As NPD no longer releases full hardware sales figures, this feature is reliant on the game companies, namely Microsoft, Nintendo and Sony, to release their set of figures and based on “statement math” (that is, arithmetically calculate missing figures based on statements made). For December 2011, these are the statements made by the gaming companies:

• Nintendo did not reveal any figures for December 2011
• Microsoft revealed “more than” 1.7 million Xbox 360 hardware units sold, with 46% of the home based console market share (source)
• Sony did not reveal any figures for December 2011

With only the above information, it becomes impossible to work out the estimated numbers for both the Wii and the PS3. Luckily, analyst Michael Pachter again came to the rescue, via Twitter, stating the Wii sales were in fact 55% down from the same month a year ago. With this piece of crucial information, we are then able to deduce the Wii numbers, and from this and the 46% market share figure quoted by Microsoft, we are then able to estimate the PS3 numbers too.

And so the figures for US sales in December 2011 are below, ranked in order of number of sales (December 2010 figures also shown, including percentage change):

• Xbox 360: 1,700,000 (Total: 30.9 million; December 2010: 1,860,000 – down 8.6%)
• Wii: 1,060,000 (Total: 37.7 million; December 2010: 2,360,000 – down 55%)
• PS3: 936,000 (Total: 18.9 million; December 2010: 1,210,000 – down 22.6%)

NPD December 2011 Game Console US Sales Figures

NPD Game Console Total US Sales Figures (as of December 2011)

My prediction from last month was:

Same hardware ordering, and a software chart that looks very similar to this month’s, so there’s nothing much to add to that really.

While the software chart has a lot of titles that were there in November, the hardware ordering actually changed, with the PS3 dropping back down to third place, after finishing above the Wii last month.

Overall, looking at the figures above, and the “sea of red”, December 2011 has been nothing short of a disastrous month for video game sales, especially compared to last December. As mentioned earlier, a huge percentage of sales occur in December, but this last particular December did not even out do the previous month, when historically, this has almost always been the case. In fact, for hardware sales, the raw numbers were at its lowest since 2005.

Microsoft was probably the “winner”, if you can call it that (more like the smallest loser), with only an 8.6% drop in console sales, and level in sales with November. The NPD pointed to the strength of the Xbox 360 throughout the year, saying that the Xbox 360 platform accounted for nearly 40% of annual physical retail sales, across all categories. Still, if you count November and December together as one period, then 2011 has been good to the Xbox 360, with 3.4 million consoles sold, compared to 3.23 million a year ago. Microsoft probably had hoped the Kinect Star Wars game and console bundle would have made it in time, helping to push the console, and Kinect, to the next level, but the delay to the game means that there were no real A-list Kinect titles for this holiday period (unless you count Kinect Sports 2, and Dance Central 2, as A-list titles).

Despite finishing as the third most popular console, the PS3 was probably in second place overall, when you look at the year-to-year decrease figure, as well as performances across both November and December. Nearly 1.84 million PS3 consoles were sold during November and December, compared to 1.74 million consoles in 2011. So the good news is that, things are not that bad, while the bad news is that, the Xbox 360 appears to be pulling further ahead in the United States, where during the same period, it had almost twice as many sales (and more console sales during the holiday period, means more game sales for the rest of next year, and also means a strengthening multiplayer community, the growth of which relies on people using the same console as their friends).

So the real loser is, once again, Nintendo. The Wii, previously the unstoppable juggernaut during December sales, is no more, and is relegated to a distant second place behind the Xbox 360. For November and December, 1.92 million Wiis were sold, compared to 3.63 million in 2010 – in fact, more Wiis were sold in December of 2010 alone, than November an December of 2011 combined! A 55% year-on-year drop shows that the Wii is no longer the “must-have” video game gift, with some of the sales going to the Xbox 360 (not many, looking at the figures above), and possibly lots of sales going to things like tablets and smartphones, the new home of casual gaming.

And that’s probably the best way to look at things for the video game industry as a whole, for the most recent holiday period. The industry has benefited from the Wii becoming a must-have gift item for the last several holiday periods. Kinect has contributed to the same phenomenon, but it just hasn’t been the same. And with so many other gadgets to distract the holiday shopper, and also the economy, the decline can almost been seen as a return to normal, after a couple of years of extraordinary performance led by the Wii. Maybe the Wii U will bring back the same thing next year, but expectations must be readjusted.

As for software sales, it was also down compared to December 2010. MW3 led the chart again, with Skyrim dropping to third after the resurgence of Just Dance 3. Interestingly, looking at total sales for 2011, the ordering of the top 3 was exactly the same as the December top 3, showing that Call of Duty, and perhaps surprisingly, Just Dance, were the top 2 franchises for 2011. Mario Kart 7 on the 3DS was the only new entry into the top 10 in December. Here’s the full software sales chart for December (new releases for December 2011 in bold):

1. Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 3 (Activision, Xbox 360, PS3, Wii, PC)
2. Just Dance 3 (Ubisoft, Wii, Xbox 360)
3. Elder Scrolls V: Skyrim (Bethesda, Xbox 360, PS3, PC)
4. Mario Kart 7 (Nintendo, 3DS)
5. Battlefield 3 (EA, Xbox 360, PS3, PC)
6. Madden NFL 12 (EA, Xbox 360, PS3, Wii, PS2, PSP)
7. Assassin’s Creed: Revelations (Ubisoft, Xbox 360, PS3, PC)
8. NBA 2K12 (Take-Two Interactive, Xbox 360, PS3, PS2, PSP, Wii, PC)
9. Super Mario 3D Land (Nintendo, 3DS)
10. Batman: Arkham City (Warner Bros, Xbox 360, PS3)

Predicting January is always difficult, as the post holiday lull will be here, and there would usually be stock issues (although with the low sales this year, maybe this won’t be an issue). I suspect, other than huge drops in console sales figures for all consoles, the PS3 will probably regain 2nd place, with the Xbox 360 still the top selling console. A subdued month as well for software sale.

See you next month.

As NPD no longer releases full hardware sales figures, this feature is reliant on the game companies, namely Microsoft, Nintendo and Sony, to release their set of figures and based on “statement math” (that is, arithmetically calculate missing figures based on statements made). For November 2011, these are the statements made by the gaming companies:

• Nintendo reveals the Wii sold 860,000 units, with “more than 795,000″ 3DS consoles, and “more than 350,000″ units of DS (via PR email)
• Microsoft revealed 1.7 million Xbox 360 hardware units sold, with 49% of the home based console market share (source)
• Sony said that the PS3 hardware saw a “70% increase” in sales (via Patrick Seybold, Sr. Direcrtor of Corporate Communications at SCEA)

Luckily, all the statement maths added up this month, since from Microsoft and Nintendo’s statements, we can deduce the PS3 numbers to be around 900,000, and that falls into line with Sony’s “70% increase” statement (increase compared to the same time last year).

And so the figures for US sales in November 2011 are below, ranked in order of number of sales (November 2010 figures also shown, including percentage change):

• Xbox 360: 1,700,000 (Total: 30.9 million; November 2010: 1,370,000 – up 24%)
• PS3: 900,000 (Total: 18.9 million; November 2010: 530,000 – up 70%)
• Wii: 860,000 (Total: 37.7 million; November 2010: 1,270,000 – down 32%)

NPD November 2011 Game Console US Sales Figures

NPD Game Console Total US Sales Figures (as of November 2011)

My prediction from last month was:

It’s the holiday period proper, sales will be way up, and Modern Warfare 3 will help in this regard as it breaks all records. The Xbox 360, the preferred platform of MW3 and also with a new Halo game being released, will be the clear winner yet again, but it will be interesting to see if the Wii can have one last good holiday period, and there’s a new Zelda game too, so that always helps. The PS3 does have Uncharted 3 though. If I have to guess, I would say the PS3 will beat the Wii. The top games will be the ones I’ve already mentioned, plus Skyrim.

I think the above paragraph actually sums up November quite well.

The Xbox 360 was easily the clear winner, but the margin of victory was larger than most has expected. Most expected the Xbox 360 to be the best selling console, but with only moderate growth compared to the same month last year, the first holiday period for Kinect and the new “slim” Xbox 360. But Microsoft surprised everyone with a series of key price cuts, bundles, and sales, and just like how the Wii’s second holiday period was even better than the first thanks to its status as a “must-have” family gift, perhaps the Kinect is doing the same for Microsoft this time round. In any case, a 24% increase in sales compared to last November is nothing to be scoffed at, especially when last November was an amazing 67% up compared to the previous November. Here in Australia, Microsoft has also been super aggressive in discounting the Xbox 360, to prices that are practically half that of just a few months ago, and the Kinect bundle also seeing huge discounts at selected retailers. If this is the same strategy employed in other countries as well, then the Xbox 360 should have a great holiday period, and not just in the US (perhaps this is Microsoft’s response to PS3 sales that have nearly or already caught up to the 360 global sales numbers).

The PS3 also had a great November, although nowhere near as good as the Xbox 360, with the 360 almost selling twice as many units. The 70% increase compared to last November looks spectacular, but one has to take into account that last November, the PS3 sold fewer units than in 2009 (25% down actually). Compared to 2009, PS3 sales are up around 26%, so at the very least, last year’s trend has been reversed with the key price cut that came in the middle of the year. Sony also promoted the fact that PS3 software sales are up 30%, and that, more so than hardware numbers, is what Sony really likes to see (although hardware numbers obviously do help to raise the software numbers, and that’s more of a case now than the first few years of the PS3, when many used it as a cheap way to get a Blu-ray player).

It looks like 2010 was the last great holiday period for the Wii. While sales are not bad this year, they’re nowhere near the million+ figures from yesteryear. And this will be the last holiday period for the Wii as Nintendo’s lead console anyway, with the Wii U set to play a key role this time next year. Still, to label the Wii as a “loser” or “dead” is doing the console a disservice, since it still nearly outsell the PS3, and nobody it calling it a “dead” console.

On to software. As expected, MW3 completely dominated the sales charts, with incredibly, 9 million units of the game selling on all platforms, with over a billion dollars in sales. Battlefield 3 fell to 3rd place as a result, but it’s still the best selling Battlefield game in the series. Skyrim, the game many are already calling game of the year, managed to get second place and that’s probably quite impressive for a game in this genre, and certainly in the Elder Scrolls series, where it’s only taken a month for the latest installment to sell without half a million of the last installment’s lifetime sales number. Assassin’s Creed: Revelations, Saints Row: The Third contributed to the strong software line-up for November, making it the best November on record, despite recent trend suggesting that wouldn’t have been the case. For platform exclusives, Uncharted 3 did extremely well to get up to 7th place with 700,000 units sold, ahead of the new Zelda game at 600,000. Super Mario Land 3D and Halo: Combat Evolved Anniversary didn’t make the combined platforms top 10, but would have easily made the top 10 separated by SKU. Here’s the full software sales chart for November (new releases for November 2011 in bold):

1. Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 3 (Activision, Xbox 360, PS3, Wii, PC)
2. Elder Scrolls V: Skyrim (Bethesda, Xbox 360, PS3, PC)
3. Battlefield 3 (EA, Xbox 360, PS3, PC)
4. Assassin’s Creed: Revelations (Ubisoft, Xbox 360, PS3, PC)
5. Just Dance 3 (Ubisoft, Wii, Xbox 360)
6. Madden NFL 12 (EA, Xbox 360, PS3, Wii, PS2, PSP)
7. Uncharted 3: Drake’s Deception (Sony, PS3)
8. Saints Row: The Third (THQ, Xbox 360, PS3, PC)
9. The Legend of Zelda: Skyward Sword (Nintendo, Wii)
10. Batman: Arkham City (Warner Bros, Xbox 360, PS3)

My prediction for December? Same hardware ordering, and a software chart that looks very similar to this month’s, so there’s nothing much to add to that really.

Except for the obligatory, “see you next month”!

As NPD no longer releases full hardware sales figures, this feature is reliant on the game companies, namely Microsoft, Nintendo and Sony, to release their set of figures and based on “statement math” (that is, arithmetically calculate missing figures based on statements made). For October 2011, these are the statements made by the gaming companies:

• Nintendo reveals the Wii sold nearly 250,000 units, more than 250,000 3DS consoles, and nearly 180,000 DS (via PR email)
• Microsoft revealed 393,000 Xbox 360 hardware units sold, with 44% of the home based console market share (source)
• Sony did not reveal any hardware figures

With only a rough estimate for the Wii numbers, it’s hard to come up with an exact figure for the PS3, but assuming Nintendo’s “nearly 250,000″ is much closer than 250,000 than 240,000, then combined with the Microsoft released data (if 393,000 is 44%, then 100% is  893,182, and taking out the Wii and 360 numbers from this), we get roughly 250,000 units for PS3 sales.

And so the figures for US sales in October 2011 are below, ranked in order of number of sales (October 2010 figures also shown, including percentage change):

• Xbox 360: 393,000 (Total: 29.2 million; October 2010: 325,000 – up 21%)
• PS3: 250,000 (Total: 18 million; October 2010: 250,000 – no change)
• Wii: 250,000 (Total: 36.8 million; October 2010: 232,000 – up 8%)

NPD October 2011 Game Console US Sales Figures

NPD Game Console Total US Sales Figures (as of October 2011)

My prediction from last month was:

I think the hardware situation will remain largely the same. Games wise, Batman: Arkham City and Battlefield 3 go head to head, with Forza 4 on the Xbox 360 possible making the top 10 as well as a platform exclusive.

Fairly close to the reality, I suppose, although the strength in which Battlefield 3 sold probably surprised everyone, despite the hype suggesting it was always going to do well. And the only other “surprise” is the PS3 numbers, and how close it came to actually selling fewer units than the Wii (and it may have done so too, since our “statement maths” above isn’t too accurate based on roundings and precision errors).

Starting with the healthiest number, the Xbox 360 had another amazing month, as not only did it managed to easily beat the other two consoles, it also managed year-on-year growth compared to October 2010 – no mean feat considering we had the “Slim”, price cut and Kinect to give sales a bump, and nothing like that this year. But 21% growth is nothing to be scoffed at, and it’s clear that, at least in the US, the Xbox 360 is the dominant console of this generation, despite Wii still having quite a large lead at the moment (but if you look at the number of active players, the number of hit games, the online multiplayer scene, the multimedia hub features – the Wii is not in the same league as the Xbox 360). Global Xbox 360 sales, while still leading the PS3 probably at this point, may give up its lead sometime soon, but if you have to pick a clear winner for this generation, then based on the growth of the platform and the long term effects on the next generation and beyond, the Xbox 360 is a clear winner.

The PS3 is by no means a loser, and if Sony keep to their word of a 10-year product life for the console (and Microsoft follow Nintendo’s lead and release a new console before then), then the PS3 might still end up being the best selling console of this generation, at least in global sales. But compared to the last generation, in which the PS2 outsold the Xbox by more than a 6-to-1 margin (and outsold Nintendo’s GameCube by even more), then you can’t but feel that while PS3 may eventually “win”, the victory is somewhat hollow when you consider the decline from the totally dominating position the PlayStation platform was in the last gen. Of course, this kind of dominance would never really be long lasting (just ask Sega, or Nintendo before the Wii), but the company’s lack of focus on online gaming, too much focus on Blu-ray and the subsequent delay to the release of the console, the relative developer unfriendly platform (which was always going to be to Microsoft, a software company’s, advantage), the lack of attention to family/social gaming (the Wii sucks, but here’s Move, our version of it), and various setbacks including the recent PSN hack, were all mistakes that could have been prevented or at least mitigated. So coming into the holiday period, with sales flat compared to the same month last year, and battling the Wii to be a distant second place, it’s not where Sony wanted to be (they had hoped most PS2 owners would have upgraded to a PS3 by now, but instead, the Xbox 360 and the Wii stepped in to fill the “hardcore” and “family fun” void).

The Wii, for what it was, and what it has achieved, is also a huge success. Sure, most Wii consoles are now gathering dust somewhere (guilty as charged), but for a slightly enhanced version of the GameCube with a new innovative control system, it has done amazingly well. But much of it has been at the expense of losing all hardcore gamers to the other platforms, a situation Nintendo wants to address with the graphically powerful Wii U (because hardcore gamers keep playing, and keep buying games, not so much casual gamers who get distracted easily as soon as a new tablet or smartphone hits the market). If the Wii was about getting Nintendo back in the game, and a game where they were close to “going the way of Sega” in the last gen (the Xbox sold more units than the GameCube, despite it being a clunky first effort by a company that has never done console gaming, compared to the pro that is Nintendo).

Don’t know why this analysis has turned into a “look back at” type of deal, considering this generation still has a long way to go, but it just felt appropriate for some reason, as this may be the last holiday period where these 3 consoles compete in.

Let’s move on to game sales. Battlefield 3 broke all records (before MW3 will do the same this/next month), which is no surprise. BF3 fever affected me personally as well, having played and be completely pwned in the beta, I was out for more punishment and so bought a copy of the PC version. In fact, I was so caught up in the fever, I actually bought two copies (long story)! With 10 million copies shipped (as in to retailer, with 5 million of these actually “sold”), it’s a success. Batman: Arkham City, in any other month, would have been the clear winner, oh well. Again highlighting the dominance of the Xbox 360 in the US, two platform exclusive titles, the newly released Forza 4 and last month’s Gears of War 3, were in the top 10, a difficult proposition for single platform releases, as they were up against all platforms combined sales figures for the multi-platform games. Also interesting is that Just Dance 3 managed a top 10 entry, despite not being available on the PS3 until December. Ubisoft hasn’t said why the PS3 version is delayed, but I’m sure Microsoft will notch it up as a victory for Kinect over the Move. Here’s the full software sales chart for October (new releases for October 2011 in bold):

1. Battlefield 3 (EA, Xbox 360, PS3, PC)
2. Batman: Arkham City (Warner Bros, Xbox 360, PS3)
3. NBA 2K12 (Take-Two Interactive, Xbox 360, PS3, PS2, PSP, Wii, PC)
4. Rage (Bethesda, Xbox 360, PS3, PC)
5. Just Dance 3 (Ubisoft, Wii, Xbox 360)
6. Dark Souls (Namco, PS3, Xbox 360)
7. Madden NFL 12 (EA, Xbox 360, PS3, Wii, PS2, PSP)
8. Forza Motorsport 4 (Microsoft, Xbox 360)
9. Gears of War 3 (Microsoft, Xbox 360)
10. FIFA 12 (EA, Xbox 360, PS3, Wii, PS2, PSP, 3DS)

Time to make my usual prediction. It’s the holiday period proper, sales will be way up, and Modern Warfare 3 will help in this regard as it breaks all records. The Xbox 360, the preferred platform of MW3 and also with a new Halo game being released, will be the clear winner yet again, but it will be interesting to see if the Wii can have one last good holiday period, and there’s a new Zelda game too, so that always helps. The PS3 does have Uncharted 3 though. If I have to guess, I would say the PS3 will beat the Wii. The top games will be the ones I’ve already mentioned, plus Skyrim.

See you next month.

As NPD no longer releases full hardware sales figures, this feature is reliant on the game companies, namely Microsoft, Nintendo and Sony, to release their set of figures and based on “statement math” (that is, arithmetically calculate missing figures based on statements made). For September 2011, these are the statements made by the gaming companies:

• Nintendo reveals the Wii sold 240,000 units, with 260,000 3DS consoles, and 145,000 DS (via PR email)
• Microsoft revealed 438,000 Xbox 360 hardware units sold, with 42% of the home based console market share (source)
• Sony did not reveal exact figures, but said that the PS3 hardware sale increase 20% year-on-year (Sony statement, via Senior Director of Corporate Communications at SCEA, Patrick Seybold)

Unfortunately for this month, Microsoft and Sony’s statements do conflict with each other a bit. Using Microsoft’s statement, PS3 sales can be deduced to be 364,857 units, but according to Sony’s own statement, the figure is more like 374,400 (20% more than September 2010’s 312,000). Obviously, there are rounding errors from all the company’s statements, so giving Sony the benefit of the doubt, we’ll presume the PS3 sales figure for September 2011 is the higher 374,400.

And so the figures for US sales in September 2011 are below, ranked in order of number of sales (September 2010 figures also shown, including percentage change):

• Xbox 360: 438,000 (Total: 28.8 million; September 2010: 483,989 – down 9.5%)
• PS3: 374,400 (Total: 17.7 million; September 2010: 312,000 – up 20%)
• Wii: 240,000 (Total: 36.6 million; September 2010: 254,000 – down 5.5%)

NPD September 2011 Game Console US Sales Figures

NPD Game Console Total US Sales Figures (as of September 2011)

My prediction from last month was:

I think the Xbox 360 will still come out as the top selling console for September 2011, mainly due to ‘Gear of War 3′, but the PS3 will definitely come closer than it did this month, and with ‘Resistance 3′, it too might benefit from a platform exclusive. The Wii will be third. Games wise, ‘Gear of War 3′ looks set to be a top seller, despite being a platform exclusive release. ‘Resistance 3′, on the other hand, doesn’t look to have the same effect, although it will still sell well. Combined platforms sales may even push ‘Dead Island’ to the top of the charts.

I got the hardware ordering spot on, although it really wasn’t that hard to predict what was going to happen. The PS3 did get closer to the Xbox 360 sales, but it’s clear now that the 360 is now the dominant console in the US, and not even a PS3 price cut can affect its status it seems (unless that price cut was a more substantial $100, for example). For the game predictions, Madden was actually the top selling title, followed by Gears of War 3. And ‘Dead Island’ did manage to put its way high up in the charts, in 3rd place. Resistance 3, on the other hand, only finished 7th, not the worst result, but the average critical response to the game may have had some effect.

So the Xbox 360 continues its winning streak, by not only becoming the dominant home based console, but it’s also the best selling console for September, period. Looking at the life to date sales numbers, the Xbox 360 continues to pull ahead of the PS3, and continues to get closer to the Wii, to the point where the difference between the Wii and 360 numbers is actually less now than the difference between the 360 and PS3 numbers. Because of the Xbox 360’s dominance with multi-platform releases in North America, namely that if the same game is on multiple platforms, the Xbox 360 version is usually the most popular, the hit releases planned for the next few month starting with Batman: Arkham City and Battlefield 3 next month, and MW3 and Elder Scrolls V: Skyrim in November, will all benefit the Xbox 360 more. The it appears that the 360’s exclusives, such as Halo and Gears of War, appear to be far more popular than the PS3’s line up, including ‘Resistance’ this month.

But you cannot say the PS3 performed badly for September – after all, it was the only console to see year-on-year growth, but just like how the other consoles found it difficult to compete with the PS2 in the last generation, the PS3 is having a hard time trying to catch up to the Xbox 360 (and Wii, for the early parts anyway) in this generation (although the gap between the consoles is much less pronounced than the last generation). Taking off my fanboy hat for a moment, the truth is that both the PS3 and Xbox 360 are excellent game consoles with excellent game line ups and fantastic multimedia capabilities. Each console has their own pros and cons, and thanks to the Xbox 360’s head-start, the Wii’s (then) innovative control system, and the PS3’s Blu-ray drive, we now have a much more balanced set of competitors, and that can only be good for gamers, who should consider themselves lucky to be able to enjoy so many great games in the last few years.

The Wii, right now, is the only loser, but it’s not something Nintendo are unaware of, and the Wii-U will set to address many of the shortcomings of the Wii console, but also maintain Nintendo’s reputation for producing fun, family based games.

For game sales, Madden’s delay from August to September allowed it to rule the roost for the month, but Gears of War 3 would be considered the best selling Xbox 360 game for the month, the Madden ranking includes all platform sales. Dead Island was the only original franchise in the top 10, and it did well to come in 3rd, but it also shows that, unlike movies, gaming sequels are actually welcomed by gamers, and usually are huge improvements on the original, not just an opportunity to cash-in (take note Hollywood). FIFA’s high ranking highlights the growing popularity of “soccer” games, beating NHL 11, something it didn’t do last year this time. And a 10th place for Warhammer 40,000: Space Marine is a good result for the franchise. Electronic Arts are the real winners, with 3 of the top 10 titles belonging to them, and the all important first place too. Here’s the full software sales chart for September:

1. Madden NFL 12 (EA, Xbox 360, PS3, Wii, PS2, PSP)
2. Gears of War 3 (Microsoft, Xbox 360)
3. Dead Island (Deep Silver, Xbox 360, PS3, PC)
4. FIFA 12 (EA, Xbox 360, PS3, Wii, PS2, PSP, 3DS)
5. NHL 12 (EA, Xbox 360, PS3)
6. Deus Ex: Human Revolution (Square Enix, Xbox 360, PS3, PC)
7. Resistance 3 (Sony, PS3)
8. Lego Star Wars III: The Clone Wars (LucasArts, Wii, NDS, Xbox 360, 3DS, PS3, PSP, PC)
9. Call of Duty: Black Ops (Activision Blizzard, Xbox 360, PS3, Wii, NDS,PC)
10. Warhammer 40,000: Space Marine (THQ, Xbox 360, PS3, PC)

Time to make my usual prediction. I think the hardware situation will remain largely the same. Games wise, Batman: Arkham City and Battlefield 3 go head to head, with Forza 4 on the Xbox 360 possible making the top 10 as well as a platform exclusive.

See you next month.

As NPD no longer releases full hardware sales figures, this feature is reliant on the game companies, namely Microsoft, Nintendo and Sony, to release their set of figures and based on “statement math” (that is, arithmetically calculate missing figures based on statements made). For August 2011, these are the statements made by the gaming companies:

• Xbox 360 sold 308,000 units, “maintaining the # 1 console spot in the U.S. for 2011″ (source: @majornelson)
• Xbox 360 holds 43% home based console market share (Microsoft statement)
• Wii sells “more than 190,000″ units (Nintendo press release)
• Sony blames “inventory restraint” for sales in the first half of August, but “PS3 hardware sales were very strong the last two weeks of the month following the $50 price cut” (Sony statement)

Knowing both the Xbox 360 and Wii hardware numbers, and also knowing that the Xbox 360 held 43% of the home based console market share, the PS3 hardware sale is calculated to be an estimated 218,000 units.

And so the figures for US sales in August 2011 are below, ranked in order of number of sales (August 2010 figures also shown, including percentage change):

• Xbox 360: 308,000 (Total: 28.4 million; August 2010: 356,700 – down 14%)
• PS3: 218,000 (Total: 17.5 million; August 2010: 226,000 – down 4%)
• Wii: 190,000 (Total: 36.3 million; August 2010: 244,300 – down 22%)

NPD August 2011 Game Console US Sales Figures

NPD Game Console Total US Sales Figures (as of August 2011)

My prediction from last month was:

With the PS3 price drop coming in just a few days ago, this is just the sort of major event that makes predictions extremely difficult. There’s no doubt in my mind that the PS3 won’t come last again (Wii has the third spot amongst the home based consoles locked up), but the main question is can the PS3 outsell the Xbox 360? The price cut being only $50, and with no new console coming with the price cut like two years ago, maybe it will just come short, but it will be a close run race that’s for sure. For games, again, there’s nothing really of note. Usually at this time of the year, Madden NFL dominates, but with the Madden NFL 12 coming at the end of August, it may not have enough time to make such a major impact this time, although it will probably still be the best seller based on pre-orders alone. No More Heroes: Heroes’ Paradise for the PS3 and Deus Ex: Human Revolution seems to be the only two other notable releases in August.

The PS3 didn’t come last, and the Wii did, but this was an easy prediction to make. But it appears I overestimated the effect of the $50 price cut, and with Xbox 360 sales growing compared to July, the race wasn’t a “close run” one at all, with the Xbox 360 still comfortably retaining first place amongst the home based consoles.  For software, Madden NFL 12’s delay meant that it was not even included in August’s stats as it fell outside of the NPD August sales window (August is counted as a 4 week reporting period by the NPD, lasting from the 31st of July to the 27th of August), while of the two notable new releases, Dues Ex: Human Revolution was predictably the top selling title.

Let’s focus first on the PS3 numbers, and just how much of an effect the $50 price cut has had. On the surface, it looks like the effect was minimal, but dig a little deeper, and the sales bump will seem a bit more robust. Since the price cut only occurred half way through August, the first thing we need to do is to establish a marker for pre price cut sales. Generally (and historically) speaking, there is very little difference between July and August sales, but August tends to sell a few more consoles than July. Since nothing dramatic actually occurred for the Xbox 360, and the only effects being negative (due to price drop of PS3, encouraging more gamers to buy the PS3 over the Xbox 360), the rise of 360 units from 35-day reporting period of July to the 28-day reporting period August 0f roughly 11% could indicate “normal” seasonal growth.

Or not. So let’s take half of this number and say that, had the PS3 not had a price cut, it too would have grown 5.5%. This would make PS3 sales roughly 156,000 units for the whole month of August, or 5,571 units per day, had the price drop not occurred. The price cut was announced on the 16th of August, and so leaving the price cut only 12 days to affect the August NPD figures (again due to the premature end of the NPD reporting period at the end of august), with the first 16 days of the month “business as usual”. This means that prior to the price cut, 89,143 PS3 units were sold, leaving 128,587 being sold after the price cut. This means an increase from 5,571 units per day to 10,716 units per day (127,587 divided by the 12 days of the price cut) after the price cut, practically doubling sales as a result. This means that had the PS3 price cut lasted for the whole 28 day reporting period, PS3 sales would be almost exactly 300,000 units, only 8,000 units shy of the Xbox 360. Had I simply assumed that PS3 sales would have stayed completely flat between July and the first 16 days of August, PS3 unit sales may have reached as high as 311,000 units.

September would have told us a lot more about the full effect of the PS3 price cut, but the Xbox 360 exclusive ‘Gears of War 3′ should help Xbox 360 hardware numbers more than any other PS3 release would do for the PS3 hardware numbers. And with similar high profile releases that generally favour the Xbox 360 in the coming month, the bump from the PS3 price cut may just fall short of making the PS3 more popular than the Xbox 360 during this holiday period.

For the Xbox 360, a solid 11% rise from July to August allowed it to sit comfortably as the best selling home based console, but as noted earlier, it could have been different if the PS3 price cut had come earlier. Hardware sales are down some 14% compared to the same month last year, but again, this is mostly due to the “Slim” sales bump back then.

For the Wii though, August was just as bad as July, and it looks like from this point onwards, it will be third place out of three.  The Wii declined the most compared to August 2010 than any of the other consoles, which means that the rumours surrounding the rushing of the Wii U to market, and the “development hell” (source: n4g.com) that ensues, might show Nintendo is more worried about the Wii decline than they’re letting on.

For game sales, August was a disappointing month, due to the lack of new releases, and the delay of Madden NFL 12 to the September reporting period. So Deus Ex: Human Revolution was actually best selling title across all platforms, even though it was only released for 5 days in the August reporting period. The ‘Just Dance’ franchise continues to be the best selling Wii exclusive titles, but in better times, a Nintendo first party title, like Mario Kart (now bundled with consoles) or Wii Play would have been one of the titles. Here’s the full software sales chart for August:

1. Deus Ex: Human Revolution (Square Enix, Xbox 360, PS3, PC)
2. NCAA Football (Take 2, Xbox 360, PS3)
3. Call of Duty: Black Ops (Activision Blizzard, Xbox 360, PS3, Wii, NDS,PC)
4. Phineas and Ferb: Across the 2nd (Disney, NDS, Wii, PS3)
5. Cars 2 (Disney, NDS, Wii, Xbox 360, PS3, PC)
6. Just Dance Summer Party (Ubisoft, Wii)
7. Just Dance 2 (Ubisoft, Wii)
8. Lego Pirates of the Caribbean (Disney, Wii, Xbox 360, NDS, PS3, 3DS, PSP, PC)
9. The Legend of Zelda Ocarina of Time 3D (Nintendo, NDS)
10. Zumba Fitness (Majesco, Wii, Xbox 360, PS3)

Time to make a prediction. I think the Xbox 360 will still come out as the top selling console for September 2011, mainly due to ‘Gear of War 3′, but the PS3 will definitely come closer than it did this month, and with ‘Resistance 3′, it too might benefit from a platform exclusive. The Wii will be third. Games wise, ‘Gear of War 3′ looks set to be a top seller, despite being a platform exclusive release. ‘Resistance 3′, on the other hand, doesn’t look to have the same effect, although it will still sell well. Combined platforms sales may even push ‘Dead Island’ to the top of the charts.

See you next month.

The figures for US sales in July 2011 are below, ranked in order of number of sales (July 2010 figures also shown, including percentage change):

• Xbox 360: 277,000 (Total: 28.1 million; July 2010: 443,500 – down 38%)
• Wii: 190,500 (non official estimate) (Total: 36.1 million; July 2010: 253,900 – down 25%)
• PS3: 148,000 (non official estimate) (Total: 17.3 million; July 2010: 214,500 – down 31%)

NPD July 2011 Game Console US Sales Figures

NPD Game Console Total US Sales Figures (as of July 2011)

My prediction from last month was:

I think the Xbox 360 will experience its first year-on-year decline in ages, but still comfortably stay at the top of the home based console hardware sales charts, leaving the Wii and PS3 to fight it out for second and third place, and I think the Wii might be better positioned to win for some reason. It’s NCAA Football season again, so it will be the top seller, but otherwise, not a huge month for games again.

An almost perfect prediction, a rare event indeed. The Xbox 360 did experience its first major year-on-year decline, and it actually was the biggest fall out of the three home based consoles, but despite this, it still managed to comfortably be the best selling home console for July 2011, which is on record as the worst performing month since October 2006. And as I had predicted, the Wii won the fight against the PS3 for second place, but in full honestly, both of these consoles performed horribly, adding to the misery that is July. And new hit games were far a few between in July, and so game sales slumped as well.

As expected, the Xbox 360 saw its first major year-on-year decline since 2009 (I think). It is expected because this time last year, the new Xbox 360 “Slim” had just been released, and the sales surge from this event actually managed to give the console a 119% lift in sales compared to July 2009. So obviously, with no new consoles in July 2011, year-on-year sales dropped as a result, and I suspect this will continue for a few more month. The Xbox 360 was still the best selling home based console, with a massive 45% of the home based console market share for July – that it sold almost twice as many units as the PS3 is testament to its growing dominance.

Despite a price drop, the Wii languished in a distant second place, dropping 25% in sales from the same month last year (which was even compared to July 2009). There’s not much positive things one can say about the Wii, and coupled with alarmingly decreasing DS/3DS sales (prompting Nintendo to drop prices on the 3Ds only a couple of month after release), Nintendo will hope there are no delays to the release plans of the Wii U.

As for the PS3, this appears to be the worst month since July 2009, with a 30% sales drop compared to last year. And unlike the Xbox 360, the PS3 really has no excuses. There’s still growth between 2009 and 2011 (of around 20.5%, compared to the Xbox 360’s 36.5%), but this is comparing the pre-Slim and pre-price cut PS3, with the current one. Which is probably why Sony has just announced a price cut for the PS3, which should allow sales to surge a bit.

So overall a pretty bad month for video games, but with the economy the way it is and with most of the consoles many years into its release cycle, it’s probably not unexpected. For games, it’s been a quiet month as well, with NCAA Football dominating as it usually does at this time of the year. Just Dance 2 for the Wii continues to show off its staying power in the top 10, this time coming 5th. Here’s the full software sales chart for July:

1. NCAA Football (Take 2, Xbox 360, PS3)
2. Cars 2 (Disney, NDS, Wii, Xbox 360, PS3, PC)
3. Call of Duty: Black Ops (Activision Blizzard, Xbox 360, PS3, Wii, NDS,PC)
4. Lego Pirates of the Caribbean (Disney, Wii, Xbox 360, NDS, PS3, 3DS, PSP, PC)
5. Just Dance 2 (Ubisoft, Wii)
6. Major League Baseball 2K11 (Take 2, Xbox 360, Wii, NDS, PS3, PS2, PSP, PC)
7. Zumba Fitness (Majesco, Wii, Xbox 360, PS3)
8. Fallout: New Vegas (Bethesda, Wii, Xbox 360, PS3)
9. New Super Mario Bros. (Nintendo, NDS)
10. Mortal Kombat (Warner Bros., Xbox 360, PS3)

Prediction time. With the PS3 price drop coming in just a few days ago, this is just the sort of major event that makes predictions extremely difficult. There’s no doubt in my mind that the PS3 won’t come last again (Wii has the third spot amongst the home based consoles locked up), but the main question is can the PS3 outsell the Xbox 360? The price cut being only $50, and with no new console coming with the price cut like two years ago, maybe it will just come short, but it will be a close run race that’s for sure. For games, again, there’s nothing really of note. Usually at this time of the year, Madden NFL dominates, but with the Madden NFL 12 coming at the end of August, it may not have enough time to make such a major impact this time, although it will probably still be the best seller based on pre-orders alone. No More Heroes: Heroes’ Paradise for the PS3 and Deus Ex: Human Revolution seems to be the only two other notable releases in August.

See you next month.

The figures for US sales in June 2011 are below, ranked in order of number of sales (June 2010 figures also shown, including percentage change):

• Xbox 360: 507,000 (Total: 27.8 million; June 2010: 451,700 – up 12%)
• PS3: 276,000 (estimated) (Total: 17.1 million; June 2010: 304,800 – down 9%)
• Wii: 273,000  (Total: 35.9 million; June 2010: 422,500 – down 35%)

NPD June 2011 Game Console US Sales Figures

NPD Game Console Total US Sales Figures (as of June 2011)

My prediction from last month was:

No big changes, so the same hardware ordering as this month. The new top selling games will be Infamous 2 and Duke Nukem Forever (on a side note, ‘Forever’ really is such an apt name for the game considering the development time), but the overall top sellers will be some of the same titles as in May.

If my estimation of PS3 hardware sales is correct, then I was wrong about the ordering of hardware sales, although it was a close run affair between the PS3 and the Wii. Software wise, both Duke Nukem Forever and Infamous 3 made their marks on the top 10, but more on that later.

Starting with the PS3 hardware estimation, I think it’s best I go over the estimation process, which ironically, were mostly based on statements made by Microsoft, since Sony made no mention of their hardware results this month. It all comes from the slightly vague Microsoft statement about having a “48% share of the overall current-generation console market share”. It’s vague because when Microsoft talks about “current-generation”, it’s unclear if they’re referring to all consoles, or just the home based consoles, but it should be the latter, since the former won’t make sense. And Microsoft should also be talking about June only, since for life-time wise, and even 2011-wise, the “48%” market share just doesn’t add up. And armed with the “knowledge”, and knowing both the Xbox 360 and Wii’s hardware stats, it’s then quite easy to estimate the PS3’s hardware sales number for June, which comes to around 276,000. And Microsoft’s other statement about nearly selling twice as many units as their nearest competitor seems to support this number, since any higher, and Microsoft wouldn’t have been able to make the claim without stretching the meaning of the term “nearly”.

At first glance, this seems to be a good result for Sony. PS3 hardware sales are up more than 100,000 units compared to the previous month, and it did beat the Wii, if the numbers are correct. So why didn’t Sony (loudly) pronounce these set of good results, and instead, went all quiet in their press release in regards to the hardware numbers? I can only guess is that there was no year-on-year growth for the PS3 in June, as June 2010 recorded higher sales for the console. If my estimation is correct, this breaks a 4 month trend in which the PS3 has seen year-on-year growth, and perhaps this is what Sony didn’t want to focus on (especially, given the PSN hack, media “hacks” will jump to the conclusion that the breaking of the trend is a direct result of the hacking outage). But more careful analysis shows that June 2010 was a better than usual month for the PS3, which I attributed back then to the clearing up of the PS3 stock shortage problem that hurt sales for the console throughout the first half of 2010 (June 2010 was 85% higher than June 2009). So for the PS3 to not perform as well in June 2011 as in June 2010, is really no big deal, and the decline was mild anyway, nothing like that of say, the Wii.

Which brings us to the Wii. 35% down compared to the same month last year, and nothing really positive can be said of the Wii, other than the fact that, for such a technologically inferior console, it’s done remarkably well and surely has already made Nintendo enough money. And with the Wii U already announced, the Wii’s results will become less and less important for Nintendo as they concentrate on the development of the Wii U.

And last, but certainly not the least, we have the tremendous Xbox 360 numbers. Nearly double that of last month’s results, and the only console yet again to show year-on-year growth. This is made more remarkable by the fact that, this time last year, the new “Slim” model came out, and the sales bump associated with it meant that it was always unlikely that the Xbox 360 would have any sort of year-on-year growth, but here we are. Now, some of this can be attributed to various bundling deals Microsoft had, including the deal where selected PC purchases get a free Xbox 360, and the fact that the “Slim” didn’t go on sale until midway through June 2010. So next month, we could see the first ever year-on-year sales decline for the Xbox 360 in quite  a while (versus last year’s sales bump), although it’s still a shoe-in to win the best selling console of the month award. Regardless, it’s been an impressive year for the Xbox 360, and the “Slim” has been a huge success, since it now makes the Xbox 360 the most balanced console in terms of price, performance (no more RRoD!), and audience (both hardcore and casual/family gamers are well catered for).

Onto software sales, or games. L.A. Noire retains top spot, as the new releases, Duke Nukem Forever and the PS3 exclusive Infamous 2 could not unseat the crime solving game. While Sony was remaining tight lipped about the PS3 hardware numbers, they rightly made a big deal about the performance of Infamous 2, which although third, is still the highest single-platform performer for June. It certainly did better than its predecessor, released in May 2009, and ranked only 5th, even though the chart back then was split based on platform specific releases, not like this month’s chart, which combines all platform sales for the same title as one listing. And releasing an exclusive earlier in the month, as opposed to in the last few days, does help it to climb the ranks. The other notable new entries for this month include the 3DS version of Zelda: Ocarina of Time, and Disney’s Cars 2. Here’s the full software sales chart for June:

1. L.A Noire (Take 2, Xbox 360, PS3)
2. Duke Nukem Forever (Take 2, Xbox 360, PS3, PC)
3. Infamous 2 (Sony, PS3)
4. Lego Pirates of the Caribbean (Disney, Wii, Xbox 360, NDS, PS3, 3DS, PSP, PC)
5. Legend of Zelda: Ocarina of Time 3D (Nintendo, 3DS)
6. Call of Duty: Black Ops (Activision Blizzard, Xbox 360, PS3, Wii, NDS,PC)
7. NBA 2K11 (Take 2, Xbox 360, PS3, Wii, PS2, PSP, PC)
8. Mortal Kombat 2011 (Warner Bros. Interactive, PS3, Xbox 360)
9. Cars 2 (Disney, NDS, Wii, Xbox 360, PS3, PC)
10. Just Dance 2 (Ubisoft, Wii)

Time to make the usual prediction. As mentioned earlier, I think the Xbox 360 will experience its first year-on-year decline in ages, but still comfortably stay at the top of the home based console hardware sales charts, leaving the Wii and PS3 to fight it out for second and third place, and I think the Wii might be better positioned to win for some reason. It’s NCAA Football season again, so it will be the top seller, but otherwise, not a huge month for games again.

See you next month.

With plenty of news to go through, let’s get started.

In Copyright news, opposition to the controversial PROTECT IP act is gaining momentum, as this week, more than 100 law professors from around the United States have signed an open letter urging Congress to reconsider the new copyright legislation.

So we’ve had Internet pioneer, leaders in the field of technology, and now also law experts, all coming out attacking PROTECT IP. The law professors repeated the same warnings about messing with the Internet’s naming system, but more importantly, they argued that, from a freedom of speech point of view. But it won’t be the first time Congress has ignored expert advice in favour of lobbyist suggestions, and so, I’m not too hopeful that PROTECT IP will be defeated.

Fair use creates jobs, while tougher copyright may destroy them

And the politicians will not find it a difficult to support the RIAA and MPAA, because, as you know, it’s all about the jobs. The RIAA and MPAA have been arguing that tougher copyright protection means more jobs, and a politician in the current climate can’t afford to be seen as being anti-jobs, even if it is at the expense of being anti-free speech. But a new report by the Computer and Communications Industry Association (CCIA) shows that tougher copyright laws may actually have a negative effect on job creation, as it turns out, the US economy these days are very much driven by fair use related activities. Even I didn’t realise that fair use related industries accounted for 17% of the entire United States’ GDP, some $4.5 trillion in value added contributions. That’s much greater than the film and music business combined, and it makes sense when you see companies like Google, Facebook, Mozilla all embracing open source and taking advantage of fair use in some way.

PROTECT IP, in many ways, is just a protectionist measure in favour of the film and music business, and such measures always hurt other industries, and in this case, it’s the huge tech/Internet industry. But because one industry is more active in lobbying than the others, common sense does not always prevail in Washington. And just because the film and music business receives more protection, it doesn’t mean that they actually benefit financially as well, because tougher copyright laws does not equal more sales (and could even equal less).

If the US wants to see a real world example of tougher copyright laws, and the effect it has on revenue, they can simple look towards France, and see how their “Hadopi” three-strikes law (named after the agency, Hadopi, that is in charge of administering the program)  is working out. A new report shows the extraordinary level of monitoring that occurs, some 18 million incidents of piracy were recorded in just nine months. But out of the 18 million, only 470,000 users were sent “first-strike” emails, warning them of alleged copyright infringement being conducted via their Internet accounts. And then, in what seems to be strongest indication of the effectiveness of three-strikes, only 20,000 “second-strike” emails were sent out, suggesting that 450,000 people took the first warning the right way and “stopped” pirating. And at the end of it all, only 10 people were being considered for further action after reaching their third strike – so that’s millions spent to catch 10 people.

But despite what appears to be a 95% reduction in piracy (going from 470,000 first time offenders to only 20,000 second time offenders), there’s almost no information on the actual economic benefits of the reduction in piracy, if the reduction even exists. I can only assume that there has been no positive effect on music and movie sales in France as a result of three-strikes, because otherwise, the RIAA/MPAA would be using it as evidence that every country in the world should adopt graduated response. And just because people stopped being detected, it doesn’t mean they’ve stopped pirating – direct downloads have never been monitored by Hadopi, and it’s impossible for them to monitor BitTorrent usage if it’s done via a VPN either.

It makes perfect sense to me though, that if someone who couldn’t afford to buy a movie or a piece of music still remains in the same situation after tougher copyright laws are introduced, and as long as this is true, there can be no increase in revenue. People will stop enjoying content illegally, and if they can’t afford the legal version, they will simply stop enjoying the content entirely. And this reduces the word of mouth effect, and also prevents “upgraders”, those that download illegally and then purchase later because they really liked the content. And so, tougher copyright laws may actually lead to revenue loss. The truth of the matter is that movie home entertainment revenue is much higher than what it was before the Internet become popular, and so is gaming. And that while the music industry isn’t doing as well, increased competition from other sectors (such as movies and gaming), and the increasing popularity of purchasing music singles over albums, are all more accountable for the decline in revenue than just piracy. The music industry needs to stop blaming piracy on all of its problems, and the movie industry needs to stop pretending there is a problem (what with box office receipts at an all time high, and home entertainment revenue up significantly compared to 15 years ago).

This graph shows that music industry revenue has been dominated by album sales ...	... and as you can see, albums were popular on CD but has been declining ...
... and this graph shows digital music is all about singles, which may explain the industry's revenue loss

The truth is that the way people consume content has changed drastically, and yes, a lot of that is due to the Internet. But with change, comes opportunity, and if the film and music industry aren’t interested in exploring the new opportunities, others will, and in this case, it has been the technology companies, like Apple and Netflix, that has benefited the most. And the latest to join their ranks may be Spotify, which has just been launched in the United States, albeit in a limited invitation only phase. Spotify attempts to address one of the fundamental shifts in media consumption, the lessening need to “own” music (well, people never owned music anyway, there merely licensed a recording of it), and the increasing need to consume (which makes owning far too expensive and time consuming to manage). So instead, people stream all the music they want in an on-demand fashion, for free if they’re willing to put up with ads. It’s completely legal, so no moral guilty as compared to piracy, plus the music industry can receive financial compensation. And those that do want to “own”, or at least rent, can buy one of Spotify’s paid for plans, with more money going towards the music industry. With Spotify, there’s almost no reason at all for pirating music.

Spotify is launching in the US, and there are now even fewer reasons for people to pirate music

And in a similar vein, UltraViolet for movies also attempt to change the way content is sold to more closely follow the consumer’s needs, an ambitious project that has the backing of more than 70 companies from a range of industries, with support, albeit reluctantly at certain aspects of it, from the movie industry. This week, UltraViolet licensing beings officially, and beta testing is also under way for an official launch later this year. If it works, it will finally allow movie lovers to buy the movie (or license it), as opposed to just buying the media that the movies comes on. It’s Digital Copy, but done right, with industry wide support, and done via the Internet.

And so, there is hope, that the music and film industry can embrace change and come out the other side stronger than before. Let’s just hope they don’t erode all of our civil rights, in a vain attempt to use legislation to stop copyright infringement, before then.

And finally, before we move on to other topics, the MPAA’s lawsuit against Hotfile has some new developments this week, as the judge in case threw out the MPAA’s claim of direct copyright infringement, simply on the grounds that Hotfile themselves did not upload any of the content that is considered to be infringing on the MPAA’s copyrights. However, the judge did feel Hotfile can be found guilty of secondary copyright infringement, of inducement to infringement by paying affiliates money for uploading popular content. I don’t think it will end well for Hotfile unfortunately, as the MPAA has chosen their target wisely, by choosing a file sharing host that actively promotes popular uploads with payment, and thus, encourage users  to upload pirated content.

In HD/3D news, a new report suggests that Blu-ray will beat DVD by 2014 to become the most popular disc format around.

But even by then, Blu-ray’s gain in revenue would not have offset DVD’s loss, and so it will be digital media that saves the day. The report, from London-based Futuresource, says that at that time, physical media will still account for more than half of the industry’s revenue, but digital media won’t be too far behind, accounting for 46% of the market.

While Blu-ray only accounts for 13% of the sell-through market last year, it’s not too hard to believe Blu-ray will get close to 50% by 2014, especially if you look at recent data as listed in our weekly Blu-ray/DVD sales analysis. Blu-ray revenue, in the US at least, appears to be already above the 20% mark on average, and for some recent releases like ‘Sucker Punch’ have managed to has a first week Blu-ray market share way above this average (61.42% to be precise).

Over 3.5 million Blu-ray 3D discs have been sold so far, but half of them were given away

There was also the news that 3D Blu-ray, despite the predictions of doom, has already sold some 3.5 million discs. Of course, half of these discs were given away with hardware, but with Avatar still not available for general sale on Blu-ray 3D, the number is still impressive. The main reason for the good result, and the good result of Blu-ray in general, is pricing. Blu-ray combos are now the best value packaging around usually, and with Blu-ray 3D “mega” combos becoming more popular (that is, the Blu-ray 3D version plus the Blu-ray 2D version, plus the DVD and Digital Copy versions), 3D is benefiting as a result.

What has decrease in value this week though is Netflix subscriptions, with price rises of up to 60% being announced. Netflix says the reason for the increase is due to their renewed focus on DVDs, by separating DVD and streaming into two separate, and cheaper plans (but at the same time, increasing the price of the combined plan). I suspect this price rise has to do with Netflix’s need to renegotiate digital rights for movies, with them having just agreed a new deal with Universal, and the need for a new deal with Sony. The rise in popularity of Netflix is obviously making studios feel they’ve not got the best deal they can, and they will want to squeeze as much out of Netflix as possible.

And before we move onto gaming, the news this week that new PS3s won’t be able to output Blu-ray in HD over component shouldn’t come as a surprise for those that read my news article on the Blu-ray analog sunset. Blu-ray’s copy protections system, AACS, mandated the removal of HD component support for all new players manufactured after January 1st 2011, and so the new PS3 model is just following the licensing agreement. The misinformation over HD being disabled even for games and streaming, is just that, misinformation.

And in gaming, there’s actually not much, but I wanted to address the NPD issue again. The NPD report for June has just been released, and as been the case recently, it’s light on actual details, especially for hardware sales figures. But Microsoft and Nintendo have decided to released hardware sales figures for their consoles, once again leaving Sony as the holdout.

I’m hoping a leak will reveal the Sony PS3 numbers in the next few days, but even without the leak we can deduce that the PS3 probably didn’t do very well in June, despite Infamous 2 selling extremely well. First of all, the Xbox 360 was the most popular console with 507,000 units sold, while Nintendo revealed the sale of 273,000 Wiis. Microsoft’s statement mentioned their 507,000 was nearly twice as much as other home consoles, confirming the Wii number at least and pointing to the fact that the Wii was probably the second best selling console. And with Sony’s statement only pointing to the success of Infamous 2, with no acknowledgement of year-on-year growth for the PS3 (something they’ve been vocal about recently). In fact, Microsoft’s statement actually says the Xbox 360 is the only console to have year-on-year growth in June.

So the PS3 sold less than in June 2010 (304,800 units), and so the only issue is whether the PS3 outsold the Wii or not. Microsoft’s statement mentioned that the Xbox 360 held a “48% share of the overall current-generation console market share”, although it was unclear whether this referred to June or the whole of 2011 (it’s not lifetime sales, that’s for sure). Assuming it is for June, and for home based consoles only, then a little bit of maths puts the PS3 at 276,250 units (if 507,000 was 48%, extrapolate to 100%, then minus the known 360 and Wii numbers, to get the PS3 number).

But I hate guessing, so I’ll wait a few more days to see if there are any leaks to confirm my theory, but if not, then I’ll give Sony the benefit of the doubt for not mentioned they outsold the Wii, and use the estimated 276,000 figure.

That’s all for this news filled week. I suspect the next week will be very barren indeed news wise. See you next week.

The figures for US sales in May 2011 are below, ranked in order of number of sales (May 2010 figures also shown, including percentage change):

• Xbox 360: 270,000 (Total: 27.3 million; May 2010: 194,600 – up 39%)
• Wii: 236,000  (Total: 35.7 million; May 2010: 334,900 – down 30%)
• PS3: 175,000 (Total: 16.9 million; May 2010: 154,500 – up 13%)

NPD May 2011 Game Console US Sales Figures

NPD Game Console Total US Sales Figures (as of May 2011)

My prediction from last month was:

I don’t really want to make a prediction next month, because if I’m right, and that the PS3 number falls due to the PSN outage, then Sony won’t release the figures, and we don’t have an NPD. Regardless, I think the Xbox 360 would still be the top selling console, so it’s just a matter of how much the PSN outage hurts the PS3, and how much the Wii price cut helps the Wii. The biggest game new releases for May are L.A. Noire, Brink and LEGO Pirates of the Caribbean.

I should have stuck to my guns and not made any predictions, because it turns out that PS3 sales held and even rose compared to last month, and also compared to a year ago, and so Sony had no qualms about releasing the figures. It was Nintendo, strangely, that was the holdout until good old reliable Michael Pachter came to the rescue again and released the Wii numbers in an investor report. The Wii price cut did help the Wii to record a sales rise compared to April, thanks to the price drop. Ironically, it was the Xbox 360 that was the only home based console to record a drop in sales compared to April, but it was also the console that recorded by far the highest year-on-year growth – go figure! As for games, I did make the right prediction here, and even made it in the right order in terms of the top 3 sellers for May.

Let’s start with the PS3 numbers, which was the most anticipated set. The PS3, while still coming last in terms of sales, did record a year-on-year growth of 13%, as well as a minor increase in sales compared to April. This seems to suggest the PSN outage did not affect sales all that much. Sony also stated that this was the 4th month in a row that PS3 sales saw double digit growth, which is impressive considering the shenanigans of the last two month with the PSN. Apart from touting exclusives, Sony spent much of the time showing off their new portable, PlayStation Vita, as well as a PS3 3D TV that allows two player game play without a split screen, turning the 3D technology and glasses for 2D use.

Xbox 360 sales did fall compared to April, but compared to May 2010, hardware sales rose 39%, the highest out of all the consoles. The reason for the monthly fall may be due to April’s better than average result (which was 60% higher than April 2010, double the usual average). Certainly, looking at these numbers, the Xbox 360 looks the most healthy. For E3, Kinect was the focus, as it has been the catalyst behind the recent good results. Microsoft is promising all future first party titles will feature some Kinect features, which will be interesting. They also launched Kinect Labs, which is the Kinect app store. Kinect is keeping the Xbox 360 on top, and so it makes sense for Microsoft to concentrate on this area, especially since with the announcement of Wii U, we know that it is the sole console doing the “no controllers” thing.

That leaves the Wii, which could become the most sickly of all the consoles, despite outselling the PS3. The reason I say this is that given the trend of decline, around 30% compared to a year ago, by this time next year, it will be the worst selling home console. The trend has been pretty consistent, and it doesn’t look like it’s slowing at all. Which probably explains why Nintendo was the only company to unveiled a new home based console at E3, the Wii U. With no firm release date other than “sometime in 2012″, the Wii will have to suffer for a bit longer, but by the time that the PS3 does finally overtake the console the Wii U surely won’t be far away from release, which is probably what Nintendo is counting on. Certainly, it makes sense that Nintendo would be the first company out of the three to launch a new console, despite not being the first company to release their current generation consoles (Microsoft’s Xbox 360 was launched a year earlier). The Wii hardware is the oldest out of the three consoles, and it needed a refresh most urgently. The Wii U will feature hardware that’s 50% more powerful than the PS3, which sounds really impressive until you realise that the PS3 hardware is about 6 years old already (developed in 2005, launched in 2006), so 50% may not even be enough, because the next Microsoft or Sony console could again leave the Wii trailing behind in the graphics stakes. But graphics are not that important any more, considering the 6 year old PS3 still looks fantastic even on a 1080p screen. As for the Wii U’s innovative control system, with the controller that also doubles as a second screen, it certainly is different. It could be the difference that makes it a hit, or it could be just too complicated for the casual gaming market that’s used to the Wii’s simplicity. With that said, what Nintendo is promising could already be possible on the PS3 and Xbox 360 if you listen closely to recent announcement. Back in February, Microsoft announced that future Windows Phones (and tablets, I’m guessing), would come with Kinect interactivity, and with Sony launching Vita, it could also link to the PS3 in the same way the Wii U controller links to on screen action. Sure, it wouldn’t be a nice and polished package as the Wii U, but if either company can demo something similar on existing hardware before the Wii U launches, then that will steal a lot of Nintendo’s thunder. For me though, the Wii U is as much about innovation, as it is about getting back in favor with the hardcore gaming crowd.

Onto games. As predicted, the month’s top 3 sellers were L.A. Noire, Brink and Lego Pirates of the Caribbean, in this order. Nothing else on the list was of any surprise, so it’s probably not worth the trouble to discuss game sales any further, other than to add that combined, games sales are down 19% compared to last year, and that only the Xbox 360 recorded an increase in software unit sales (but that increase was only 1%, so it’s hardly a great result). Fewer games were released in May though, and genre specific releases that were not as good as what was present last year. The steady decline in physical disc sales may be attributed to digital sales (especially on the PC, which is included in the NPD figures), and probably also due to increased competition from smartphone/tablet gaming – something that Nintendo is hoping to address via Wii U (Sony via Android gaming phones, and Microsoft via Windows Phone Xbox 360 connectivity). Here’s the full software sales chart for May:

1. L.A Noire (Take 2, Xbox 360, PS3)
2. Brink (Bethesda, Xbox 360, PS3, PC)
3. Lego Pirates of the Caribbean (Disney, Wii, Xbox 360, NDS, PS3, 3DS, PSP, PC)
4. Portal 2 (Electronic Arts, Xbox 360, PS3, PC)
5. Mortal Kombat 2011 (Warner Bros. Interactive, PS3, Xbox 360)
6. Call of Duty: Black Ops (Activision Blizzard, Xbox 360, PS3, Wii, NDS,PC)
7. Zumba Fitness: Join the Party (Majesco, Wii, Xbox 360, PS3)
8. NBA 2K11 (Take 2, Xbox 360, PS3, Wii, PS2, PSP, PC)
9. Just Dance 2 (Ubisoft, Wii)
10. Lego Star Wars III: The Clone Wars (LucasArts, Wii, NDS, Xbox 360, PS3, 3DS, PSP, PC)

Prediction time? No big changes, so the same hardware ordering as this month. The new top selling games will be Infamous 2 and Duke Nukem Forever (on a side note, ‘Forever’ really is such an apt name for the game considering the development time), but the overall top sellers will be some of the same titles as in May.

See you next month.

The figures for US sales in April 2011 are below, ranked in order of number of sales (April 2010 figures also shown, including percentage change):

• Xbox 360: 297,000 (Total: 27 million; April 2010: 185,400 – up 60%)
• PS3: 204,300 (Total: 16.7 million; April 2010: 180,800 – up 13%)
• Wii: 172,000  (Total: 35.4 million; April 2010: 277,200 – down 38%)

NPD April 2011 Game Console US Sales Figures

NPD Game Console Total US Sales Figures (as of April 2011)

My prediction from last month was:

I didn’t make a prediction because I didn’t do a NPD analysis last month because of those ******* at Sony (possibly)

Note that some of the figures above are extrapolated, and somewhat based on guestimates. For example, I gave Sony the benefit of the doubt and gave the PS3 350,000 units sold for last month, so I could have an estimate for the total sales figures graph. And this month, Sony only said that the PS3 grew by “nearly” 13% compared to April 2010, and so I again gave them the benefit of the doubt and made the growth exactly 13%. But these figures have always been rounded up and down, and so they’re not that accurate, but accurate enough in terms of providing a general feel of what’s going on, allowing “analysts” like myself to extrapolate the data and make things up, basically.

So the Xbox 360 was the winner again, just like last month (the PS3 numbers weren’t present, but the Xbox 360 and Wii numbers were present, and presented in the gaming section of the April 24 edition of the Weekly News Roundup). In fact, Xbox 360 sales are 60% up compared to the same month last year, which is quite a result. This makes for the best month-to-month-a-year-ago result since last November, when the Xbox 360 recorded 67% growth. It’s hard to explain where the result comes from, but (and this is where the “make things up” thing comes in), with software sales higher than in April 2010 thanks to some a-list releases, and most of them, while being multi-platform, sold better on the Xbox 360 than any other console, and this probably helped hardware sales as well. Microsoft also said that Kinect sales were promising, with Michael Jackson: The Experience the pick of the Kinect new releases for the month.

And as mentioned earlier, the PS3 numbers were good enough for Sony to release figures for this month. This time last year, the Xbox 360 and PS3 were neck and neck (with the Wii way ahead in the lead … more on that later), but the Xbox 360 managed to outsell the PS3 comfortably this month, despite the PS3’s “near” 13% growth figure. Sony would point to this figure showing that the PSN outage for the last ten days of April did not really have a profound effect on sales, but we’ll only know the full scale of the damage in May’s NPD (no doubt if the numbers don’t go well, Sony will withhold the figures again, so we may never find out), when it is revealed that millions of PSN account details and some credit card numbers were leaked. Various sources are already posting information which shows increasing number of PS3 to Xbox 360 console trade-ins at retailers, an increasing number of gamers switching pre-orders from PS3 versions to Xbox 360 versions (for those that presumably owns both consoles), and Sony’s share of game sales dropping from 37% from before the PSN outage, to only 21% with the most recent data.

The Wii was the worst performer out of the home based consoles this month, with sales being 38% down compared to the same period last year, a somewhat consistent decline. Which is probably why the Wii has just received a price cut, and that Nintendo plans to announced the Wii 2 at E3 in less than a month’s time. Nintendo’s other consoles, including the new 3Ds, aren’t doing much better though, with the original DS once again outselling the more expensive 3Ds.

For games, Mortal Kombat was the best seller, followed by Portal 2. Mortal Kombat sold 900,000 copies on the two platforms, the Xbox 360 and PS3, on which it was released, and the Xbox 360 version most likely led the PS3 version in sales (as otherwise Sony would have mentioned that the top selling game of the month did best on their platform). Same with Portal as well, according to GfK-ChartTrack, despite the PS3 version having several exclusives, including a free PC version of the game, plus cross-platform gaming (according to released figures, the Xbox 360 version outsold the PS3 version by about a 1.5-to-1 margin). Michael Jackson The Experience also made the top 10, despite only the PS3 Move and Xbox 360 Kinect SKUs of the game being new in April (the other SKUs were released ages ago). Another game that didn’t make the top 10, but would have if a bundled version had counted as software, as opposed to accessories, sales was SOCOM 4. The “Full Deployment” bundle consisted of a Move controller and the Sharpshooter accessory, and had this bundle been included in the software numbers, SOCOM 4 would have made the top 10. As it is, the bundle was the highest ranking new accessory for the month. Here’s the full software sales chart for April:

1. Mortal Kombat 2011 (Warner Bros. Interactive, Xbox 360, PS3)
2. Portal 2 (Electronic Arts, Xbox 360, PS3, PC)
3. Lego Star Wars III: The Clone Wars (LucasArts, Xbox 360, PS3, Wii, NDS, 3DS, PC)
4. Call of Duty: Black Ops (Activision Blizzard, Xbox 360, PS3, Wii, NDS,PC)
5. Tiger Woods PGA Tour 12: The Masters (Electronic Arts, Xbox 360, PS3, Wii)
6. Crysis 2 (Electronic Arts, Xbox 360, PS3, PC)
7. Just Dance 2 (Ubisoft, Wii)
8. Michael Jackson The Experience (Ubisoft, Xbox 360, PS3, Wii, NDS, PSP)
9. Pokemon White Version (Nintendo, NDS)
10. NBA 2K11 (Warner Bros. Interactive, Xbox 360, PS3)

I don’t really want to make a prediction next month, because if I’m right, and that the PS3 number falls due to the PSN outage, then Sony won’t release the figures, and we don’t have an NPD. Regardless, I think the Xbox 360 would still be the top selling console, so it’s just a matter of how much the PSN outage hurts the PS3, and how much the Wii price cut helps the Wii. The biggest game new releases for May are L.A. Noire, Brink and LEGO Pirates of the Caribbean.

See you next month, hopefully.