Archive for the ‘Nintendo Wii, Wii U, Switch’ Category

Game Consoles – March 2010 NPD Sales Figure Analysis

Monday, April 19th, 2010

March is a huge month for gaming software, particularly for the PS3, with the release of the much anticipated God of War III, plus the first truly current-gen Final Fantasy game (always a big draw for the PS3, although this time, it’s no longer a platform exclusive). The PS3 has never dominated software sales, particularly the top 10, so March is an excellent opportunity for Sony to achieve this. The Xbox 360 was also the best selling home based console in February, but both Nintendo and Sony blamed stock shortages for the low hardware numbers, and it will be interesting to see if the Xbox 360 continues to hold top spot this month. The figures are from NPD, a marketing research firm that releases games console sale data every month.

The figures for US sales in March 2010 are below, ranked in order of number of sales (March 2009 figures also shown, including percentage change):

  • DS: 700,800 (Total: 41.2 million; February 2009: 563,000 – up 24%)
  • Wii: 557,500 (Total: 28.6 million; February 2009: 601,000 – down 7%)
  • Xbox 360: 338,400 (Total: 19.7 million; February 2009: 331,000 – up 2%)
  • PS3: 313,900 (Total: 12.1 million; February 2009: 218,000 – up 44%)
  • PSP: 119,900 (Total: 17.2 million; February 2009: 168,000 – down 29%)
  • PS2: 118,300 (Total: 45.5 million; February 2009: 112,000 – up 6%)
NPD March 2010 Game Console US Sales Figures

NPD March 2010 Game Console US Sales Figures

NPD Game Console Total US Sales Figures (as of March 2010)

NPD Game Console Total US Sales Figures (as of March 2010)

My prediction from last month was:

I find it hard to make one for hardware sales because of the stock shortage issue, but if I had to go out on a limb, then I say the PS3 is second, behind the DS, and above the Wii and Xbox 360. I think the Xbox 360 will come fourth, with the Wii recovering a bit. The reason I say the PS3 is going to top the other home consoles is because of two things. One is called Final Fantasy XIII, the other is called God of War III. Having two huge releases in the same month should help hardware sales, but I wonder if it isn’t better to separate these two titles, which might get into each other’s way in terms of vying for gamers’ pocket money. But what do I know. In any case, there aren’t too many new releases for either the Xbox 360 or the Wii, so Sony could really clean up in March.

So the PS3 didn’t come second, but the Wii did outsell the Xbox 360, and the two PS3 titles I mentioned did do rather well in the top 10 charts. Sony says the PS3 hardware numbers are still low due to stock shortage issues, which is a shame because they knew these two top titles were coming out and yet didn’t prepare enough hardware stock to meet demands. The Xbox 360 still managed to outsell the PS3, but it’s hard to know how much of it is due to stock shortages. And Sony did clean up in terms of software, if not in hardware.

The more cynical might say that the PS3 stock shortage will end as soon as it manages to beat the Xbox 360. But looking at the current Amazon charts, the previously sold out PS3 120GB is currently the top seller, so it might very well beat the Xbox 360, and maybe even the Wii. Certainly off the backs of two monster software releases, you’d expect the console to do well. March was a good month for Sony, more evident when we get to the software numbers, with even the PS2 recording a year-on-year sales growth. Unfortunately, PSP sales continues to slide.

For Nintendo, the Wii continues to sell poorly based on a year-on-year comparison, but there was only a 7% drop in sales, much better than the usual 40+%. The “less bad” results may also be indicative of a slight bump due to stock shortage issues being addressed. The DS continues to steamroller past all other consoles, and it had a huge title in the software charts as well, so the Nintendo eco-system is still doing well.

For Microsoft, the Xbox 360 recorded yet another monthly figure that was higher than a year ago, albeit a somewhat diminutive 2%. The console has a few exclusives to be released in the next few months, but nothing like the titles on the PS3, and so it could very well be just a matter of limping on until Project Natal is released just before the holidays. The rumour that Project Natal will be available as a bundle with the same price point as the current Elite console could very well make it a holiday time winner, especially when up against the comparatively expensive PlayStation Move (which in order to get the best experience,  requires a PS3 Eye, plus 2 Move controllers and the required nunchuck, now called the Navigation Controller). For now, if Microsoft can keep up with the year-on-year growth, then I think they will be relatively happy, even if relegated to being the least popular of the home consoles.

Moving on to software. Sony stole the show with 40% of the top 10 in terms of units sold, and having 4 titles in the top 10, both of which are records. If not for the Pokemon DS titles, the PS3 games would have dominated even more. The PS3 exclusive God of War III is finally selling like an exclusive, winning the month as the most popular title. Previous exclusives, even as recently as Heavy Rain in last month, did relatively poorly considering the number of consoles out there. Speaking of Heavy Rain, it disappeared from the top 10 altogether, which again suggests that had Sony released it earlier in February, as opposed to the very very end, then it might have had a chance to place much higher in the charts. The second big PS3 title was Final Fantasy XIII, which despite no longer being a platform exclusive, still managed to outsell the Xbox 360 version by almost two to one. With Final Fantasy being very much a PlayStation franchise, and with the PS3’s Blu-ray disc offering better quality pre-recorded visuals than the Xbox 360 version, it all goes on to explain why the Xbox 360 version didn’t sell better. The Xbox 360 did win one multi-platform war, in that Battlefield: Bad Company 2 on the Xbox 360 managed to outsell the PS3 version by almost two to one as well. There was room for one more PS3 exclusive, MLB 10:  The Show, which occupied the last spot. For the Wii, there were only two listings in the top 10, New Super Mario Bros. and Wii Fit making a return. Overall, the PS3 had 40.63% of the top 10, the Xbox 360 with 19.64% and the Wii in last place with 13.21%, the Pokemon DS titles claimed the rest.

Here’s the complete list of the top 10 software sales:

  1. God of War III (PS3, Sony) – 1,100,000
  2. Pokemon SoulSilver (DS, Nintendo) – 1,020,000
  3. Final Fantasy XIII (PS3, Square Enix) – 828,200
  4. Battlefield: Bad Company 2 (Xbox 360, EA) – 825,500
  5. Pokemon HeartGold (DS, Nintendo) – 761,200
  6. Final Fantasy XIII (Xbox 360, Square Enix) – 493,900
  7. New Super Mario Bros. Wii (Wii, Nintendo) – 457,400
  8. Battlefield: Bad Company 2 (PS3, EA) – 451,200
  9. Wii Fit Plus w/Balance Board (Wii, Nintendo) – 224,700
  10. MLB 10: The Show (PS3, Sony) – 349,200

So prediction time. I think the PS3 will outsell the Wii, in April. This is based on the strong software numbers for March, plus the stock shortage issue being resolved finally which will give the PS3 a bump in sales. While there’s no new major PS3 exclusive in April, Super Street Fighter IV will be available, and based on the non Super version of the fighting game, the PS3 version should outsell the Xbox 360 version as well. Tom Clancy’s Splinter Cell Conviction, which is a console only exclusive for the Xbox 360 (there’s also a PC version), should do well, and God of War III should still be charting. So another good month for the PS3, with better hardware numbers, but probably slightly lesser software domination, for April.

See you next month.

Weekly News Roundup (21 March 2010)

Sunday, March 21st, 2010

Some big software news this week. First up, DivX Plus 8 was released, all the tools in the package got updated, including the DivX Player, Converter. As usual, there’s a free codec pack for those only wanting to play DivX (and now MKV/H.264) movies. Then there was a new version of ImgBurn, with a suitably impressive, and long, list of changes. And finally, PowerDVD 10 was released, with some exciting new features – a brief overview in this blog post to tide you over before the full review is up, but if you like 3D stuff, this one’s for you.

But wait, there’s more. I managed to sneak in a new PS3 related guide over the week as well. This one uses AVIAddXSubs and lets you add subtitles to AVI files that will show up on the PS3. And not only that, you can add up to 8 subtitles per AVI file, and they can be switchable (obviously), and even turned off. All without having to re-encode the AVI file, and all taking only a minute or two per subtitle stream.

And let’s not forget, we still have news to go through.

Copyright

In Copyright news, in a surprising turn of events, content owners no longer wants to call people who download their content illegally “pirates”. Not because they’ve had a change of heart and realised that there’s isn’t a huge connection between a penniless college student downloading a copy of  District 9, and the often violent, on the seas theft of commercial shipping.

Jack Sparrow

Jack Sparrow: ruining a perfectly good word for music and movie studios

It’s all because, apparently, “piracy” is just too sexy a word to describe the horrific act of downloading bits of data from the Internet. It’s all Johnny Depp’s fault, I suppose, for making piracy look like good fun. Maybe the studios should sue Disney and Mr. Depp. Others have already speculated on what other words can be used to describe the inhumane act of downloading a copy of a file that can be copied an infinite number of times. Something that truly describes the full horror and the the immoral act of what we used to call piracy. File murdering? Song raping? Movie genocide?

These kind of hard decisions have to made somewhere, and soon, the rights holder may have a new global body to standardise these sort of things, if they get their way with the ACTA. Recent leaks suggested that a new body will be set up to oversee the global anti-piracy ACTA treaty, and that this body will be free to make changes to the treaty without governmental interference. In fact, the government won’t even be involved, unless by special invitations. US trade reps, allegedly, calls this body a necessary step to keep out consumer interest groups from ongoing copyright discussions. It’s becoming increasingly clear that these so called anti-piracy laws are nothing other than a desperate attempt to preserve the outdated business model of certain copyright holders, and through a scare campaign and big money lobbying, the various governments are nothing but props in this stage play. And now they want their own “OPEC”, so they can force their demands on the rest of the world and keep profits flowing.

The people, consumers, music lovers, movie fans, are increasingly being marginalized, even though they’re the ones paying the salaries of the government agencies so keen to hand over people’s rights to corporations, and they’re also the ones paying for the big bonuses that the music and movie studio bosses are no doubt getting. Speaking of disenfranchised, 10,000 UK voters have protested to their Members of Parliament about the controversial Digital Economy Bill, which is being rushed through parliament without debate at the insistence of the music and movie industry. So an unpopular bill may get passed without public consultation or even a debate (which would mostly have been an one way one anyway), while the corporations cheer the outcome that they’ve engineered. Is this still a democracy?

Command & Conquer 4 - Back

I couldn't find a higher resolution version of the back of the box, so one of the sections of the extremely small text says "Persistent internet connection required"

Gaming DRM is back in the spotlights this week, when EA announced that their new game, Command & Conquer 4, will use a similar DRM system to Ubisoft’s, which means an “always on” Internet connection requirement. Lose your Internet, or if the EA servers go down, then the game will kick you out. To be honest, none of this is really new, as many companies have tried “always on” DRM, and all have failed. Internet connectivity may have improved, but there are still many, me included, that don’t have access to a 100% stable Internet connections, certainly not stable enough to guarantee that a 2 hour gaming session won’t be interrupted. Futuremark’s Jaakko Haapasalo said it well last week – there are just so many games these days, and even on the PC, it’s still a relatively competitive industry. So if people don’t think they can play C&C 4 properly, then they’ll skip it for something else, or wait until it’s been “bargain binned” before buying. Why the game companies, who are already competing with *free* pirated games, want to add another thing that makes their product less attractive, I just don’t know.

High Definition

In HD/Blu-ray news, I previously mentioned LG’s Blu-ray player, which is one of the few that doesn’t have 3D in it, and instead, adds an HDD. The new player is now available to buy, and what was interesting was to see that it includes CD ripping.

Not that CD ripping on a standalone device is new, many can do it, but having it on a Blu-ray/DVD player just reminds you how useful it would be if the player could also rip DVDs and Blu-rays. I know there are piracy movie genocide issues to consider, but the convenience would be much appreciated. But the movie studios don’t trust their paying customers, so we’ll just have to be happy that they even let us watch the movie at all, after paying for it.

I recently talked about how you may not want to buy the soon to be released Lord of the Rings on Blu-ray (the comments/ratings protest on Amazon is still going strong, I see – I don’t know if sales will be affected, but it’s only 65th on the best seller list right now), now there’s also reason why you may want to wait on Avatar as well. Despite the director’s wishes, Avatar on Blu-ray released in April won’t be the 3D version, and you’ll have to wait for the (first of many, no doubt) “Ultimate” version coming in November, in time for the holiday season. That one will have 3D and more extra features, and maybe even a longer cut, no doubt. This is actually a bit more understandable than the decision to not release the extended version of the LOTR movies, since I doubt many people would have the equipment to play the movie in 3D right now, or even in November. And it’s not as if the extended cut of the film has been released for years beforehand already, so a double dip here is understandable. But I recommend you do an “one and a half dip”, rent the Blu-ray if you really want to watch the movie right now, and then buy the Ultimate Extended Special Collector’s 3D Extreme edition to be released later in the year.

Redbox about to become Blu, when Blu-ray movies are added to the collection

And you may just be able to rent Avatar on Blu-ray on a Redbox vending machine, since Blu-ray is now being added to fill the empty spaces in these machines. Unfortunately, the studios are still keen on trying to kill, or at least curb, Redbox, which they accuse of committing Content Manslaughter (act where studios profits are affected – at least it’s not murder). Studios insist on a 28 day window between releases making their way to Redbox vending machines, which the studios think will help their profits, but DVDGuy thinks will actually just encourage movie genocide. Feels to me like another self inflicted wound on behalf of the studios, since they can easily work together with Redbox and profit together.

There’s some musing from Microsoft about Blu-ray and the Xbox 360, but I’ll save that for the often neglected gaming section. But Microsoft did make another headline during the week when they revealed that IE9 will feature HTML5 support, which isn’t a surprise, but will also support the H.264 codec. Which isn’t that surprising either, since Microsoft owns several patents on H.264 and so they would like to see it succeed. Plus, they can easily afford to pay for the H.264 licensing costs just by digging for spare change in Steve Ballmer’s sofa. Mozilla’s Firefox won’t support H.264 though, since it’s against their open source principles, plus it also costs money. So that’s Chrome, IE and Safari in the H.264 camp, Firefox, Opera and Chrome (again) in the Ogg Theora camp.

Gaming

And finally in gaming, with the PlayStation Move still making headlines, Sony are keen to keep the hype going and have released a TV ad that, well is either very funny, or very arrogant. Or both.

Spot the Difference

Spot the Difference

It portrays one of their VPs communicating all the way from the future, in November of this year (when the Move is released), and mocks the Wii’s for its limited playing style, and the button-less design of Natal. Of course, the “inferior” Wii is kicking the PS3’s butt on so many levels, why Sony wanted to make the comparison, I don’t know. Also, if Sony’s idea of “the future” is November, then maybe they’re even more shortsighted than I thought. This from the same company that dismissed the Wii before they wanted to be just like one. At least Microsoft is trying to be different with Natal, although sometimes different is just another word for “not very good”.

But Sega doesn’t seem to think so. They think the Natal really has potential and that we’ll see “brilliant innovations” in the next year or two. Sega plans to make games for both the Move and Natal, but it’s quite clear that they are a bit more excited at taking advantage of Natal, but only if they can solve the lag issue.

And Microsoft says that Blu-ray has ruined the PS3, at least until now that is. While I would like to say that this was Microsoft’s attempt at hitting back at Sony for the Natal mockery, but the truth is that Microsoft made this statement earlier than the ad itself. A lot of people will disagree with this statement, because many see Blu-ray as the one saving grace of the PS3 while its prices were sky high, and now that prices have come down, Blu-ray could be decisive. While I agree with this wholeheartedly, the fact is that the PS3 would be doing a lot better right now if it was cheaper, but it couldn’t be cheaper because of Blu-ray support, and so, Microsoft is partially correct as well. The PlayStation brand has gone from 80% market domination in the last round, to only 20% of the home console market in the current generation (in the US), and while it still has time to catch up, you can’t say that the PS3 has been as successful as the PS2, and that’s given the Wii and the Xbox 360 some room to breathe. I’m sure Sony doesn’t regret the decision, because it won them the HD format war, and that will bring its own rewards – they just had to sacrifice the PlayStation brand to do it, and they will hope it’s only a temporary setback.

And on that note, I shall end this week’s WNR. Expect much much less stuff next week, in relation to new software releases, guides or even news, although I shall faithfully attempt to get the PowerDVD review online as soon as possible. And by faithfully attempt, I mean whenever I feel like it. See you next week.

Weekly News Roundup (14 March 2010)

Sunday, March 14th, 2010

The February NPD analysis has been posted. The analysis looks at video games sales stats in the US based on figures released by the NPD. The big surprise for February was that the Xbox 360 actually managed to beat both the Wii and the PS3, something that I don’t remember happening before. Both Nintendo and Sony blamed stock shortages though. I keep on expecting Xbox 360 sales to disappoint, but good game releases seems to come along just at the right time for the console to give it a much needed bump. For all the talk of the PS3’s strong year on year growth, it’s worth noting (again) that it’s a bit like comparing apples to oranges, due to the price cut and Slim and everything. Or more precisely, it’s like comparing apples with rotten oranges, thanks to the PS3’s dismal sales figures for most of 2008 and 2009. To further illustrate this point, for the month of February, the Xbox 360 enjoyed a massive 66% increase in sales between 2008 and 2010, to the PS3’s 28% bump (and the Wii’s 6% drop). Basically, the PS3 is now enjoying figures that it should have been enjoying this time last year. With some hit games coming to the PS3 in March, Sony will hope this will be yet another important milestone for the console, much like the price cut/Slim back in September last year.

Anyway, there’s a few news items to go through today and it also happens to be my birthday as well, so yeah!

Copyright

Let’s get started with some copyright news. The Ubisoft DRM controversy keeps on going this week with a couple of related news stories as well. With Assassin’s Creed II released, the Ubisoft DRM servers came under some serious test, and unfortunately it failed.

Ubisoft blamed a DDoS attack for the server downtime, which caused paying gamers to not be able to play the games that they paid for, while those pirating it weren’t affected. Ubisoft still says that the only complete version of the games are the legitimate ones, since some files or content can only be accessed through Ubisoft’s servers. I think it’s safe to say that the games hasn’t been completely cracked, but it might also be safe to say that it will be sooner or later. But that’s all beside the point. The point is paying customers weren’t able to play the games because of a situation that Ubisoft hadn’t anticipated (the server attack), and there will be plenty of situations that Ubisoft hasn’t and won’t be able to anticipate. Is this really fair to gamers? Following the Ubisoft controversy, a lot of other game companies have come out with their opinions on the matter. Futuremark, the makers of 3D Mark and the upcoming game Shattered Horizon, says DRM that “gets in the way” is only going to harm the game companies because “it’s not like there is a shortage of other games demanding my attention”. How many gamers have decided to buy some other game because they don’t want the hassle associated with playing Silent Hunter 5 or Assassin’s Creed II (and for the latter, they can still get the console version if they really want to play it).

Steam logo

Steam's popularity shows that there are still some kinds of DRM people might accept

Valve’s Gabe Newell, the guy behind the Half-Life series, and also the successful Steam platform (which has just been made available for the Mac, finally) also says something similar. While accepting an award at the Game Developer’s Choice Awards, Newell believes game companies should adopt a ”what have I done for my customers today?’ attitude. Basically, Newell thinks DRM is a negative that takes something away from games, and if you do that, then you better also give them something extra to make up for it, which is what the Steam platform attempts to do. But if one goes overboard with DRM, as Ubisoft appears to have done, then it’s going to take a lot of positives (more than just online save games) to be able to justify something like this. The Steam platform does have DRM as well, but it seems to offer enough for paying customers to accept the limitations. The often discounted games might also help gamers ignore the inconvenience of needing the Steam client and having to be online before playing a game.

There’s a real battle in the UK over the future of the Internet, with the music industry being represented by the BPI who wants three-strikes, ISP monitoring and all that good stuff. The ISPs, and pretty much everyone else, don’t want it. In a new tactic, the BPI is trying to entice ISPs to get on board by luring them with the possibility of huge amounts of extra revenue from working with the music industry and selling legal music. I don’t see any problem with this, except why do we need three-strikes to make this a possibility, since this is something the music industry should have been working on ages on (and perhaps if they did, piracy wouldn’t be such a big problem now). ISPs are not impressed and one spokesman questioned the ‘value of such insight from an industry which has failed to acknowledge the impact of new technology on its own business models’. Touché. The music industry has been slow to adapt to the new digital and Internet revolution, there’s no greater evidence than the fact that the most popular online music store is being owned and operated by a computer company, Apple, and not one of the big music labels. But a new study also shows that even with the dominance of iTunes, there’s still a significant number of people that don’t know where to buy music online legally. While most know of Amazon or iTunes, 20% didn’t know any online stores. This isn’t to say that the cause for piracy is due to people now knowing where to buy music, because people who pirate will always pirate, and people who buy will find a way to do it. But it does highlight that the music industry has plenty left to do before it can declare that they’ve done all they could and that it’s time for the government in intervene with harsh legislation. The music industry was quick to try and discredit the new study, by saying their own study shows that 96% of Internet users were aware of either Amazon or iTunes.

Hadopi Logo

Hadopi, the French agency overseeing three-strikes, only regulates P2P networks for three-strikes

But does three-strike actually work to one, deter pirates, and two, increase revenue? The French have had three-strikes for a while now, and the results are not promising. Piracy is actually up three percent compared to before three-strikes was introduced. While noting that the habits of downloaders have changed, less people now use P2P and more use HTTP or streaming sources to get their pirated content (these sources are not covered by three-strikes), the overall number of cases of piracy has actually increased. It’s also worth noting that secure P2P means that it’s hard to track just exactly what is being downloaded and by whom, and so the figures could be higher depending on how the study was conducted. In any case, it definitely shows that three-strikes is not the cure all solution that the music and movie industries thinks it is. The same study also found that 50% of people who pirate stuff also buys stuff online, and of course if all of these people are kicked off the Internet by three-strikes, then that’s going to mean a direct revenue drop for the music/movie industry, not to mention other online based industries. The reality is that many users see purchasing and illegal downloads as two possible ways to get what they  want, and it’s up to the music/movie industry to convince them that one way is better than the other. Instead, they’re trying to punish these users for choosing the wrong option, and all that does is to close off both possible ways to get content. Pricing and convenience will win this war, not bannings.

And then there’s also the theory that even illegal downloads help sales eventually. The number of people who have been introduced to new music, new artists, new TV shows, new games, through pirated content at first and then leading them to buy more stuff, cannot be underestimated. Pirated content offers “try before you buy” and sometimes that’s the only way to get new customers. Then there’s also the Internet hype effect, and the more people that talk about the content (and logic says that the more pirated the content is, the more users there are that have experienced it, and therefore, the more discussions there will be about it), the more hype it generates and that can help sales. Of course, bad content might get found out faster, and I sometimes wonder if that’s what really the studios and labels are worried about, that bad content are being “filtered” out too quickly and they may actually be forced to produce good content consistently in the future. For the movie studios, the last few years has been bad ones in terms of piracy, but the MPAA was happy to note this week that global box office receipts have jumped a massive 30% since 2005, and 2009’s global earning was just shy of the 30 billion dollar mark, a new record for the industry. So is piracy really hurting the industry at all? We know that increases in box office receipts may have more to do with 3D screenings that are becoming standard for big releases, and that if piracy affects anything it will be home video sales. Home video sales have dropped, although with Blu-ray revenue increasing, studios are relatively confident in this area. But I just don’t believe the Internet has had no effect on box office receipts, since it has had an effect (both positive and negative) on everything else in our lives.

High Definition

Let’s move onto Blu-ray and HD news. Manufacturers are rolling out their 3D TVs and Blu-ray players in droves, but the cost of getting 3D for your home may just be too high for some, if not all.

Panasonic 3DTV and 3D Blu-ray Player

3DTV is going to cost a lot, as you'll need a new TV, new Blu-ray player and new 3D glasses

For one, you’ll need a new TV. One thing that has been confirmed is that 3D capable TVs will carry a premium over standard ones, up to 50% more expensive for Sony Bravias for example. And then you have the need to upgrade your Blu-ray player to one that is capable of 3D, although you can skip this requirement if you have the PS3 (another reason to recommend the PS3 as the Blu-ray player of choice). But if you can’t skip it, at least 3D capable Blu-ray players should not carry a huge premium over standard ones (although you might need to buy a new HDMI cable as well). Then you will have to get glasses. Most of the systems use active shutter glasses, which means expensive glasses that cost upwards of $150 per pair. Some of the 3D TVs will come with a few sets (for 50% more, you’d expect them to come with at least 4 pairs), but if you want the whole family to enjoy a 3D nights in, then be prepared to pay for it. And then lastly, you’ll need to get 3D movies to feed your 3D system, which has now cost you several thousand dollars probably. This may mean that you’ll need to double dip and buy new versions of recent movies that have been released on Blu-ray as 2D versions only. And knowing studios, they’ll release a 2D version of the movie first on Blu-ray, and then hope for the double dip with a 3D version later on, which is exactly what Fox is planning with Avatar. And with plans to re-release classics like Star Wars on 3D again, be prepared to buy some of your movie collections again (again (again)) if you want to watch it in 3D.

Moving onto online content. The war between HTML5 and Flash is intensifying. A benchmark review was attempted recently to find performance differences between HTML5 and Flash, but it appears to have failed because compatibility meant that it was almost impossible to compare apples and apples. The problem is that the latest beta of Flash has GPU assisted decoding, but not on all platforms, and then you have HTML5, in which some browsers will support H.264 content, while others like Firefox won’t. It would be nice if a proper standard like HTML5 can supersede the need to install third party plugins like Flash, to allow all browsers to play interactive and video content out of the box, but if HTML5 doesn’t set a standard for whether H.264 support is mandatory or not, then it’s next to useless and I’d rather have Flash, which promises universal support (even if some won’t have GPU assist enabled). My opinion is that HTML5 must make H.264 mandatory. I know there are licensing issues with H.264, and more needs to be done in this area to ensure free and open source browser makers can continue to do their excellent work, but H.264 has industry support and that’s crucial in terms of performance and compatibility. It would be nice of Ogg Theora or another open source format become widely adopted, but it just hasn’t happened and it’s unlikely to do so unfortunately. Perhaps if someone like Nvidia added Theora acceleration support to their GPUs, then the situation might change.

Speaking of Nvidia, they’ve not had a good time in the graphics card market recently, with ATI/AMD dominating with the Radeon HD range in both the price and performance criteria. Then there was the whole failing GPUs in Macbook disaster a year and half ago. Now it seems Nvidia’s new driver is killing GPUs. Those that have upgraded to 196.75 need to perform a downgrade immediately, or face the possibility of having their GPU, or even mothergboards, fried due to overheating. Nvidia has since removed the offending version from download, and has urged users to downgrade as their soonest convenience.

Gaming

And finally in gaming, with Sony officially naming their Wii like motion controller, the PS3 Dildo Move has been in the news this week. Will it kill the Wii? What about Natal? And why does it look like a dildo?

The answer to all these questions might be a simple “wait and see” (except the last one, since the answer to that is it’s a combination of the need for the strobe light to interact with the PS3 Eye Toy and some unfortunate design decisions). It’s easy to see why it can kill the Wii, with the PS3 superior 3D graphics and more accurate controller bringing us what we think the Wii 2 will be like. It’s also easy to see why it will fail, since failure is exactly how you would describe the efforts of third party game developers when it comes to taking advantage of the Wii. Can Sony make fun games like Nintendo seems to be able to do in their sleep?

PS3 Move Controller

The PS3 controller now has an official name, the PS3 Move

For the Natal question, again, it’s far too early to say anything about it. For one, we don’t know what kind of games will benefit from Natal, and we still don’t even know if the whole concept works, due to issues with lag and whatnot. Obviously, the controller-less Natal seems a far bigger leap than the PS3 Move, but bigger leaps can succeed like the Wii or fail like the proverbial Virtual Boy. If it does work (that is, if the lag issue can be resolved), then it would be easier to market than the PS3 Move, which for the average Joe, seems too much like the Wii (even though it’s not). Some have suggested the lag is around 0.1 seconds on average, but others have likened it to what the original Wii remote was like when people play tested it, which I guess worked out just fine for Nintendo. I think for Natal to succeed, it needs integration with the traditional controller. Instead of making games that require you to use the Wii-mote, or the Move all the time, Natal’s camera system and the ability to map your body movements, plus facial and voice recognition should allow you to hold the good old Xbox 360 controller and then use body/limb movements, and voice controls, to enhance the normal gaming experience. Think taking penalties during football/soccer games. Throwing grenades in a FPS. Navigating the Xbox 360 interface like your garden variety Tom Cruise. Giving competitors the finger in a racing game, etc. The possibilities are endless!

But if I had to use the Wii-mote or the Move or Natal to play traditional games that already work perfectly fine with a controller, then I’m not really interested in that, since if it works, it works and there’s no need to reinvent the wheel.

That’s it from me this week. Off to enjoy what’s left of my birthday today. See you next week when I’ll be older but definitely not wiser.

Game Consoles – February 2010 NPD Sales Figure Analysis

Saturday, March 13th, 2010

This February is an important month for several reasons. Following the disappointing numbers for January, there was hope that the gaming industry would pick up again in February. February also marked the release of several new releases, including Bioshock 2 and the PS3 exclusive and critically acclaimed Heavy Rain. So will any of these games make the difference, will the industry start to have positive year to year growth, or are we still in a period of decline? Read on to find out. The figures are from NPD, a marketing research firm that releases games console sale data every month.

The figures for US sales in February 2010 are below, ranked in order of number of sales (February 2009 figures also shown, including percentage change):

  • DS: 613,200 (Total: 40.5 million; February 2009: 588,000 – up 4%)
  • Xbox 360: 422,000 (Total: 19.4 million; February 2009: 391,000 – up 8%)
  • Wii: 397,900 (Total: 28 million; February 2009: 753,000 – down 47%)
  • PS3: 360,100 (Total: 11.8 million; February 2009: 276,000 – up 30%)
  • PSP: 133,400 (Total: 17.1 million; February 2009: 199,000 – down 33%)
  • PS2: 101,900 (Total: 45.4 million; February 2009: 131,000 – down 22%)
NPD February 2010 Game Console US Sales Figures

NPD February 2010 Game Console US Sales Figures

NPD Game Console Total US Sales Figures (as of February 2010)

NPD Game Console Total US Sales Figures (as of February 2010)

My prediction from last month was:

There are some big titles being released in February, several that will help the PS3 more than the Xbox 360, including the platform exclusive Heavy Rain, and while it’s no longer exclusive, Final Fantasy XIII should have a bigger following on the PlayStation platform than on the 360. As a result, I expect the PS3 to outsell the Xbox 360 at the very least and maybe make a run on the Wii. BioShock 2 should do well on the Xbox 360, but the usual Nintendo Wii titles should also be in the top 10.

I think the only thing I got right was that Bioshock 2 on the Xbox 360 did well, and relatively good sales for Heavy Rain. I didn’t even get the Final Fantasy release date right, so it’s best to just forget my prediction and move on (please?).

There was little chance that I would have gotten this month’s hardware sales order right. The Xbox 360 outselling both the Wii and the PS3 was totally unexpected, to be honest. Both Nintendo and Sony have blamed stock shortages for the problem, and a quick browse on most online stores at least confirm the PS3 250GB being sold out for quite a while now. I can sort of understand the Wii having trouble with stock, since it had a monster December, but January was relatively weak in sales and usually stock problems pop up then and gets fixed in February. For the PS3, sales have been much better than last year and I can see why Sony would not have planned for the sales increase with production increases. But still, if Microsoft can meet demand, despite selling more consoles than the PS3 in the last two months, then you have to say for Sony (and Nintendo) that it was an opportunity missed. I might also guess that Sony might be keeping supply short deliberately so that they have enough units to ship out in March, when Final Fantasy XIII is actually released (not February, as I had thought last month, for some reason).

Looking at the year on year figures, the DS, Xbox 360 and PS3 all recorded growth, while the rest fell. The Xbox 360 has consistently had year on year growth, albeit marginal, and that’s quite a feat and Microsoft has the luck of having key game releases spread out evenly to allow this to happen (for example, Modern Warfare 2 came just at the time when it look like the Xbox 360 was running out of steam when faced with superior competition in the form of the price reduced PS3 Slim). The PS3’s growth can be largely attributed to the Slim/price cut, and also the fact that it was doing horribly last year (and the year before). As I showed last month, while the year to year growth for the PS3 was a high 30%, comparing 2010 to 2008 only yielded a 28% sales increase (because February 2009 was actually worse than February 2008 for the PS3). That’s a 28% sales increase in two years, which is not that good at all, especially considering the fact that Xbox 360 sales grew by 66% in the same time period (and as I noted last month, there was a 45% growth for the Xbox 360 comparing January 2008 and 2010 figures, with the PS3 only recording a negligible 3%). The PS3 should be doing a lot better than it still is, but maybe we’ll see that for the rest of the year, as the PS3 has some really high profile exclusives (or semi-exclusives) lined up.

Looking at the red figures, the decline in year on year for the Wii is worrying, even with Nintendo’s assertion that stock shortages were the reason. The Wii has been consistently doing worse the a year before, and has done this for most of 2009, so while February was especially worse due to stock issues, it still would have been a red month for the Wii without the stock issues. Of course, what’s happening with the Wii is almost the opposite of the PS3, whereas the PS3 had a bad 2008/2009 and so it was easy for Sony to record growth, the Wii had a great 2008/first few months of 2009 and so it’s really hard for them to avoid year on year declines. Things should stabilise for the Wii around April, I feel. The PSP and PS2’s decline slowed a bit in February, particularly the PS2, but the PSP is irrelevant now compared to the DS.

Let’s move on to software. The biggest hit of the month, as expected, was Bioshock 2. The fact that the PS3 port didn’t even rank in the top 10 is a bit of a surprise, it was 12th and sold nearly 3 times fewer copies than the Xbox 360 version. The fact that the original Bioshock was a Xbox 360 exclusive may have something to do with it, and expect a similar, but not as extreme, scenario when the formerly PS3 exclusive Final Fantasy XIII is released in March. Another reason could be because buyers had to choose between Heavy Rain and Bioshock 2, and many chose the former instead. Modern Warfare 2 is still holding up in the sales charts, again showing how amazing it has done since release. Last month’s hit, Mass Effect 2, is still doing relatively well. Another surprise is the Wii hit, Just Dance, which somehow managed to increase in sales. It seems to be getting popular and popular! Another interesting situation with Dante’s Inferno, in which the PS3 version outsold the Xbox 360 version – again, expect the PS3 version of FFXIII to do the same next month (although the PS3 having an exclusive edition of the game might have helped). And lastly, we have the critically acclaimed PS3 exclusive Heavy Rain coming in at 10th. Not great, considering how Mass Effect 2 (another console exclusive) did last month (and this month) and how Uncharted 2 did on the same console, but both were sequels which are easier to sell. But as many have noted, Heavy Rain was released towards the end of February, and so it was at an disadvantage compared to most of the other titles. This isn’t the first time Sony has done this with a platform exclusive, by releasing it towards the end of the month as opposed to giving it a whole month to gather sales. I don’t know what is the reason behind this, but they didn’t do this with Uncharted and it managed a number one, but they did it with inFAMOUS and I firmly believe that it could have ranked higher had it been released just a bit earlier. They also did this with Killzone 2, again costing it a few places in the charts perhaps. But I doubt Sony cares too much about the monthly NPD rankings, so games gets released when they get released, I suppose. For Nintendo, New Super Mario Bros. continue to rank, as does Wii Sports Resort, but some of the other usual entries, like Wii Fit Plus or Mario Kart, have been pushed out of the top 10. Overall, the Xbox 360 had the most titles in the top 10, and had 42.6% of sales. The Wii was second with 3 titles and 34.8%, and the PS3 did relatively well with also 3 titles (the equal most ever?) and 22.6%.

Here’s the complete list of the top 10 software sales:

  1. Bioshock 2 (Xbox 360, Take-Two) – 562,900
  2. New Super Mario Bros. Wii (Wii, Nintendo) – 555,600
  3. Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 2 (Xbox 360, Activision) – 314,300
  4. Just Dance (Wii, Ubisoft) – 275,400
  5. Wii Sports Resort (Wii, Nintendo) – 272,500
  6. Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 2 (PS3, Activision) – 252,800
  7. Mass Effect 2 (Xbox 360, EA) – 246,500
  8. Dante’s Inferno (PS3, EA) – 242,500
  9. Dante’s Inferno (Xbox 360, EA) – 224,700
  10. Heavy Rain (PS3, Sony) – 219,300

It’s time to make a prediction. I find it hard to make one for hardware sales because of the stock shortage issue, but if I had to go out on a limb, then I say the PS3 is second, behind the DS, and above the Wii and Xbox 360. I think the Xbox 360 will come fourth, with the Wii recovering a bit. The reason I say the PS3 is going to top the other home consoles is because of two things. One is called Final Fantasy XIII, the other is called God of War III. Having two huge releases in the same month should help hardware sales, but I wonder if it isn’t better to separate these two titles, which might get into each other’s way in terms of vying for gamers’ pocket money. But what do I know. In any case, there aren’t too many new releases for either the Xbox 360 or the Wii, so Sony could really clean up in March.

See you next month.

Game Consoles – January 2010 NPD Sales Figure Analysis

Monday, February 15th, 2010

The first figures from 2010 are out. December 2009 was a monster month for hardware sales, for the Nintendo consoles in particular. January usually means a considerable drop as the holiday sales period ends. But unlike most January’s, this one is harder to predict as we have the economy, the PS3 surge, the potential decline of the Xbox 360 and the usual stock shortage problems to contend with. The figures are from NPD, a marketing research firm that releases games console sale data every month.

The figures for US sales in January 2010 are below, ranked in order of number of sales (January 2009 figures also shown, including percentage change):

  • Wii: 465,800 (Total: 27.6 million; January 2009: 679,200 – down 31%)
  • DS: 422,200 (Total: 39.9 million; January 2009: 510,800 – down 17%)
  • Xbox 360: 332,800 (Total: 19 million; January 2009: 309,000 – up 8%)
  • PS3: 276,900 (Total: 11.4 million; January 2009: 203,000 – up 36%)
  • PSP: 100,100 (Total: 17 million; January 2009: 172,300 – down 42%)
  • PS2: 41,600 (Total: 45.3 million; January 2009: 101,200 – down 59%)
NPD January 2010 Game Console US Sales Figures

NPD January 2010 Game Console US Sales Figures

NPD Game Console Total US Sales Figures (as of January 2010)

NPD Game Console Total US Sales Figures (as of January 2010)

My prediction from last month was:

January should see huge sales drop across the board, but that’s just a seasonal thing. And as such, it’s very hard to predict the order of things, although I believe the hardware sales ordering will remain the same. On the software front, January will be largely quiet, Mass Effect 2 on the Xbox 360 should do well, and the rest of the top 10 should have a familiar look to December’s. There are some big releases coming in February and March, so consumers can take a breather in January (and save up).

January’s figures are a mixed bag really. While the ordering was largely the same, the only difference being the Xbox 360 and the PS3 swapping places, there were larger than expected drops for all the consoles. On the software front, Mass Effect 2 on the Xbox 360 did indeed do well, being a console exclusive, and the top 10 had a familiar look, although still room to add in a few new entries.

Compared to January a year ago, only the Xbox 360 and the PS3 managed sales growth. This the second January in a row that the Xbox 360 managed growth, and that’s probably largely thanks to Mass Effects 2. Last January, the PS3 actually recorded a sales drop compared to January 2008, but this January, the PS3 showed the most positive growth. But this has to be taken into context, as the PS3 was doing extremely poorly back in January a year go – take this into account, the PS3 only grew by a paltry 3% between the two January’s of 2008 and 2010 (and for the same comparison, Xbox 360 sales grew by 45%). Sony has said that stock issues were partly responsible, or will be in February at least. Whether that’s true, or it just signals the Slim/price cut led surge in sales is dissipating, we’ll have to wait until March and April’s stats come out to confirm. The Xbox 360 showed growth largely thanks to Mass Effect 2 one would guess, and sales are being kept above the PS3 thanks to strong software sales (including Modern Warfare 2) in two of the last three months.

Looking at the negatives, and there were a lot of them, the Wii continues on with its 30+% month to month drop in sales after taking a break in December. The DS also saw a drop of 17% compared to January 2009. While the PS3 managed growth, the other PlayStation consoles saw massive drops, with the PS2 dropping below 100,000 units sold for the first time since I’ve started recording figures (since September 2007). The PSP was only 100 units away from having this unwanted distinction as well. Both of these platforms are dying a slow death, the PS2 understandably (although Sony would have wanted more PS2 owners to upgrade straight to the PS3 than what is evident), but it’s the PSP that must be worrying for Sony, especially compared to the DS. And as mentioned in the 2009 year in review, the revenue increase from the PS3 doesn’t come anywhere near the revenue drop from these two consoles.

Lets move onto software. As expected, Mass Effect 2 did well, but not enough to unseat New Super Mario Bros. for the Wii, which held on to the top spot. All the usual Wii titles are in there, with only Wii Play missing out on a top 10 spot. Modern Warfare 2 is still selling relatively strong, both console versions are represented in the top 10, with the lower placed one the only PS3 title in the top 10 once again. The Xbox 360 had two more titles, making it a total of four – Army of Two: The 40th Day and Darksiders made the list at 8th and 10th. There was also a non Nintendo Wii title in the top 10 as well, with Ubisoft’s Just Dance sneaking in at 9th. The Wii needs more titles like this to be hitting the top 10 to remain viable in the long term.

Here’s the complete list of the top 10 software sales:

  1. New Super Mario Bros. Wii (Wii, Nintendo) – 656,700
  2. Mass Effect 2 (Xbox 360, EA) – 572,100
  3. Wii Fit Plus (Wii, Nintendo) – 555,700
  4. Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 2 (Xbox 360, Activision) – 326,700
  5. Mario Kart w/ Wheel (Wii, Nintendo) – 310,900
  6. Wii Sports Resort (Wii, Nintendo) – 297,600
  7. Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 2 (PS3, Activision) – 259,000
  8. Army of Two: The 40th Day (Xbox 360, EA) – 246,500
  9. Just Dance (Wii, Ubisoft) – 191,900
  10. Darksiders (Xbox 360, THQ) – 171,200

Prediction time. There are some big titles being released in February, several that will help the PS3 more than the Xbox 360, including the platform exclusive Heavy Rain, and while it’s no longer exclusive, Final Fantasy XIII should have a bigger following on the PlayStation platform than on the 360. As a result, I expect the PS3 to outsell the Xbox 360 at the very least and maybe make a run on the Wii. BioShock 2 should do well on the Xbox 360, but the usual Nintendo Wii titles should also be in the top 10.

See you next month.