Archive for the ‘High Definition (Blu-ray/HD DVD/4K)’ Category

Blu-ray: The State of Play – May 2012

Wednesday, May 9th, 2012

Welcome to another edition of our annual Blu-ray sales analysis. Since our last analysis, we’ve had the milestone releases of Star Wars (always an important milestone for any video format), WB finally putting us out of our misery by releasing the Extended cut of Lord of the Rings and the conclusion of the Harry Potter saga. With Internet based streaming more popular than ever, and with home video revenue stabilizing after a turbulent couple of years, it will be interesting to have a look at how Blu-ray has done this past year.

The data used in this analysis derives from our weekly updates, based on figures released by Home Media Magazine. Some of the historical figures you’ll see have also been adjusted, due to slight tweaking of the metrics used by HMM to create these sets of data, although the changes have been very subtle and does not change the bigger picture in any way.

We’ll structure this analysis in pretty much the same way as the last one, although there are a couple of new graphs introduced in this analysis, focusing on actual raw revenue figures for Blu-ray.

The first set of graphs show Blu-ray market share through the four year period that I have tracked them, with the release milestones pointed out.

Blu-ray Sales Percentage - 4 May 2008 to 21 April 2012 - Click to see larger version

Blu-ray Sales Percentage – 4 May 2008 to 21 April 2012 – Click to see larger version

A graph that’s always getting wider, here we can see the 4 year period in which Blu-ray market share has been tracked. Market share is defined as the percentage of sales belonging to Blu-ray compared to all discs sales (which includes both Blu-ray and DVD). So for example, the Blu-ray market share figure as of 21th April 2012 is 26.08%, it means that this percentage of all disc sales belonged to the Blu-ray format (and inversely, this suggests DVD market share is at 73.92%). The last of these above 4 distinct graphs is the last 52 weeks period that this analysis will be talking about. One thing you’ll notice about these set of graphs, compared to the same set last year, is the new vertical scale being used – this is to take into account a new record for Blu-ray market share, set in the weeks following the release of Star Wars and during the week that The Lion King was released. The record now stands at 40.22%, up from the 28% that was set in the last 52 week period (by another Disney release, Beauty and the Beast – of course, both Disney releases inject a kind of performance enhanced doping into the Blu-ray stats, as these were exclusively released as Blu-ray combos and all sales were credited to Blu-ray, even though the DVD version was included in the package). What this graph shows is that the performance of Blu-ray market share is still very much dependent on specific releases, with popular catalog releases such as Star Wars and the Disney classic often being better for market share, than say major hits (with the exceptions being the kind of movie Blu-ray is made for: action, Sci-Fi and anything that benefits from the improved visuals and aurals).

The next set of graphs show the market share as one continuous graph, as well as the growth rate when comparing one week’s market share with the market share figure of the same week a year ago (so if week 32 in 2010 had a Blu-ray market share figure of 15%, and week 32 in 2011 had a market share figure of 20%, the growth would be: (20 – 15) / 15 => 33%).

Blu-ray Market Share - May 2008 to April 2012

Blu-ray Market Share – May 2008 to April 2012

Blu-ray Market Share Growth - May 2008 to April 2012

Blu-ray Market Share Growth – May 2008 to April 2012

The upwards trajectory of Blu-ray market share is pretty evident in the first graph above, but the slowing down of the growth is also pretty evident in the second graph. Last year this time, the trend graph stopped at just above 20%, while a year later, it stops just above 25%. The addition of an annual addition of 5% to the market share has been repeated for the last 3 years already, with a slight slowdown, so chances are, we’ll be looking at Blu-ray at an average of closer to 30% this time next year. The lack of really enticing new releases in the last couple of month hasn’t helped market share growth, and growth was always going to slow as Blu-ray market share approaches the magic 50% mark (when passed, it will signal Blu-ray’s “victory” over DVD as the dominant home video format).

Below is a new graph I’ve introduced to this analysis, and it shows Blu-ray growth, but for raw revenue, rather than market share.

Blu-ray Revenue Growth - May 2008 to April 2012

Blu-ray Revenue Growth – January 2010 to April 2012

With less data being available than the equivalent graph for Blu-ray market share, the trend here is harder to see, and more volatile. But revenue is always a bit more volatile, as you can see the violent spikes indicate the a major release milestone for the format. The effect of the recent drought of A-list releases can be seen quite clearly towards the end of the above graph, as revenue growth drops below 0% (ie. a revenue decline). As a comparison, revenue growth for the first 16 weeks of 2011 averaged 33.24%, while for the same period in 2012, it only averaged 14.45%.

The last two set of graphs shows a comparison of weekly market share figures with the same figure from a year ago, and the same comparison but with revenue figures.

Blu-ray Sales Market Share: 2008/11 versus 2009/12 Comparison (May to April)

Blu-ray Sales Market Share: 2008/11 versus 2009/12 Comparison (May to April)

Blu-ray Sales Revenue: 2010/11 versus 2001/12 Comparison (January to April)

Blu-ray Sales Revenue: 2010/11 versus 2011/12 Comparison (January to April)

The slowing growth of Blu-ray shows up in the above graphs as the gap between the same weeks, a year apart, shrinks, and even reverses, depending on the calibre of the release in the two compared weeks. What is interesting is that the revenue graph shows the seasonal nature of home video revenue, with the holiday period having a “tent-pole” effect for the rest of the year. The difference between the top market share graph and the bottom revenue graph (where growth appears a bit more evident with market share than with revenue) is due to the fact that DVD revenue has shrunk during the same period, which has allowed Blu-ray market share to rise, without needing a similar rise in revenue terms. The decline in DVD, therefore, is not just solely due to the emergence of Blu-ray, but also other external factors (mostly Internet based digital distribution).

The conclusion is therefore very expected. Blu-ray revenue and market share continues to grow steadily, albeit at a slowing pace, but it will be the calibre of releases that will determine when Blu-ray will take the next step forwards towards becoming the dominant home video disc format. 2011 was a relatively weak year at the box office (and hence, the late 2011 and early 2012 releases being somewhat average), but 2012 already looks like a bumper year for movies thanks to the likes of The Hunger Games, The Avenger, Prometheus, The Dark Knight Rises and the next Bond movie, Skyfall, it bodes well for the second half of 2012, and the start of 2013, for Blu-ray.

Weekly News Roundup (6 May 2012)

Sunday, May 6th, 2012

Hope you had a good Star Wars Day on May the 4th. Unfortunately, I totally forgot about it, as otherwise it would have been a great occasion to finally watch my Star Wars Blu-rays, which I had been saving until my TV problem had been solved (which it was, last week).

You know how three of Digital Digest’s URL were removed from Google due to a bogus DMCA complaint? Nearly 6 weeks later, all three of the removed URLs have finally been reinstated. It could have happened a bit sooner, but Google messed up my first counter-notification and failed to process it, forcing me to re-submit one about 2 weeks ago, which was finally processed this week. Luckily, none of the URLs were bringing in a lot of traffic from Google to cause any major disruptions, but it could very well turned out to be an expensive problem, but not expensive enough to actually warrant getting  lawyers involved!

A pretty good news week, not that all the news was good news, but just that there were plenty of interesting news items to write about, so let’s get started.

Copyright

We start with news of the blocking of The Pirate Bay in the UK, something that had been coming admittedly, but the required court order was finally handed down this week.

A good number of UK ISPs will have to start blocking access to The Pirate Bay within the next couple of weeks, with some ISPs having already activated their filters. The filtering appears to be in the form of both a DNS filter, and an IP filter. The DNS filter will make sure typing thepiratebay.org (or thepiratebay.se) will no longer resolve to the correct IP address for the website, and the IP filter will ensure that even if you knew the IP address, you won’t be able to access the website.

VPNReactor

A VPN service is a worth investment if you value your privacy, or want to access geo-locked legal content, but there are also free (albeit limited) alternatives such as VPNReactor

Of course, this kind of filtering is easily circumvented. By changing to a un-filtered DNS server, such as the ones provided for free by OpenDNS or even Google, it will allow the TPB domains to fully resolve. But this doesn’t really help in the case where the IP address has also been filtered, and so you’ll have to rely on VPNs or proxies to get your TBP fix. Generally speaking, using VPNs for BitTorrent is a good idea these days, as even if you can access TPB and get the Magnet links needed, chances are, your BitTorrent activities (for popular torrents) are still being monitored by one or more agencies (some to involve you in a mass lawsuit, others as part of ‘graduated response’ monitoring regimes). With the right VPN service though, your BitTorrent speed shouldn’t be affected too much, while your activities should now be anonymized. But do check to make sure what the VPN service’s privacy policies are, as some openly state they will hand over server logs to third parties upon request, which kind of makes it pointless if privacy is your biggest concern. VPNs also have the added bonus of allowing you to access geo-locked content from places like Hulu and Netflix, if they offer the option to choose the country where your “fake” IP address comes from.

The news of the block made headlines around the world, and as such, actually drove more traffic to The Pirate Bay. And with plenty of articles and blogs covering the possible solutions to the block, I wonder if all this has done is to actually make more people aware of TPB. And rather than scare them into not using BitTorrent, it may have only helped to push them to make the extra effort to conceal their activities. It could end all rather badly for future anti-piracy efforts if the trend towards VPNs and other anonymizers continue.

And ISPs are also well aware that these kinds of filtering will largely be pointless, and many are now calling on the entertainment industry to find other more effective ways to combat piracy, rather than scapegoating everything on ISPs. A better way, according to ISP Virgin Media, would be to offer more “compelling legal alternatives”. They specifically named Spotify, as the lawsuit that resulted in the blocking was a music industry led one, but it applies just the same to home video. And as you’ll see later in this WNR, consumers have already started to embrace these “compelling legal alternatives” by voting with their hard earned cash.

There's no place like home T-shirt

An IP address is not a person, just like the owner of a phone account is not necessarily the person that made a specific phone call, a judge says

A very interesting legal development happened across the Atlantic too this week, as a New York judge finally took the time to write a detailed ruling on why IP address evidence by themselves are not sufficient to identify individuals. Judge Gary Brown used the same phone account analogy that I’ve used in the past, but hit the bullseye by comparing the use of this type of IP address evidence to an individual who pays the telephone bill being linked with a specific phone call. Judge Brown also raised another interesting point regarding the widespread use of Wi-Fi routers, but not in the traditional “hijacking” scenario where unauthorized use of your Wi-Fi connection may have been responsible for the infringing actions. What the popularity of Wi-Fi does mean, according to Judge Brown, is that it proves more and more authorized individuals are sharing the same Internet account, and this again makes it hard to ascertain just who actually performed the action that broke the law. The copyright groups will argue that, as the owner of the connection, they are always liable for how it’s used even if they’re not at all aware of how it is being used (say goodbye to Wi-Fi hotspots), but again, this doesn’t seem to apply to phone accounts (otherwise, payphones wouldn’t exist because the owners of the payphones would be liable for all illegal activities being conducted on these phones).

I believe the the lack of a deeper understanding of technology by the judiciary has been responsible for the misuse of IP address as evidence, something that copyright groups have been more than willing to exploit. But as the technical proficiency of judges improve, I think we’ll see a lot of these accepted notions challenged. For one, I would like a further examination of the role data transfer and usage plays in infringement, in that how much data must be downloaded (and uploaded) before infringement actually occurs, and how the data has been used. For example, if I attempted to download an infringing file , say from RapidShare, and that download stopped at 95% (thus making the file completely useless), have I committed copyright infringement? And if I make a successful download but never use the file, am I still liable (even though I’ve done no harm to anyone). For uploads, if I only uploaded a single bit of data to a BitTorrent swarm (let’s say, a single zero), am I just as guilty as someone who’s been seeding for weeks?

If Hollywood want to continue their obsession with finding a legal solution to the web piracy problem, instead of focusing on innovation, then these are the issues that need to be cleared up.

High Definition

There are some encouraging signs that, despite the piracy problem, home video revenue is on the rise again, and it’s largely thanks to the Internet.

The biggest rise came in the area of subscription streaming, with an amazing 545.5% increase in revenue in just a year. Of course, a lot of it comes from disc rental subscribers transitioning to digital, and disc rental revenue was expectedly down, but all this shows, and it’s something that I alluded to earlier in this post, is that consumers are making the choice towards streaming. It could be because it’s convenient, or it’s good value considering how much content you have access to “on tap”, but probably because of both, and it shows that people are happy to use the Internet for legal videos, even if it costs money.

The only thing streaming can’t do effectively right now is to offer ubiquitous high quality HD streaming. The minimum broadband requirement for semi-decent HD that you’d want to watch on your 60″ TV seems to hover around the 10 Mbps mark, and while that’s achievable for many, it also means that a large chunk of their connection has been saturated, and by just a single video stream. Here in Australia, those with 10 Mbps or higher are probably in the minority. Until most homes are capable of receiving at least two such streams at the same time without saturating connections, I think Blu-ray will still have to carry the majority of “HD bits” being delivered to people’s homes. And accordingly, the latest sales results still shows Blu-ray sales rising. With the decline of DVD sales also slowing down, it has allowed the HD format to offset most of the revenue losses (overall, revenue was only down 1% from a year ago for disc based sales).

So to make HD streaming, and possibly even Blu-ray quality streaming, a reality, what we need now is a faster Internet network for everyone. One of the ways to deliver it is via high speed fiber (or fibre, depending on where you’re from), and Google has been building fiber towns all over the US in anticipation. Even in Australia, our government is committed to connecting 93% of homes to fiber, with speeds up to 1Gbp. Even at 100 Mbps, it is still more than enough to stream two full Blu-rays. So you’d think, given the trend towards Internet based video streaming, Big Content should be rejoicing at the advancements in network speeds that will allow for the continued evolution of web based streaming. But once again, the piracy issue turns out to be the one that movie studios are most concerned about.

NBN Fibre Rollout

Here in Australia, the government is rolling out high speed fibre broadband to 93% of households, something that has Hollywood scared (photo credits: NBN Blog)

The MPAA supported AFACT group here in Australia have already issued dire warnings in regards to the country’s fiber project, about what pirates could be doing on super fast networks. And so instead of focusing on the opportunities (the same opportunities that the likes of Google, Apple and Amazon will probably exploit to their, and the consumer’s, advantage), the focus has been on new legislation to curb piracy on the still unfinished network. This week, Google’s fiber town projects have also attracted the same kind of fear and uncertainty from Hollywood’s major studios.

Now, being afraid that a pirate might be able to download an entire Blu-ray disc every 4 minutes over a 1Gbps connection is a perfectly reasonable response. But the thing is that, however scared Hollywood is at this prospect, high speed Internet is coming to people’s homes with or without their support, and no amount of fear-mongering is going to stop it. So instead of trying to DRM the whole Internet and legislate it to death, why not take a breath, calm down, and try to see the possibilities – that instead of fretting about a pirated Blu-ray disc being downloaded in 4 minutes,  how about seeing the opportunity to offers consumers the ability to buy, stream and even download and burn their own Blu-ray discs in a nice and easy to use service that’s at a reasonable price, and beat the pirates at their own game.

But that would be too easy, wouldn’t it, so expect more pressure on the legislature to help “protect” the entertainment industry from progress, as the fiber (and next-gen 4G) rollout continues.

Well, that was the week that was. Hope you enjoyed this edition of the WNR. See you in 7.

Weekly News Roundup (22 April 2012)

Sunday, April 22nd, 2012

So, are you underwhelmed or what? Of course, I’m talking about the new re-designed Digital Digest homepage (and a couple of other section home pages, as well as the top navigational bar), that “little project” I first hinted at a couple of weeks ago (I told you it was “little”). The old homepage had been designed for yesterday’s lower resolution monitors, and so it was a bit too narrow and a bit too long. It’s now been simplified to highlight the most important stuff, namely news and software updates. And there’s also a new News section to go along with these changes (as well as changes to the actual news pages). The top navigational bar, and even our site logo, has also been renovated, with the top bar taking a little bit less vertical space, and reducing the number of links shown there by highlighting only the most important sections. A few pages remain unchanged, as I ran out of time with my self imposed deadline of yesterday, so I’ll slowly re-work these pages to get them into line.

Despite a busy week in which I also had to exchange my Samsung plasma TV for a new one due to an unrepairable fault (so getting a nice and new 2012 model 60″ on Monday as a no-cost replacement, which is an alright outcome), I also managed to write the March 2012 US video game sales analysis, which you can read here. Nothing too surprising, with the Xbox 360 still leading, although the PS3 is catching up a bit. Mass Effect 3 dominated the month and sold 4 times as many copies on the 360 than on the PS3 (in the US, at least).

Onto the news roundup then …

Copyright

Starting with copyright news for the week, Google guy Sergey Brin issued a warning this week that web freedoms are in peril, thanks to increasing attack by interested parties.

Apple and Facebook

Apple and Facebook, the root of some of the evil, according to Google's Sergey Brin

Those interested parties of course include the entertainment industry, who are increasingly painting themselves into a corner as the enemy of the Internet (which I personally don’t think is a very good strategy), governments who do the bidding of the entertainment industry, and perhaps controversially, the likes of Apple and Facebook, according to Brin. The inclusion of the two tech giants, and Google competitors, may seem a bit cynical, but Brin’s main point is that the closed, proprietary nature of Apple/Facebook (probably needs to add Amazon to the list too) means that they have full control of what can and cannot be done on their platforms, which goes against the principles of the open web. But while Google embraces open source and should be commended for it, anyone who makes websites will know that Google themselves are not exactly that transparent when it comes to a lot of issues, and their practical monopoly on the search market gives them the same sort of power that Apple/Facebook derive from having more proprietary platforms.

With Apple under fire for eBook price fixing from the DoJ, and Apple firing back by calling Amazon a monopoly, a lot of what Brin is saying does make a lot of sense. The role that DRM plays in all of this is actually quite interesting. Even though it was originally designed to prevent piracy, DRM these days are far more effective at solidifying monopolies and preventing competition. By locking proprietary formats to hardware platforms, and tying DRM to these proprietary formats, it all sounds a bit more sinister than simple copyright enforcement. Most publishers are stupid and paranoid enough to actually want the DRM, but this insatiable appetite for unreliable technology is also driving out the small players from the market, one such small player revealed this week. The cost of DRM, the actual financial cost, is quite large for a new start-up – often in the tens of thousands, not even including the technical knowledge requirements. This means that as long as publishers are still keen on DRM (to offer them that false sense of security they crave), it benefits the big guys at the expense of the smaller players, and the monopolistic situation this creates in the end probably hurts the publishers more than had they not used DRM (DRM mostly only prevents casual piracy, the type where people share the same eBook with friends, as opposed to straight up piracy where pirate groups can easily circumvent DRM and upload the content online for all the enjoy).

AFACT vs iiNet

AFACT vs iiNet, The Final Chapter - the good guys, iiNet, wins in the end in your typical Hollywood style ending. Ironic.

Good news, that may soon turn to bad in Australia – our second largest ISP here managed to actually win a copyright case against the Hollywood-backed AFACT. So for now at least, ISPs have been found to be largely not responsible for the actions of its subscribers. The High Court also found that ISPs does not need to deal with infringement notices that are not accompanied by a court order – going totally against the precedents being set in other countries, where ISPs have been made the scapegoats in the war against piracy. And as this was a High Court decision, the highest court in the land, the win is final, and no more appeals can be granted. An obviously embarrassed AFACT, who have long been accused of taking orders directly from the MPAA (with Wikileaks documents showing that’s exactly what happened with this legal case), will now deploy a new tactic. They have blamed the existing copyright laws for not being biased enough towards rights holders, and want them changed so that, in the future, they could easily win lawsuits such as this one. This is where the possible bad news may come from, as the government bails out the AFACT by implementing new laws. So it’s just like that old saying, if you can’t beat them, have the rules changed so you can!

I’ve always felt that making ISPs liable for the activities of their users, especially when most ISPs don’t even have the capability to monitor the user’s downloads, was suspect. I’m not quite sure if the phone or electricity company analogy fully applies to ISPs, but I don’t think it’s that far off. These companies, like ISPs, provide a service to users, and users are liable for how they use the service. The only difference is that ISPs are made to be different under the DMCA (there’s no DMCA or equivalent for the phone company, for example), but they really shouldn’t be. The content holders will argue that it’s much easier for ISPs to spy on their subscribers and to stop their illegal activities. But just because it’s easy, does it really mean that it should happen? By all means, the ISP should take action if there’s a corresponding court order, but for “infringement notices”, which are merely untested allegations, why should the ISP be liable for something that’s hasn’t even been established to be illegal yet?

Rapidshare logo

RapidShare is rapidly turning into the MPAA and RIAA's best friend, with a new manifesto that destroys the rights of its users to appease its new friends

There’s probably a better term for it, but for me, the issue of web piracy has suffered from a lot of “legal slippage”. What I mean is that, because the problem has been so widespread, and the impact of the problem so exaggerated by the usual suspects, there’s this acceptance that corners need to be cut in order to “streamline” the legal process. So due process is out, and even basic distinctions like “evidence” and “proof” has been blurred to the point where “allegation” has become “guilt”. The lobbyists have pushed for this outcome, the government has been supportive, and the tech companies have been scared into accepting it all. Which is why it was disappointing, but not too surprising, to read RapidShare’s manifesto on “Responsible Practices for Cloud Storage Providers”, a defeatist piece of article that signals the surrender of the cloud storage industry to the power of the entertainment lobby. According to the manifesto, of the various aspect of DMCA takedown request, including its validity, the only factor that actually matter is the actual formatting. If it’s properly formatted, then RapidShare says that the takedown request should be deemed valid, even if it’s for something ridiculous like removing open source software. So, in RapidShare’s eyes, it’s perfectly reasonable for me to get a competitor’s RapidShare account closed down as long as I submit a *properly formatted* DMCA request, and if my request turns out to be invalid, then it’s up to my competitor to prove that it is (in RapidShare’s own words, it’s up to the user to explain “why the suspicions are unfounded”), and for them to take legal action against me for filing a false request (if I was stupid enough to use my real name in the first place). This must give the business users of RapidShare real confidence in the reliability of the service.

Worse yet, those same business users that use RapidShare to privately store and share commercially confidential information should be even more worried about RapidShare’s stated policy of reserving the right to “inspect” the files for users who have failed to prove their innocence.

What, no strip searches?

High Definition

Nothing much happening HD wise, although this one story about Sony’s upcoming archival storage format was interesting, mostly due to the reaction to it.

Sony’s announced a new archival storage format, based on the Blu-ray format, that aims to offer 1.5TB of storage. It does it in a pretty old fashioned way, by putting as many as 12 discs into the same cartridge unit (so 12 times 125GB BDXL equals 1.5TB). By the time I saw the story, it had already gathered a lot of attention, which I thought was weird for a product aimed mainly at broadcasters and corporations. A lot of the comments were the usual “why pay $$$ for this when you can get a 1.5TB HDD for $79” and the like, and as much as I like to bash Sony, and I really do, I felt compelled to write the story just so I can clarify a few things here.

A 1.5TB HDD will definitely be cheaper than Sony’s proprietary drive and disc cartridge system, but they’re for entirely different purposes. For archival storage, data retention is everything, and an active system like a hard-drive with mechanical bits and bobs is not best. So optical discs do have a few advantages here, and you can’t really blame Sony for using Blu-ray as the basis of this new format. Putting 12 discs in a cartridge may seem like a “dumb” solution, especially since it appears the cartridge simply act as a carousel system, and doesn’t allow for parallel writes and reads (so only one disc is extracted from the cartridge and written/read at a time), but for archival purposes where you’re only likely to write to disc once (and, if things go well, never actually read the damn thing), it gets the job done. Using an active hard-drive for archival storage is suicidal, unless it’s part of a well maintained array of discs, which doesn’t seem to make much sense from an economics point of view.

I also did a bit of research to see if SSDs are more suited to these kind of tasks, considering mechanical drives are on the way out – but SSDs data retention may actually be worse if you don’t get the right type of drive, as the electrons used to “store” the data may leak to the point where the data simply disappears (this info comes via a web forum, so it may in fact be made up). So it seems optical discs, at least for archive purposes, do have a role to play, although whether they’re better than current tape based systems, I don’t know and really don’t care to know since I’ve already spent way too much time researching and writing about something that’s not even remotely interesting to most people.

But for those that are interested in these kind of things, here’s a forum thread that may help you waste a few hours of your life.

That’s probably as good a place to stop writing, so I can stop wasting your time, but mainly because I’ve run out of things to write about. See you next week.

Weekly News Roundup (15 April 2012)

Sunday, April 15th, 2012

Welcome to another edition of the WNR. Not a very busy weeks judging by the number of news stories, so hopefully we can get this done rather quickly. I’ve been busy working on that little update for Digital Digest, which I promise will be launched next week, even if it’s still only half-completed (to be fair, it’s more like 80% completed). And you know I’m serious about meeting this rather artificial deadline by the fact that I didn’t even play that much Skyrim this past week!

One development that came too late in the week to be included was the March NPD results, and I’ll write the full report early next week.

Copyright

Let’s start with the copyright news, starting with the revelation that, even within the MPAA itself, not everyone was convinced that SOPA was the right solution for the web piracy problem.

SOPA Protests

It seems the anti-SOPA/PIPA sentiment was also alive and well within the MPAA itself (photo credits: Alain-Christian @ flickr)

When the anti-SOPA Internet Society hired a former MPAA executive, there was a bit of a controversy as you would expect. This prompted the MPAA’s former chief technology policy officer, Paul Brigner, to come out and explain a few things about his new appointment, including his apparent opposition to SOPA/PIPA. It seems Brigner left the MPAA at least partially because he felt SOPA was not the right solution to the piracy problem, and that SOPA and other “mandated technical solutions” are not “mutually compatible with the health of the Internet”. If the MPAA can’t even convince it’s own tech policy officer of the merits of SOPA, perhaps it really doesn’t have much merit at all.

But you get the feeling that the MPAA will never be fully satisfied until they get the power to not only squash any website it wants, but also to force others (like ISPs, governments) to help them do most of the heavy lifting. They will have ruined the Internet by then of course, probably only to find out that piracy has not only not slowed, but it has shifted to other parts of the Internet that can’t be easily controlled or legislated. And that, without argument, would be a far worse situation than what the one today.

It appears “blowback” invariably happens every time the copyright lobby launches a new crackdown, especially using technological measures. Every DRM has been met with an even stronger anti-DRM. Going after torrent sites have only resulted in more resilient torrenting methods. Which seems to indicate that going after video embedding, the MPAA’s latest manoeuvre, may backfire as well. The MPAA is getting itself involved in a legal showdown that originally only involved an adult entertainment company, Flava Works, and myVidster, a website that allowed people to post and share their video embeds, but  now includes the likes of Google, Facebook, the EFF, and of course, the MPAA. The tech giants saw the original court ruling, which was in favour of Flava Works, as severely flawed, setting a precedent that could have huge repercussions for the entire Internet. The judge in the case failed to make the distinction between linking/embedding, and hosting, something that could make Google Images liable for the copyright infringement of any image in its database for example, or make Facebook sharing a legal minefield. There was also the issue of a “repeat infringer” policy, or Flava Works’ claim that myVidster did not have one, and how it relates to linked/embedded and hosted infringement. It seems to me that the DMCA is rather unclear about what a “repeat infringer” is, and it seems the law leaves service providers and Internet intermediaries to define what it actually means and what kind of policy to implement, even if it is one not to the satisfactory of content holders. And since myVidster did have a working DMCA take-down process, and that it did not host anything, the ruling seems a bit harsh. Also, you have to question why Flava Works went after myVidster, instead of going after the hosts of the actual videos, the dime a dozen porn tube sites. The responsibility cannot keep on flowing downwards until you get to someone that’s easier to sue.

Hotfile

Hotfile's expert says the most downloaded files on their network were two open source files

An anti-MPAA theme seems to be developing this week, since the only other copyright story is also MPAA related. This one has to do with the MPAA’s lawsuit against Hotfile, where the MPAA, using their own expert, argued that 90% of all downloads on Hotfile were infringing content, and that the Hotfile had few, if any, legitimate uses. This week it was revealed that Hotfile’s own expert, Duke University law professor James Boyle, found that this really wasn’t the case at all. Professor Boyle found that in actual fact, the two most downloaded files on Hotfile were actually open source software, with more than 1.5 million downloads between them. And while the “90%” figure wasn’t entirely debunked, and I think it’s hard to argue against the fact that a large percentage of total downloads on file hosting sites like Hotfile and Megaupload are of the infringing nature, I think in terms of the sheer number of different uploads (ie. not taking into account the number of downloads), I suspect there is also a large percentage of non infringing files on these networks (your typical spreadsheet, Word doc, PDF, home videos and other files too large to share via email, that may very well only be downloaded once, but still a key reason why people use file hosting sites).

This really is another grey area in the law. Take an extreme example where 90% of all different files on Hotfile were non infringing, but 90% of all downloads were infringing, then would Hotfile’s non infringing uses make it legal, assuming the website had a working DMCA process? How much is too much, and how much is “enough” when it comes to anti-piracy?

High Definition

I read an interesting article this week on Forbes’ blog, where the headline was “Sony’s Blues Caused By Blu-ray”, a rather controversial title if you ask me.

The actual article, despite the headline, did cover more than just Blu-ray, and it did raise a couple of interesting points. So are Sony’s recent woes caused by Blu-ray? The recent woes being the global layoffs and the lack of profitability, of course, but to blame it on Blu-ray seems a bit counter-intuitive, considering Blu-ray seems to be the only recent success for Sony.

But what the Forbes blog, written by contributor Stephen Pope, was perhaps trying to say is that while Blu-ray is a victory for Sony, it just wasn’t a big enough victory to help the company stay profitable, and that in the end, it may even only a fleeting victory, considering the growing popularity of streaming vs discs.

Sony Blu-ray

Sony's Blu-ray victory may be short lived, as consumers are keen to move onto streaming (photo credits: mroach @ flickr)

I’ve long held the believe that Sony lost its dominance in the gaming sector by allowing the Xbox 360 to be a viable successor to the PS2, due to the one year delay in releasing the PS3 and the high initial cost of the hardware – both factors very much related to the included Blu-ray support. So while the PS3 helped Sony win the HD format wars, it also hindered Sony in keeping their dominance in the gaming arena. Looking at the current range of multi-platform games and the quality difference between the PC/Xbox 360 DVD version of the PS3 Blu-ray version, it seems the Blu-ray disc’s superior capacity has done little to actually benefit the gaming experience. And while the platform exclusives do try and make the best use of Blu-ray, they just aren’t selling enough to make a huge difference compared to the mega multi-platform franchises of Call of Duty or FIFA or GTA.

And streaming certainly does look like the future, if only for the fact that discs and the drives that read them are just not compatible with today’s portable devices. There is also a trend to consume more content (often for less money), and the physical cost and space that discs (and their packaging) requires, puts a limit on this consumption (while raising the price of it – last year, the average price people paid for streaming content was 51 cents, compared to $4.72 for discs). And access, with discs being limited to what you have purchased or what your rental outlet has in stock, just can’t compete with a streaming digital library of hundreds of thousands of titles that will never “run out of copies” (or suffer from bad scratches).

And even in terms of data storage, the 50GB Blu-ray offers, or even the 100+GB of BDXL pales in comparison to the TBs of data people need these days for their digital needs. So you have a multi-TB drive the size of a small book versus shelves full of BDs that you have to take time to burn, label, organize, that actually costs many more times than the drive – even in data storage, Blu-ray may be too little, too late.

So Pope certainly makes a few valid points, although I would say the biggest problem for Sony is that it is neither the design powerhouse that is Apple (Sony is at times too preoccupied with things like copy protection to consider things like ease of use, in my opinion), nor can it compete in the value stakes with the likes of Samsung (a company that’s also doing more on the innovation front than Sony, in my opinion).

Gaming

For gaming, the March NPD was yet another victory for the Xbox 360 (that’s 15 months in a row where the Xbox 360 has been the top selling home based console), although being the best of a bad bunch may not be such a meaningful award.

Also interesting was the news that Mass Effect 3 sold 4 times as many copies on the Xbox 360 than on the PS3 (I’m assuming this is North America only). This is perhaps a special case because the game carries on your saved progress from the last game in the series, not helped by the fact that the original game wasn’t even available on the PS3 (instead, relying on an interactive comic to record the key decision carried over from the first game). Also not helping is the fact that the PS3 is getting itself a rather bad reputation for having inferior multi-platform games, not just on ME3, but also on the other mega franchises such as Skyrim and CoD.

And I guess I also have to mention Skyrim’s upcoming Kinect support for the Xbox 360 version. The preview video looks pretty cool, although it looks like the game will only take advantage of Kinect’s voice support (and so the same features can probably be replicated via the PlayStation Eye’s microphone, if Sony really wanted it to happen by giving Bethesda some financial incentives, or making it really easy programming wise to do so. Some of the new Kinect features are already available via PC mods though, with a normal microphone, or even via the Kinect connected to your PC).

Screaming Fus Ro Dah at your TV is probably the geekiest thing anyone will do this year!

The unrelenting force of my addiction to Skyrim means that, just by mentioning it, I now have the sudden urge to play it for another hour or two. Which of course means we’ve come to the end of this WNR. See you next week.

Weekly News Roundup (1 April 2012)

Sunday, April 1st, 2012

I know what the date is, and no, I’m not going do something for it. The expectation is always too high, and I can never live up to it. Besides, all the interesting ones have been done, and the rest, I’m fairly sure, constitute libel. So nobody is making a fool out of anyone else for this year, not Digital Digest anyway.

Or maybe I’m just luring you into a false sense of security …

But before we get into any April based tomfoolery, which may or may not happen, let’s get through the news roundup first.

But before that even, a linky link to Digital Digest’s “new” Facebook page, or rather, the same page with the new Timeline thingy on it that has been forced upon all of us by all knowing Facebook. The timeline feature is definitely quite interesting, and if I have the time, I might just start adding a few of Digital Digest’s milestones into the timeline (having only added in one entry for the launch of the website back in 1999, so far). I’ve never been a big fan of Facebook’s user interface, but I must say this timeline thing does look good.

Copyright

First, a follow-up to a story from last week regarding RapidShare. I mentioned last week, in a brief sentence, that RapidShare may soon be forced to filter all user uploads due to a recent court decision. Apparently, this is not actually  the case at all.

What had happened is that the groups suing RapidShare in Germany, a collection of book and music rights groups, had released a statement celebrating their “victory”, despite the court having not yet released the full written verdict. But now that the written verdict has been released, it paints a rather different picture, one that RapidShare says gives them an important victory as well.

Now I’m aware of the spin that is probably being produced by both sides, but it’s clear the the verdict wasn’t the clear victory the rights holders had hoped for. What the court did, at least according to RapidShare, was to recognise RapidShare’s overall business model as a legal one, while at the same time asking RapidShare to do more on the issues of copyright infringement. The court says that RapidShare needs to actively seek out links to infringing content (hosted on its servers) by visiting the common haunts for these types of things – popular forums, blogs, websites and such, and remove said content once it is aware of the likely legal status of the upload. This is opposed to scanning each and every download, without knowing anything about the legality of the download (which, according to the European Court of Justice, may constitute a violation of privacy rights). But RapidShare says they’re already doing exactly this, and so for them, the court’s verdict won’t actually affect them too much. Despite this, RapidShare still plan to appeal the decision on the grounds that while they think these measures are a reasonable part of their business strategy, they don’t believe the court has the right to order websites to comply.

Hotfile

Hotfile will soon scan all uploads for pirated content, but it may be too little, and too late, as far as the MPAA is concerned

Another file sharing host is taking a different approach to anti-piracy, although it might be too late, if not too little. A press release alerted me to the fact that Hotfile will start using Vobile’s vCloud9 scanning solution to scan uploads for infringing content. Apparently, the technology employs a database of known file “fingerprints”, and can even scan compressed archives to see if the upload contains infringing content. This comes after the company recently changed its affiliate program to no longer pay based on download volume (ie. heavily favoured towards pirated downloads), but instead, when uploads result in the downloader signing up to a premium account, and uploaders get a commission on that. With the MPAA still insistent on a summary judgement against Hotfile in its lawsuit, this may all be too late, and it’s probably too little as well when it comes to what the MPAA really wants (which is to shut down Hotfile and make an example out of them, probably).

For those that take an interest in things like DVD and Blu-ray copy protection, as well as region coding and stuff, you should be well aware that Fox are one of the “hard-asses” when it comes to these sort of things. Being pretty much the only studio that consistently makes its US Blu-rays region locked (even Sony has seen the light, and forgoes region control for catalogue releases), and having early on declared their support for Blu-ray based solely on the format’s preference for tougher copy protection methods (all of which has since been cracked, of course), you’d expect that Fox, and its parent company, to be the last one to have a copyright scandal. Which was why it was very ironical to see News Corp embroiled in its own piracy scandal this week, as claims were made by BBC’s Panorama program, and also separately by an Australian newspaper, that a (former) subsidiary of News Corp may have helped to fuel piracy of competitor’s services in order to gain an unfair market advantage. Apparently, the subsidiary, NDS, helped to crack rival pay TV networks’ encryption cards, and then helped to ensure the cracked codes got into the hands of people who sell pirated services. News Corp, and NDS, have both denied these allegations, but both the BBC and the Australian paper, the Australian Financial Review, say they have gathered a lot of evidence on this (with the AFR saying that this investigation has been four years in the making). With the Australian government already considering launching its own official investigation into this incident, this could be a story to watch out for.

And finally for this week’s copyright section, I have a story that hits pretty close to home. Actually, it hits directly at home like a guided missile, and for the fun of it, takes out a few neighbouring properties too.  This week, the home page of Digital Digest, and two PowerDVD related pages, were removed from the Google search results due to a DMCA take-down request filed by Guardlex.com. You can read the full story here, and the DMCA notice here on Chilling Effects if/when it’s ever made available, but the gist of it is that Guardlex, probably working on behalf of Cyberlink (the makers of PowerDVD) to take down results related to pirated downloads of PowerDVD, took down our pages as part of a DMCA notice that included thousands of other URLs. The thousands of URLs also included well known legitimate websites such as Cnet’s download.com, Afterdawn, Softonic.com and other clearly legal URLs, including a dozen URLs from Cyberlink’s own website (including their home page!).

Digital Digest DMCA Google

The Digital Digest home page have been removed from the Google results due to the DMCA complaint that does not seem to be valid at all

The whole DMCA removal process with Google goes something like this. When Google receives a DMCA notice, and if the notice has all the proper documentations, they immediately remove the URL from their search results (and you’ll see the “In response to a complaint we received under the US Digital Millennium Copyright Act, we have removed … message at the bottom of any search results page that has removed results – do a search for “PowerDVD” right now, and you’ll see 3 such messages, meaning 3 URLs were removed). Some time later, could be days or weeks, Google informs the owner of the removed page(s), assuming they have a webmaster central account with Google, of the take-down. And a few days after that, Google may send the website owner the actual DMCA notice. You then have the option to file a counter-notification, and if Google does not receive any further notice on this matter within 14 working days, the URLs get reinstated back into Google’s index.

So even in the case of a mistaken identity, as was the case here I believe, it may take weeks to get it all sorted, with financial and a reputation loss that cannot be avoided. Under the DMCA, if I’m the victim of a mistaken take-down, I can sue for damages. The problem is that this is rarely worth the time and trouble when you factor in legal fees, and so DMCA agents can get away with these innocent and sometimes not so innocent mistakes, most of the time. This is probably why 57% of all DMCA claims made to Google are by companies out to “get” their competitors, and that 37% aren’t even valid claims. It’s clear that the DMCA is currently being abused by rights holders, and that was always going to happen if you have the level of bias present in these sets of laws.

And so it scares me very much to think that rights holders still say the DMCA is not biased enough, and they want something like SOPA or PIPA to make it even easier to take down entire websites, just for a few bad pages that may not even be bad. Sure, the major backers of the bills will say it’s only for “foreign rogue” websites, and that they will promise not to abuse it, but can you really trust them? And even if you can, can you trust all the people and companies that will have access to SOPA/PIPA, to not abuse it in the same way they’re currently abusing the DMCA?

High Definition

A couple of WNR’s ago, for an issue where I ran out of stuff to write, I enthused about how great streaming video-on-demand was, and how it look destined to be the future of home video.

It seems that the future is going to get here sooner than I though. The latest research via IHS Screen Digest (no relations) says that streaming has just overtaken discs as *the* way to watch movies and TV shows at home, having increased by about 140% in the last year alone. 3.4 billion viewings were made on streaming media, compared to only 2.4 billion on DVDs and Blu-ray, for 2011.

What was more interesting is that, on average, people only paid 51 cents for each streaming title, while they paid $4.72 for discs. The cost of an Internet connection and bandwidth is probably not counted for streaming, which will increase the cost, but I think the main idea is that people watch more on streaming, especially unlimited streaming offers, because they have access to more content for a far lower price than compared to “owning” content.

Netflix vs Blu-ray

Is Netflix going to doom Blu-ray? Maybe not now, but you can't dent that VOD is the best way to access and maintain a huge library of titles

Of course, this story has led to people saying the end of nigh for Blu-ray, but until true Blu-ray quality 1080p can be streamed to most people’s homes, the reality is that Blu-ray is still very much needed.

But for those that don’t really care that much about seeing a few extra pixels or “owning” content, or for content that can’t benefit from the full bandwidth HD treatment, then $7.99 per month for Netflix may be a much better deal than having a collection of hundreds or even thousands of discs (just making available the shelving space is a pain, trust me).

But for me, having something physical to hold on to that won’t refuse to play simply because my Internet connection is down, is still worth the extra $4.21.

And with that, we come to the end of another WNR. See you next week.