DVDGuy’s Blog @ Digital Digest

Welcome to the November 2011 edition of our regular NPD US video game sales analysis. In this feature, we look at video game sales, both hardware and software, for the month of November 2011 based on data collected by the NPD. The holiday period truly begins at November, with the Black Friday sales, it comes an important indicator as to how each game console will do during the entire Holiday period. Last year, the Xbox 360 narrowly beat a resurgent Wii, while the PS3 languished in a distant third. Will this year be any different, and will the best selling game in the history of video games, Modern Warfare 3, help hardware sales? Read on the find out.

As NPD no longer releases full hardware sales figures, this feature is reliant on the game companies, namely Microsoft, Nintendo and Sony, to release their set of figures and based on “statement math” (that is, arithmetically calculate missing figures based on statements made). For November 2011, these are the statements made by the gaming companies:

• Nintendo reveals the Wii sold 860,000 units, with “more than 795,000” 3DS consoles, and “more than 350,000” units of DS (via PR email)
• Microsoft revealed 1.7 million Xbox 360 hardware units sold, with 49% of the home based console market share (source)
• Sony said that the PS3 hardware saw a “70% increase” in sales (via Patrick Seybold, Sr. Direcrtor of Corporate Communications at SCEA)

Luckily, all the statement maths added up this month, since from Microsoft and Nintendo’s statements, we can deduce the PS3 numbers to be around 900,000, and that falls into line with Sony’s “70% increase” statement (increase compared to the same time last year).

And so the figures for US sales in November 2011 are below, ranked in order of number of sales (November 2010 figures also shown, including percentage change):

• Xbox 360: 1,700,000 (Total: 30.9 million; November 2010: 1,370,000 – up 24%)
• PS3: 900,000 (Total: 18.9 million; November 2010: 530,000 – up 70%)
• Wii: 860,000 (Total: 37.7 million; November 2010: 1,270,000 – down 32%)

NPD November 2011 Game Console US Sales Figures

NPD Game Console Total US Sales Figures (as of November 2011)

My prediction from last month was:

It’s the holiday period proper, sales will be way up, and Modern Warfare 3 will help in this regard as it breaks all records. The Xbox 360, the preferred platform of MW3 and also with a new Halo game being released, will be the clear winner yet again, but it will be interesting to see if the Wii can have one last good holiday period, and there’s a new Zelda game too, so that always helps. The PS3 does have Uncharted 3 though. If I have to guess, I would say the PS3 will beat the Wii. The top games will be the ones I’ve already mentioned, plus Skyrim.

I think the above paragraph actually sums up November quite well.

The Xbox 360 was easily the clear winner, but the margin of victory was larger than most has expected. Most expected the Xbox 360 to be the best selling console, but with only moderate growth compared to the same month last year, the first holiday period for Kinect and the new “slim” Xbox 360. But Microsoft surprised everyone with a series of key price cuts, bundles, and sales, and just like how the Wii’s second holiday period was even better than the first thanks to its status as a “must-have” family gift, perhaps the Kinect is doing the same for Microsoft this time round. In any case, a 24% increase in sales compared to last November is nothing to be scoffed at, especially when last November was an amazing 67% up compared to the previous November. Here in Australia, Microsoft has also been super aggressive in discounting the Xbox 360, to prices that are practically half that of just a few months ago, and the Kinect bundle also seeing huge discounts at selected retailers. If this is the same strategy employed in other countries as well, then the Xbox 360 should have a great holiday period, and not just in the US (perhaps this is Microsoft’s response to PS3 sales that have nearly or already caught up to the 360 global sales numbers).

The PS3 also had a great November, although nowhere near as good as the Xbox 360, with the 360 almost selling twice as many units. The 70% increase compared to last November looks spectacular, but one has to take into account that last November, the PS3 sold fewer units than in 2009 (25% down actually). Compared to 2009, PS3 sales are up around 26%, so at the very least, last year’s trend has been reversed with the key price cut that came in the middle of the year. Sony also promoted the fact that PS3 software sales are up 30%, and that, more so than hardware numbers, is what Sony really likes to see (although hardware numbers obviously do help to raise the software numbers, and that’s more of a case now than the first few years of the PS3, when many used it as a cheap way to get a Blu-ray player).

It looks like 2010 was the last great holiday period for the Wii. While sales are not bad this year, they’re nowhere near the million+ figures from yesteryear. And this will be the last holiday period for the Wii as Nintendo’s lead console anyway, with the Wii U set to play a key role this time next year. Still, to label the Wii as a “loser” or “dead” is doing the console a disservice, since it still nearly outsell the PS3, and nobody it calling it a “dead” console.

On to software. As expected, MW3 completely dominated the sales charts, with incredibly, 9 million units of the game selling on all platforms, with over a billion dollars in sales. Battlefield 3 fell to 3rd place as a result, but it’s still the best selling Battlefield game in the series. Skyrim, the game many are already calling game of the year, managed to get second place and that’s probably quite impressive for a game in this genre, and certainly in the Elder Scrolls series, where it’s only taken a month for the latest installment to sell without half a million of the last installment’s lifetime sales number. Assassin’s Creed: Revelations, Saints Row: The Third contributed to the strong software line-up for November, making it the best November on record, despite recent trend suggesting that wouldn’t have been the case. For platform exclusives, Uncharted 3 did extremely well to get up to 7th place with 700,000 units sold, ahead of the new Zelda game at 600,000. Super Mario Land 3D and Halo: Combat Evolved Anniversary didn’t make the combined platforms top 10, but would have easily made the top 10 separated by SKU. Here’s the full software sales chart for November (new releases for November 2011 in bold):

1. Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 3 (Activision, Xbox 360, PS3, Wii, PC)
2. Elder Scrolls V: Skyrim (Bethesda, Xbox 360, PS3, PC)
3. Battlefield 3 (EA, Xbox 360, PS3, PC)
4. Assassin’s Creed: Revelations (Ubisoft, Xbox 360, PS3, PC)
5. Just Dance 3 (Ubisoft, Wii, Xbox 360)
6. Madden NFL 12 (EA, Xbox 360, PS3, Wii, PS2, PSP)
7. Uncharted 3: Drake’s Deception (Sony, PS3)
8. Saints Row: The Third (THQ, Xbox 360, PS3, PC)
9. The Legend of Zelda: Skyward Sword (Nintendo, Wii)
10. Batman: Arkham City (Warner Bros, Xbox 360, PS3)

My prediction for December? Same hardware ordering, and a software chart that looks very similar to this month’s, so there’s nothing much to add to that really.

Except for the obligatory, “see you next month”!

Welcome to the October 2011 edition of our regular NPD US video game sales analysis. In this feature, we look at video game sales, both hardware and software, for the month of October 2011 based on data collected by the NPD. As we approach the holiday period, some big name releases are and will be coming out, and a lot will be riding on a successful holiday period, especially due to the otherwise subdued year in sales that 2011 has been. Nintendo will hope for a good holiday period for the Wii, the last major holiday period for the console that traditionally does great during this time. Sony will hope that the PS3 can at least keep up pace with the Xbox 360 following the recent price cut in the US, even as global sales are catching up if not caught up already for the only console on the market with Blu-ray capabilities. For Microsoft, the holiday period is about maintaining and extending their sales lead in 2011. And so, October becomes an important month, made more so by the release of the mega-hit Battlefield 3.

As NPD no longer releases full hardware sales figures, this feature is reliant on the game companies, namely Microsoft, Nintendo and Sony, to release their set of figures and based on “statement math” (that is, arithmetically calculate missing figures based on statements made). For October 2011, these are the statements made by the gaming companies:

• Nintendo reveals the Wii sold nearly 250,000 units, more than 250,000 3DS consoles, and nearly 180,000 DS (via PR email)
• Microsoft revealed 393,000 Xbox 360 hardware units sold, with 44% of the home based console market share (source)
• Sony did not reveal any hardware figures

With only a rough estimate for the Wii numbers, it’s hard to come up with an exact figure for the PS3, but assuming Nintendo’s “nearly 250,000” is much closer than 250,000 than 240,000, then combined with the Microsoft released data (if 393,000 is 44%, then 100% is  893,182, and taking out the Wii and 360 numbers from this), we get roughly 250,000 units for PS3 sales.

And so the figures for US sales in October 2011 are below, ranked in order of number of sales (October 2010 figures also shown, including percentage change):

• Xbox 360: 393,000 (Total: 29.2 million; October 2010: 325,000 – up 21%)
• PS3: 250,000 (Total: 18 million; October 2010: 250,000 – no change)
• Wii: 250,000 (Total: 36.8 million; October 2010: 232,000 – up 8%)

NPD October 2011 Game Console US Sales Figures

NPD Game Console Total US Sales Figures (as of October 2011)

My prediction from last month was:

I think the hardware situation will remain largely the same. Games wise, Batman: Arkham City and Battlefield 3 go head to head, with Forza 4 on the Xbox 360 possible making the top 10 as well as a platform exclusive.

Fairly close to the reality, I suppose, although the strength in which Battlefield 3 sold probably surprised everyone, despite the hype suggesting it was always going to do well. And the only other “surprise” is the PS3 numbers, and how close it came to actually selling fewer units than the Wii (and it may have done so too, since our “statement maths” above isn’t too accurate based on roundings and precision errors).

Starting with the healthiest number, the Xbox 360 had another amazing month, as not only did it managed to easily beat the other two consoles, it also managed year-on-year growth compared to October 2010 – no mean feat considering we had the “Slim”, price cut and Kinect to give sales a bump, and nothing like that this year. But 21% growth is nothing to be scoffed at, and it’s clear that, at least in the US, the Xbox 360 is the dominant console of this generation, despite Wii still having quite a large lead at the moment (but if you look at the number of active players, the number of hit games, the online multiplayer scene, the multimedia hub features – the Wii is not in the same league as the Xbox 360). Global Xbox 360 sales, while still leading the PS3 probably at this point, may give up its lead sometime soon, but if you have to pick a clear winner for this generation, then based on the growth of the platform and the long term effects on the next generation and beyond, the Xbox 360 is a clear winner.

The PS3 is by no means a loser, and if Sony keep to their word of a 10-year product life for the console (and Microsoft follow Nintendo’s lead and release a new console before then), then the PS3 might still end up being the best selling console of this generation, at least in global sales. But compared to the last generation, in which the PS2 outsold the Xbox by more than a 6-to-1 margin (and outsold Nintendo’s GameCube by even more), then you can’t but feel that while PS3 may eventually “win”, the victory is somewhat hollow when you consider the decline from the totally dominating position the PlayStation platform was in the last gen. Of course, this kind of dominance would never really be long lasting (just ask Sega, or Nintendo before the Wii), but the company’s lack of focus on online gaming, too much focus on Blu-ray and the subsequent delay to the release of the console, the relative developer unfriendly platform (which was always going to be to Microsoft, a software company’s, advantage), the lack of attention to family/social gaming (the Wii sucks, but here’s Move, our version of it), and various setbacks including the recent PSN hack, were all mistakes that could have been prevented or at least mitigated. So coming into the holiday period, with sales flat compared to the same month last year, and battling the Wii to be a distant second place, it’s not where Sony wanted to be (they had hoped most PS2 owners would have upgraded to a PS3 by now, but instead, the Xbox 360 and the Wii stepped in to fill the “hardcore” and “family fun” void).

The Wii, for what it was, and what it has achieved, is also a huge success. Sure, most Wii consoles are now gathering dust somewhere (guilty as charged), but for a slightly enhanced version of the GameCube with a new innovative control system, it has done amazingly well. But much of it has been at the expense of losing all hardcore gamers to the other platforms, a situation Nintendo wants to address with the graphically powerful Wii U (because hardcore gamers keep playing, and keep buying games, not so much casual gamers who get distracted easily as soon as a new tablet or smartphone hits the market). If the Wii was about getting Nintendo back in the game, and a game where they were close to “going the way of Sega” in the last gen (the Xbox sold more units than the GameCube, despite it being a clunky first effort by a company that has never done console gaming, compared to the pro that is Nintendo).

Don’t know why this analysis has turned into a “look back at” type of deal, considering this generation still has a long way to go, but it just felt appropriate for some reason, as this may be the last holiday period where these 3 consoles compete in.

Let’s move on to game sales. Battlefield 3 broke all records (before MW3 will do the same this/next month), which is no surprise. BF3 fever affected me personally as well, having played and be completely pwned in the beta, I was out for more punishment and so bought a copy of the PC version. In fact, I was so caught up in the fever, I actually bought two copies (long story)! With 10 million copies shipped (as in to retailer, with 5 million of these actually “sold”), it’s a success. Batman: Arkham City, in any other month, would have been the clear winner, oh well. Again highlighting the dominance of the Xbox 360 in the US, two platform exclusive titles, the newly released Forza 4 and last month’s Gears of War 3, were in the top 10, a difficult proposition for single platform releases, as they were up against all platforms combined sales figures for the multi-platform games. Also interesting is that Just Dance 3 managed a top 10 entry, despite not being available on the PS3 until December. Ubisoft hasn’t said why the PS3 version is delayed, but I’m sure Microsoft will notch it up as a victory for Kinect over the Move. Here’s the full software sales chart for October (new releases for October 2011 in bold):

1. Battlefield 3 (EA, Xbox 360, PS3, PC)
2. Batman: Arkham City (Warner Bros, Xbox 360, PS3)
3. NBA 2K12 (Take-Two Interactive, Xbox 360, PS3, PS2, PSP, Wii, PC)
4. Rage (Bethesda, Xbox 360, PS3, PC)
5. Just Dance 3 (Ubisoft, Wii, Xbox 360)
6. Dark Souls (Namco, PS3, Xbox 360)
7. Madden NFL 12 (EA, Xbox 360, PS3, Wii, PS2, PSP)
8. Forza Motorsport 4 (Microsoft, Xbox 360)
9. Gears of War 3 (Microsoft, Xbox 360)
10. FIFA 12 (EA, Xbox 360, PS3, Wii, PS2, PSP, 3DS)

Time to make my usual prediction. It’s the holiday period proper, sales will be way up, and Modern Warfare 3 will help in this regard as it breaks all records. The Xbox 360, the preferred platform of MW3 and also with a new Halo game being released, will be the clear winner yet again, but it will be interesting to see if the Wii can have one last good holiday period, and there’s a new Zelda game too, so that always helps. The PS3 does have Uncharted 3 though. If I have to guess, I would say the PS3 will beat the Wii. The top games will be the ones I’ve already mentioned, plus Skyrim.

See you next month.

Welcome to the September 2011 edition of our regular NPD US video game sales analysis, by my calculation, the 53rd edition of this feature. In this feature, we look at video game sales, both hardware and software, for the month of September 2011 based on data collected by the NPD. The PS3 price cut took place half way through August, but in the September data, we now having a full month worth of PS3 sales at the now $50 lower price point, so we can finally see if it was able to beat the Xbox 360, which it might have done in August if the price cut had taken place a bit earlier. But the Xbox 360 has an ace up its sleeve this month, as we see a new version of one of its major exclusive franchises, Gears of War. Read on to find out who wins September.

As NPD no longer releases full hardware sales figures, this feature is reliant on the game companies, namely Microsoft, Nintendo and Sony, to release their set of figures and based on “statement math” (that is, arithmetically calculate missing figures based on statements made). For September 2011, these are the statements made by the gaming companies:

• Nintendo reveals the Wii sold 240,000 units, with 260,000 3DS consoles, and 145,000 DS (via PR email)
• Microsoft revealed 438,000 Xbox 360 hardware units sold, with 42% of the home based console market share (source)
• Sony did not reveal exact figures, but said that the PS3 hardware sale increase 20% year-on-year (Sony statement, via Senior Director of Corporate Communications at SCEA, Patrick Seybold)

Unfortunately for this month, Microsoft and Sony’s statements do conflict with each other a bit. Using Microsoft’s statement, PS3 sales can be deduced to be 364,857 units, but according to Sony’s own statement, the figure is more like 374,400 (20% more than September 2010’s 312,000). Obviously, there are rounding errors from all the company’s statements, so giving Sony the benefit of the doubt, we’ll presume the PS3 sales figure for September 2011 is the higher 374,400.

And so the figures for US sales in September 2011 are below, ranked in order of number of sales (September 2010 figures also shown, including percentage change):

• Xbox 360: 438,000 (Total: 28.8 million; September 2010: 483,989 – down 9.5%)
• PS3: 374,400 (Total: 17.7 million; September 2010: 312,000 – up 20%)
• Wii: 240,000 (Total: 36.6 million; September 2010: 254,000 – down 5.5%)

NPD September 2011 Game Console US Sales Figures

NPD Game Console Total US Sales Figures (as of September 2011)

My prediction from last month was:

I think the Xbox 360 will still come out as the top selling console for September 2011, mainly due to ‘Gear of War 3′, but the PS3 will definitely come closer than it did this month, and with ‘Resistance 3′, it too might benefit from a platform exclusive. The Wii will be third. Games wise, ‘Gear of War 3′ looks set to be a top seller, despite being a platform exclusive release. ‘Resistance 3′, on the other hand, doesn’t look to have the same effect, although it will still sell well. Combined platforms sales may even push ‘Dead Island’ to the top of the charts.

I got the hardware ordering spot on, although it really wasn’t that hard to predict what was going to happen. The PS3 did get closer to the Xbox 360 sales, but it’s clear now that the 360 is now the dominant console in the US, and not even a PS3 price cut can affect its status it seems (unless that price cut was a more substantial $100, for example). For the game predictions, Madden was actually the top selling title, followed by Gears of War 3. And ‘Dead Island’ did manage to put its way high up in the charts, in 3rd place. Resistance 3, on the other hand, only finished 7th, not the worst result, but the average critical response to the game may have had some effect.

So the Xbox 360 continues its winning streak, by not only becoming the dominant home based console, but it’s also the best selling console for September, period. Looking at the life to date sales numbers, the Xbox 360 continues to pull ahead of the PS3, and continues to get closer to the Wii, to the point where the difference between the Wii and 360 numbers is actually less now than the difference between the 360 and PS3 numbers. Because of the Xbox 360’s dominance with multi-platform releases in North America, namely that if the same game is on multiple platforms, the Xbox 360 version is usually the most popular, the hit releases planned for the next few month starting with Batman: Arkham City and Battlefield 3 next month, and MW3 and Elder Scrolls V: Skyrim in November, will all benefit the Xbox 360 more. The it appears that the 360’s exclusives, such as Halo and Gears of War, appear to be far more popular than the PS3’s line up, including ‘Resistance’ this month.

But you cannot say the PS3 performed badly for September – after all, it was the only console to see year-on-year growth, but just like how the other consoles found it difficult to compete with the PS2 in the last generation, the PS3 is having a hard time trying to catch up to the Xbox 360 (and Wii, for the early parts anyway) in this generation (although the gap between the consoles is much less pronounced than the last generation). Taking off my fanboy hat for a moment, the truth is that both the PS3 and Xbox 360 are excellent game consoles with excellent game line ups and fantastic multimedia capabilities. Each console has their own pros and cons, and thanks to the Xbox 360’s head-start, the Wii’s (then) innovative control system, and the PS3’s Blu-ray drive, we now have a much more balanced set of competitors, and that can only be good for gamers, who should consider themselves lucky to be able to enjoy so many great games in the last few years.

The Wii, right now, is the only loser, but it’s not something Nintendo are unaware of, and the Wii-U will set to address many of the shortcomings of the Wii console, but also maintain Nintendo’s reputation for producing fun, family based games.

For game sales, Madden’s delay from August to September allowed it to rule the roost for the month, but Gears of War 3 would be considered the best selling Xbox 360 game for the month, the Madden ranking includes all platform sales. Dead Island was the only original franchise in the top 10, and it did well to come in 3rd, but it also shows that, unlike movies, gaming sequels are actually welcomed by gamers, and usually are huge improvements on the original, not just an opportunity to cash-in (take note Hollywood). FIFA’s high ranking highlights the growing popularity of “soccer” games, beating NHL 11, something it didn’t do last year this time. And a 10th place for Warhammer 40,000: Space Marine is a good result for the franchise. Electronic Arts are the real winners, with 3 of the top 10 titles belonging to them, and the all important first place too. Here’s the full software sales chart for September:

1. Madden NFL 12 (EA, Xbox 360, PS3, Wii, PS2, PSP)
2. Gears of War 3 (Microsoft, Xbox 360)
3. Dead Island (Deep Silver, Xbox 360, PS3, PC)
4. FIFA 12 (EA, Xbox 360, PS3, Wii, PS2, PSP, 3DS)
5. NHL 12 (EA, Xbox 360, PS3)
6. Deus Ex: Human Revolution (Square Enix, Xbox 360, PS3, PC)
7. Resistance 3 (Sony, PS3)
8. Lego Star Wars III: The Clone Wars (LucasArts, Wii, NDS, Xbox 360, 3DS, PS3, PSP, PC)
9. Call of Duty: Black Ops (Activision Blizzard, Xbox 360, PS3, Wii, NDS,PC)
10. Warhammer 40,000: Space Marine (THQ, Xbox 360, PS3, PC)

Time to make my usual prediction. I think the hardware situation will remain largely the same. Games wise, Batman: Arkham City and Battlefield 3 go head to head, with Forza 4 on the Xbox 360 possible making the top 10 as well as a platform exclusive.

See you next month.

Welcome to the August 2011 edition of the NPD US Video Game Sales Analysis, where we look at video game sales, both hardware and software, for the month of August 2011 based on data collected by the NPD. Half way through August, Sony surprised the market with a $50 price cut for all of its PS3 models, and so for the first time, we can actually analyze the effect of this price cut and see if it allows Sony’s PS3, languishing in third place amongst the home based consoles, to make a much needed comeback.

As NPD no longer releases full hardware sales figures, this feature is reliant on the game companies, namely Microsoft, Nintendo and Sony, to release their set of figures and based on “statement math” (that is, arithmetically calculate missing figures based on statements made). For August 2011, these are the statements made by the gaming companies:

• Xbox 360 sold 308,000 units, “maintaining the # 1 console spot in the U.S. for 2011” (source: @majornelson)
• Xbox 360 holds 43% home based console market share (Microsoft statement)
• Wii sells “more than 190,000” units (Nintendo press release)
• Sony blames “inventory restraint” for sales in the first half of August, but “PS3 hardware sales were very strong the last two weeks of the month following the $50 price cut” (Sony statement)

Knowing both the Xbox 360 and Wii hardware numbers, and also knowing that the Xbox 360 held 43% of the home based console market share, the PS3 hardware sale is calculated to be an estimated 218,000 units.

And so the figures for US sales in August 2011 are below, ranked in order of number of sales (August 2010 figures also shown, including percentage change):

• Xbox 360: 308,000 (Total: 28.4 million; August 2010: 356,700 – down 14%)
• PS3: 218,000 (Total: 17.5 million; August 2010: 226,000 – down 4%)
• Wii: 190,000 (Total: 36.3 million; August 2010: 244,300 – down 22%)

NPD August 2011 Game Console US Sales Figures

NPD Game Console Total US Sales Figures (as of August 2011)

My prediction from last month was:

With the PS3 price drop coming in just a few days ago, this is just the sort of major event that makes predictions extremely difficult. There’s no doubt in my mind that the PS3 won’t come last again (Wii has the third spot amongst the home based consoles locked up), but the main question is can the PS3 outsell the Xbox 360? The price cut being only $50, and with no new console coming with the price cut like two years ago, maybe it will just come short, but it will be a close run race that’s for sure. For games, again, there’s nothing really of note. Usually at this time of the year, Madden NFL dominates, but with the Madden NFL 12 coming at the end of August, it may not have enough time to make such a major impact this time, although it will probably still be the best seller based on pre-orders alone. No More Heroes: Heroes’ Paradise for the PS3 and Deus Ex: Human Revolution seems to be the only two other notable releases in August.

The PS3 didn’t come last, and the Wii did, but this was an easy prediction to make. But it appears I overestimated the effect of the $50 price cut, and with Xbox 360 sales growing compared to July, the race wasn’t a “close run” one at all, with the Xbox 360 still comfortably retaining first place amongst the home based consoles.  For software, Madden NFL 12’s delay meant that it was not even included in August’s stats as it fell outside of the NPD August sales window (August is counted as a 4 week reporting period by the NPD, lasting from the 31st of July to the 27th of August), while of the two notable new releases, Dues Ex: Human Revolution was predictably the top selling title.

Let’s focus first on the PS3 numbers, and just how much of an effect the $50 price cut has had. On the surface, it looks like the effect was minimal, but dig a little deeper, and the sales bump will seem a bit more robust. Since the price cut only occurred half way through August, the first thing we need to do is to establish a marker for pre price cut sales. Generally (and historically) speaking, there is very little difference between July and August sales, but August tends to sell a few more consoles than July. Since nothing dramatic actually occurred for the Xbox 360, and the only effects being negative (due to price drop of PS3, encouraging more gamers to buy the PS3 over the Xbox 360), the rise of 360 units from 35-day reporting period of July to the 28-day reporting period August 0f roughly 11% could indicate “normal” seasonal growth.

Or not. So let’s take half of this number and say that, had the PS3 not had a price cut, it too would have grown 5.5%. This would make PS3 sales roughly 156,000 units for the whole month of August, or 5,571 units per day, had the price drop not occurred. The price cut was announced on the 16th of August, and so leaving the price cut only 12 days to affect the August NPD figures (again due to the premature end of the NPD reporting period at the end of august), with the first 16 days of the month “business as usual”. This means that prior to the price cut, 89,143 PS3 units were sold, leaving 128,587 being sold after the price cut. This means an increase from 5,571 units per day to 10,716 units per day (127,587 divided by the 12 days of the price cut) after the price cut, practically doubling sales as a result. This means that had the PS3 price cut lasted for the whole 28 day reporting period, PS3 sales would be almost exactly 300,000 units, only 8,000 units shy of the Xbox 360. Had I simply assumed that PS3 sales would have stayed completely flat between July and the first 16 days of August, PS3 unit sales may have reached as high as 311,000 units.

September would have told us a lot more about the full effect of the PS3 price cut, but the Xbox 360 exclusive ‘Gears of War 3’ should help Xbox 360 hardware numbers more than any other PS3 release would do for the PS3 hardware numbers. And with similar high profile releases that generally favour the Xbox 360 in the coming month, the bump from the PS3 price cut may just fall short of making the PS3 more popular than the Xbox 360 during this holiday period.

For the Xbox 360, a solid 11% rise from July to August allowed it to sit comfortably as the best selling home based console, but as noted earlier, it could have been different if the PS3 price cut had come earlier. Hardware sales are down some 14% compared to the same month last year, but again, this is mostly due to the “Slim” sales bump back then.

For the Wii though, August was just as bad as July, and it looks like from this point onwards, it will be third place out of three.  The Wii declined the most compared to August 2010 than any of the other consoles, which means that the rumours surrounding the rushing of the Wii U to market, and the “development hell” (source: n4g.com) that ensues, might show Nintendo is more worried about the Wii decline than they’re letting on.

For game sales, August was a disappointing month, due to the lack of new releases, and the delay of Madden NFL 12 to the September reporting period. So Deus Ex: Human Revolution was actually best selling title across all platforms, even though it was only released for 5 days in the August reporting period. The ‘Just Dance’ franchise continues to be the best selling Wii exclusive titles, but in better times, a Nintendo first party title, like Mario Kart (now bundled with consoles) or Wii Play would have been one of the titles. Here’s the full software sales chart for August:

1. Deus Ex: Human Revolution (Square Enix, Xbox 360, PS3, PC)
2. NCAA Football (Take 2, Xbox 360, PS3)
3. Call of Duty: Black Ops (Activision Blizzard, Xbox 360, PS3, Wii, NDS,PC)
4. Phineas and Ferb: Across the 2nd (Disney, NDS, Wii, PS3)
5. Cars 2 (Disney, NDS, Wii, Xbox 360, PS3, PC)
6. Just Dance Summer Party (Ubisoft, Wii)
7. Just Dance 2 (Ubisoft, Wii)
8. Lego Pirates of the Caribbean (Disney, Wii, Xbox 360, NDS, PS3, 3DS, PSP, PC)
9. The Legend of Zelda Ocarina of Time 3D (Nintendo, NDS)
10. Zumba Fitness (Majesco, Wii, Xbox 360, PS3)

Time to make a prediction. I think the Xbox 360 will still come out as the top selling console for September 2011, mainly due to ‘Gear of War 3’, but the PS3 will definitely come closer than it did this month, and with ‘Resistance 3’, it too might benefit from a platform exclusive. The Wii will be third. Games wise, ‘Gear of War 3’ looks set to be a top seller, despite being a platform exclusive release. ‘Resistance 3’, on the other hand, doesn’t look to have the same effect, although it will still sell well. Combined platforms sales may even push ‘Dead Island’ to the top of the charts.

See you next month.

Welcome to the July 2011 edition of the NPD US video game sales analysis. For July, only Microsoft provided actual figures for hardware sales, stating 277,000 units of the Xbox 360 was sold, and that their console accounted for 45% of the home based console market share. Later on, Wedbush Securities analyst Michael Pachter revealed that Wii sales had dropped 25% compared to the same month last year. With these three facts, we can then deduce the PS3 sales figures, for which Sony has yet again remained silent on. For those that are new to this, this analysis looks at US video games sales figures compiled by NPD, unreleased by NPD due to pressure from the gaming companies, but then leaked by various sources, including gaming companies, if/when it suits them.

The figures for US sales in July 2011 are below, ranked in order of number of sales (July 2010 figures also shown, including percentage change):

• Xbox 360: 277,000 (Total: 28.1 million; July 2010: 443,500 – down 38%)
• Wii: 190,500 (non official estimate) (Total: 36.1 million; July 2010: 253,900 – down 25%)
• PS3: 148,000 (non official estimate) (Total: 17.3 million; July 2010: 214,500 – down 31%)

NPD July 2011 Game Console US Sales Figures

NPD Game Console Total US Sales Figures (as of July 2011)

My prediction from last month was:

I think the Xbox 360 will experience its first year-on-year decline in ages, but still comfortably stay at the top of the home based console hardware sales charts, leaving the Wii and PS3 to fight it out for second and third place, and I think the Wii might be better positioned to win for some reason. It’s NCAA Football season again, so it will be the top seller, but otherwise, not a huge month for games again.

An almost perfect prediction, a rare event indeed. The Xbox 360 did experience its first major year-on-year decline, and it actually was the biggest fall out of the three home based consoles, but despite this, it still managed to comfortably be the best selling home console for July 2011, which is on record as the worst performing month since October 2006. And as I had predicted, the Wii won the fight against the PS3 for second place, but in full honestly, both of these consoles performed horribly, adding to the misery that is July. And new hit games were far a few between in July, and so game sales slumped as well.

As expected, the Xbox 360 saw its first major year-on-year decline since 2009 (I think). It is expected because this time last year, the new Xbox 360 “Slim” had just been released, and the sales surge from this event actually managed to give the console a 119% lift in sales compared to July 2009. So obviously, with no new consoles in July 2011, year-on-year sales dropped as a result, and I suspect this will continue for a few more month. The Xbox 360 was still the best selling home based console, with a massive 45% of the home based console market share for July – that it sold almost twice as many units as the PS3 is testament to its growing dominance.

Despite a price drop, the Wii languished in a distant second place, dropping 25% in sales from the same month last year (which was even compared to July 2009). There’s not much positive things one can say about the Wii, and coupled with alarmingly decreasing DS/3DS sales (prompting Nintendo to drop prices on the 3Ds only a couple of month after release), Nintendo will hope there are no delays to the release plans of the Wii U.

As for the PS3, this appears to be the worst month since July 2009, with a 30% sales drop compared to last year. And unlike the Xbox 360, the PS3 really has no excuses. There’s still growth between 2009 and 2011 (of around 20.5%, compared to the Xbox 360’s 36.5%), but this is comparing the pre-Slim and pre-price cut PS3, with the current one. Which is probably why Sony has just announced a price cut for the PS3, which should allow sales to surge a bit.

So overall a pretty bad month for video games, but with the economy the way it is and with most of the consoles many years into its release cycle, it’s probably not unexpected. For games, it’s been a quiet month as well, with NCAA Football dominating as it usually does at this time of the year. Just Dance 2 for the Wii continues to show off its staying power in the top 10, this time coming 5th. Here’s the full software sales chart for July:

1. NCAA Football (Take 2, Xbox 360, PS3)
2. Cars 2 (Disney, NDS, Wii, Xbox 360, PS3, PC)
3. Call of Duty: Black Ops (Activision Blizzard, Xbox 360, PS3, Wii, NDS,PC)
4. Lego Pirates of the Caribbean (Disney, Wii, Xbox 360, NDS, PS3, 3DS, PSP, PC)
5. Just Dance 2 (Ubisoft, Wii)
6. Major League Baseball 2K11 (Take 2, Xbox 360, Wii, NDS, PS3, PS2, PSP, PC)
7. Zumba Fitness (Majesco, Wii, Xbox 360, PS3)
8. Fallout: New Vegas (Bethesda, Wii, Xbox 360, PS3)
9. New Super Mario Bros. (Nintendo, NDS)
10. Mortal Kombat (Warner Bros., Xbox 360, PS3)

Prediction time. With the PS3 price drop coming in just a few days ago, this is just the sort of major event that makes predictions extremely difficult. There’s no doubt in my mind that the PS3 won’t come last again (Wii has the third spot amongst the home based consoles locked up), but the main question is can the PS3 outsell the Xbox 360? The price cut being only $50, and with no new console coming with the price cut like two years ago, maybe it will just come short, but it will be a close run race that’s for sure. For games, again, there’s nothing really of note. Usually at this time of the year, Madden NFL dominates, but with the Madden NFL 12 coming at the end of August, it may not have enough time to make such a major impact this time, although it will probably still be the best seller based on pre-orders alone. No More Heroes: Heroes’ Paradise for the PS3 and Deus Ex: Human Revolution seems to be the only two other notable releases in August.

See you next month.