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Game Consoles – June 2010 NPD Sales Figure Analysis

Saturday, July 17th, 2010

Well that was a short break. Thanks to the May figures being released late, and the June figures being released on time, we have a new NPD video game analysis for you only two weeks from the last one. May wasn’t anything to write home about in terms of sales, despite Red Dead Redemption and Super Mario Galaxy 2. June had some interesting developments, namely the mid month release of the new Xbox 360 Elite, you know the new slim version (even though Microsoft don’t ever use the term “slim”). The PS3 stock shortage issue seems to have cleared up, and Sony even managed to create a 250GB bundle early in June. So with all these happenings in mind, the hardware sales race heated up in June and it will be interesting to see if the stock shortage issue, which has been holding back PS3 sales, will finally allow the console, the “original” Slim if you will, to beat the “new” Xbox 360 slim. The figures are from NPD, a marketing research firm that releases games console sale data every month.

The figures for US sales in June 2010 are below, ranked in order of number of sales (June 2009 figures also shown, including percentage change):

  • DS: 510,700 (Total: 42.6 million; June 2009: 766,500 – down 33%)
  • Xbox 360: 451,700 (Total: 20.6 million; June 2009: 240,600 – up 88%)
  • Wii: 422,500 (Total: 29.6 million; June 2009: 361,700 – up 17%)
  • PS3: 304,800 (Total: 12.7 million; June 2009: 164,700 – up 85%)
  • PSP: 121,000 (Total: 17.4 million; June 2009: 163,500 – down 26%)
NPD June 2010 Game Console US Sales Figures

NPD June 2010 Game Console US Sales Figures

NPD Game Console Total US Sales Figures (as of June 2010)

NPD Game Console Total US Sales Figures (as of June 2010)

My prediction from last month was:

It’s time to make my usual predictions. With the PS3 stock shortage crisis over, PS3 sales should rise. The Xbox 360 would otherwise have been relegated to third place amongst the home consoles, but the new “slim” Elite may save the day, and maybe even sell enough to keep it above the PS3. I keep on expecting either the PS3 or Xbox 360 to outsell the Wii, but it hasn’t happened very often, and June is probably the same, although it has a greater chance than previous months. Not a huge month for new game releases though, so RDR may remain in the charts, with Super Mario Galaxy keeping up sales and possibly stealing a march on the RDR games.

So pretty spot on I would say, not hard though considering I only wrote the above two weeks ago. PS3 sales did improve, actually 97% better than in May, and very likely thanks to the end of the PS3 stock shortage crisis of 2010. Although I still don’t understand why the stock shortage had to occur in the first place. It seems to have cost the PS3 several months of beating the Xbox 360, and just as the stock issue cleared up, in comes a new Xbox 360 that again outsells it. And outsell the PS3 the new Xbox 360 did. And it even outsold the Wii, which I had semi-predicted above I suppose. Overall, it was an impressive 132% increase compared to last month, and the best non Holiday sales period for the console in some time. And even now, the new Xbox 360 SKU is still in the top 10, which is good news for Microsoft I guess. In fact, all hardware numbers were up compared to May, and historically, this has been the case in June. And software was almost exactly as I had predicted – a slow month still dominated by last month’s new releases.

Speaking more on the PS3, it seems the stock shortage was responsible for low sales, as once it cleared up, sales are way up. But I think a lot of the momentum from the release of the PS3 Slim has been lost in the last few month, and I don’t know who is to blame for it. It could be be because Sony underestimated the demand for the Slim (and the demand after the price cut) back in 2009, and sold all their future inventory during that time, and they’ve only been able to get supply to meet demand some 6 months into 2010. That’s the most believable scenario, but it still seems strange. Anyway, with stock no longer an issue. the PS3 is “expected” to outsell the Xbox 360 and maybe even the Wii, but that won’t happen until the excitement over the new Xbox 360 “slim” Elite dies down, probably just in time for Sony to launch Move. For Sony’s other console in the NPD data, the PSP, the news is less good. While it was up against the dismal May numbers, it’s still down 26% from a year ago, not as bad as recent results, but still bad. A PSP2 with some more innovation is what Sony needs right now.

For the Xbox 360, it was a very good month. The whole release process has been very well engineered by Microsoft. From the almost surprise announcement of the new form factor itself, to the really surprising announcement that it will ship within a week of the announcement, and the well designed nature of the new console (testing shows that it’s even more durable than the PS3 Slim), and the result is that it’s the second most popular console, the first most popular home based console, of June 2010. Let’s just hope Microsoft have plenty of stock of the new console, and won’t make the same mistake as Sony with their stock issues. And with news of a new Xbox 360 Arcade “slim” on the horizon, the momentum could carry the Xbox 360 all the way until Kinect is released, and that’s probably what Microsoft are counting on. I said at the start of 2010 that the Xbox 360 had to hold on to the lead it has over the PS3 until Project Natal, as it was known back then, was ready and Microsoft has done this and some extra. Of course, the PS3 stock did help Microsoft in this regard.

The Wii had another month of year to year growth, but that’s like comparing a poor month to a really really bad one. Well, not exactly, since it’s hard to say just what constitutes a good month or bad month. Compared to the PS2 lifecycle, the Wii is still doing very well. It’s only doing badly compared to itself two years ago, but Wii sales were never going to hold steady at those levels. So Nintendo will look at the year on year growth as a positive, not to mention the still healthy software sales (see below). The DS suffered another month of year on year sales drop, but this is like comparing a good month to a really really great one. When the 3Ds is released, Nintendo have another “great” month, I expect.

For software, not a great month for new releases as I had “predicted”. So we have lots of titles from last month still in the top 10. Interestingly, the only two new entries in the top 10 were all Wii titles, and both were third-party games. This is exactly what the Wii needs, for third party publishers to get a bite of the lucrative Wii trade, instead of always relying on Nintendo to come up with the goods. In fact, there are three non Nintendo produced Wii titles in the top 10 this month, although the best selling one was still a Nintendo production – Super Mario Galaxy 2. The continued success of Just Dance for the Wii actually bodes well for Microsoft I think, because Kinect will be able to do these types of games without breaking a sweat (unlike the people that are actually playing the game in question). Red Dead Redemption for the Xbox 360 held on to top spot this month, as did both of the UFC 2010 games. 6 of the top 10 were Wii titles, with two for Xbox 360 and two for the PS3. As usual, only sales figures for the top 5 are provided, and figures for the two new Wii titles are provided by Nintendo separately (hopefully Microsoft and Sony will catch on and also start releasing figures for the ones that don’t have it in the top 10).

Here’s the complete list of the top 10 software sales:

  1. Red Dead Redemption (Xbox 360, Take-Two) – 582,900
  2. Super Mario Galaxy 2 (Wii, Nintendo) – 548,400
  3. Red Dead Redemption (PS3, Take-Two) – 380,300
  4. New Super Mario Bros. Wii (Wii, Nintendo) – 200,900
  5. Just Dance (Wii, Ubisoft) – 174,800
  6. Wii Fit Plus w/Balance Board (Wii, Nintendo)
  7. Toy Story 3 (Wii, Disney) – 164,000
  8. UFC 2010: Undisputed (Xbox 360, THQ)
  9. LEGO Harry Potter: Years 1-4 (Wii, Warner Bros.) – 136,000
  10. UFC 2010: Undisputed (PS3, THQ)

Time to make a prediction. The new Xbox 360 Elite fever continues, and there’s a good chance it will outsell the Wii (and PS3) yet again. So my guess is that the order of the hardware sales will remain the same for July, but with hardware sales generally down a bit compared to June as historically has been the case. As for games, Super Mario Galaxy 2 to rule in the absence of any real quality new releases. NCAA Football 11 should make the top 10, the Xbox 360 version outselling the PS3 version. How can I forget Crackdown 2, the sequel to the very first Xbox 360 game I ever owned. It should do well, but topping the chart? I don’t know about that (it’s already 39th in the sales charts on Amazon, and that doesn’t look like a rank that belongs to a number one title).

See you next month.

Posted in Nintendo Wii, Wii U, Switch, NPD Analysis, PS3, PS4, Xbox 360, Xbox One | Comments Off on Game Consoles – June 2010 NPD Sales Figure Analysis

Game Consoles – May 2010 NPD Sales Figure Analysis

Friday, July 2nd, 2010

Slightly later than usual, due to NPD releasing their figures later, but better late than never. Or is it. With Awful April out of the way, everyone was keen to find out whether the next month be Merry or Miserable May. Once again, NPD is not providing PS2 sales numbers and only the top 5 game sales have sales figures. The figures are from NPD, a marketing research firm that releases games console sale data every month.

The figures for US sales in May 2010 are below, ranked in order of number of sales (May 2009 figures also shown, including percentage change):

  • DS: 383,700 (Total: 42.1 million; May 2009: 633,500 – down 39%)
  • Wii: 334,800 (Total: 29.2 million; May 2009: 289,500 – up 16%)
  • Xbox 360: 194,600 (Total: 20.1 million; May 2009: 175,000 – up 11%)
  • PS3: 154,500 (Total: 12.4 million; May 2009: 131,000 – up 18%)
  • PSP: 59,400 (Total: 17.3 million; May 2009: 100,400 – down 41%)
NPD May 2010 Game Console US Sales Figures

NPD May 2010 Game Console US Sales Figures

NPD Game Console Total US Sales Figures (as of May 2010)

NPD Game Console Total US Sales Figures (as of May 2010)

My prediction from last month was:

The PS3 shortage continues, and so it will still do poorly in sales I think, and probably outsold by the Xbox 360 with the hardware sales order remaining the same as this month. On the software front, the Xbox 360 version of Red Dead Redemption should be the top seller, with the PS3 version closely behind. Alan Wake, the much hyped Xbox 360 exclusive, should be in the top 10 as well. There might be room for the PS3 exclusive 3D Dot Game Heroes as well. Along with the usual Wii titles, the new Super Mario Galaxy 2 should rank in the top 10 as well. Overall sales should pick up compared to April, but probably still down year on year at least for the hardware figures.

I think most of what I posted came true, which is a rarity indeed. The PS3 stock shortage did hinder sales to the point where even growth compared to the same time last year was muted, although still comfortably up. I don’t know what’s the issue with Sony’s PS3 production, but the problem appears to have been sold for June already. Perhaps they were saving stock for an expected bump in sales in June, due to E3 and the announcement of Move, but who knows. For Sony’s other console (the one that still matters to the NPD), the PSP, sales are not doing too well, once again a 40+% drop in sales against a year before. The PSP really hasn’t decided what it wants to be, unlike the DS which has firmly established itself as the portable console of choice for an ever younger audience (of both genders, importantly). With iPhones, iPads and all sorts of portable devices, the traditional gaming demographic (young males) may be finding a dedicated console a bit of an overkill. Nintendo was wise to market the DS to anyone but the traditional gaming demographic.

The Xbox 360 continues to do well, once again outselling the same month last year, and outselling the PS3, which is all you can ask for really. The E3 surprise announcement of the new “slim” Elite and the subsequent almost immediate release means June was probably a good month for the Xbox 360, the new console having secured top of the sales charts for the last week or so at least on Amazon. The early pre-order numbers for Kinect is promising, certainly gathering a bit more interest on Amazon than the PlayStation Move, but these figures mean nothing right now – only when both add-ons get closer to their release date, will we then be able to see just which will be the most popular, and which will help generate console and software sales.

For Nintendo, a year-on-year growth for the Wii is rare these days, and so it was a good month. Unfortunately, DS sales dropped rather alarmingly again, that’s 58% and now 39% drops in sales, but this was up against the release of the DSi last year, and so it’s somewhat understandable. Nintendo will hope the 3DS will be the next must have console.

Speaking of Move, Kinect and the 3DS, I’ve just put up a poll asking which of these interest you the most – you can vote in it here.

Onto software sales now. As expected, Red Dead Redemption was top, with the Xbox 360 version not quite outselling the PS3 version by 2:1, but the days where the number of Xbox 360 consoles sold had a 2:1 margin over the PS3 are also gone as well (it’s now 1.62 to 1, which stacks up quite neatly to RDR’s 1.66 to 1 sales ratio for the Xbox 360 version). And as I noted last month, Super Mario Galaxy 2 also ranked in the top 10, at a high 3rd place too, just a few thousand units shy of 2nd place. This was one of three Wii titles in the top 10, the other two being the usuals (Wii Fit Plus and New Super Mario Bros.). The Xbox 360 did one better with 4 titles in the top 10, the exclusive Alan Wake as expected (but did poorly than I think what Microsoft would have wanted for such a hyped up game). The PS3 had two titles, including RDR and the multi-platform UFC 2010: Undisputed, which went close to outselling the Xbox 360 version of the same game. But without full figures for all the top 10 software sales, there’s no other analysis that I can provide, such as overall market share, but it would be safe to say that the Xbox 360 led the way, with the Wii in second place, and the PS3 in third.

Here’s the complete list of the top 10 software sales:

  1. Red Dead Redemption (Xbox 360, Take-Two) – 945,900
  2. Red Dead Redemption (PS3, Take-Two) – 567,100
  3. Super Mario Galaxy 2 (Wii, Nintendo) – 563,900
  4. UFC 2010: Undisputed (Xbox 360, THQ) – 221,200
  5. UFC 2010: Undisputed (PS3, THQ) – 192,300
  6. Wii Fit Plus w/Balance Board (Wii, Nintendo)
  7. New Super Mario Bros. Wii (Wii, Nintendo)
  8. Alan Wake (Xbox 360, Microsoft)
  9. Pokemon SoulSilver (DS, Nintendo)
  10. Skate 3 (Xbox 360, EA)

It’s time to make my usual predictions. With the PS3 stock shortage crisis over, PS3 sales should rise. The Xbox 360 would otherwise have been relegated to third place amongst the home consoles, but the new “slim” Elite may save the day, and maybe even sell enough to keep it above the PS3. I keep on expecting either the PS3 or Xbox 360 to outsell the Wii, but it hasn’t happened very often, and June is probably the same, although it has a greater chance than previous months. Not a huge month for new game releases though, so RDR may remain in the charts, with Super Mario Galaxy keeping up sales and possibly stealing a march on the RDR games.

See you next month (or sooner, if NPD don’t again delay the stats).

Posted in Nintendo Wii, Wii U, Switch, NPD Analysis, PS3, PS4, Xbox 360, Xbox One | 1 Comment »

Weekly News Roundup (27 June 2010)

Sunday, June 27th, 2010

A combination of a busy week for me personally, and a relatively quiet news week (World Cup related?), means there’s not much going on this week. There is so little this week that there is good justification for not even publishing a WNR this week. Well, not exactly that little going on, but the lazy side of me almost convinced me to skip. Unfortunately for you, I decided in the end to write this edition instead, so you’ll have to put up with even more ranting (given the absence of real news) than usual.

Copyright

Starting with copyright news, I know I just said a paragraph ago that nothing much happened, except something really big did happen during the week, something of a landmark perhaps in the struggle between copyright holders and the Internet.

Viacom Logo

Viacom will be licking their wounds after having their massive lawsuit against YouTube thrown out of court

The big news was of course the judge’s decision to throw out Viacom’s lawsuit against Google’s YouTube. The judge decided that Viacom didn’t really have a case at all, not when YouTube is protected by the “safe harbor” provisions found within the DMCA. Safe harbor provides protection to publishers like YouTube as long as they show an adequate effort in trying to prevent copyright infringement. YouTube has always had a policy of removing copyrighted content if the copyright holders complain, and so the judge thought this was more than adequate. The fact that YouTube revealed Viacom employees may have been secretly uploading copyrighted content for promotional purposes may also have helped YouTube’s case. To be fair, this decision wasn’t a total surprise. Nearly defunct video sharing website Veoh won a similar lawsuit against the Universal Music Group, and that set the precedent to allow YouTube to get this victory this week. What this all means is that the court system now recognises that it may be impossible for mega websites like YouTube to completely prevent unauthorised copyrighted material appearing on their website, but that as long as they have a working policy in place, then the copyright holders should also share the burden of identifying and removing unauthorised content. The copyright holders, as always, want others to do their job because they believe that this problem was created by the Internet and the companies that profit from them, which to be fair, is a valid point. However, the same Internet has also provided many benefits and new opportunities to the same copyright holders, and it’s not anyone else’s fault if they choose not to take advantage.

Of course, Viacom will appeal, and who knows how the next judge will rule, especially in a technology based court case – the decision is very much based on how the judge grasps the technical issues. However, even Viacom must admit that YouTube’s anti-piracy tools are much more advanced than when Viacom first decided to sue, so perhaps part of their objectives has been achieved already, to make YouTube take copyright more seriously. When it comes to copyright, the current YouTube is much more copyright holder friendly, almost too friendly, what with the recent bout of “Downfall Hitler” parody removals. Perhaps this win will allow YouTube to readjust their removal policy to be a bit more balanced.

BPI Logo

Is the BPI planning to sue Google, and if they were, will they still do it after Viacom's court setback?

While Google has just successfully escape one lawsuit (for now), techdirt believe that they may be set up for another one, this time over in the UK by the BPI. They analysed the way the BPI filled DMCA notices, and noticed the odd way in which it was done which reminded them of the way Viacom operated. The plan seems to be to get Google to be responsible for removing pirated content on file hosting networks such as RapidShare, again an attempt by copyright holders to get others to do their hard work. Of course, this was before the Viacom decision was handed down, so even if the BPI had plans to sue Google, they may be reconsidering now.

There seems to be many ways to fight piracy, but nobody has really consulted the public as to what they think will help reduce piracy. PC Advisor ran a poll, and like many similar polls, the results are always interesting. The public mostly understands the wishes of copyright holders to stop piracy, but most of them feel that this can be achieved via better pricing and better services, something I’ve echoed on these pages frequently. Of course, consumers always want to pay less for more, but the digital revolution actually allows for this to happen without hurting bottom lines (and may even help enhance it). Very few people will completely agree with the industry’s current anti-piracy strategy, which ranges from “legal blackmail” (as described by politicians in the UK, in response to actions by groups similar to the US Copyright Group’s mass litigation/pre-trial settlement mailings) to lobbying, or rather, scaring politicians to pass illogical and draconian laws to help the industry protect its income (do any other industries get the same level of support, from all major political parties, as the music and movie industries?)

Vice President Joe Biden

Here's a picture of Vice President Joe Biden thinking hard about how he can be of even more help to his RIAA/MPAA buddies

But when lobbyist speak, the politicians listen, and the Obama administration has been very good friends with the RIAA and MPAA for the first part of their term in office. Vice President Biden, a long time friend of the RIAA, launched the White House’s new anti-piracy crackdown this week. Once again, Biden likened online piracy to actual store theft, and this time even increased the hyperbole by adding physical violence/damage to the equation. “This is theft, clear and simple. It’s smash and grab, no different than a guy walking down Fifth Avenue and smashing the window at Tiffany’s and reaching in and grabbing what’s in the window,” said Biden. Well, I think it’s a bit different to that actually. For the Tiffany’s example, there is actual physical damage (I would say this, in the online world, would equate to server hacking and damage of some kind), plus, what is stolen cannot be replaced without additional cost to the owner of the goods. This is simply not true with digital downloads, because the “original” has not been moved or damaged in any way. If anything, it’s more like someone walking into Tiffany’s, looking at a design for an engagement ring, and then going home and recreating the exact same ring at their own cost. This is also a sort of copyright theft, in that the design of the ring was “stolen”, and you could argue that Tiffany’s lost money due to a lost sale. But as you can see, this is very different to grabbing a brick and smashing up Tiffany’s to steal a ring. It’s hard to tell if Biden said this because he really wanted to help his RIAA/MPAA buddies, or whether he really believes this to be the case. If the latter is correct, then we’re all in big trouble, because paying lip service to your friends in politics is at least common place (although you may say ignorance is common place as well).

The administration’s new initiative did have any real specifics, but hinted at supporting industry attempts to get the ACTA shoved down the throat of citizens around the world, and even offered some kind of support for the controversial actions of the US Copyright Group. You would expect liberal institutions like the ACLU and the EFF to be in agreement with the Obama administration, but both have come out against the actions of the USCG, going as far as filing a friend of the court brief to prevent the USCG lumping thousands of defendants into the same lawsuit. The judge then asked USCG to explain why they did this, and the USCG now has replied to the court saying that the BitTorrent infrastructure is what made them do it. It argues that users of the same swarm upload and download from each other simultaneously while trying to obtain a full copy of the file in question, and so that’s how the defendants are linked. Of course, there’s no evidence that any of the defendants were part of the same swarm at all, and this also highlights one of the often ignored technical points of BitTorrent file sharing – that most users do not upload an entire copy of the file to any other user, only pieces, which when looked at as a piece of data, is completely useless. The technical argument to make here would be that because each users is only contributing a very small part of the pirated file, then perhaps the damages should reflect this as well. And if an user somehow managed to download a full copy of the file without providing any uploads, and thus only break the law in respect to obtaining pirated material, and not “make available” such materials, would their actions be more or less damaging than someone who uploaded hundreds of full copies of the same file? If you buy a pirated DVD from a stall, did you commit the same crime as the stall vendor who produced and sold the pirated DVD? These are all interesting questions I would like to see addressed in a full trial, but that’s something the USCG do not want, apparently.

Samsung 3D Bundle

Where is my damn 3D TV, Samsung?

That’s all the copyright news I had, and there isn’t much going on in terms of Blu-ray, 3D or gaming, certainly not as much as I would have to write about if I had my 3D TV at home, instead of still being on pre-order. Come on Samsung, don’t disappoint me.

There is actually a bit of gaming news that I didn’t post online, and that’s rumours of the Xbox 360 Kinect being priced at $119.95, as opposed to the widely believed price point of $150. The $150 Kinect is already selling quite well, certainly better than the PlayStation Move, so a cheaper Kinect might do even better. I do remember some Microsoft dude hinting that people will be very happy with the eventual Kinect pricing, which I suspect means the official pricing will be lower than what Amazon and others think it is now. If the news is still slow next week, then I will write up something about my thoughts on Move, Kinect and the Wii. It is my opinion that the Wii is actually a big failure *if* you do not count Nintendo’s software contributions to it, and it’s very unlikely Nintendo will help out  Sony and Microsoft to make fun games for the Move/Kinect. Can Sony and Microsoft succeed where Nintendo has failed, to get third party publishers to produce great games that utilize each company’s motion control system, and if they fail in the same was in this regards as Nintendo, can Sony and Microsoft do what Nintendo can do with titles like Wii Sports, Wii Fit and Mario Kart?

That’s all for this week. I warned you there wasn’t much happening didn’t I? Hoping for more stuff next week …

Posted in Copyright, News Roundup, Nintendo Wii, Wii U, Switch, PS3, PS4, Xbox 360, Xbox One | Comments Off on Weekly News Roundup (27 June 2010)

Weekly News Roundup (13 June 2010)

Sunday, June 13th, 2010

What started as a pretty quiet week in terms of news turned a bit more busy in the last few days. E3, the US Copyright Group, Adobe, Sony all made the news later on in the week, whether it was new rumours, or new downloads, it’s all covered by this week’s Weekly News Roundup. Are you enjoying the World Cup? I’m not a big fan of the Vuvuzelas though, nor drums, bells, whistles, or anything else that makes artificial stadium noise. Cheering, singing, chanting, swearing, and the occasional round of claps, is what it’s all about. Hearing the crowd’s anticipation, nervousness, exhilaration, depression, makes the game a much better spectacle, and I think the players appreciates the interaction with the crowd as well. Vuvuzelas and other artificial noise drowns out all of these, and I think it takes something away from the beautiful game. But it also does drown out the Samsung plasma buzz, so silver lining and all.

Speaking of Samsung plasma TVs, I still haven’t gotten mine yet, so no watching the World Cup in 3D 🙁

Copyright

Starting with copyright news, the Canadian DMCA is still under consultation, but the IFPI, the RIAA’s International wing, has come out attacking the proposed changes as not going “far enough”. You know what, if the RIAA and their axis of evil friends don’t like it, then perhaps there’s something to like about the DMCA.

I think the RIAA’s biggest problem with the bill is that it finally makes CD ripping legal, and format shifting as well (so CD to MP3 => legal). But there’s nothing they can do about that now, since CDs don’t have DRM, a decision the RIAA may forever regret (not that having DRM actually stops piracy or anything, but at least it makes ripping them illegal in the eyes of the law, with the caveat that prosecuting someone for ripping their own CD/DVDs for personal use is likely to end up a futile endeavour).

But it again just highlights the stupidity of making the breaking of DRM illegal (exemptions apart), regardless of the intentions behind the attempted break. If CDs don’t have DRM, does it then make it legal to pirate CDs? Of course not. The music labels still have the same level of legal protection as movie studios when it comes to DVDs that do have DRM. And is DVD DRM preventing DVD ripping or piracy? Of course not. And with DVD (and even Blu-ray) DRM so easy to break, it’s about as useful in stopping piracy as making users read those unskippable copyright notices at the start of the disc. Of course, in the area of placing limits on what users can do with their own stuff, then it’s a huge success. While the some studios and anti-piracy agencies claim they would never sue anyone for breaking DRM for personal purposes, the fact is that if they wanted to, they can. It’s having this level of power and control that made the studios fall in love with DRM in the first place, not its value (or lack of it) in fighting piracy.

Freedom of Speech Censored

Just what is freedom of speech, and what is "making available" pirated downloads?

And just how far can this power grab by studios go? Well, if you live in the Netherlands, then it can go very far indeed. A Dutch court has just ruled that even talking about piracy may be a crime. The case relates to an Usenet community, in which the user “spots” potential downloads. Not by linking or anything, by simply talking about the general location of where downloads are located. Apparently, this is just as bad as linking, which is just as bad as hosting, in the court’s eyes. What’s next? Guilty of copyright infringement for even thinking about illegal downloads? Thought-crime anyone? I think this is another instance of legal authorities not really understanding the way the Internet works. The Internet was designed by the US military as a way for communications to still work even after a massive nuclear attack, and this works by building a “web” of connections, allowing every server to potentially route to every other. And not only is the underlying connection all connected, web pages containing links can also link to potentially every other website in the world, depending on how many links you want to hop to. And then there are search engines like Google, which aims to be able to link to every resource on the Internet. So what does all of this mean? It means that if direct hosting, direct linking, indirect linking and now even indirect discussions are all illegal, then by the way the Internet works, every site can potentially link to the illegal download in question, every router can potentially carry the illegal download to the end user, every search engine can potentially allow users to find the illegal download in question, and so every website on the Internet is illegal. I now finally understand why the CEO of Sony Pictures said that nothing good has come out of the Internet being invented.

The RIAA wants the assets of LimWire and its creator to be frozen, because they want to seek billions in terms of damages. Billions! I think I’ve said this before, but I would really love for the RIAA to prove just how they derive their claimed losses due to piracy, and the only way may very well be for all pirated content providers around the world to stop for a month, just a month, and see how much more money the RIAA makes during this time (if any). Then time this by 12, and then the RIAA will have their annual “loss” figure. Would I be surprised if this figure turns out to be negative, in that the RIAA may make *less* money as people stop listening to their music (illegally, for free) for a month and they lose the free publicity the Internet provides musicians? Not really.

ACLU

The ACLU is joining forces with the EFF to help users fight against mass BitTorrent lawsuits

The rest of the week was dominated by louder and louder condemnations of the way the US Copyright Group is going about its anti-piracy “pre-trial settlement” business. The EFF and ACLU are stepping in and they want a judge in charge of ruling on one of the USCG’s mass subpoenas to dismiss all but one of the subpoenas. They say that the USCG must present evidence that all of the John Does as part of the subpoena have been joined in the same lawsuit for a reason, that they were all part of the same transaction or have some kind of common connection. You see, some groups uses this kind of “subpoena spam” to greatly simplify things for themselves, and may only be using these subpoenas as a way to threaten people to pay up, with no real intentions of going to court. But the ACLU and EFF may very well want a full trial, and if they can get the right decision, then the USCG may have to stop their very lucrative business. If the ACLU/EFF can get in touch with many of those that claim they’re innocent of the acts that the USCG has charged them with, then perhaps winning a trial won’t be too difficult. These kind of mass mailings always catches a few innocents, those that have had their connection hacked, or IP spoofed, but most will pay up to avoid the trouble of going to court, especially when threatened with the possibility of $150,000 in damages that the USCG may seek. And the USCG is targeting more and more movies, with sources claiming that they are watching 300 illegally download films, and if they only record 500 IP addresses for each movie, then that’s 150,000 potential “pre-trial settlement” payments, and even if just 50% of those pay up the minimum amount required by the USCG, then we’re already taking about more than a hundred million dollars in terms of income.

This makes me think that something will be done about the USCG’s actions, but it will be something that’s even worse I think, as the government can use the actions of the USCG to justify things like three-strikes, which they will promise that any new laws will come with safeguards to prevent companies that seek to profit too much from anti-piracy activities without at least giving users some warning first. Three-strikes is better than one strike, after all. If I was the head of the MPAA, I would use groups like the USCG to do all sorts of nasty things and then use this mythical bogeyman as a way to scare people into thinking that something only slightly better, but still very bad (like three-strikes), is the right, better solution. It’s better, but it’s not good (take note Larry David), and it may eventually become worse.

High Definition

Onto HD/3D news. I know in my 3D Blu-ray – What’s it all about? blog post I mentioned the lack of 3D Blu-ray titles for general sale, but it seems I spoke too soon, because Sony are readying their first general release 3D Blu-ray movie to be made available June 22nd. The title is Cloudy With a Chance of Meatballs, and it will be followed shortly by others titles.

Cloudy With a Chance of Meatballs (Blu-ray 3D Version)

You can finally buy a Blu-ray 3D movie, but it's gonna cost you!

This is good news, and more “real 3D” content means it will be easier to benchmark the various 3D TVs so we can find out for sure which current technology, LED/LCD or plasma, is better for 3D, and which particular models are best at it. There’s a big question mark around using Samsung’s exclusive Monster vs Aliens, since some of the ghosting artifacts found when watching the movie may in fact be a problem with the movie encoding, as opposed to Samsung’s 3D technology. But it’s a bit pricey though, at $36 on Amazon, that’s twice as expensive as most other Blu-ray movies. Ouch.

3D notebooks will be everywhere, with Toshiba joining Acer and Asus, amongst others, to release a new 3D enabled notebook. This seems a bit gimmicky for me, even on top of the “gimmickiness” of 3D. 3D requires a big screen and controlled lighting environment for the best enjoyment, and I’m just not sure notebook screens can offer this. Plus, 3D gaming requires a lot of GPU power, and this is something that notebook cannot do, compared to desktops and consoles. But if these machines can be connected to 3D TVs and used as 3D Blu-ray players, then perhaps that’s where they may be useful.

Adobe has finally release version 10.1 of their Flash player. Despite the minor version number change, this one includes a lot of changes, and it took long enough to get from beta to gold as well. The most important new features is GPU assist support, which may make HD YouTube finally playable on certain netbooks and CULV laptops. My first impressions were that CPU usage was down, but playing a 1080p YouTube clip was still more processor intensive than playing a Blu-ray movie via PowerDVD, so hopefully more improvements can be made in this area (but the nature of the Flash plugin will always mean more overhead I suppose).

Blu-ray firmware updates are far too frequent it seems for the average user, many of whom don’t even know what a firmware is. This is one stumbling block for Blu-ray on its path towards mainstream acceptance. DVD players didn’t have this problem, and there’s always an inherent danger in firmware updates, since if the power goes out during the middle of an update, then the player could be fried unless it was well designed to prevent this sort of thing from happening (like some kind of firmware reset function).

Gaming

And finally in gaming, with E3 just around the corner, there’s plenty of rumours about what each of the major companies will be promoting during the show. I’ve collected some of the popular rumours in this post, with ratings on how likely each rumour will turn into fact.

We know Sony will be promoting Move, Microsoft will be promoting Project Natal (or whatever they’re calling it by this time tomorrow), but will the 3DS be the only thing Nintendo has to show? Nothing for the Wii? Nothing like a Wii 2 or Wii HD to steal Move/Natal’s thunder? I find it all hard to believe. Watch this space.

Speaking of the 3DS, some developers that have had a chance to play with the hardware say that it is as powerful as the Xbox 360 and PS3. Now I find this even harder to believe. Can the 3DS give Xbox 360, PS3 like graphics on the lower resolution screen, perhaps, since what will look good at 720p on a big TV, will look similar at much lower resolution on the smaller screen. So perhaps this is what was meant. But graphics has never been what the DS (or any of Nintendo’s other consoles) are about. And 3D without glasses could be fun.

For 3D with glasses, the PS3 now has some 3D games for you to try out, no firmware update required since the required update had already occurred in April, so all you need to do is to update the supported games themselves (if you’ve already purchased them). Some people who have tried it say it’s fantastic, of course I can’t test it for myself because my 3D TV hasn’t arrived yet 🙁

And so we come to the end of yet another Weekly News Roundup. E3, and perhaps another round of NPD figures (for May), will ensure the next issue of the WNR will be fairly gaming dominated, for a change. Have a good one.

Posted in 3D, Computing, Copyright, Electronics, High Definition (Blu-ray/HD DVD/4K), News Roundup, Nintendo Wii, Wii U, Switch, PS3, PS4, Video Technology, Xbox 360, Xbox One | Comments Off on Weekly News Roundup (13 June 2010)

Game Consoles – April 2010 NPD Sales Figure Analysis

Monday, May 17th, 2010

It’s that time of the month again, and NPD has released the April 2010 US video games sales figures for this little blog to analyse. March was a big month for the PS3, and all eyes are on the Sony console to see if it can repeat the stellar performance in April. NPD itself has a few changes, in that they are no longer counting PS2 sales (perhaps Sony should take the hint and formally declare it end of line), and they are also not providing all the figures for the top 10 game sales, which makes analysis a little bit more difficult. The figures are from NPD, a marketing research firm that releases games console sale data every month.

The figures for US sales in April 2010 are below, ranked in order of number of sales (April 2009 figures also shown, including percentage change):

  • DS: 440,800 (Total: 41.7 million; April 2009: 1,040,000 – down 58%)
  • Wii: 277,200 (Total: 28.8 million; April 2009: 340,000 – down 18%)
  • Xbox 360: 185,400 (Total: 19.9 million; April 2009: 175,000 – up 6%)
  • PS3: 180,800 (Total: 12.3 million; April 2009: 127,000 – up 42%)
  • PSP: 65,500 (Total: 17.3 million; April 2009: 116,000 – down 44%)
NPD April 2010 Game Console US Sales Figures

NPD April 2010 Game Console US Sales Figures

NPD Game Console Total US Sales Figures (as of April 2010)

NPD Game Console Total US Sales Figures (as of April 2010)

My prediction from last month was:

I think the PS3 will outsell the Wii in April. This is based on the strong software numbers for March, plus the stock shortage issue being resolved finally which will give the PS3 a bump in sales. While there’s no new major PS3 exclusive in April, Super Street Fighter IV will be available, and based on the non Super version of the fighting game, the PS3 version should outsell the Xbox 360 version as well. Tom Clancy’s Splinter Cell Conviction, which is a console only exclusive for the Xbox 360 (there’s also a PC version), should do well, and God of War III should still be charting. So another good month for the PS3, with better hardware numbers, but probably slightly lesser software domination, for April.

What I failed to take into account was the Easter sales effect, and with Easter sales event coming in March this year, as opposed to April of last year, this accounts for quite a bit, but not all, of the sales drops recorded for April (compared to March). The double whammy is that while the Easter sales event happened in March, the Easter holiday period occurred in April, and so sales were further subdued as a result. And therefore, none of the consoles sold better in April than in March. The PS3 did not outsell the Wii. The PS3 didn’t even outsell the Xbox 360, but only losing to it narrowly. The game predictions were pretty much spot on, but with overall sales down 26% compared to April 2009 (21% of it attributed to Easter, probably), everything sold in fewer numbers.

The PS3 stock shortage appears to be continuing, at least when looking at Amazon. So this is perhaps one of the reasons why the PS3 isn’t dominating as it should based on recent game releases. This stock shortage has been going on far longer than it should have – I don’t know what the reasons are, but it can’t be helping Sony. PS3 sales still grew by 42% compared to the same month last year, but April 2009 was a bad month for the console, as it had the dubious record of being outsold by the PS2 during that particular month. What is more worrying for Sony is the PS2 and PSP. As mentioned earlier, the NPD has stopped tracking PS2 numbers, giving Sony a hint as to the future of the last-gen console. Perhaps it’s time Sony finally retires this ageing console, so they can concentrate all efforts on the PS3. They certainly won’t be concentrating efforts on the PSP, which has recorded yet another month of dismal sales. Recording what is the worst set of results since release, the PSP is seriously out of ideas, being outsold by the DS by almost a 7:1 margin this month, the total units sold gap between the DS and PSP has grown from 15.6 million units in April 2009 to 24.4 million just a year later.

The Xbox 360 continued to outsell the PS3, and continues to grow in a year-to-year comparison, a modest 6% increased compared to April 2009. If Sony is hoping to close the gap between the Xbox 360 and the PS3 total units sold in the US, then they’re doing about it the wrong way in regards to managing the stock shortage, and if anything, the gap has grown wider in recent month. And if Sony is hoping the PlayStation Move will help the PS3, then they have to hope Project Natal flops for the Microsoft console. E3, which will occur around this time next month, will give us a strong hint as to whether Move or Natal will dominate holiday sales based on the reception both demos get at the expo. But as long as the Xbox 360 is outselling the PS3, even if only by a small margin, Microsoft can’t be too unhappy with the results.

For Nintendo, the picture isn’t great this month. The DS recorded a huge 58% drop in sales compared to the same time last year, and even if you take into account the Easter effect, there’s still a drop in sales. The Wii continues to drop in sales, down 18% compared to last year. The Wii’s sales decline can be traced to April 2009, when it started to show signs of weakness. But the DS is still outselling the PSP easily, and the Wii is still outselling both the PS3 and Xbox 360 relatively easily, so it’s not time to panic yet for Nintendo. But they need something up their sleeves for the Wii if they want to continue to dominate after both Sony and Nintendo release their motion control systems.

On to software sales now. The month’s most popular title was Tom Clancy’s Splinter Cell: Conviction for the Xbox 360, outselling the number two title, which was also last month’s number two title, Pokemon SoulSilver, by more than a 2:1 margin. Conviction was a console exclusive for the 360. God of War III slipped to 5th place after last month’s monster 1st place finish. And as expected, Super Street Fighter IV on the PS3 outsold the Xbox 360 version, by a 1.3-to-1 margin – the previous Street Fighter game also sold more on the PS3 than on the Xbox 360. The usual Wii titles are in the mix, New Super Mario Bros, Wii Sports Resort and Wii Fit Plus, and also Just Dance, which refuses to go away. The other Xbox 360 title in 7th place was Battlefield: Bad Company 2, which outsold the PS3 version by around a 1.6-to-1 margin. Note that NPD did not provide figures for Wii Fit Plus this month, but knowing the sales numbers for the titles just above and below it, we can estimate sales at between 144,000 units and 166,000 units. For the sake of compiling market share percentage figures, sales for Wii Fit Plus can be  estimated to be 155,000, and if using this figure, the Wii games had 32.5% of the top 10 with 4 entries, closely followed by the Xbox 360 games on 31.2% for just two titles. The PS3 had two titles in the top 10, with 15.5% of the top 10 units sold. The two Pokemon DS titles accounted for the rest. It was interesting to note that both Final Fantasy versions not only disappeared from the top 10, they disappeared from the top 20 as well.

Here’s the complete list of the top 10 software sales:

  1. Tom Clancy’s Splinter Cell: Conviction (Xbox 360, Ubisoft) – 486,100
  2. Pokemon SoulSilver (DS, Nintendo) – 242,900
  3. New Super Mario Bros. Wii (Wii, Nintendo) – 200,300
  4. Pokemon HeartGold (DS, Nintendo) – 192,600
  5. God of War III (PS3, Sony) – 180,300
  6. Wii Sports Resort (Wii, Nintendo) – 179,000
  7. Battlefield: Bad Company 2 (Xbox 360, EA) – 166,000
  8. Wii Fit Plus w/Balance Board (Wii, Nintendo) – 155,000 (estimated)
  9. Just Dance (Wii, Ubisoft) – 144,000
  10. Super Street Fighter IV (PS3, Capcom) – 143,000

Prediction time. The PS3 shortage continues, and so it will still do poorly in sales I think, and probably outsold by the Xbox 360 with the hardware sales order remaining the same as this month. On the software front, the Xbox 360 version of Red Dead Redemption should be the top seller, with the PS3 version closely behind. Alan Wake, the much hyped Xbox 360 exclusive, should be in the top 10 as well. There might be room for the PS3 exclusive 3D Dot Game Heroes as well. Along with the usual Wii titles, the new Super Mario Galaxy 2 should rank in the top 10 as well. Overall sales should pick up compared to April, but probably still down year on year at least for the hardware figures.

See you next month.

Posted in Nintendo Wii, Wii U, Switch, NPD Analysis, PS3, PS4, Xbox 360, Xbox One | 2 Comments »

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