DVDGuy’s Blog @ Digital Digest

Welcome to the NPD Sales Figure Analysis, the second edition to not actually have access to the really useful NPD sales figures. But through leaks and whatnot, we have just barely enough to get an analysis out. We you get lemons … All the figures are collected and calculated by NPD.

The figures for US sales in October 2010 are below, ranked in order of number of sales (October 2009 figures also shown, including percentage change):

• Xbox 360: 325,000 (Total: 22.2 million; October 2009: 249,700 – up 30%)
• PS3: 250,000 (Total: 13.7 million; October 2009: 320,600 – down 22%)
• Wii: 232,000  (Total: 30.6 million; October 2009: 506,900 – down 54%)

NPD October 2010 Game Console US Sales Figures

NPD Game Console Total US Sales Figures (as of October 2010)

My prediction from last month was:

I loathe to make a prediction, because there might not even be figures next month to check whether I was right or not, but if there are figures, then I expect the Xbox 360 to still hold a sales lead over the PS3, which will outsell the Wii again. The new Fallout game, Fallout New Vegas, should do very well, with more copies being sold for the Xbox 360 (not that we have any way of telling). Fable III, the Xbox 360 exclusive, should also do well and again help the Xbox 360 console sales just like this month’s exclusive.

Lukily, there were just enough leaks this month to check against my prediction, and it seems I was correct in predicting the order of hardware sales at least. The Xbox 360 was again the best selling home console of the month, and the Wii was again the worst. Both Fallout New Vegas and Fable III did well on the Xbox 360, and so as predicted, helped the console sales.

This month makes it 5 months in a row that the Xbox 360 has retained the best selling home console crown. That’s a feat only achieved by the Wii, and it is entirely down to shrewd marketing on Microsoft’s behalf. It all started with the surprise announcement of the Xbox 360 “Slim” back in June, and kept on going with Halo Reach, and now Fable III. And so while everyone predicted this would be the year for the PS3, due to the more numerous exclusives they had, in the end, some carefully timed releases was all Microsoft needed. And with early Kinect figures showing that it’s selling extremely well ahead of the holiday period, possibly beating the Move if the early figures are correct, then this holiday should be a good one for Microsoft. For the hardware numbers, it actually represented a 30% increase compared to the same month last year, the only console to managed to do this. But looking further back, this month’s numbers are actually 12% down compared to the same month in 2009, so the weakening hardware sales is a serious concern for the industry in general. However, if Move or Kinect are  successes, then this may lead to more PS3 and Xbox 360 console sales, as family/casual gamers get in on the act. I would say that the Xbox 360 has more to benefit than the PS3, since the Xbox 360’s image as a console only for hardcore gamers would benefit more from Kinect’s success than the PS3 from Move, as many already use the PS3 for activities other than hardcore gaming (as a Blu-ray player/media hub, mainly). And of course, Kinect is more of a departure, and thus upgrade, from the Wii than the Move, and this may be more attractive to families looking to move on from the Wii (they certainly don’t want more of the same, which the PS3 Move represents, even though this perception is not correct – but for those that also need a Blu-ray player/media hub, the PS3 may be also quite attractive).

But whatever happens, the Wii is the loser in all of this. Nintendo has hinted at the successor to the console once it sells 15 million more units, but at the current rate of sales, it could take years. The holiday period will tell us more about the fate of the Wii, but if it doesn’t at least regain some of the lost sales this year. The Wii is traditionally a strong seller during the holidays, when families are looking for appropriate gifts, but with Move and Kinect, nothing is certain this holiday sales period. And if the Wii doesn’t do well, then expect Nintendo to speed up their plans to introduce the Wii 2. As to what the Wii 2 will include, nobody really knows at the moment. Some say it will have a Blu-ray drive, it will most likely support 1080p HD, but even if that were all true and that the controller is made more accurate than the Move, it still feels like Nintendo is playing catch-up now, instead of leading. Perhaps they will also take a page from Kinect’s playbook and introduce controller-less gaming, but even this is catch-up. So what can the Wii 2 bring that makes it better than the Move or Kinect? For me, I can’t see much that they can do to improve on either of these two systems, but Nintendo are more than capable of surprising the market, so don’t rule them out just yet. In any case, Wii sales were down 54% compared to last year, the decline is actually speeding up compared to recent month. And it’s down a whopping 71% compared to two years ago, when sales apparently peaked.

For Sony, the PS3 continues its post-Slim/price-cut decline, dropping 22% compared to the same time last year. Sony has been trumpeting their software sales this month, saying it’s the only platform to have software growth (50%), but most of that was down to how poorly PS3 games were selling last year. The PS3 actually recorded a modest gain compared to two years ago, the only console to be able to do it, but again, that was mainly down to how poorly it was selling back then. The slim/price-cut put Sony back into the game just when it looked like it might have been game over, but it still isn’t winning. However, positive sale reports for Move, with sales up 15% compared to last month when it was officially launched, may help the console at the expense of the Wii as discussed above. The 15% figure is good because traditionally after launch, sales do drop since the launch month includes all pre-orders as well. However, the Move was only released for half a month in September, whereas the October figures are for a whole month, plus the fact that as we get closer to the holiday period, sales naturally increase. These two factors means we still need to look at the next few months of Move sales before we can declare it a total success, with the most important months being the first few of next year, to see if the Move has staying power.

Let’s move onto software sales, which without the detailed NPD stats we’ve all gotten used to, makes analysis incredibly difficult. We only have figures for the Xbox 360 exclusives, Fable III and Halo Reach, and of course the chart featuring the list of best selling games (based on total sales for all platforms). The last Fable game sold 790,000 copies in the first month, so the 580,000 figure for Fable III can only be considered average. But for the multi-platform releases, like NBA 2K11, Fallout New Vegas and Medal of Honor, you can pretty much expect the Xbox 360 versions to have outsold the PS3 versions. Here’s the chart:

1. NBA 2K11 (Take-Two Interactive, Xbox 360, PS3, PS2, PSP, Wii, PC)
2. Fallout: New Vegas (Bethesda Softworks, Xbox 360, PS3, PC)
3. Medal of Honor (Electronic Arts, Xbox 360, PS3, PC)
4. Fable III (Microsoft, Xbox 360) – 580,000
5. Star Wars: The Force Unleashed II (LucasArts, Xbox 360, PS3, WII, PC, NDS)
6. Halo: Reach (Microsoft, Xbox 360) – 315,000
7. Just Dance 2 (Ubisoft, Wii)
8. FIFA Soccer 11 (Electronic Arts, PS3, Xbox 360, Wii, PS2, PSP, NDS, PC)
9. Madden NFL 11 (Electronic Arts, Xbox 360, PS3, WII, PS2, PSP)
10. WWE Smackdown vs. Raw 2011 (THQ, PS3, Xbox 360, PS2, WII, PSP)

Prediction? The Xbox 360 to still be the winner thanks to Kinect, with a slight comeback for the Wii, and may even be enough to knock the PS3 off second place and challenge the Xbox 360. Call of Duty: Black Ops will dominate the software charts, again favouring the Xbox 360, with Sony’s long (and I mean long) awaited GT5 doing well too. Other notable releases in a busy month include Donkey Kong Country Returns, Assassin’s Creed: Brotherhood.

See you next month (hopefully).

I broke the bad news in the last Weekly News Roundup, that NPD will no longer be releasing unit sales figures publicly, which makes writing this analysis feature ever more difficult. But thanks to leaks, I am still able to present some kind of analysis this week, although with many figures missing. Still, it should be enough to paint a broad picture of the video gaming industry in the US for September 2010. All the figures are collected and calculated by NPD, but the posted figures are leaked by manufacturers and other analysts (the PS3 and Wii figures were released by Wedbush Morgan analyst Michael Pachter). PSP and DS figures were unavailable for this month.

The figures for US sales in September 2010 are below, ranked in order of number of sales (September 2009 figures also shown, including percentage change):

• Xbox 360: 483,989 (Total: 21.8 million; September 2009: 352,600 – up 37%)
• PS3: 312,000 (Total: 13.5 million; September 2009: 491,800 – down 37%)
• Wii: 254,000  (Total: 30.3 million; September 2009: 462,800 – down 45%)

NPD September 2010 Game Console US Sales Figures

NPD Game Console Total US Sales Figures (as of September 2010)

My prediction from last month was:

September = Halo Reach. That’s what next month will be all about. The fact is that, as I type, the top four items in Amazon’s Video Games section are all Halo Reach related (standard, limited, legendary editions, plus the 360 Halo Reach console bundle), just shows how dominant it will be in September’s figures. So expect the Xbox 360 to remain on the top of the console pile hardware wise too, and possibly the best month since, well, the last Halo release. Halo Reach will overshadow Sony’s launch of the Move unfortunately, although it’s doing well to just hang in around 10th, or just outside of it. The Sports Champions bundle should be counted in the software charts (in the same way Wii Fit Plus is in there), so it should be in the top 10 (especially when the top 3 will be condensed into a single entry for Halo Reach). It will be a very interesting month, I feel.

Heh, it really was an interesting month, although I definitely didn’t predict that NPD would stop releasing unit sales figures (although they had threatened to do so on many occasions before). But September was all about Halo Reach, that’s for certain, and thanks to it, Xbox 360 sales were up compared to the same time last year, the only console to record year-on-year growth. Not quite recording breaking sales figures for the Xbox 360, but it was the best month in 2010. And yes, it did overshadow Sony’s PlayStation Move, although it did well enough to help accessories sales to grow, despite Sports Champions either not in the top 10 or not counted as software.

To expand on the Xbox 360 figures, it had year-on-year growth of 37%. The timing of the Slim version of the console, and the console’s exclusive big hitter of the year, Halo Reach, couldn’t have been planned any better. And with Kinect going on sale soon, the next few months could all be about the Xbox 360, unless Sony or Nintendo pulls one out of the hat (ie. price cuts). It’s worth noting that the 37% year-on-year growth is on top of a 2% year-on-year growth experienced for the same month last year, so consistent growth is why the Xbox 360 is now looking pretty healthy indeed.

Many might be shocked to see the huge drop in sales for the PS3, but there is no concern. September 2009 was the first full month that included PS3 Slim and the price cut into the figures, and so comparing a year old SKU to a brand new and (at that time) recently discounted SKU, is not really fair (just like this time next year, the Xbox 360 year-on-year figures would probably show a decline, unless Kinect really takes off, and I mean to like earlier Wii levels).  And this is why I’ve always mentioned a caveat when talking about the huge year-on-year growth figures experienced in the last year, since we were not comparing apples to apples, but rather cheap slims to expensive fats, and that if you look at sales figures from two years ago, sales figures aren’t up by a huge percent normally. Which is why, despite the year-on-year sales drop, the PS3 actually had a good month and was up 34% compared to two years ago (very much comparable to the Xbox 360’s 39%, when comparing the same period). And this is why it took second place, ahead of the Wii. Without detailed stats, I can’t tell much well the Move bundle performed, but the accessories sector grew by 13%, the only sector to grow (both console hardware and software sales were down, 19 and 8 percent respectively), and I would suspect a large part of it is due to the Move. And some of the 34% growth compared to 2008 is probably down to Move, since for last month, the same comparison (August 2010 to August 2008) only yielded a 22% sales growth.

So the news just gets worse for the Nintendo Wii. Down 45% from last year, which at that time was down 33% from 2008 (so from 2010 to 2008, that’s a decline of 64%!). But the Wii still has a 8.5 million hardware lead over the Xbox 360, and so even at the current rate of decline, it will take some effort for the Xbox 360 to take the lead, but not an impossible task if Kinect manages to win over the casual gaming crowd. This, I believe, is the first time both the Xbox 360 and the PS3 has outsold the Wii, and it’s definitely not a good sign, especially this is the first month in which a competitor’s motion gaming system hit the market. The Wii 2 can’t arrive soon enough for Nintendo.

Onto software sales. Without unit sale stats, I can only give you the top 10 ranking, and this ranking is for title based, and does not separate them into individual SKUs or platforms, making the rankings much less useful as a tool to compare the different platforms, less they be platform exclusives. But I do have the sales figure for Halo Reach. The last Halo instalment sold 3.3 million copies, only the third game to do so (the other two were Modern Warfare 2, and Halo 3), and this figure didn’t even include the games that were bundled with special editions of the Xbox 360 console. So despite having more platform exclusives, the PS3 did not completely overwhelm the Xbox 360 in terms of software sales this year, thanks to Xbox 360 exclusives such as Halo series, and well selling multi-platformers like MW2. Here’s the new chart:

1. Halo: Reach (Microsoft, Xbox 360) – 3,300,000
2. Madden NFL 11 (Electronic Arts, Xbox 360, PS3, PS2, Wii, PSP)
3. Dead Rising 2 (Capcom, Xbox 360, PS3, PC)
4. NHL 11 (Electronic Arts, Xbox 360, PS3)
5. FIFA Soccer 11 (Electronic Arts, Xbox 360, PS3, PS2, PSP, NDS)
6. Kingdom Hearts: Birth By Sleep (Square Enix, PSP)
7. Mafia II (Take-Two, Xbox 360, PS3, PC)
8. Spider-Man: Shattered Dimensions (Activision Blizzard, PS3, Xbox 360, NDS, Wii)
9. Metroid: Other M (Nintendo, Wii)
10. Call Of Duty: Modern Warfare 2 (Activision Blizzard, Xbox 360, PS3, PC)

I loathe to make a prediction, because there might not even be figures next month to check whether I was right or not, but if there are figures, then I expect the Xbox 360 to still hold a sales lead over the PS3, which will outsell the Wii again. The new Fallout game, Fallout New Vegas, should do very well, with more copies being sold for the Xbox 360 (not that we have any way of telling). Fable III, the Xbox 360 exclusive, should also do well and again help the Xbox 360 console sales just like this month’s exclusive. And just checking Amazon right now, the Kinect bundle is in the top 10, which bodes well for the kit when it is released in November.

See you next month (maybe).

It’s August already, and we’re quickly approaching the holiday season. This holiday season is even more interesting because we have new motion gaming accessories from both Sony and Microsoft, both wanting to challenge Nintendo’s dominance in the casual gaming market. With the PlayStation Move being released in September, and Kinect in November, the months before is all about building enough momentum and hoping that the new accessories help one console get over the line, in terms of being the most popular console during the holiday season. And unlike last year, there are no signs pointing to a clear winner for this holiday season – any of the home consoles can win it – so it’s even more important to have a good August and September to lead up to the crucial October, November and December months. The figures are from NPD, a marketing research firm that releases games console sale data every month.

The figures for US sales in August 2010 are below, ranked in order of number of sales (August 2009 figures also shown, including percentage change):

• Xbox 360: 356,700 (Total: 21.4 million; August 2009: 215,400 – up 66%)
• DS: 342,700 (Total: 43.3 million; August 2009: 552,900 – down 38%)
• Wii: 244,300  (Total: 30.1 million; August 2009: 277,400 – down 12%)
• PS3: 226,000 (Total: 13.2 million; August 2009: 210,000 – up 8%)
• PSP: 79,400 (Total: 17.5 million; August 2009: 140,300 – down 43%)

NPD August 2010 Game Console US Sales Figures

NPD Game Console Total US Sales Figures (as of August 2010)

My prediction from last month was:

Looking at the Amazon charts, the new Xbox 360 4GB isn’t actually doing fantastically, and it’s being outsold by the 250GB. So while most people are predicting that it would be another month where the Xbox 360 rules, I’m not as certain. I think sales will do well, but it might be the case of things being very close, with the new 4GB probably just allowing the Xbox 360 to sneak to top spot. In games, NCAA Football is usually followed by Madden NFL, the 11th version, and that will always do well. But otherwise, it’s another slow month before the busy holiday period begins, so the top 10 should look pretty familiar.

Well, it was pretty close at the top, but the Xbox 360 still managed to beat the DS by 14,000 units, even as it recorded a month to month drop. And the top two were Madden NFL titles, but that wasn’t hard to predict (although there were some surprises here too, more on that later). And I was right too about it being another slow month, as sales dropped compared to July.

As mentioned above, the Xbox 360 was the most popular console for August, that’s two months in a row, and only the Wii or the DS has ever managed to do this. The new 4GB didn’t help the Xbox 360 record growth compared to July, but it did help to secure first spot. One should not underestimate the importance of these last two month’s victories for the Xbox 360, and of course the new form factor for the Xbox 360, which has finally allowed it to become as “sexy” an item as the PS3, possibly more so depending on who you ask. Plus the increased stability finally allowed Microsoft to put the whole RRoD business behind them. And all in time for Kinect too!

Last month, I mentioned that this month would be important for the PS3. For the first time, we can have a year on year comparison that compared the PS3 Slim to the PS3 Slim (and to the post price-cut PS3 sales figures). Of course, the Slim and price cut was launched in the middle for August last year, so we will have an even better comparison next month. But looking at the PS3 figures, while it still managed a year-on-year growth, but it was only 8%, compare and contrast to the 76% last month. And this could very well mean that PS3 sales would actually drop, year-on-year, next month, although that depends on whether the PS Move shifts any consoles along with it or not (bundles and otherwise). But a drop is not necessarily a bad result, it just means that it’s unfair to compare the post Slim/price cut bump to what is now a normal level of sale for the console. Just like it would be silly to compared  Xbox 360 sales 0f July 2011 with July 2010, due to the post Xbox 360 “Slim” sales bump. And the PS3 was the only console to manage a month to month growth in August, I guess largely thanks to the stock issue finally clearing up completely, so thing are still looking good for the console (and even better overseas, but that’s beyond the scope of this analysis). The less said about the PSP the better.

For Nintendo though, the news remains bad. The Wii is very close to dropping to the third most popular home console (that’s last place, btw), and DS sale has started to drop, perhaps reaching market saturation (although the 3DS will help, a lot, and its only competitor is the PSP, which is doing quite awfully). But with both Microsoft and Sony bringing out their motion gaming devices, it’s not looking good for Nintendo. The low tech nature of the console, which made it an affordable, profit making piece of hardware, and was largely fine for casual games, may finally have caught up with the console – so expect the Wii 2 sooner than later, as the Wii just doesn’t have the longevity of the other two home consoles. And regardless of which camp you’re in, whether you think Kinect will win, or the Move will, what is clear is that both seem better pieces of tech than the Wii. Whether their games will be as good as the best Wii games, remains to be seen, but you can’t argue that both are innovative enough (Kinect with the controller-less interface, Move with its super accuracy) to cause Nintendo concerns, at the very least.

Onto software now. As expected the Xbox 360 and PS3 version of Madden NFL 11 were the top selling titles, in the described order. What some commentators concentrated on was the surprising lack of a gap between the sales figures of the two versions, despite the advantage in hardware units the Xbox 360 enjoys (1.6:1). The actual software advantage was only 1.235:1. But this is actually up on last year’s 1.231:1 ratio. Another multi-platform release was Mafia II, and again the Xbox 360 version outsold the PS3 version, but by how much, we don’t really know because NPD no longer provides sales stats for anything other than the top 5 titles (Mafia II for the PS3 was 7th). Super Mario Galaxy 2 for the Wii was third, and fifth place was occupied by another Super Mario game, New Super Mario Bros. for the DS. The Wii version of New Super Mario Bros. was also in the top 10, with Wii Fit Plus making a return too. For the Xbox 360, Modern Warfare 2 stayed in the top 10 (related to the upcoming Black Ops game, perhaps), and last month’s top title, NCAA Football 11 also remained in the top 10.

Here’s the complete list of the top 10 software sales:

1. Madden NFL 11 (Xbox 360, EA) – 368,000
2. Madden NFL 11 (PS3, EA) – 298,000
3. Super Mario Galaxy 2 (Wii, Nintendo) – 193,000
4. Mafia II (Xbox 360, Take 2) – 121,600
5. New Super Mario Bros. DS (DS, Nintendo) – 141,700
6. New Super Mario Bros. Wii (Wii, Nintendo)
7. Mafia II (PS3, Take 2)
8. Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 2 (Xbox 360, Activision)
9. NCAA Football 11 (Xbox 360, EA)
10. Wii Fit Plus w/Balance Board (Wii, Nintendo)

Prediction time. September = Halo Reach. That’s what next month will be all about. The fact is that, as I type, the top four items in Amazon’s Video Games section are all Halo Reach related (standard, limited, legendary editions, plus the 360 Halo Reach console bundle), just shows how dominant it will be in September’s figures. So expect the Xbox 360 to remain on the top of the console pile hardware wise too, and possibly the best month since, well, the last Halo release. Halo Reach will overshadow Sony’s launch of the Move unfortunately, although it’s doing well to just hang in around 10th, or just outside of it. The Sports Champions bundle should be counted in the software charts (in the same way Wii Fit Plus is in there), so it should be in the top 10 (especially when the top 3 will be condensed into a single entry for Halo Reach). It will be a very interesting month, I feel.

See you next month.

July figures are now available from NPD for US video game sales, and there are a couple of surprises, although probably only one good surprise for one company in particular. June figures showed some year on year improvement by the likes of the Wii, Xbox 360 and PS3, which offset the bad news about the decline for the DS and the worrying figures for the PSP. July is traditionally not as good a month as June, so all eyes will on which consoles can do the business this month, and which are in serious trouble. The figures are from NPD, a marketing research firm that releases games console sale data every month.

The figures for US sales in July 2010 are below, ranked in order of number of sales (July 2009 figures also shown, including percentage change):

• Xbox 360: 443,500 (Total: 21 million; July 2009: 202,900 – up 119%)
• DS: 398,400 (Total: 43 million; July 2009: 538,900 – down 26%)
• Wii: 253,900  (Total: 29.8 million; July 2009: 252,900 – up 0.4%)
• PS3: 214,500 (Total: 12.9 million; July 2009: 121,800 – up 76%)
• PSP: 84,000 (Total: 17.4 million; July 2009: 122,800 – down 32%)

NPD July 2010 Game Console US Sales Figures

NPD Game Console Total US Sales Figures (as of July 2010)

My prediction from last month was:

Time to make a prediction. The new Xbox 360 Elite fever continues, and there’s a good chance it will outsell the Wii (and PS3) yet again. So my guess is that the order of the hardware sales will remain the same for July, but with hardware sales generally down a bit compared to June as historically has been the case. As for games, Super Mario Galaxy 2 to rule in the absence of any real quality new releases. NCAA Football 11 should make the top 10, the Xbox 360 version outselling the PS3 version. How can I forget Crackdown 2, the sequel to the very first Xbox 360 game I ever owned. It should do well, but topping the chart? I don’t know about that (it’s already 39th in the sales charts on Amazon, and that doesn’t look like a rank that belongs to a number one title).

I was I was close to the mark, but I just couldn’t see the Xbox 360 outselling the DS, not just the Wii, but that’s exactly what happened. Although the Xbox 360’s number one was earned with much help from decreasing DS sales, but when most consoles saw month to month drop in sales, the results were still remarkable. As for games, I think what I predicted mostly came true, but otherwise it was a slow month for game sales.

The Xbox 360, thanks to the new “Slim” or we’ll just refer to it as the Xbox 360 250GB, has done wonders for Xbox 360 sales, but that’s really not a surprise. The DSi, PS3 Slim all helped to post what proved fairly temporary sales increases, and the 250GB model may run out of steam next month. But of course, Microsoft has the new Arcade replacing 4GB, matte “Slim” version out in August, and so that might help keep hardware sales up. And then in September, Halo Reach is released, and a Halo title will always help push hardware sales, so it looks good for Microsoft until Kinect hits the market. Whether Kinect will prove a hit or not, that’s still too early to say, but early signs are encouraging.

For Nintendo though, decline in DS sales and an almost negligible year on year growth for the Wii is starting to look a bit worrying. Of course, with the 3DS on the horizon, Nintendo won’t be too concerned with the year on year comparison (which saw a 26% drop in sales), last year’s figure boosted by the DSi. The Wii numbers are slightly more worrying, since the numbers are starting to look like one for a console that’s running out of ideas. Price cuts can help, but with Sony and Microsoft’s own motion gaming systems on the way, the Wii looks quite last-gen in the face of the competition.

For Sony’s systems, the PS3 is still getting a healthy year on year result every month, but remember that the PS3 was doing extremely poorly this time last year (although next month’s figures for 2009 should start to reflect the Slim and price cut’s effects, at least partially), and large growth means nothing if you’re comparing it to a poor period. But compared to the Xbox 360 or the Wii, it still isn’t doing what it is capable of, and despite the poor Wii numbers this month, the PS3 numbers were still lower. And this is with the stock issues cleared up. The PS3 numbers for July 2010 are actually lower than the PS3 numbers for July 2008 (225,000), and that’s not a great sign despite price drops, new form factor, and many many more games being released since that time. The PSP, well, the less said about that the better. Pretty soon, the NPD will have to remove the PSP numbers just like they did with the PS2 numbers, because frankly, it’s just not competitive with the DS, even with the poorer than usual DS sales numbers.

Let’s move onto software. As expected, the two versions of NCAA Football 11 for the Xbox 360 and PS3 topped the sales charts, but the gap between the two console versions has narrowed considerable compared to last year. NCAA Football 11 sold slightly less than NCAA Football 10 on the Xbox 360, but the same comparison saw more PS3 sales. While the Xbox 360 holds a 1.6:1 sales ratio to the PS3, in terms of hardware, the software margin seems to be much closer. The Xbox 360 exclusive Crackdown 2 managed to get third place, while Super Mario Galaxy 2 is still the best selling Wii title for the month (New Super Mario Bros. was the only other Wii title in the top 10, at 9th). The DS version of Lego Harry Potter Year 1 – 4 managed to grab 5th place. For the Xbox 360, there were two more titles in the top 10, Red Dead Redemption (the PS3 version has dropped out of the top 10 for this title), and an oldie, but goodie, Call of Duty: MW2. Dragon Quest IX: Sentinels of the Starry Skies for the DS was the remaining title in the top 10, at 8th.

Here’s the complete list of the top 10 software sales:

1. NCAA Football 11 (Xbox 360, EA) – 368,000
2. NCAA Football 11 (PS3, EA) – 298,000
3. Crackdown 2 (Xbox 360, Microsoft) – 208,800
4. Super Mario Galaxy 2 (Wii, Nintendo) – 193,000
5. LEGO Harry Potter: Years 1-4 (DS, Warner Bros.) – 141,700
6. Red Dead Redemption (Xbox 360, Take-Two)
7. LEGO Harry Potter: Years 1-4 (Wii, Warner Bros.)
8. Dragon Quest IX: Sentinels of the Starry Skies (DS, Nintendo)
9. New Super Mario Bros. Wii (Wii, Nintendo)
10. Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 2 (Xbox 360, Activision)

It’s time to make the usual predictions. Looking at the Amazon charts, the new Xbox 360 4GB isn’t actually doing fantastically, and it’s being outsold by the 250GB. So while most people are predicting that it would be another month where the Xbox 360 rules, I’m not as certain. I think sales will do well, but it might be the case of things being very close, with the new 4GB probably just allowing the Xbox 360 to sneak to top spot. In games, NCAA Football is usually followed by Madden NFL, the 11th version, and that will always do well. But otherwise, it’s another slow month before the busy holiday period begins, so the top 10 should look pretty familiar.

See you next month.

Well that was a short break. Thanks to the May figures being released late, and the June figures being released on time, we have a new NPD video game analysis for you only two weeks from the last one. May wasn’t anything to write home about in terms of sales, despite Red Dead Redemption and Super Mario Galaxy 2. June had some interesting developments, namely the mid month release of the new Xbox 360 Elite, you know the new slim version (even though Microsoft don’t ever use the term “slim”). The PS3 stock shortage issue seems to have cleared up, and Sony even managed to create a 250GB bundle early in June. So with all these happenings in mind, the hardware sales race heated up in June and it will be interesting to see if the stock shortage issue, which has been holding back PS3 sales, will finally allow the console, the “original” Slim if you will, to beat the “new” Xbox 360 slim. The figures are from NPD, a marketing research firm that releases games console sale data every month.

The figures for US sales in June 2010 are below, ranked in order of number of sales (June 2009 figures also shown, including percentage change):

• DS: 510,700 (Total: 42.6 million; June 2009: 766,500 – down 33%)
• Xbox 360: 451,700 (Total: 20.6 million; June 2009: 240,600 – up 88%)
• Wii: 422,500 (Total: 29.6 million; June 2009: 361,700 – up 17%)
• PS3: 304,800 (Total: 12.7 million; June 2009: 164,700 – up 85%)
• PSP: 121,000 (Total: 17.4 million; June 2009: 163,500 – down 26%)

NPD June 2010 Game Console US Sales Figures

NPD Game Console Total US Sales Figures (as of June 2010)

My prediction from last month was:

It’s time to make my usual predictions. With the PS3 stock shortage crisis over, PS3 sales should rise. The Xbox 360 would otherwise have been relegated to third place amongst the home consoles, but the new “slim” Elite may save the day, and maybe even sell enough to keep it above the PS3. I keep on expecting either the PS3 or Xbox 360 to outsell the Wii, but it hasn’t happened very often, and June is probably the same, although it has a greater chance than previous months. Not a huge month for new game releases though, so RDR may remain in the charts, with Super Mario Galaxy keeping up sales and possibly stealing a march on the RDR games.

So pretty spot on I would say, not hard though considering I only wrote the above two weeks ago. PS3 sales did improve, actually 97% better than in May, and very likely thanks to the end of the PS3 stock shortage crisis of 2010. Although I still don’t understand why the stock shortage had to occur in the first place. It seems to have cost the PS3 several months of beating the Xbox 360, and just as the stock issue cleared up, in comes a new Xbox 360 that again outsells it. And outsell the PS3 the new Xbox 360 did. And it even outsold the Wii, which I had semi-predicted above I suppose. Overall, it was an impressive 132% increase compared to last month, and the best non Holiday sales period for the console in some time. And even now, the new Xbox 360 SKU is still in the top 10, which is good news for Microsoft I guess. In fact, all hardware numbers were up compared to May, and historically, this has been the case in June. And software was almost exactly as I had predicted – a slow month still dominated by last month’s new releases.

Speaking more on the PS3, it seems the stock shortage was responsible for low sales, as once it cleared up, sales are way up. But I think a lot of the momentum from the release of the PS3 Slim has been lost in the last few month, and I don’t know who is to blame for it. It could be be because Sony underestimated the demand for the Slim (and the demand after the price cut) back in 2009, and sold all their future inventory during that time, and they’ve only been able to get supply to meet demand some 6 months into 2010. That’s the most believable scenario, but it still seems strange. Anyway, with stock no longer an issue. the PS3 is “expected” to outsell the Xbox 360 and maybe even the Wii, but that won’t happen until the excitement over the new Xbox 360 “slim” Elite dies down, probably just in time for Sony to launch Move. For Sony’s other console in the NPD data, the PSP, the news is less good. While it was up against the dismal May numbers, it’s still down 26% from a year ago, not as bad as recent results, but still bad. A PSP2 with some more innovation is what Sony needs right now.

For the Xbox 360, it was a very good month. The whole release process has been very well engineered by Microsoft. From the almost surprise announcement of the new form factor itself, to the really surprising announcement that it will ship within a week of the announcement, and the well designed nature of the new console (testing shows that it’s even more durable than the PS3 Slim), and the result is that it’s the second most popular console, the first most popular home based console, of June 2010. Let’s just hope Microsoft have plenty of stock of the new console, and won’t make the same mistake as Sony with their stock issues. And with news of a new Xbox 360 Arcade “slim” on the horizon, the momentum could carry the Xbox 360 all the way until Kinect is released, and that’s probably what Microsoft are counting on. I said at the start of 2010 that the Xbox 360 had to hold on to the lead it has over the PS3 until Project Natal, as it was known back then, was ready and Microsoft has done this and some extra. Of course, the PS3 stock did help Microsoft in this regard.

The Wii had another month of year to year growth, but that’s like comparing a poor month to a really really bad one. Well, not exactly, since it’s hard to say just what constitutes a good month or bad month. Compared to the PS2 lifecycle, the Wii is still doing very well. It’s only doing badly compared to itself two years ago, but Wii sales were never going to hold steady at those levels. So Nintendo will look at the year on year growth as a positive, not to mention the still healthy software sales (see below). The DS suffered another month of year on year sales drop, but this is like comparing a good month to a really really great one. When the 3Ds is released, Nintendo have another “great” month, I expect.

For software, not a great month for new releases as I had “predicted”. So we have lots of titles from last month still in the top 10. Interestingly, the only two new entries in the top 10 were all Wii titles, and both were third-party games. This is exactly what the Wii needs, for third party publishers to get a bite of the lucrative Wii trade, instead of always relying on Nintendo to come up with the goods. In fact, there are three non Nintendo produced Wii titles in the top 10 this month, although the best selling one was still a Nintendo production – Super Mario Galaxy 2. The continued success of Just Dance for the Wii actually bodes well for Microsoft I think, because Kinect will be able to do these types of games without breaking a sweat (unlike the people that are actually playing the game in question). Red Dead Redemption for the Xbox 360 held on to top spot this month, as did both of the UFC 2010 games. 6 of the top 10 were Wii titles, with two for Xbox 360 and two for the PS3. As usual, only sales figures for the top 5 are provided, and figures for the two new Wii titles are provided by Nintendo separately (hopefully Microsoft and Sony will catch on and also start releasing figures for the ones that don’t have it in the top 10).

Here’s the complete list of the top 10 software sales:

1. Red Dead Redemption (Xbox 360, Take-Two) – 582,900
2. Super Mario Galaxy 2 (Wii, Nintendo) – 548,400
3. Red Dead Redemption (PS3, Take-Two) – 380,300
4. New Super Mario Bros. Wii (Wii, Nintendo) – 200,900
5. Just Dance (Wii, Ubisoft) – 174,800
6. Wii Fit Plus w/Balance Board (Wii, Nintendo)
7. Toy Story 3 (Wii, Disney) – 164,000
8. UFC 2010: Undisputed (Xbox 360, THQ)
9. LEGO Harry Potter: Years 1-4 (Wii, Warner Bros.) – 136,000
10. UFC 2010: Undisputed (PS3, THQ)

Time to make a prediction. The new Xbox 360 Elite fever continues, and there’s a good chance it will outsell the Wii (and PS3) yet again. So my guess is that the order of the hardware sales will remain the same for July, but with hardware sales generally down a bit compared to June as historically has been the case. As for games, Super Mario Galaxy 2 to rule in the absence of any real quality new releases. NCAA Football 11 should make the top 10, the Xbox 360 version outselling the PS3 version. How can I forget Crackdown 2, the sequel to the very first Xbox 360 game I ever owned. It should do well, but topping the chart? I don’t know about that (it’s already 39th in the sales charts on Amazon, and that doesn’t look like a rank that belongs to a number one title).

See you next month.