Sony’s share of game sales dropping from 37% from before the PSN outage, to only 21% with the most recent data.

The Wii was the worst performer out of the home based consoles this month, with sales being 38% down compared to the same period last year, a somewhat consistent decline. Which is probably why the Wii has just received a price cut, and that Nintendo plans to announced the Wii 2 at E3 in less than a month’s time. Nintendo’s other consoles, including the new 3Ds, aren’t doing much better though, with the original DS once again outselling the more expensive 3Ds.

For games, Mortal Kombat was the best seller, followed by Portal 2. Mortal Kombat sold 900,000 copies on the two platforms, the Xbox 360 and PS3, on which it was released, and the Xbox 360 version most likely led the PS3 version in sales (as otherwise Sony would have mentioned that the top selling game of the month did best on their platform). Same with Portal as well, according to GfK-ChartTrack, despite the PS3 version having several exclusives, including a free PC version of the game, plus cross-platform gaming (according to released figures, the Xbox 360 version outsold the PS3 version by about a 1.5-to-1 margin). Michael Jackson The Experience also made the top 10, despite only the PS3 Move and Xbox 360 Kinect SKUs of the game being new in April (the other SKUs were released ages ago). Another game that didn’t make the top 10, but would have if a bundled version had counted as software, as opposed to accessories, sales was SOCOM 4. The “Full Deployment” bundle consisted of a Move controller and the Sharpshooter accessory, and had this bundle been included in the software numbers, SOCOM 4 would have made the top 10. As it is, the bundle was the highest ranking new accessory for the month. Here’s the full software sales chart for April:

  1. Mortal Kombat 2011 (Warner Bros. Interactive, Xbox 360, PS3)
  2. Portal 2 (Electronic Arts, Xbox 360, PS3, PC)
  3. Lego Star Wars III: The Clone Wars (LucasArts, Xbox 360, PS3, Wii, NDS, 3DS, PC)
  4. Call of Duty: Black Ops (Activision Blizzard, Xbox 360, PS3, Wii, NDS,PC)
  5. Tiger Woods PGA Tour 12: The Masters (Electronic Arts, Xbox 360, PS3, Wii)
  6. Crysis 2 (Electronic Arts, Xbox 360, PS3, PC)
  7. Just Dance 2 (Ubisoft, Wii)
  8. Michael Jackson The Experience (Ubisoft, Xbox 360, PS3, Wii, NDS, PSP)
  9. Pokemon White Version (Nintendo, NDS)
  10. NBA 2K11 (Warner Bros. Interactive, Xbox 360, PS3)

I don’t really want to make a prediction next month, because if I’m right, and that the PS3 number falls due to the PSN outage, then Sony won’t release the figures, and we don’t have an NPD. Regardless, I think the Xbox 360 would still be the top selling console, so it’s just a matter of how much the PSN outage hurts the PS3, and how much the Wii price cut helps the Wii. The biggest game new releases for May are L.A. Noire, Brink and LEGO Pirates of the Caribbean.

See you next month, hopefully.