DVDGuy’s Blog @ Digital Digest

August 2009 might just be the turning point for 2009 in terms of video game sales. So far, apart from the first few months of 2009, it has been a very disappointing year, especially when compared to 2008. Sure, the economy has a lot to do with it, but some consoles have fallen harder than others, suggesting perhaps there were other factors in contention. But with Sony’s price cut, the new PS3 Slim and the PSP Go, the Xbox 360 price cut, and the holiday season upon us soon, now seems to be the right time for a recovery. The figures are from NPD, a marketing research firm that releases games console sale data every month.

The figures for US sales in August 2009 are below, ranked in order of number of sales (August 2008 figures also shown, including percentage change):

NPD August 2009 Game Console US Sales Figures

NPD Game Console Total US Sales Figures (as of August 2009)

My prediction from last month was:

So prediction time. By this time next month, we should have a good idea whether the PS3 Slim is fact or fiction (if I had to put money on it, I would say ‘fact’), as well as what price cuts there might be. The PS3 Slim, according to rumours, won’t be here until September anyway, so it won’t be before October (when I post the September NPD analysis) before we can see what effects it may have on sales. In the short term though, this could spell a sales drought for the PS3, unless Sony does some pre-emptive price drop for the older SKUs to get rid of stock. August is traditionally also a slow month, so I expect sales to drop further, or at best, stay the same with July levels. The same ordering as this month, most likely. Madden NFL 10 should dominate, along with Wii Sports Resort, and there might be a late month surge in Batman: Arkham Asylum sales.

Well, the PS3 Slim was in fact a ‘fact’, but I didn’t put any money on it, and I doubt I would have made much if I had given the odds at that time. The price cut was also a ‘fact’. While the PS3 Slim’s official release date was the 1st of September, many had already managed to secure one through regular retail channels, and so with the price cut on existing models as well, the August numbers do reflect the PS3 Slim/price cut effect, although obviously not the full effect which we will see this time next month for the September figures. The price cut on existing models took place around the middle of the month, and so the sales drought did not occur (although it did in certain places, like Japan). The Xbox 360 price drop came at the very end of the month, so it should not have affected the stats all that much. August is traditionally slow, but with so many announcements and changes happening, I was wrong about a general drop in sales, as August was better than July, if only slightly. And on the software front, I was pretty much on the mark, even predicting the order of the three titles that dominates this month’s charts. In any case, it was nice to see some ‘green’ in the sales figures above, for the comparison with 2008.

So the big news of the month was the PS3 Slim and the associated price cut on all models. It happened around the middle of the month, and while we will only see the full effects of the PS3 Slim in the September figures (due out this time next month), we can already see the effect of the price cut that everyone, myself included, has been calling for. While the effect of the price cut wasn’t as dramatic as I, or many others, had imagined (most likely due to the PS3 Slim not being officially released until the next set of figures), there was an effect, albeit not enough to unseat the Xbox 360 as the third most popular console in the US. This should happen next month. And I would say even if the price cut had not occurred, a new model would have driven PS3 sales over sales of the Xbox 360, so with the price cut, the effect should be even more dramatic. But it’s worth noting that there is a surge of sales for any new model (like what the DSi experienced only a couple of months ago), as people upgrade to the new model along with people getting into it for the first time. The surge, unfortunately, is only temporary, and so it will be a couple of months before we see the long term effects of these changes. In any case, change was needed and Sony brought about it at just the right time. I may be in the minority when I say this, but I am not really sure that a new slim model was really needed, unless of course it is the new model that allowed  Sony to reduce costs and cut prices. Yes, in the short term a new model helps, but in the long term, keeping with the existing PS3, but with a price cut, would yield the same benefits. And then given time and technological improvements, bringing out a PS3 Slim that’s really much much smaller would have made more sense, since the current PS3 Slim doesn’t reduce the footprint of the console by much. With its non glossy surface, and greater depth, the PS3 Slim feels “cheaper” than the PS3 Fat. But that’s just my opinion, and perhaps because I rate the look of the original PS3 higher than many others. I like glossy stuff, you see. In any case, Sony finally breaks the duck of having poorer monthly in every month of 2009 compared to the same month in 2008 – rising a healthy 14% compared to August 2008. No such luck for the PSP and the PS2, but with the new PSP Go coming soon and the PS2 nearing end of line, you can pretty much ignore these figures.

There wasn’t much time for Microsoft to respond following Sony’s price cut announcement, with the Xbox 360 price cut only happening when the month was practically over. But even then, it managed to outsell the PS3 for yet another month, but perhaps as I mentioned above, it will be the last time it does this for some time. The effect of the full price cut comes in next month, with Microsoft positioning the Xbox 360 Elite at the same price point as the PS3, it will be interesting to see if Microsoft can keep the third spot they’ve held on to for all of 2009. But as I said before, I don’t think so, because the short term effects of a new model should not be underestimated. Even a new SKU, like the Xbox 360 Arcade, can produce rather dramatic effects on sales, despite the actual console looking much the same and with no incentive for existing users to upgrade. Both

The Wii is this month’s loser again, dropping a massive 39% compared to the same time last month. In terms of history, it is sill doing quite well compared to consoles like the PS2, but it is quickly losing freshness, and perhaps a saturation point has been reached. Without hardcore gamers jumping on board, it may be difficult to maintain both hardware and software sales, evident in the Wii version of Madden NFL 10 not charting in the top 10, and even beaten handsomely by the PS2 version. And with Natal coming out on the Xbox 360, the “cool” factor will be shifting away from it starting next year when Natal is released, and even those who prefer a wii-mote like controller to the Natal’s controller-less interface, the PS3 motion controller will be taking customers away from the Wii. A price cut should help, but I don’t think price is the Wii’s major problem at this time. More fresh and innovative games and add-ons, like Wii Fit, should help, but just how many add-ons will the typical Wii user be willing to buy, especially when compared to Natal, the extra devices just feels a bit like Nintendo is only making up for the short comings of a system that still relies controller input. And with the PS3/Xbox 360 price cuts, the Wii could very well lose the number two position, and may even slip to fourth.

So onto software. To toot my own horn again, as predicted by yours truly, Madden NFL 10 topped this month’s charts, followed by Wii Sports Resort and Batman: Arkham Asylum. To be completely honest though, this was easy to predict based on last year’s figures for Madden, and a casual glance at the Amazon sales charts. There was a lot of talk during the month about the PS3 version of Batman: AA outselling the Xbox 360 version on Amazon, but Amazon is only one retailer, and it is not indicative of the general market condition. Still, the PS3 version did manage to sell on level terms with the Xbox 360, a trend that’s been happening more often lately, suggesting that for completely new games, the PS3 version will sell nearly on equal terms with the Xbox 360 version. But for franchise games like Madden, where people already have older versions on one particular console, loyalty and convenience may lock people to the console they’ve purchased older versions on if both versions are similar in quality, and so we may still see the larger gap between Xbox 360 and PS3 versions from time to time. And what might turn out to be a trend from now on is the fairly close gap between market share enjoyed by the three competing consoles – this time, the Xbox 360 came out ahead with 34.5% of all sales in the top 10, with the Wii on 28.1% and the PS3 on 26.8% (its best figures for some time). Wii Sports Resort is keeping the Wii in it, but while it had 1 more title in the top 10 compared to both the PS3 and the Xbox 360, the other two enjoyed much less sales than either Madden or Batman. In fact, as mentioned before, the Wii version of Madden was outsold by the PS2 version, in a time when it’s rare to see any PS2 titles in the top 10.

Here’s the complete list of the top 10 software sales:

1. Madden NFL 10 (Xbox 360, EA) – 928,000
2. Wii Sports Resort (Wii, Nintendo) – 754,000
3. Madden NFL 10 (PS3, EA) – 665,000
4. Batman: Arkham Asylum (Xbox 360, Eidos) – 303,000
5. Batman: Arkham Asylum (PS3, Eidos) – 290,000
6. Madden NFL 10 (PS2, EA) – 160,000
7. Dissidia: Final Fantasy (PSP, Square Enix) – 130,000
8. Wii Fit w/Board (Wii, Nintendo) – 128,000
9. Mario Kart w/ Wheel (Wii, Nintendo) – 120,000
10. Fossil Fighters (DS, Nintendo) – 92,000

Prediction time. I think I’ve made my prediction pretty clear throughout this article, with the PS3 hardware numbers receiving a noticeable boost. It could even be enough to unseat the Wii from the number two spot, although I think it unlikely (but not impossible) that it will outsell the DS. The Xbox 360 price cut should have some effect, and even it might outsell the Wii, however unlikely this scenario seemed just a few months ago. I haven’t really said much, have I? So for a concrete prediction, I would say the PS3 to outsell the Xbox 360 and the Wii, and the number three being contested between the Xbox 360 and the Wii (too close to call, at this point). The PSP Go is coming in October, so we won’t see the numbers until November. Halo 3: ODST should top the charts next month, followed by Wii Sports Resort. The Beatles game should sell well too, although the Wii SKU may outsell the PS3/Xbox 360 ones.  At least one SKU of Batman: AA should still chart, although whether it’s the Xbox 360 or the PS3 version is too close to call at the moment as well (Xbox 360 users will be fully occupied by Halo 3: ODST to think about buying other games, I feel).

See you next month.

The July 2009 US video games sales figures are in. The last few months has seen a major contraction of the video gaming market in the US. While the news elsewhere is of a recovery, the video gaming industry is still waiting for a sign which doesn’t seem to be forthcoming at the moment. Many in the industry will hope July will be the turning point, and with the Wii MotionPlus enabled Wii Sports Resorts being released in July, a Wii-led recovery may be just what the doctor ordered. The figures are from NPD, a marketing research firm that releases games console sale data every month.

The figures for US sales in July 2009 are below, ranked in order of number of sales (July 2008 figures also shown, including percentage change):

NPD July 2009 Game Console US Sales Figures

NPD Game Console Total US Sales Figures (as of July 2009)

My prediction from last month was:

I’m going to bet on a slight increase in Wii sales, but not enough to bring it back to the same levels from earlier this year. The software charts should see domination from the Wii MotionPlus enabled titles, notably Wii Sports Resort. NCAA Football should do well too, so it would be between these two titles that the number one spot is jostled for. Otherwise, business as usual, with an overall uplift as we get closer to the holiday period.

The sea of red you see above should give you clue as to how wrong I was. The only thing I got right was that Wii Sports Resort and NCAA Football would dominate, but there was no uplift for the Wii, and there was no general uplift either. To be fair, I came up with the above prediction based on the misreading of some stats, because July normally is worse than June, and traditionally, August is going to be even worse. It won’t be until September that we will see positive movement, and this is in a normal year where the economy isn’t a huge issue.

The biggest loser for July was the Wii. Recording a massive 55% drop in sales compared to the same month last year, and now only selling 50,000 more than the Xbox 360, perhaps it’s time Nintendo had a serious look at the pricing policy, because out of all the consoles, the Wii is still the one that has not had either a serious drop in price or an upgrade in terms of features of functionality.

The second biggest loser is the PS3. Now you should have heard by now all the PS3 Slim related rumours, and not only are Sony going to bring out a sexier console, they’re also going to drop prices (possibly by $100 and 100 Euros in the US/Europe). And if this is true (and I’m not going to fall for it until I read the PR release on Sony.com), then it couldn’t have come at a better time. Or rather, at a much more needed time. The PS3 is dying right now without a price cut, and even if they don’t bring out the Slim and simply bring out a cheaper SKU, then that will do wonders for it. Otherwise, it’s barely outselling the PS2, which I assume with Sony’s price cut and Slim announcement will mean it becomes an end-of-line product. And the new PSP is also coming at the right time, because it is also dying.

The DS and the Xbox 360 are the smallest losers, but still losers, for July. The DSi effect it wearing off and it won’t be too long before the DS is also seeing large drops in sales compared to the previous year. The only console to have held on so far this year has been the Xbox 360, and it was only a loser technically this month, a tiny 1% drop compared to July 2008. The price is right, with the Xbox 360 it seems, but with the cheaper PS3 possibly coming in September, Microsoft will have to think up something new to entice users, because there’s only so much it can do in terms of price cuts before they’ll be giving away the console for free. I believe their current plans are to phase out the Arcade model and replace it with the current Pro, making the Elite (120 GB Black version) the mainstream version, with a new Elite coming stuffed with more goodies (and eventually Natal). Will this work? Probably not as effective as Microsoft needs, because Sony has been adding features to the PS3 without much of an effect on sales. If anything, Microsoft needs a Xbox 360 Slim, because the PS3 needs a slim, quieter version much less so than the Xbox 360, notorious for it’s various hardware problems. Making a smaller, cooler (both in the temperature sense and The Fonz sense) and more reliable Xbox 360 will do wonders for the console, and it might actually be cheaper for Microsoft as they can move the CPU/GPU process to a more common one in-line with today’s technology. Then they can bring out Natal and get some of the Wii’s “wow” factor.

On to software. As expected, Wii Sports Resort was the month’s top selling title. Having played it for the last week, I like it more and more. Not so much the improved accuracy of the Wii-mote thanks to the Wii MotionPlus, but just the new collection of games that makes things a bit fresh as the original Wii Sports is getting a bit stale to be honest. NCAA Football again dominated, just like the same time last year, although both PS3 and Xbox 360 versions sold less than the same time last year, which is a worry considering 8 million more systems were sold between the 12 months. The economy is hitting hard on software, just as hard as it has been on hardware. There are a couple of DS games, plus Wii Fit and Mario Kart still in there (although Wii Play has disappeared for now). So on software terms, it was still a good month for Nintendo as they had 46.1% of the top 10 for the Wii alone (and another 17.5% for the DS). Microsoft was second with 24.6%, and PS3 had the single lone title in the top 10 with 11.8%.

Here’s the complete list of the top 10 software sales:

1. Wii Sports Resort (Wii, Nintendo) – 508,200
2. NCAA Football 10 (Xbox 360, EA) – 376,500
3. NCAA Football 10 (PS3, EA) – 237,400
4. Wii Fit w/Board (Wii, Nintendo) – 164,300
5. Mario Kart w/ Wheel (Wii, Nintendo) – 156,600
6. Mario Kart (DS, Nintendo) – 132,200
7. Pokemon Platinum (DS, Nintendo) – 116,400
8. Fight Night Round 4 (Xbox 360, EA) – 116,400
9. New Super Mario Bros. (DS, Nintendo) – 101,800
10. EA Sports Active (Wii, EA) – 96,800

So prediction time. By this time next month, we should have a good idea whether the PS3 Slim is fact or fiction (if I had to put money on it, I would say ‘fact’), as well as what price cuts there might be. The PS3 Slim, according to rumours, won’t be here until September anyway, so it won’t be before October (when I post the September NPD analysis) before we can see what effects it may have on sales. In the short term though, this could spell a sales drought for the PS3, unless Sony does some pre-emptive price drop for the older SKUs to get rid of stock. August is traditionally also a slow month, so I expect sales to drop further, or at best, stay the same with July levels. The same ordering as this month, most likely. Madden NFL 10 should dominate, along with Wii Sports Resort, and there might be a late month surge in Batman: Arkham Asylum sales.

See you next month.

Another month, and another edition of the NPD Video Games Sales Figure Analysis. The last few months has seen the video game industry hit hard by the current economic woes, with sales numbers retreating. Elsewhere, there’s talk of green shoots and a recovery, but has it happened in the video game industry? June’s figures should provide further evidence as to whether the slump is easing, or it just beginning. The figures are from NPD, a marketing research firm that releases games console sale data every month.

The figures for US sales in June 2009 are below, ranked in order of number of sales (June 2008 figures also shown, including percentage change):

• DS: 766,500 (Total: 32.1 million; June 2008: 783,000 –down 2%)
• Wii: 361,700 (Total: 20.6 million; June 2008: 666,700 – down 57%)
• Xbox 360: 240,600 (Total: 15.5 million; June 2008: 219,800 – up 9%)
• PS3: 164,700 (Total: 7.9 million; June 2008: 405,500 – down 59%)
• PSP: 163,500 (Total: 15.3 million; June 2008: 337,400 – down 52%)
• PS2: 152,700 (Total: 44.2 million; June 2008: 188,800 – down 19%)

NPD June 2009 Game Console US Sales Figures

NPD Game Console Total US Sales Figures (as of June 2009)

My prediction from last month was:

So the prediction is the same as this month, with the PS3 numbers slightly higher still but maybe not high enough to beat the Xbox 360. I can see Prototype (the Xbox 360 version) being the top seller for the month, and it will be interesting to see how it stacks up against inFAMOUS which has received better review ratings (although the “100″ ratings given out by a few places are a bit over the top).

The PS3 numbers were higher, yes, but it wasn’t nearly enough to beat the Xbox 360. Prototype (as you will see below) was this month’s top seller, and it stacked up pretty well against inFAMOUS, which slipped all the way back to tenth. Had the game’s release been bought forward a few week, or pushed back to be released in June, then inFAMOUS may have even made a couple of spots higher in May, or even 2nd spot in June. Sony made the same mistake with Killzone 2. And yes, the “10” ratings is still over the top for what is a very good game, but not “perfect”.

While we’re talking about Sony, let’s look at their figures. Again, and continuing the trend since November of last year (that’s 8 months in a row, for those that are counting), all three PlayStation platforms undersold the same month a year ago. The economy (combined with Sony’s phobia of a price drop) has a lot to do with it, but that’s mainly the PS3 – Nintendo and Microsoft have been able to get year-on-year increases from time to time. The PSP Go won’t be released until October, which may be the first chance that Sony will get to break this trend of year-on-year shrinkage. But the PS2 has definitely had its time and official retirement can’t come sooner. Maybe when it is officially gone, Sony can concentrate fully on the PS3 and we’ll finally see a price cut. The PS3 Slim? I’ll believe it when I see it for pre-order on Amazon.

Nintendo’s DS (or DSi, to be more precise), it selling well, which bodes well for Sony’s PSP Go when it finally gets released in October – and the DSi isn’t even a brand new system, just an update. The Wii, however, is struggling a bit. By struggling, it still managed to easily beat the Xbox 360 and the PS3, but next month’s Wii MotionPlus plus the MotionPlus enable games such as Wii Sports Resort and EA Tennis, should maybe give the Wii a slight bounce. But a bounce might not occur at all, as the Wii’s extraordinary sales record may be to blame – has everyone who wants a Wii got one already? The saturation point may have been reached.

So the only people happy this month are Microsoft, with the Xbox 360 recording yet another year-on-year growth, and no price cut this month either.  9% growth isn’t something to be sneezed at, not for this year, and it shows that Microsoft has been shrewd in its price cutting strategy, as well as the wooing of game developers that has been a core strategy since inception. Just count the number of PlayStation exclusives that are no longer, and then count the reverse, and you can see why the Xbox 360 is winning against the PS3 (for now, at least). To read an interview in which Microsoft’s joy is revealed, click here. And with Natal coming next year, the momentum is there for the Xbox 360. The only thing it has to fear, and no it’s not fear itself, but rather a largish PS3 price cut. But Sony are doing all they can to help Microsoft on this front, so who says that friendly competition no longer exists in today’s world. Make that really really friendly competition.

Onto software. More good news for Microsoft, relatively good news (and some bad ones) for Nintendo, and the same story for the PS3. As predicted my yours truly, Prototype for the Xbox 360 was this month’s number one title. Last month’s number one, UFC 2009: Undisputed for the Xbox 360, managed to hold on to the number two spot. And yet, there were still room for two more Xbox 360 titles, Fight Night Round 4 and Red Faction: Guerrilla. For the Wii, the EA Sports Active Bundle continues to sell well, just slightly above the Wii MotionPlus enabled Tiger Woods PGA Tour 10 (a good preview for what will happen next month, when the Wii Sports Resort gets released bundled with the MotionPlus, and this could spur on sales for Tiger Woods 10 and EA’s Grand Slam Tennis). Wii Fit and Mario Kart round out the Wii top 10’s, but what’s missing is what is interesting: no Wii Play for the first time since, forever (well February 2007 anyway). Maybe time for a new Wii Play bundle that includes the MotionPlus?

And so onto the PS3. Well, Prototype, June’s top hit, was not a hit on the PS3 and I think we all know why: inFAMOUS. Activision will not be happy, but it was just too much asking gamers to buy both the exclusive (and better rated) inFAMOUS and Prototype being so close to each other’s release dates. No wonder Activision threatened to pull support for the PS3 just last month. Prototype was 13th on the top 20 list, 3 places behind inFAMOUS. inFamous should have done much better than it did, for a critically acclaimed exclusive, but just how many PS3 owners are hard core gamers is not an easy question to answer. Certainly less so than the ratio of hardcore versus casual gamers for the PS2 (and the Xbox 360. But that’s partly because the PS3 can do so much, if you want to provide a bit of damning by faint praise. The PS3’s only other top 10 entry was Fight Night Round 4, which gave it at least some good news because it sold very close to the Xbox 360 version, despite the 360’s 2:1 hardware ratio over the PS3. So maybe that hardcore gamer ratio isn’t so bad after all. Overall, the Xbox 360 had 45.9% of the top 10, the Wii had 38.9% and the PS3 had 15.2%. Here’s the complete list of the top 10 software sales:

1. Prototype (Xbox 360, Activision) – 419,900
2. UFC 2009 Undisputed (Xbox 360, THQ) – 338,300
3. EA Sports Active (Wii, EA) – 289,100
4. Tiger Woods PGA Tour 10 (Wii, EA) – 272,400
5. Wii Fit w/Board (Wii, Nintendo) – 271,600
6. Fight Night Round 4 (Xbox 360, EA) – 260,800
7. Fight Night Round 4 (PS3, EA) – 210,300
8. Mario Kart w/ Wheel (Wii, Nintendo) – 202,100
9. Red Faction: Guerrilla (Xbox 360, EA) – 199,400
10. inFAMOUS (PS3, Sony) – 192,700

So what will July bring? More of the same, or will be see a Wii bounce? I’m going to bet on a slight increase in Wii sales, but not enough to bring it back to the same levels from earlier this year. The software charts should see domination from the Wii MotionPlus enabled titles, notably Wii Sports Resort. NCAA Football should do well too, so it would be between these two titles that the number one spot is jostled for. Otherwise, business as usual, with an overall uplift as we get closer to the holiday period.

See you next month.

The May 2009 NPD figures are out for video game hardware and software sales in the US. Following a pretty disastrous April, all hope was on a recovery in May. With the critically acclaimed PS3 exclusive inFAMOUS being launched in the last week of May, it will also be interesting to see if it can help lead the recover, at least on the PS3 front, or was it yet again released too late in the month to make a huge dent (much like Killzone 2)? Read on the find out. The figures are from NPD, a marketing research firm that releases games console sale data every month.

The figures for US sales in May 2009 are below, ranked in order of number of sales (May 2008 figures also shown, including percentage change):

• DS: 633,500 (Total: 31.4 million; May 2008: 452,600 – up 40%)
• Wii: 289,500 (Total: 20.2 million; May 2008: 675,100 – down 57%)
• Xbox 360: 175,000 (Total: 15.2 million; May 2008: 186,600 – down 6%)
• PS3: 131,000 (Total: 7.7 million; May 2008: 208,700 – down 37%)
• PS2: 117,000 (Total: 44.1 million; May 2008: 132,700 – down 12%)
• PSP: 100,400 (Total: 15.2 million; May 2008: 182,300 – down 45%)

NPD May 2009 Game Console US Sales Figures

NPD Game Console Total US Sales Figures (as of May 2009)

My prediction from last month was:

Can a recovery take place in May? Looking at the Amazon top 10 charts now, it doesn’t look like a great month for games. PS3’s exclusive Infamous might make a dent, but it may come too late in May to make a huge difference to May’s figures. I’m going to predict a slight recovery for the PS3, as PS2 sales will start to drop again following the price cut, and PS3 has nowhere to go but up, especially if Infamous can help to lift sales up. Everything else the same as it was this month, I suppose.

I’m not often right. In fact, it almost never happens. But I think I was pretty spot on with my prediction. The PS3 did lift in sales, whether that’s down to inFAMOUS or not is hard to say but inFAMOUS did make the top 10. The PS2 did drop in sales as the expected boost given by the price drop deteriorated rather quickly. Everything else remains in a similar situation, with the DS down but still top, as the fever over the new DSi fades.

Having a look at the year on year comparison figures above (mostly in red), it was again a “bad” month if you do a straight comparison with the same time last year. But this is extremely misleading because May 2008 was a very good month for video games, despite May being a traditionally poor month for sales – GTA IV was still a hot item back then for one. So forgetting about the year to year figures, May 2009 was still a relatively poor month. DS sales remain strong thanks to the DSi, but having dropped by almost half compared to last month, sales will be back to “normal” in no time. Wii sales have started to behave much more like the other consoles, dropping with them and rising with them – the Wii had up until now performed miracles in sales that seemed to have made it immune to economic pressures and the fact that it’s not a new console anymore. But Nintendo will be happy with the software figures, as you’ll see later on.

Another very ‘meh’ month for Sony. PS3 sales improved, but it was still behind the Xbox 360 despite the PS3 getting the highly rated exclusive inFAMOUS. The software figures for inFAMOUS may have been affected by the limited release time it had in May, but hardware sale increases usually precede a popular title as people anticipate the release, and this could explain partly why the PS3 did increase in sales from the previous month – the only console to do so this month. But the amount of increase was not big enough, neither were the sales numbers for inFAMOUS. The PS2 got a reprieve last month thanks to price drops, but it continues on its road to oblivion this month. Sony should really just give up on this console already. Sony announced a new PSP console at E3, and this will drive up sales when it is released later in the year, but for now, the PSP has nowhere to go really as people wait for the new version (although price drops for the older model may help to spur sales in the coming months).

And finally onto Microsoft, who had a good E3 thanks to Project Natal (and the subsequent press coverage, including the live demo on Late Night with Jimmy Fallon).  But there were no exclusives, or price drops, and so nothing much changed for this month. In fact, sales were exactly the same as last month. But out of all the consoles that experienced year to year drops (that is, all except for the DS, but it doesn’t count because of the DSi), it experienced the least amount of decrease.

Let’s get to software. As mentioned earlier, Nintendo had reason to not be so worried about Wii hardware sales, because Wii software sales are still strong. Half of the top 10 were Wii games, with another DS game thrown in for good measure. And the better news is that two of the top selling Wii games were new to the list, EA Sports Active and Punch Out! – this is one area Nintendo wanted improvement on, as opposed to relying on the trifecta of Wii Play, Mario Kart and Wii Fit all the time. Microsoft should be fairly pleased as well, taking the number one spot for the second time this year, with the multi-platform UFC 2009. Sony would have wanted inFAMOUS to be higher up than 5th and selling only a third of the number one game of the month (which wasn’t even an exclusive). I will again point out that it was released too late in the months to make huge dent (why does Sony always do this?), but most sales happen in the first week and 175,900 is disappointing considering Killzone 2 got almost double this and the fact that it was an exclusive. I find it hard to believe that out of the nearly 8 million PS3 owners in the US, only such a small percentage decided to buy this highly rated and hyped game at release. And it’s not just the price though, because so many more wanted to by UFC 2009 on the PS3. Overall, the Wii had 43.2% of the top 10, the Xbox 360 had 30.8% and the PS3 had 19.6%. Here’s the complete list of the top 10 software sales:

1. UFC 2009 Undisputed (Xbox 360, THQ) – 679,600
2. Wii Fit w/Board (Wii, Nintendo) – 352,800
3. EA Sports Active (Wii, EA) – 345,800
4. UFC 2009 Undisputed (PS3, THQ) – 334,400
5. inFAMOUS (PS3, Sony) – 175,900
6. Pokemon Platinum (DS, Nintendo) – 168,900
7. Mario Kart w/ Wheel (Wii, Nintendo) – 158,300
8. Punch Out! (Wii, Nintendo) – 156,900
9. X-Men Origins: Wolverine Uncaged (Xbox 360, Activision) – 120,700
10. Wii Play w/ Remote (Wii, Nintendo) – 109,800

June is hard to predict. There should be an increase in sales from a seasonal point of view. Plus, there is also the release of Prototyped (think inFAMOUS but multi-platform, and much more exaggerated) and the Ghostbusters video game, and with inFAMOUS continue to be the top PS3 seller, it should all point to a better month. I don’t know if the E3 announcements will have any effect on sales, but most of the announcements aren’t for immediate product releases (apart from Nintendo’s Wii Motion Plus, but the Wii Sports Resort game which takes advantage of it doesn’t come out until July), so I don’t think there will be a huge effect, if any. So the prediction is the same as this month, with the PS3 numbers slightly higher still but maybe not high enough to beat the Xbox 360. I can see Prototype (the Xbox 360 version) being the top seller for the month, and it will be interesting to see how it stacks up against inFAMOUS which has received better review ratings (although the “100” ratings given out by a few places are a bit over the top).

See you next month.

The April 2009 NPD figures are out, and on the surface, it makes bad reading for the gaming industry. Sales of both hardware and software are down, and even more so compared to the same time last year. Is the gaming industry in trouble, or are the figures not really as bad as they seem? Read on the find out. The figures are from NPD, a marketing research firm that releases games console sale data every month.

The figures for US sales in April 2009 are below, ranked in order of number of sales (April 2008 figures also shown, including percentage change):

NPD April 2009 Game Console US Sales Figures

NPD Game Console Total US Sales Figures (as of April 2009)

My prediction from last month was:

I have no idea what’s on sale next month. I could check, but I’m lazy. Suffice to say, I don’t expect the situation to change much, although hardware sales could improve. Can the PS3 outsell it’s 2008 self? I’m going to say yes again to that, even though I was wrong last month. This is because April 2008 was a bad month for the PS3, the first signs that it wasn’t going to beat the 360 in 2008 like the first few months had promised. Sony will hope April 2009 will be a better month.

I was right. I was lazy and I should have checked. No, the PS3 once again did not out-sell its 2008 self. It didn’t even manage to outsell the PS2 this month. And the situation has changed, because everything is down, apart from the DS and the PS2.

Starting with what little good news we have this month. The DS did manage to outsell its 2008 self, but only because a new DS, the DSi, was released. But still, a 150% increase is impressive regardless of the reason behind it. The PS2 is the only other console to have increased in sales compared to the April 2008 figures. This I think is largely down to the recent price drop announced by Sony. If a small price drop for such an old console can show this kind of result, imagine what a price drop can do for a PS3? The rumours of a new PS3 “slim” with a lower price due to a cheaper manufacturing process may explain why Sony is reluctant to drop PS3 prices for now, and reports show that the PS3 is currently losing around $40 per console sold, and Sony can’t afford to increase its losses this financial year.

On to the bad news. The least bad this month is the Xbox 360 sales figures, which only dropped *only* 7% compared to last year, although it still meant a 47% month-to-month drop for the console. But compared to all the other consoles, it did well. The low price of the Xbox 360 may have something to do with this. The Wii, PSP and PS3 all recorded dismal efforts, falling both in month-to-month and year-to-year comparisons. The fact that the PS3 was outsold by the PS2 should ring alarm bells at Sony HQ. The Wii’s good run seems to have come to an end, although it was still comfortable the best selling non portable console. The PSP is going nowhere. Fast.

But to put everything in perspective, April 2008 was a good month for software at least, due to the release of GTA IV and Mario Kart for the Wii. So let’s not over analyse the April 2008 to 2009 comparison. April 2009 is a bad month, but it’s not as bad as it looks. 

Software wise, again due to April 2008 being a huge month, there is an overall drop in sales. In the top 10, Wii comfortably held the most market share, followed far behind by the Xbox 360, and the PS3 even further behind. Nintendo’s usual suspects, Wii Fit, Wii Play and Mario Kart, were responsible for this, and the only Wii titles in the top 10. Where are the third party titles, you have to wonder. April wasn’t a great months for hit releases either, with the sequel “The Godfather II” being the only notable release. It was the top selling Xbox 360 game, and outsold the PS3 version by 1.7:1 (the PS3 version was the top selling PS3 game, coming at 10th on the top 10 list). Resident Evil 5 for the Xbox 360 was again in the top 5, just behind The Godfather II – it’s strange to see an iconic PlayStation title doing much better on the Xbox 360 than on the PS3. RE5 on the 360 outsold the PS3 version by 1.6:1 last month, although the 360 enjoys a 2:1 lead over the PS3 in hardware numbers. This means, at least for the hit games, the PS3 is doing better than expected, which is some good news at last for Sony. The Wii had 42.7% of the top 10, Xbox 360 on 19.4% and the PS3 with only 4.6%. The rest, 33.3%, belonged to the DS, making April 2009 definitely one to remember for the portable console. Here’s the complete list of the top 10 software sales:

1. Wii Fit w/Board (Wii, Nintendo) – 471,000
2. Pokemon Platinum (DS, Nintendo) – 433,000
3. Mario Kart w/ Wheel (Wii, Nintendo) – 210,000
   
4. Wii Play w/ Remote (Wii, Nintendo) – 170,000
5. The Godfather II (Xbox 360, EA) – 155,000
6. Resident Evil 5 (Xbox 360, Capcom) – 122,000
   
7. New Super Mario Bros. (DS, Nintendo) – 119,000 
8. Mario Kart (DS, Nintendo) – 112,000
9. Guitar Hero Aerosmith (Xbox 360, Activision) – 110,000
10. The Godfather II (PS3, EA) – 91,000

Can a recovery take place in May? Looking at the Amazon top 10 charts now, it doesn’t look like a great month for games. PS3’s exclusive Infamous might make a dent, but it may come too late in May to make a huge difference to May’s figures. I’m going to predict a slight recovery for the PS3, as PS2 sales will start to drop again following the price cut, and PS3 has nowhere to go but up, especially if Infamous can help to lift sales up. Everything else the same as it was this month, I suppose.

See you next month.