The figures for US sales in October 2009 are below, ranked in order of number of sales (October 2008 figures also shown, including percentage change):

• Wii: 506,900 (Total: 22.1 million; October 2008: 803,000 – down 37%)
• DS: 457,600 (Total: 34.4 million; October 2008: 491,000 – down 7%)
• PS3: 320,600 (Total: 9.1 million; October 2008: 190,000 – up 69%)
• Xbox 360: 249,700 (Total: 16.5 million; October 2008: 371,000 – down 33%)
• PSP: 174,600 (Total: 15.9 million; October 2008: 193,000 – down 10%)
• PS2: 117,800 (Total: 44.7 million; October 2008: 136,000 – down 13%)

NPD October 2009 Game Console US Sales Figures

NPD Game Console Total US Sales Figures (as of October 2009)

My prediction from last month was:

It’s time to make a prediction of October 2009’s results. For my money, I’ll say that the order of the hardware sales will remain the same, although the Wii numbers will be closer to the PS3 numbers. The PSP Go debuts, but based on an Australian report about the poor sales figures (a couple of hundred sales per week in an entire country, is not the best), the impact of the PSP Go may be muted. Sony will continue to have good month, but this time backed up in software sales as well with Uncharted 2. It might not sell enough to top the number one title, which might be Wii Sports Resort. Wii Fit Plus might take a place in the top half of the charts as well. I expect FIFA 10 to show up in one of more flavors in the top 10. Borderlands might make a showing too.

Some right, some wrong. The biggest surprise, if you can call it that, was that the Wii price cut managed to do enough to unseat the PS3 from the top spot. Part of this was also due to the price cut, Slim induced sales bump not lasting as long as one would expect. This is true of the Xbox 360 price cut as well, and if November wasn’t such a bumper month for sales, it might also be true for the Wii as well next month. My predictions about PSP Go sales being relatively subdued was also correct, with combined PSP sales of both the old and new models actually dropping compared to last month (but dropping less than it would have been had the PSP Go not been released). For my software predictions, I was right about Uncharted 2 doing well for Sony, but wrong about it not taking the number one spot. It did, and quite comfortably. Wii Sports Resort failed to keep its sales up, and was beaten in the end by Wii Fit Plus. FIFA 10 did show up, albeit in last place, but Borderlands did well on the Xbox 360 at least.

So let’s take a look at the PS3 numbers first. After a great month in which it took top spot amongst the home consoles for the first time since I’ve started analyzing the figures, it quickly felled back down again, but at least it managed to beat the Xbox 360. We’ll still need a couple of months to see if the price cut has any long term effects, but one thing is for certain, that last month’s bump for the PS3 had parts of it which were very temporary in nature. I would expect a price cut to be more long term, and the introduction of a new model to be more short term (due to the number of people who upgrade, which only occurs once), and so one can conclude that what made the PS3 the number one selling home based console in September was down to a fairly even combination of both events (price cut and new model), but that the temporary has started wearing off for October. Certainly those that expected the PS3 to be selling over the Wii from last month onwards were a bit too optimistic in their predictions, perhaps. In any case, Sony can still be extremely happy with the results, as the PS3 recorded what was the only year-on-year sales increase of all the consoles (more on that later).

The Wii’s sales bump is welcome news for Nintendo in what has been a fairly miserable year, especially in the last quarter. The price cut, while occurring in the last month, seems to have had the full effect in October as the Wii was the only console to record growth compared to September. But the overall picture is still not a happy one for Nintendo, as the year-on-year sale of the Wii saw a huge 37% drop, the largest of any console. Part of this was due to how incredibly the Wii was selling this time last year, way above any expectations. The other part is the slow decline in Wii sales that has occurred over 2009. At least the DS is still doing relatively well, keeping a firm grip on the number one spot and only recording a small year-on-year drop.

The Xbox 360 figures are again not looking great for Microsoft. A huge year-on-year drop breaks the trend for 2009, in which the Xbox 360 was pretty much the only console to record year-on-year growth (or negligible losses in a couple of months). This suggest the PS3 price cut has really hurt the Xbox 360 where it counts, and the fortunes have been reversed for the two consoles post the PS3 price cut, as the PS3 was the one recording large year-on-year sales drops up until the price cut. With Project Natal not coming until this time next year, later than PS3’s motion controller, which might be able to steal the Natal thunder if it’s properly integrated with the PS3 Eye and with useful software, time is running out for Microsoft to do something. To be fair, it was always a difficult struggle for the Xbox 360 to beat the PS3, and it has outperformed everyone’s expectations up until this point. Price cuts had allowed the Xbox 360 to outperform the PS3, but price cuts are not something that can go on forever, and given similar prices, the PS3 with its Blu-ray functionality and more advanced design will always win. So it may not be a case of the Xbox 360 losing to the PS3, but rather, both consoles finding their rightful place now that the PS3 ridiculous pricing has been removed as a factor. For Microsoft, Natal is a step in the right direction, but the November 2010 release date may just be too late to change things. The only thing that Microsoft has in its arsenal is the larger install base of the Xbox 360 over the PS3 in the US, which should at least mean that it will take some time before the PS3 finds parity, and will still allow them to sell software in good numbers until then. And the better multiplayer platform in Xbox Live over the PlayStation Network, and add to that the larger install base, does still give the Xbox 360 some momentum (the “if my friends are already on the 360, I have to be on it too” principle). Making Xbox Live Gold free is probably the only other weapon left for Microsoft to use.

Looking at sales as a whole, October performed badly compared to September and certainly compared to the same time last year. There might be a recession related thing going on at the moment, or just the lack of really big titles, but the stimulus given by the price drops, or new models being released, seems to be the only things keeping the figures from sliding further down. Things will be on the up in November for sure, but the numbers will be extremely interesting to see if there is a year-on-year growth or decline, and whether how well the PS3 numbers do compared to the Wii (and to a lesser extent, the Xbox 360), both to see if temporary factors were responsible for the Wii’s sales increase this month, and again to confirm the longevity of the PS3 price cut boost.

Moving on to software, things are slightly better, although a year-on-year decline was still the order of the day. The top title was a PS3 title for only the second time since I’ve started keeping track (the previous one was Metal Gear Solid 4 in June 2008). Uncharted 2 was the top selling title in question, and being an exclusive, that’s exactly where it should be. But compared to last month’s number one, which was also a follow-up game in a series and also a platform exclusive (Halo 3: ODST), the sales are still somewhat disappointing (Halo 3: ODST outsold Uncharted 2 by a ratio of nearly 3 to 1). Getting more out of platform exclusives, especially high profile ones such as the Uncharted series, whether that’s through more extensive marketing or other tactics, is something Sony can work on to better its software sales. There was only one other PS3 title in the top 10, NBA 2K10, a multi-platform release. There were only two Wii titles in the top 10, Wii Fit Plus as predicted and Wii Sports Resort, which saw sales drop compared to last month. The rest, apart from one DS title, was all Microsoft. 5 titles in the top 10, and even though the highest placed was only third, it still managed to grab 44.3% of total sales, the third best set of results in 2009. Wii games accounted 25.1% of the top 10, and the PS3 was third once more with 25% of sales.

Here’s the complete list of the top 10 software sales:

1. Uncharted 2: Among Thieves (PS3, Sony) – 537,000
2. Wii Fit Plus (Wii, Nintendo) – 441,000
3. Borderlands (Xbox 360, Take-Two) – 418,000
4. Wii Sports Resort (Wii, Nintendo) – 314,000
5. NBA 2K10 (Xbox 360, 2K Sports) – 311,000
6. Halo 3: ODST (Xbox 360, Microsoft) – 271,000
7. NBA 2K10 (PS3, 2K Sports) – 213,000
8. Forza Motorsport 3 (Xbox 360, Microsoft) – 175,000
9. Kingdom Hearts 358/2 Days (DS, Square Enix) – 169,000
10. FIFA 10 (Xbox 360, EA Sports) – 156,000

Prediction time. This is a hard one. Sales will go up considerably compared to October, that’s for sure. The DS will be top, the number two spot will be closely fought between the PS3 and Wii, although I’m leaning towards the Wii winning that battle right now. The Xbox 360 is 4th, followed by the other two PlayStation consoles. Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 2 will be the number one selling game, and the controversial game will be a record seller if the hype is anything to go by. The Xbox 360 version of this multi-platform game should be the one occupying the top spot. Other titles that will do well for the Xbox 360 include Assassin’s Creed II and the console platform exclusive Left 4 Dead 2. For the Wii, a new Super Mario Bros game will always be a hit, and it could give CoD: MW2 some competition (although mainly for the PS3 version, one suspect). Dragon Age: Origins, from the same people that gave us Mass Effect, could make the top 10 as well, since I’ve been hearing a lot about this game recently.

See you next month.

The figures for US sales in September 2009 are below, ranked in order of number of sales (September 2008 figures also shown, including percentage change):

NPD September 2009 Game Console US Sales Figures

NPD Game Console Total US Sales Figures (as of September 2009)

My prediction from last month was:

So for a concrete prediction, I would say the PS3 to outsell the Xbox 360 and the Wii, and the number three being contested between the Xbox 360 and the Wii (too close to call, at this point). The PSP Go is coming in October, so we won’t see the numbers until November. Halo 3: ODST should top the charts next month, followed by Wii Sports Resort. The Beatles game should sell well too, although the Wii SKU may outsell the PS3/Xbox 360 ones.  At least one SKU of Batman: AA should still chart, although whether it’s the Xbox 360 or the PS3 version is too close to call at the moment as well (Xbox 360 users will be fully occupied by Halo 3: ODST to think about buying other games, I feel).

Mostly right, a couple of minor mistakes. As predicted and expected, the PS3 managed to beat the Wii to second place, but it wasn’t enough to unseat the DS as the number one selling game console. I predicted that the Wii and Xbox 360 would be neck and neck, which wasn’t the case, but when I made the prediction, Nintendo had not yet announced the Wii price cut which helped it to at least hold on to third place. The software predictions are mostly correct, even down to the uncertainty as to which platform for Batman: AA was going to win (it was the PS3, beating the Xbox 360 version that finished just outside of the top 10). The Wii version of The Beatles: Rock Band did not outsell the Xbox 360 version though.

So the big news of course are the PS3 numbers, which are simply put, head and shoulders, and a couple of body length, above last month pre-price cut/Slim numbers. There is a seasonal bump from August to September – one can work out just how much by looking at the PSP/PS2 numbers, which weren’t affected by new models or price cuts – this seasonal bump turns out to be around 35%.  Now taking this into account, the PS3 numbers are still about a 100% improvement compared to last month, and this is the amount that the Slim and price cut contributed. Now, how much of it was Slim based, and how much of it was price cut based, is impossible to tell with the numbers I have. The PS3 numbers are also a 112% improvement upon last year’s numbers, which is quite amazing. However, the jump in sales may only be a temporary spike, and it will be useful  to see next month’s numbers before coming to any conclusions. There won’t be a sales drop next month compared to this one, as the holiday season heats up and increases sale naturally, but the question would be how close Wii and Xbox 360 sales are to the PS3, whether the PS3 can hold on to second place or even get first. What is clear though is that the combination of a price cut and a new PS3 model has revived the flagging fortunes of the PS3, although whether this kicks of a period where the PS3 starts to dominate, or whether the Wii and Xbox’s market saturation will prevent this dominance, is a question that can only be answered in a few month’s time.

The biggest loser, and why total hardware sales are still down compared to the same time last year (despite the positive PS3 numbers), is the Wii. Another month in which the Wii managed to sell less than the same time last year, this time by 33%, is just not good enough for Nintendo. The price cut came a bit late to make a huge difference, so Nintendo will hope that its full effects will be felt next month. But what has driven Wii sales, the novelty factor, is starting to wear off. And it will only get worse as Sony and Microsoft debut their own motion systems, especially Microsoft’s Natal which seems a lot more “next-gen” than either the Wii or the PS3 motion controller.

Microsoft, now the least popular of the home consoles, may seem like the biggest loser, but if you look closely at this month’s numbers, they still have something to be happy with. While I don’t think the Xbox 360 Elite is priced competitively enough to combat the PS3, and I don’t think the Arcade can battle with the Wii, it’s clear that by having these two price points, Microsoft want to take on both Sony and Nintendo. It’s not working too well. What would have made more sense was to drop the Pro bundle to Arcade prices, get rid of the HDD-less Arcade model, and price the Elite at much less than the PS3 Slim. But you do get the feeling that any price cut is only a temporary measure until Microsoft unveil Natal, which should push it ahead of the PS3 and the Wii in terms of the novelty factor at least. But as I mentioned above, the other numbers, which is basically the software numbers, are quite encouraging actually, obviously helped by the platform exclusive Halo 3: ODST. In fact, 32% of the total video gaming revenue belonged to Microsoft products (hardware, software and accessories) this month, the single most contribution of any console. For the top 10 software, Microsoft dominated with 64.7% of the revenue, the most dominant performance since I started collecting data, even beating the month when Wii Fit was released in which Nintendo dominated with 61% of the top 10. So it’s not all bad news, and the lead they’ve built up over the PS3 over the last few years should allow them to keep their lead for at least another couple of years, and that’s assuming the PS3 performs as well as this month from now on.

So let’s move onto the software stats. My prediction of Halo 3: ODST and Wii Sports Resort occupying the number 1 and 2 spots respectively was a pretty easy one to make, and it was correct. Halo 3: ODST’s numbers were amazing, making it the 6th best selling SKU launch of all time, very good for a title that was only available on one platform, and an add-on to boot. There was room for 4 more Xbox 360 titles in the top 10. The only slight point of concern was that the PS3 version of Batman: AA outsold the Xbox 360 version, something that rarely happens for multi-platform releases, but the PS3 version did have exclusive content, and as I said last month, the Xbox 360 gamers might have been too busy with ODST to think about Batman: AA. There were only two Wii games in the top 10, gone are the days when Wii Play, Wii Fit and Mario Kart would all make regular appearances. These games have had a good run, but if Wii software sales are to improve, then the platform needs a string of must-have third-party games. Forget about a string, there hasn’t been even a couple of third-party Wii games that can be called “must-have”, so that’s a worrying point for Nintendo. For the PS3, the hardware bump did not translate over to software, with only two titles in the top 10. Madden NFL 10 on the PS3 did well to bridge the gap between it and the Xbox 360 version, but even the Wii version of the Beatles Rock Band game outsold the PS3 version, and so it did not place in the top 10. And as mentioned before, Batman: AA was the other PS3 entry in the top 10, beating the Xbox 360 version which finished 11th (sales figures unknown, but probably just over 200,000, and maybe about 10,000 copies short of the PS3 version). Microsoft’s dominance meant a 64.7% share of the top 10, with the Wii  getting 16.8% (plus 6.7% for the single DS game in the list), and the PS3 on 11.8%.

Here’s the complete list of the top 10 software sales:

1. Halo 3: ODST (Xbox 360, Microsoft) – 1,520,000
2. Wii Sports Resort (Wii, Nintendo) – 442,900
3. Madden NFL 10 (Xbox 360, EA) – 289,600
4. Mario & Luigi: Bowser’s Inside Story (DS, Nintendo) – 258,100
5. The Beatles: Rock Band (Xbox 360, EA) – 254,000
6. Madden NFL 10 (PS3, EA) – 246,500
7. Marvel: Ultimate Alliance 2 (Xbox 360, Activision) – 236,000
8. Batman: Arkham Asylum (PS3, Eidos) – 212,500
9. Guitar Hero 5 (Xbox 360, Activision) – 210,800
10. The Beatles: Rock Band (Wi, EA) – 208,600

It’s time to make a prediction of October 2009’s results. For my money, I’ll say that the order of the hardware sales will remain the same, although the Wii numbers will be closer to the PS3 numbers. The PSP Go debuts, but based on an Australian report about the poor sales figures (a couple of hundred sales per week in an entire country, is not the best), the impact of the PSP Go may be muted. Sony will continue to have good month, but this time backed up in software sales as well with Uncharted 2. It might not sell enough to top the number one title, which might be Wii Sports Resort. Wii Fit Plus might take a place in the top half of the charts as well. I expect FIFA 10 to show up in one of more flavors in the top 10. Borderlands might make a showing too.

See you next month.

The figures for US sales in August 2009 are below, ranked in order of number of sales (August 2008 figures also shown, including percentage change):

NPD August 2009 Game Console US Sales Figures

NPD Game Console Total US Sales Figures (as of August 2009)

My prediction from last month was:

So prediction time. By this time next month, we should have a good idea whether the PS3 Slim is fact or fiction (if I had to put money on it, I would say ‘fact’), as well as what price cuts there might be. The PS3 Slim, according to rumours, won’t be here until September anyway, so it won’t be before October (when I post the September NPD analysis) before we can see what effects it may have on sales. In the short term though, this could spell a sales drought for the PS3, unless Sony does some pre-emptive price drop for the older SKUs to get rid of stock. August is traditionally also a slow month, so I expect sales to drop further, or at best, stay the same with July levels. The same ordering as this month, most likely. Madden NFL 10 should dominate, along with Wii Sports Resort, and there might be a late month surge in Batman: Arkham Asylum sales.

Well, the PS3 Slim was in fact a ‘fact’, but I didn’t put any money on it, and I doubt I would have made much if I had given the odds at that time. The price cut was also a ‘fact’. While the PS3 Slim’s official release date was the 1st of September, many had already managed to secure one through regular retail channels, and so with the price cut on existing models as well, the August numbers do reflect the PS3 Slim/price cut effect, although obviously not the full effect which we will see this time next month for the September figures. The price cut on existing models took place around the middle of the month, and so the sales drought did not occur (although it did in certain places, like Japan). The Xbox 360 price drop came at the very end of the month, so it should not have affected the stats all that much. August is traditionally slow, but with so many announcements and changes happening, I was wrong about a general drop in sales, as August was better than July, if only slightly. And on the software front, I was pretty much on the mark, even predicting the order of the three titles that dominates this month’s charts. In any case, it was nice to see some ‘green’ in the sales figures above, for the comparison with 2008.

So the big news of the month was the PS3 Slim and the associated price cut on all models. It happened around the middle of the month, and while we will only see the full effects of the PS3 Slim in the September figures (due out this time next month), we can already see the effect of the price cut that everyone, myself included, has been calling for. While the effect of the price cut wasn’t as dramatic as I, or many others, had imagined (most likely due to the PS3 Slim not being officially released until the next set of figures), there was an effect, albeit not enough to unseat the Xbox 360 as the third most popular console in the US. This should happen next month. And I would say even if the price cut had not occurred, a new model would have driven PS3 sales over sales of the Xbox 360, so with the price cut, the effect should be even more dramatic. But it’s worth noting that there is a surge of sales for any new model (like what the DSi experienced only a couple of months ago), as people upgrade to the new model along with people getting into it for the first time. The surge, unfortunately, is only temporary, and so it will be a couple of months before we see the long term effects of these changes. In any case, change was needed and Sony brought about it at just the right time. I may be in the minority when I say this, but I am not really sure that a new slim model was really needed, unless of course it is the new model that allowed  Sony to reduce costs and cut prices. Yes, in the short term a new model helps, but in the long term, keeping with the existing PS3, but with a price cut, would yield the same benefits. And then given time and technological improvements, bringing out a PS3 Slim that’s really much much smaller would have made more sense, since the current PS3 Slim doesn’t reduce the footprint of the console by much. With its non glossy surface, and greater depth, the PS3 Slim feels “cheaper” than the PS3 Fat. But that’s just my opinion, and perhaps because I rate the look of the original PS3 higher than many others. I like glossy stuff, you see. In any case, Sony finally breaks the duck of having poorer monthly in every month of 2009 compared to the same month in 2008 – rising a healthy 14% compared to August 2008. No such luck for the PSP and the PS2, but with the new PSP Go coming soon and the PS2 nearing end of line, you can pretty much ignore these figures.

There wasn’t much time for Microsoft to respond following Sony’s price cut announcement, with the Xbox 360 price cut only happening when the month was practically over. But even then, it managed to outsell the PS3 for yet another month, but perhaps as I mentioned above, it will be the last time it does this for some time. The effect of the full price cut comes in next month, with Microsoft positioning the Xbox 360 Elite at the same price point as the PS3, it will be interesting to see if Microsoft can keep the third spot they’ve held on to for all of 2009. But as I said before, I don’t think so, because the short term effects of a new model should not be underestimated. Even a new SKU, like the Xbox 360 Arcade, can produce rather dramatic effects on sales, despite the actual console looking much the same and with no incentive for existing users to upgrade. Both

The Wii is this month’s loser again, dropping a massive 39% compared to the same time last month. In terms of history, it is sill doing quite well compared to consoles like the PS2, but it is quickly losing freshness, and perhaps a saturation point has been reached. Without hardcore gamers jumping on board, it may be difficult to maintain both hardware and software sales, evident in the Wii version of Madden NFL 10 not charting in the top 10, and even beaten handsomely by the PS2 version. And with Natal coming out on the Xbox 360, the “cool” factor will be shifting away from it starting next year when Natal is released, and even those who prefer a wii-mote like controller to the Natal’s controller-less interface, the PS3 motion controller will be taking customers away from the Wii. A price cut should help, but I don’t think price is the Wii’s major problem at this time. More fresh and innovative games and add-ons, like Wii Fit, should help, but just how many add-ons will the typical Wii user be willing to buy, especially when compared to Natal, the extra devices just feels a bit like Nintendo is only making up for the short comings of a system that still relies controller input. And with the PS3/Xbox 360 price cuts, the Wii could very well lose the number two position, and may even slip to fourth.

So onto software. To toot my own horn again, as predicted by yours truly, Madden NFL 10 topped this month’s charts, followed by Wii Sports Resort and Batman: Arkham Asylum. To be completely honest though, this was easy to predict based on last year’s figures for Madden, and a casual glance at the Amazon sales charts. There was a lot of talk during the month about the PS3 version of Batman: AA outselling the Xbox 360 version on Amazon, but Amazon is only one retailer, and it is not indicative of the general market condition. Still, the PS3 version did manage to sell on level terms with the Xbox 360, a trend that’s been happening more often lately, suggesting that for completely new games, the PS3 version will sell nearly on equal terms with the Xbox 360 version. But for franchise games like Madden, where people already have older versions on one particular console, loyalty and convenience may lock people to the console they’ve purchased older versions on if both versions are similar in quality, and so we may still see the larger gap between Xbox 360 and PS3 versions from time to time. And what might turn out to be a trend from now on is the fairly close gap between market share enjoyed by the three competing consoles – this time, the Xbox 360 came out ahead with 34.5% of all sales in the top 10, with the Wii on 28.1% and the PS3 on 26.8% (its best figures for some time). Wii Sports Resort is keeping the Wii in it, but while it had 1 more title in the top 10 compared to both the PS3 and the Xbox 360, the other two enjoyed much less sales than either Madden or Batman. In fact, as mentioned before, the Wii version of Madden was outsold by the PS2 version, in a time when it’s rare to see any PS2 titles in the top 10.

Here’s the complete list of the top 10 software sales:

1. Madden NFL 10 (Xbox 360, EA) – 928,000
2. Wii Sports Resort (Wii, Nintendo) – 754,000
3. Madden NFL 10 (PS3, EA) – 665,000
4. Batman: Arkham Asylum (Xbox 360, Eidos) – 303,000
5. Batman: Arkham Asylum (PS3, Eidos) – 290,000
6. Madden NFL 10 (PS2, EA) – 160,000
7. Dissidia: Final Fantasy (PSP, Square Enix) – 130,000
8. Wii Fit w/Board (Wii, Nintendo) – 128,000
9. Mario Kart w/ Wheel (Wii, Nintendo) – 120,000
10. Fossil Fighters (DS, Nintendo) – 92,000

Prediction time. I think I’ve made my prediction pretty clear throughout this article, with the PS3 hardware numbers receiving a noticeable boost. It could even be enough to unseat the Wii from the number two spot, although I think it unlikely (but not impossible) that it will outsell the DS. The Xbox 360 price cut should have some effect, and even it might outsell the Wii, however unlikely this scenario seemed just a few months ago. I haven’t really said much, have I? So for a concrete prediction, I would say the PS3 to outsell the Xbox 360 and the Wii, and the number three being contested between the Xbox 360 and the Wii (too close to call, at this point). The PSP Go is coming in October, so we won’t see the numbers until November. Halo 3: ODST should top the charts next month, followed by Wii Sports Resort. The Beatles game should sell well too, although the Wii SKU may outsell the PS3/Xbox 360 ones.  At least one SKU of Batman: AA should still chart, although whether it’s the Xbox 360 or the PS3 version is too close to call at the moment as well (Xbox 360 users will be fully occupied by Halo 3: ODST to think about buying other games, I feel).

See you next month.

The figures for US sales in July 2009 are below, ranked in order of number of sales (July 2008 figures also shown, including percentage change):

NPD July 2009 Game Console US Sales Figures

NPD Game Console Total US Sales Figures (as of July 2009)

My prediction from last month was:

I’m going to bet on a slight increase in Wii sales, but not enough to bring it back to the same levels from earlier this year. The software charts should see domination from the Wii MotionPlus enabled titles, notably Wii Sports Resort. NCAA Football should do well too, so it would be between these two titles that the number one spot is jostled for. Otherwise, business as usual, with an overall uplift as we get closer to the holiday period.

The sea of red you see above should give you clue as to how wrong I was. The only thing I got right was that Wii Sports Resort and NCAA Football would dominate, but there was no uplift for the Wii, and there was no general uplift either. To be fair, I came up with the above prediction based on the misreading of some stats, because July normally is worse than June, and traditionally, August is going to be even worse. It won’t be until September that we will see positive movement, and this is in a normal year where the economy isn’t a huge issue.

The biggest loser for July was the Wii. Recording a massive 55% drop in sales compared to the same month last year, and now only selling 50,000 more than the Xbox 360, perhaps it’s time Nintendo had a serious look at the pricing policy, because out of all the consoles, the Wii is still the one that has not had either a serious drop in price or an upgrade in terms of features of functionality.

The second biggest loser is the PS3. Now you should have heard by now all the PS3 Slim related rumours, and not only are Sony going to bring out a sexier console, they’re also going to drop prices (possibly by $100 and 100 Euros in the US/Europe). And if this is true (and I’m not going to fall for it until I read the PR release on Sony.com), then it couldn’t have come at a better time. Or rather, at a much more needed time. The PS3 is dying right now without a price cut, and even if they don’t bring out the Slim and simply bring out a cheaper SKU, then that will do wonders for it. Otherwise, it’s barely outselling the PS2, which I assume with Sony’s price cut and Slim announcement will mean it becomes an end-of-line product. And the new PSP is also coming at the right time, because it is also dying.

The DS and the Xbox 360 are the smallest losers, but still losers, for July. The DSi effect it wearing off and it won’t be too long before the DS is also seeing large drops in sales compared to the previous year. The only console to have held on so far this year has been the Xbox 360, and it was only a loser technically this month, a tiny 1% drop compared to July 2008. The price is right, with the Xbox 360 it seems, but with the cheaper PS3 possibly coming in September, Microsoft will have to think up something new to entice users, because there’s only so much it can do in terms of price cuts before they’ll be giving away the console for free. I believe their current plans are to phase out the Arcade model and replace it with the current Pro, making the Elite (120 GB Black version) the mainstream version, with a new Elite coming stuffed with more goodies (and eventually Natal). Will this work? Probably not as effective as Microsoft needs, because Sony has been adding features to the PS3 without much of an effect on sales. If anything, Microsoft needs a Xbox 360 Slim, because the PS3 needs a slim, quieter version much less so than the Xbox 360, notorious for it’s various hardware problems. Making a smaller, cooler (both in the temperature sense and The Fonz sense) and more reliable Xbox 360 will do wonders for the console, and it might actually be cheaper for Microsoft as they can move the CPU/GPU process to a more common one in-line with today’s technology. Then they can bring out Natal and get some of the Wii’s “wow” factor.

On to software. As expected, Wii Sports Resort was the month’s top selling title. Having played it for the last week, I like it more and more. Not so much the improved accuracy of the Wii-mote thanks to the Wii MotionPlus, but just the new collection of games that makes things a bit fresh as the original Wii Sports is getting a bit stale to be honest. NCAA Football again dominated, just like the same time last year, although both PS3 and Xbox 360 versions sold less than the same time last year, which is a worry considering 8 million more systems were sold between the 12 months. The economy is hitting hard on software, just as hard as it has been on hardware. There are a couple of DS games, plus Wii Fit and Mario Kart still in there (although Wii Play has disappeared for now). So on software terms, it was still a good month for Nintendo as they had 46.1% of the top 10 for the Wii alone (and another 17.5% for the DS). Microsoft was second with 24.6%, and PS3 had the single lone title in the top 10 with 11.8%.

Here’s the complete list of the top 10 software sales:

1. Wii Sports Resort (Wii, Nintendo) – 508,200
2. NCAA Football 10 (Xbox 360, EA) – 376,500
3. NCAA Football 10 (PS3, EA) – 237,400
4. Wii Fit w/Board (Wii, Nintendo) – 164,300
5. Mario Kart w/ Wheel (Wii, Nintendo) – 156,600
6. Mario Kart (DS, Nintendo) – 132,200
7. Pokemon Platinum (DS, Nintendo) – 116,400
8. Fight Night Round 4 (Xbox 360, EA) – 116,400
9. New Super Mario Bros. (DS, Nintendo) – 101,800
10. EA Sports Active (Wii, EA) – 96,800

So prediction time. By this time next month, we should have a good idea whether the PS3 Slim is fact or fiction (if I had to put money on it, I would say ‘fact’), as well as what price cuts there might be. The PS3 Slim, according to rumours, won’t be here until September anyway, so it won’t be before October (when I post the September NPD analysis) before we can see what effects it may have on sales. In the short term though, this could spell a sales drought for the PS3, unless Sony does some pre-emptive price drop for the older SKUs to get rid of stock. August is traditionally also a slow month, so I expect sales to drop further, or at best, stay the same with July levels. The same ordering as this month, most likely. Madden NFL 10 should dominate, along with Wii Sports Resort, and there might be a late month surge in Batman: Arkham Asylum sales.

See you next month.

The figures for US sales in June 2009 are below, ranked in order of number of sales (June 2008 figures also shown, including percentage change):

• DS: 766,500 (Total: 32.1 million; June 2008: 783,000 –down 2%)
• Wii: 361,700 (Total: 20.6 million; June 2008: 666,700 – down 57%)
• Xbox 360: 240,600 (Total: 15.5 million; June 2008: 219,800 – up 9%)
• PS3: 164,700 (Total: 7.9 million; June 2008: 405,500 - down 59%)
• PSP: 163,500 (Total: 15.3 million; June 2008: 337,400 – down 52%)
• PS2: 152,700 (Total: 44.2 million; June 2008: 188,800 – down 19%)

NPD June 2009 Game Console US Sales Figures

NPD Game Console Total US Sales Figures (as of June 2009)

My prediction from last month was:

So the prediction is the same as this month, with the PS3 numbers slightly higher still but maybe not high enough to beat the Xbox 360. I can see Prototype (the Xbox 360 version) being the top seller for the month, and it will be interesting to see how it stacks up against inFAMOUS which has received better review ratings (although the “100″ ratings given out by a few places are a bit over the top).

The PS3 numbers were higher, yes, but it wasn’t nearly enough to beat the Xbox 360. Prototype (as you will see below) was this month’s top seller, and it stacked up pretty well against inFAMOUS, which slipped all the way back to tenth. Had the game’s release been bought forward a few week, or pushed back to be released in June, then inFAMOUS may have even made a couple of spots higher in May, or even 2nd spot in June. Sony made the same mistake with Killzone 2. And yes, the “10″ ratings is still over the top for what is a very good game, but not “perfect”.

While we’re talking about Sony, let’s look at their figures. Again, and continuing the trend since November of last year (that’s 8 months in a row, for those that are counting), all three PlayStation platforms undersold the same month a year ago. The economy (combined with Sony’s phobia of a price drop) has a lot to do with it, but that’s mainly the PS3 – Nintendo and Microsoft have been able to get year-on-year increases from time to time. The PSP Go won’t be released until October, which may be the first chance that Sony will get to break this trend of year-on-year shrinkage. But the PS2 has definitely had its time and official retirement can’t come sooner. Maybe when it is officially gone, Sony can concentrate fully on the PS3 and we’ll finally see a price cut. The PS3 Slim? I’ll believe it when I see it for pre-order on Amazon.

Nintendo’s DS (or DSi, to be more precise), it selling well, which bodes well for Sony’s PSP Go when it finally gets released in October – and the DSi isn’t even a brand new system, just an update. The Wii, however, is struggling a bit. By struggling, it still managed to easily beat the Xbox 360 and the PS3, but next month’s Wii MotionPlus plus the MotionPlus enable games such as Wii Sports Resort and EA Tennis, should maybe give the Wii a slight bounce. But a bounce might not occur at all, as the Wii’s extraordinary sales record may be to blame – has everyone who wants a Wii got one already? The saturation point may have been reached.

So the only people happy this month are Microsoft, with the Xbox 360 recording yet another year-on-year growth, and no price cut this month either.  9% growth isn’t something to be sneezed at, not for this year, and it shows that Microsoft has been shrewd in its price cutting strategy, as well as the wooing of game developers that has been a core strategy since inception. Just count the number of PlayStation exclusives that are no longer, and then count the reverse, and you can see why the Xbox 360 is winning against the PS3 (for now, at least). To read an interview in which Microsoft’s joy is revealed, click here. And with Natal coming next year, the momentum is there for the Xbox 360. The only thing it has to fear, and no it’s not fear itself, but rather a largish PS3 price cut. But Sony are doing all they can to help Microsoft on this front, so who says that friendly competition no longer exists in today’s world. Make that really really friendly competition.

Onto software. More good news for Microsoft, relatively good news (and some bad ones) for Nintendo, and the same story for the PS3. As predicted my yours truly, Prototype for the Xbox 360 was this month’s number one title. Last month’s number one, UFC 2009: Undisputed for the Xbox 360, managed to hold on to the number two spot. And yet, there were still room for two more Xbox 360 titles, Fight Night Round 4 and Red Faction: Guerrilla. For the Wii, the EA Sports Active Bundle continues to sell well, just slightly above the Wii MotionPlus enabled Tiger Woods PGA Tour 10 (a good preview for what will happen next month, when the Wii Sports Resort gets released bundled with the MotionPlus, and this could spur on sales for Tiger Woods 10 and EA’s Grand Slam Tennis). Wii Fit and Mario Kart round out the Wii top 10’s, but what’s missing is what is interesting: no Wii Play for the first time since, forever (well February 2007 anyway). Maybe time for a new Wii Play bundle that includes the MotionPlus?

And so onto the PS3. Well, Prototype, June’s top hit, was not a hit on the PS3 and I think we all know why: inFAMOUS. Activision will not be happy, but it was just too much asking gamers to buy both the exclusive (and better rated) inFAMOUS and Prototype being so close to each other’s release dates. No wonder Activision threatened to pull support for the PS3 just last month. Prototype was 13th on the top 20 list, 3 places behind inFAMOUS. inFamous should have done much better than it did, for a critically acclaimed exclusive, but just how many PS3 owners are hard core gamers is not an easy question to answer. Certainly less so than the ratio of hardcore versus casual gamers for the PS2 (and the Xbox 360. But that’s partly because the PS3 can do so much, if you want to provide a bit of damning by faint praise. The PS3’s only other top 10 entry was Fight Night Round 4, which gave it at least some good news because it sold very close to the Xbox 360 version, despite the 360’s 2:1 hardware ratio over the PS3. So maybe that hardcore gamer ratio isn’t so bad after all. Overall, the Xbox 360 had 45.9% of the top 10, the Wii had 38.9% and the PS3 had 15.2%. Here’s the complete list of the top 10 software sales:

1. Prototype (Xbox 360, Activision) – 419,900
2. UFC 2009 Undisputed (Xbox 360, THQ) – 338,300
3. EA Sports Active (Wii, EA) – 289,100
4. Tiger Woods PGA Tour 10 (Wii, EA) – 272,400
5. Wii Fit w/Board (Wii, Nintendo) – 271,600
6. Fight Night Round 4 (Xbox 360, EA) – 260,800
7. Fight Night Round 4 (PS3, EA) – 210,300
8. Mario Kart w/ Wheel (Wii, Nintendo) – 202,100
9. Red Faction: Guerrilla (Xbox 360, EA) – 199,400
10. inFAMOUS (PS3, Sony) – 192,700

So what will July bring? More of the same, or will be see a Wii bounce? I’m going to bet on a slight increase in Wii sales, but not enough to bring it back to the same levels from earlier this year. The software charts should see domination from the Wii MotionPlus enabled titles, notably Wii Sports Resort. NCAA Football should do well too, so it would be between these two titles that the number one spot is jostled for. Otherwise, business as usual, with an overall uplift as we get closer to the holiday period.

See you next month.

The figures for US sales in May 2009 are below, ranked in order of number of sales (May 2008 figures also shown, including percentage change):

• DS: 633,500 (Total: 31.4 million; May 2008: 452,600 – up 40%)
• Wii: 289,500 (Total: 20.2 million; May 2008: 675,100 – down 57%)
• Xbox 360: 175,000 (Total: 15.2 million; May 2008: 186,600 – down 6%)
• PS3: 131,000 (Total: 7.7 million; May 2008: 208,700 - down 37%)
• PS2: 117,000 (Total: 44.1 million; May 2008: 132,700 – down 12%)
• PSP: 100,400 (Total: 15.2 million; May 2008: 182,300 – down 45%)

NPD May 2009 Game Console US Sales Figures

NPD Game Console Total US Sales Figures (as of May 2009)

My prediction from last month was:

Can a recovery take place in May? Looking at the Amazon top 10 charts now, it doesn’t look like a great month for games. PS3’s exclusive Infamous might make a dent, but it may come too late in May to make a huge difference to May’s figures. I’m going to predict a slight recovery for the PS3, as PS2 sales will start to drop again following the price cut, and PS3 has nowhere to go but up, especially if Infamous can help to lift sales up. Everything else the same as it was this month, I suppose.

I’m not often right. In fact, it almost never happens. But I think I was pretty spot on with my prediction. The PS3 did lift in sales, whether that’s down to inFAMOUS or not is hard to say but inFAMOUS did make the top 10. The PS2 did drop in sales as the expected boost given by the price drop deteriorated rather quickly. Everything else remains in a similar situation, with the DS down but still top, as the fever over the new DSi fades.

Having a look at the year on year comparison figures above (mostly in red), it was again a “bad” month if you do a straight comparison with the same time last year. But this is extremely misleading because May 2008 was a very good month for video games, despite May being a traditionally poor month for sales – GTA IV was still a hot item back then for one. So forgetting about the year to year figures, May 2009 was still a relatively poor month. DS sales remain strong thanks to the DSi, but having dropped by almost half compared to last month, sales will be back to “normal” in no time. Wii sales have started to behave much more like the other consoles, dropping with them and rising with them – the Wii had up until now performed miracles in sales that seemed to have made it immune to economic pressures and the fact that it’s not a new console anymore. But Nintendo will be happy with the software figures, as you’ll see later on.

Another very ‘meh’ month for Sony. PS3 sales improved, but it was still behind the Xbox 360 despite the PS3 getting the highly rated exclusive inFAMOUS. The software figures for inFAMOUS may have been affected by the limited release time it had in May, but hardware sale increases usually precede a popular title as people anticipate the release, and this could explain partly why the PS3 did increase in sales from the previous month – the only console to do so this month. But the amount of increase was not big enough, neither were the sales numbers for inFAMOUS. The PS2 got a reprieve last month thanks to price drops, but it continues on its road to oblivion this month. Sony should really just give up on this console already. Sony announced a new PSP console at E3, and this will drive up sales when it is released later in the year, but for now, the PSP has nowhere to go really as people wait for the new version (although price drops for the older model may help to spur sales in the coming months).

And finally onto Microsoft, who had a good E3 thanks to Project Natal (and the subsequent press coverage, including the live demo on Late Night with Jimmy Fallon).  But there were no exclusives, or price drops, and so nothing much changed for this month. In fact, sales were exactly the same as last month. But out of all the consoles that experienced year to year drops (that is, all except for the DS, but it doesn’t count because of the DSi), it experienced the least amount of decrease.

Let’s get to software. As mentioned earlier, Nintendo had reason to not be so worried about Wii hardware sales, because Wii software sales are still strong. Half of the top 10 were Wii games, with another DS game thrown in for good measure. And the better news is that two of the top selling Wii games were new to the list, EA Sports Active and Punch Out! – this is one area Nintendo wanted improvement on, as opposed to relying on the trifecta of Wii Play, Mario Kart and Wii Fit all the time. Microsoft should be fairly pleased as well, taking the number one spot for the second time this year, with the multi-platform UFC 2009. Sony would have wanted inFAMOUS to be higher up than 5th and selling only a third of the number one game of the month (which wasn’t even an exclusive). I will again point out that it was released too late in the months to make huge dent (why does Sony always do this?), but most sales happen in the first week and 175,900 is disappointing considering Killzone 2 got almost double this and the fact that it was an exclusive. I find it hard to believe that out of the nearly 8 million PS3 owners in the US, only such a small percentage decided to buy this highly rated and hyped game at release. And it’s not just the price though, because so many more wanted to by UFC 2009 on the PS3. Overall, the Wii had 43.2% of the top 10, the Xbox 360 had 30.8% and the PS3 had 19.6%. Here’s the complete list of the top 10 software sales:

1. UFC 2009 Undisputed (Xbox 360, THQ) – 679,600
2. Wii Fit w/Board (Wii, Nintendo) – 352,800
3. EA Sports Active (Wii, EA) – 345,800
4. UFC 2009 Undisputed (PS3, THQ) – 334,400
5. inFAMOUS (PS3, Sony) – 175,900
6. Pokemon Platinum (DS, Nintendo) – 168,900
7. Mario Kart w/ Wheel (Wii, Nintendo) – 158,300
8. Punch Out! (Wii, Nintendo) – 156,900
9. X-Men Origins: Wolverine Uncaged (Xbox 360, Activision) – 120,700
10. Wii Play w/ Remote (Wii, Nintendo) – 109,800

June is hard to predict. There should be an increase in sales from a seasonal point of view. Plus, there is also the release of Prototyped (think inFAMOUS but multi-platform, and much more exaggerated) and the Ghostbusters video game, and with inFAMOUS continue to be the top PS3 seller, it should all point to a better month. I don’t know if the E3 announcements will have any effect on sales, but most of the announcements aren’t for immediate product releases (apart from Nintendo’s Wii Motion Plus, but the Wii Sports Resort game which takes advantage of it doesn’t come out until July), so I don’t think there will be a huge effect, if any. So the prediction is the same as this month, with the PS3 numbers slightly higher still but maybe not high enough to beat the Xbox 360. I can see Prototype (the Xbox 360 version) being the top seller for the month, and it will be interesting to see how it stacks up against inFAMOUS which has received better review ratings (although the “100″ ratings given out by a few places are a bit over the top).

See you next month.

The figures for US sales in April 2009 are below, ranked in order of number of sales (April 2008 figures also shown, including percentage change):

NPD April 2009 Game Console US Sales Figures

NPD Game Console Total US Sales Figures (as of April 2009)

My prediction from last month was:

I have no idea what’s on sale next month. I could check, but I’m lazy. Suffice to say, I don’t expect the situation to change much, although hardware sales could improve. Can the PS3 outsell it’s 2008 self? I’m going to say yes again to that, even though I was wrong last month. This is because April 2008 was a bad month for the PS3, the first signs that it wasn’t going to beat the 360 in 2008 like the first few months had promised. Sony will hope April 2009 will be a better month.

I was right. I was lazy and I should have checked. No, the PS3 once again did not out-sell its 2008 self. It didn’t even manage to outsell the PS2 this month. And the situation has changed, because everything is down, apart from the DS and the PS2.

Starting with what little good news we have this month. The DS did manage to outsell its 2008 self, but only because a new DS, the DSi, was released. But still, a 150% increase is impressive regardless of the reason behind it. The PS2 is the only other console to have increased in sales compared to the April 2008 figures. This I think is largely down to the recent price drop announced by Sony. If a small price drop for such an old console can show this kind of result, imagine what a price drop can do for a PS3? The rumours of a new PS3 “slim” with a lower price due to a cheaper manufacturing process may explain why Sony is reluctant to drop PS3 prices for now, and reports show that the PS3 is currently losing around $40 per console sold, and Sony can’t afford to increase its losses this financial year.

On to the bad news. The least bad this month is the Xbox 360 sales figures, which only dropped *only* 7% compared to last year, although it still meant a 47% month-to-month drop for the console. But compared to all the other consoles, it did well. The low price of the Xbox 360 may have something to do with this. The Wii, PSP and PS3 all recorded dismal efforts, falling both in month-to-month and year-to-year comparisons. The fact that the PS3 was outsold by the PS2 should ring alarm bells at Sony HQ. The Wii’s good run seems to have come to an end, although it was still comfortable the best selling non portable console. The PSP is going nowhere. Fast.

But to put everything in perspective, April 2008 was a good month for software at least, due to the release of GTA IV and Mario Kart for the Wii. So let’s not over analyse the April 2008 to 2009 comparison. April 2009 is a bad month, but it’s not as bad as it looks. 

Software wise, again due to April 2008 being a huge month, there is an overall drop in sales. In the top 10, Wii comfortably held the most market share, followed far behind by the Xbox 360, and the PS3 even further behind. Nintendo’s usual suspects, Wii Fit, Wii Play and Mario Kart, were responsible for this, and the only Wii titles in the top 10. Where are the third party titles, you have to wonder. April wasn’t a great months for hit releases either, with the sequel “The Godfather II” being the only notable release. It was the top selling Xbox 360 game, and outsold the PS3 version by 1.7:1 (the PS3 version was the top selling PS3 game, coming at 10th on the top 10 list). Resident Evil 5 for the Xbox 360 was again in the top 5, just behind The Godfather II – it’s strange to see an iconic PlayStation title doing much better on the Xbox 360 than on the PS3. RE5 on the 360 outsold the PS3 version by 1.6:1 last month, although the 360 enjoys a 2:1 lead over the PS3 in hardware numbers. This means, at least for the hit games, the PS3 is doing better than expected, which is some good news at last for Sony. The Wii had 42.7% of the top 10, Xbox 360 on 19.4% and the PS3 with only 4.6%. The rest, 33.3%, belonged to the DS, making April 2009 definitely one to remember for the portable console. Here’s the complete list of the top 10 software sales:

1. Wii Fit w/Board (Wii, Nintendo) – 471,000
2. Pokemon Platinum (DS, Nintendo) – 433,000
3. Mario Kart w/ Wheel (Wii, Nintendo) – 210,000
   
4. Wii Play w/ Remote (Wii, Nintendo) – 170,000
5. The Godfather II (Xbox 360, EA) – 155,000
6. Resident Evil 5 (Xbox 360, Capcom) – 122,000
   
7. New Super Mario Bros. (DS, Nintendo) – 119,000 
8. Mario Kart (DS, Nintendo) – 112,000
9. Guitar Hero Aerosmith (Xbox 360, Activision) – 110,000
10. The Godfather II (PS3, EA) – 91,000

Can a recovery take place in May? Looking at the Amazon top 10 charts now, it doesn’t look like a great month for games. PS3’s exclusive Infamous might make a dent, but it may come too late in May to make a huge difference to May’s figures. I’m going to predict a slight recovery for the PS3, as PS2 sales will start to drop again following the price cut, and PS3 has nowhere to go but up, especially if Infamous can help to lift sales up. Everything else the same as it was this month, I suppose.

See you next month.

The figures for US sales in March 2009 are below, ranked in order of number of sales (March 2008  figures also shown, including percentage change):

NPD March 2009 Game Console US Sales Figures

NPD Game Console Total US Sales Figures (as of March 2009)

My prediction from last month was:

My prediction for March 2009 would be that PS3 sales finally beat the 2008 equivalent, thanks largely to Killzone 2 and RE5 (March 2008 was also a very slow month). The ordering of the hardware sales would still remain the same though, as RE5 is no longer platform exclusive for the first time. It will be interesting on the software front, because you would imagine RE5 selling better on the 360, although perhaps only by the same margin as SFIV, and Killzone 2 should do better than the averagely rated (relatively speaking) Halo Wars. 

Well I did get one thing right, which was that the order of the hardware numbers would remain the same. Unfortunately, every other piece of prediction was incorrect (although RE5 did sell better on the 360). My first prediction of the PS3 finally beating its 2008 numbers was sadly incorrect. In fact, none of the consoles did better than in 2008, except for the Xbox 360. All the red you see from the numbers above makes bad reading for the industry. Only Microsoft will be happy, but for how long? For the software predictions, I will take about them later.

The PlayStation numbers look worse and worse. Not just the PS3, but also the PSP and PS2. It seems the PS brand is no longer capturing the imaginations of users, largely thanks to the innovative Wii, but I think the main issue is still price. Price is an issue highlighted very strongly this month. It is no wonder that the cheapest non-portable console, the Xbox 360, was the best selling and the only one to have year-on-year growth. Even in the portable arena, the cheaper Nintendo DS continues to soundly beat the more expensive and technically superior PSP – the PSP in particular seems to have peaked in sales and has allowed the Nintendo DS to completely dominate the portable market thanks to its broad spectrum marketing plans that target children of all ages and sexes, as opposed to the “typical” PlayStation user. The one bright spot, if you can call it that, is that out of all the drops, the PS3 dropped the least.

The Nintendo consoles had an unexpected drop in sales as well, year-on-year. To be fair, nobody expected their surge in sales to last so long – the numbers will have to drop because they have nowhere else to go, not for so long anyway. It will be interesting to see next month if this was a blip (or if the whole month of March was a blip), or a new trend that’s emerging.

Microsoft will be happy with the numbers again. 2009 has proved to be a good year so far, at least if the goal is to cement second place in the console wars. The Xbox 360 numbers are very encouraging thank to the year-on-year growth, and I think its status as the cheapest video game console on the market is finally paying dividends. Remember, this follows on from last month where it also had a sales surge (up 54% year-on-year – the biggest out of all consoles), and although it appears strange since nothing new has actually happened on pricing or bundling front, perhaps it’s just a case of the economy finally forcing people to buy the cheapest console, rather than the one that really want (Wii). I don’t think the people forced to do this will be entirely unhappy with their decision though, because value wise, the Xbox 360 is fantastic. And anyone that classify themselves more than just casual gamers will appreciate the range of games on the 360 as compared to the Wii.

Software was a different situation, where March was actually quite a good month. Not as good as March 2008, but it had Super Smash Bros. Brawl that inflated the overall sales by selling 2.7 million – this month’s top selling game didn’t even break a million. But overall, it looks more positive than last month. As for my predictions from the last month, RE5 did sell better on the 360 over the PS3, but I was expecting SF IV type numbers (neck and neck between PS3 and 360), but it turned out to be more GTA IV (2-to-1 in favour of the 360). I was also wrong to say that Halo Wars would sell less well than Killzone 2, despite the former’s poorer rating. I guess franchaises sell, and Halo is bigger than Killzone. And it looks like the decision to release Killzone 2 in late February, as opposed to delaying the release date to the March reporting period, may have hurt Sony’s chances to grab more software market share. Killzone 2’s March sales was almost as well as February’s, but had they been combined, it would have taken it maybe to 3rd spot, just above Halo Wars (probably just short of it though). Instead, it’s 5th and 7th result, while still respectable compared to other PS3 titles in the past, looks pretty average when compared to the pretty average Halo Wars (scored only 82 on Metacritics, while Killzone 2 was  at a high 92). And while I casually mentioned the first GTA game on the DS last month, it didn’t even make the top 10, which perhaps shows that the DS does not have the same demographic as your typical GTA lover, further proven by the fact that a Pokemon game was number 2 on the chart. I wonder how well GTA would have done if it was a PSP exclusive?

Microsoft’s recent resurgence sees them take top spot in sales, as well as being the most popular console in the top 10 with 36.5% of all sales in the top 10 belonging to the platform. Sony held on to second place with 3 titles in the top 10 (a record?), and 24.3% of the market share. Nintendo is the loser this month with 22.6%, down from the 50% average they’ve been achieving in the last 4 months. You do wonder how long before Wii Fit, Wii Play and Mario Kart are no longer automatic entries in the top 10. Here’s the complete list of the top 10 software sales:

1. Resident Evil 5 (Xbox 360, Capcom) – 938,000
2. Pokemon Platinum (DS, Nintendo) – 805,000
3. Halo Wars (Xbox 360, Microsoft) – 639,000
4. Resident Evil 5 (PS3, Capcom) – 585,000
5. Wii Fit w/Board (Wii, Nintendo) – 541,000 
6. MLB ‘09: The Show (PS3, Sony) – 305,000  
7. Killzone 2 (PS3, Sony) – 296,000
8. Wii Play w/ Remote (Wii, Nintendo) – 281,000
9. Mario Kart w/ Wheel (Wii, Nintendo) – 278,000
10. MLB 2K9 (Xbox 360, Take-Two) – 205,000

I have no idea what’s on sale next month. I could check, but I’m lazy. Suffice to say, I don’t expect the situation to change much, although hardware sales could improve. Can the PS3 outsell it’s 2008 self? I’m going to say yes again to that, even though I was wrong last month. This is because April 2008 was a bad month for the PS3, the first signs that it wasn’t going to beat the 360 in 2008 like the first few months had promised. Sony will hope April 2009 will be a better month.

See you next month.

The figures for US sales in February 2009 are below, ranked in order of number of sales (February 2008  figures also shown, including percentage change):

NPD February 2009 Game Console US Sales Figures

NPD Game Console Total US Sales Figures (as of February 2009)

My prediction from last month was:

So my prediction would be a slight increase in PS3 sales, with lesser increases for the Wii and Xbox 360, but with the ordering of consoles remaining largely unchanged. It’s unlikely that the PS3 will outsell the same time last year, but it may have better luck in March when Killzone 2 may help in terms of hardware numbers (it’s late release in February won’t affect that month’s figures).  

I think I was largely right. In fact, I think I was spot on with pretty much everything. PS3 sales did increase, and it did increase more so than the Wii and Xbox 360, but not enough to change the ordering. And I was almost wrong on the “PS3 won’t outsell same time last year” statement, but almost wrong still means I was right. As you will see from the software figures, Killzone 2 did “kill”, but it wasn’t enough to give the hardware numbers a boost.

And while Sony were so close to breaking their bad luck streak in terms of hardware underselling compared to last year, all three PlayStation consoles again recorded sales drops compared to the same time last year. Both Nintendo and Microsoft again also managed to outsell the same period last year, with the Xbox 360 recording a huge jump and its best “non-holiday” sales since the release of Halo 3 (despite having no A-list exclusives this month). The PS3 was so close to outselling February 2008, and I think had Killzone 2 been released a week earlier in February (it was released on February 27), then the PS3 would have done it. But as they say, timing is everything and with Killzone 2 straddling between two months, it might just distribute sales enough where neither February nor March will mean good enough numbers for the PS3 for it to outsell 2008.

The PS2 is clearly on its last legs, and the PSP’s momentum has stalled, so Sony has to put everything into the PS3 now as it no longer has any other options. And the decisi0n to release Killzone 2 so close to the end of the reporting period may have hurt the chance of adding a number 1 title to the PS3’s list of achievements (or is that Trophies?), even if it meant taking a hit in Febuary. And Killzone 2 further highlights why high hardware prices are a bad idea, because can you imagine this title not being number 1 if it had been released on the Xbox 360 or the Wii? Sony’s insistence on high hardware prices has meant that they have missed out on a lot of revenue from their high profile release (such as Killzone 2, and LittleBigPlanet, as well as multi-platform releases such as GTA IV) – I don’t have access to Sony’s accounts, but can the extra loss in hardware revenue from faster price drops be offset by the extra gains in software revenue (thanks to the superior number of hardware in people’s homes)? And would this have meant that the total loss in revenue would have been  manageable enough and much more sensible from a mid term perspective? But only Sony knows what they can and cannot afford to do.

The sales surge for the Xbox 360 is hard to explain. There were no price drops, no hit releases (exclusive or otherwise, Street Fighter IV included), and nothing that would suggest an increase was on the cards. Perhaps its status as the cheapest console on the market is finally providing dividends as the economic situation worsens. The Wii and the Nintendo brand contines its march towards total domination of this game console generation. 

Let’s get to the software charts. This is at least one area that will give Sony a much needed boost, because the PS3 top 10 sales finally managed to beat the Xbox 360 sales. Neither got near the Nintendo numbers, of course, but it just shows what a critics favourite like Killzone 2 can do for software sales. Another bit of good news is that despite 2:1 hardware advantage for the Xbox 360, the multi-platform Street Fighter IV managed to sell practically even for both the 360 and PS3. This either means that PS3 owners loved SFIV more than Xbox 360 owners, or that at least on the software front, Microsoft is about to lose its status as the console with the best software sales ratio. Killzone 2, as mentioned earlier, did quite well but not enough to seriously challenge Wii Fit/Play, nor SFIV. So good news for Sony as they 23.6% of the market, which beat Microsoft’s 20.7%. All the Nintendo “must-have” releases are still on the list, for both the Wii and DS, so they took nearly 56% of the top 10. Here’s the complete list of the top 10 software sales:

1. Wii Fit w/Board (Wii, Nintendo) – 644,000   
2. Street Fighter IV (Xbox 360, Capcom) – 446,000
   
3. Street Fighter IV (PS3, Capcom) – 403,000
4. Wii Play w/ Remote (Wii, Nintendo) – 386,000
5. Killzone 2 (PS3, Sony) – 323,000
6. Mario Kart w/ Wheel (Wii, Nintendo) – 263,000
7. Call of Duty: World at War (Xbox 360, Activision Blizzard) – 193,000
8. Mario Kart (DS, Nintendo) – 145,000
9. New Super Mario Bros. (DS, Nintendo) – 144,000 
10. Guitar Hero: World Tour (Wii, Activision Blizzard) – 136,000

Next month should be a big one for software sales, as Resident Evil 5, Halo Wars, and GTA: Chinatown Wars all make their way onto their respective consoles. There is also the left over sales from Killzone 2, and any hardware effects that may show up. My prediction for March 2009 would be that PS3 sales finally beat the 2008 equivalent, thanks largely to Killzone 2 and RE5 (March 2008 was also a very slow month). The ordering of the hardware sales would still remain the same though, as RE5 is no longer platform exclusive for the first time. It will be interesting on the software front, because you would imagine RE5 selling better on the 360, although perhaps only by the same margin as SFIV, and Killzone 2 should do better than the averagely rated (relatively speaking) Halo Wars. 

See you next month.

The figures for US sales in January are below, ranked in order of number of sales (January 2008  figures also shown, including percentage change):

NPD January 2009 Game Console US Sales Figures

NPD Game Console Total US Sales Figures (as of January 2009)

My prediction from last month was:

Next month will see a huge drop in terms of sales, which is part of the usual cycle. Stock availability could affect sales, and usually the better selling consoles will do worse in January compared to the lower selling ones that still have plenty of stock left. So if Wii, DS and Xbox 360 sales struggle, while PS3 sales improve in comparison despite no popular new games or price cuts, then this is one possible explanation. 

The reality pretty much panned out the same as the prediction, except stock shortages weren’t really an issue, unlike January 2008 (for the Wii, and at least according to Microsoft, for the 360 as well). This helped push the Wii, DS and Xbox 360 up compared to the same time last year, with Nintendo yet again able to pull of amazing 100%+ increases. The Xbox 360’s 34% surge, while less impressive, has establishes the console as the third most popular of all gaming systems in the US.

Again, it’s a month of “reds” for the PlayStation brand, with drops across the board. The PS2 aside, whose drop is understandable, the PS3 and PSP figures are obviously disappointing. The drop for the PS3 figures almost exactly matches up to the increase in Xbox 360 numbers, not saying that both are related, but that’s the obvious connection people will make. The PSP, at times competitive with the DS, is now completely outclassed. Sony might need to cut PS3 prices now not only to save the PS3, but also to save the PSP, which had a period of success last year when PSP integration features were improved on the PS3. I think there’s been enough said on what Sony need to do, and it’s quite obvious, but whether they can afford to do it or not, that’s another question. But it’s getting to the point where Sony can no longer not afford some actions, not if they want to ensure the PlayStation brand is the leader in gaming (probably too late for it this generation, but at the very least, ensure it’s not in last place).

Without stock shortages, both the Wii and Xbox 360 managed to sell in greater numbers than the same time last year, the Wii in particular. It is worth noting that none of the top 3 consoles, the Wii, DS and 360, have shown any signs of suffering from the economic meltdown that’s starting to affect almost all other businesses. It is also no surprise to find that these 3 consoles are the cheaper ones on the market, both by actual cost and long term value (availability of low cost games, etc.).  The Wii still hasn’t had (or needed) a price drop, even after 2 years of sales, and does not appear to need many new ‘must-have’ titles to maintain the momentum (if anything, it’s picked up). This makes the Wii very unique in terms of video game consoles, and probably electronic devices in general. The lower cost of making more and more Wiis will help Nintendo realise a profit even without having to sell any games, which again is unheard of in the video gaming industry.

Okay, enough with the Nintendo love-in. Let’s have a look at the software. Which means the love-in will have to continue, I guess. One of the best, if not the best, month for Nintendo as Fit, Play and Kart again dominated the software charts. The Xbox 360 took the next 3 spots – the charting Xbox 360 titles will usually point to the month’s newly released, and popular, multi-platform titles (or in the absence of such titles, last month’s new hit releases). Two Nintendo DS titles made it into the top 10, including a new Mario game which will always sell well (and brings backs some old memories), and also oddly the very old Mario Kart game again (is it becoming the “Wii Play” for the DS?). The last spot was taken by the Xbox 360 again. Nothing for the PS3, in fact, nothing other than one single entry for the PlayStation brand in the top 20 (that was for Call of Duty: World at War for the PS3 coming at 11). It seems that the better Nintendo does, the poorer Sony becomes, while Microsoft sells the most games to “hardcore” gamers. 61% of all games sold in the top 10 were for the Wii, 29% for the Xbox 360 and 10% for the DS. Sony gets a big fat zero for the first time since I’ve started tracking software numbers (since January 2008). Here’s the complete list of the top 10 software sales:

1. Wii Fit w/Board (Wii, Nintendo) – 777,000   
2. Wii Play w/ Remote (Wii, Nintendo) – 415,000
3. Mario Kart w/ Wheel (Wii, Nintendo) – 292,000
4. Left 4 Dead (Xbox 360, Electronic Arts) – 243,000
5. Call of Duty: World at War (Xbox 360, Activision Blizzard) – 235,000
6. Skate 2 (Xbox 360, Electronic Arts) – 199,000
7. Guitar Hero: World Tour (Wii, Activision Blizzard) – 155,000
   
8. New Super Mario Bros. (DS, Nintendo) – 135,000 
9. Mario Kart (DS, Nintendo) – 132,000
   
10. Lord of the Rings: Conquest (Xbox 360, Electronic Arts) – 113,000

If last year’s stats are to be believed, then sales should pick up a bit for all concerned, but with stock shortages affecting figures last year and nothing like this right now, this might ring more true for the PS3 than the Wii/360. So my prediction would be a slight increase in PS3 sales, with lesser increases for the Wii and Xbox 360, but with the ordering of consoles remaining largely unchanged. It’s unlikely that the PS3 will outsell the same time last year, but it may have better luck in March when Killzone 2 may help in terms of hardware numbers (it’s late release in February won’t affect that month’s figures).  

See you next month.